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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    Nothing personal but I just can’t agree with the let’s let younger guys go or guys that have underperformed in a situation, to see what happens. To me that’s just wish thinking and reckless. Maybe Ozk if it’s a 5th OF once or twice a week. Do those two corner guys deserve some more AB’s v. LH pitching - yes! Can the Team play them together and “see what happens” - seems like a huge roll of the dice. Larnach gets nicked too often, historically, and Wallner had some back issues last year, so having a real offensive option to rotate with these two and add needed depth seems prudent!
  2. JD-TWINS
    So, if the Team decides to stick with the arms they have (maybe trade 2-4 but don’t acquire any) and they stick with Larnach - Martin - Buxton - Kiersey - Wallner ………..they could make some trades/moves that could end desperation at 2B & upgrade offense……..Luis could be part of that scheme. Trade Castro - Paddack - Matthews - Jeffers to San Diego for the young Catcher & Arraez. This would give San Diego a solid 2nd Catching option with a decent bat OR a trade piece to someone else, acquiring Jeffers. Twins acquire Maille of Reds as a FA for $2.5M (or like). Also, SD picks up a present arm option and a probable future arm option. They get Castro to help fill behind losing Kim and Profar, etc. Twins develop young catcher & they add Arraez as a guy that can play 2B if nobody else can hit - maybe a bridge to Keaschall or Lee? Also, he can play 1B daily if Miranda needs a break or is injured. DH maybe 30-40% of the time. Twins free up $18.5M in trade and then spend $14.5 & $2.5 to fill the Catcher spot and pay Luis. Seems Arraez won’t make much more than the arbitration number of $14.5M, ever ……..is he worth 145 games of consistent performance at the plate with right side defense and little L/R weakness v. opposing pitchers. Probably better off keeping Jeffers and moving Vazquez, maybe elsewhere, even if they have to pay $3-$5M of his salary. Basic line-up: Arraez - Lewis - Larnach - Correa - Wallner - Buxton - Miranda - Lee - Catcher I’d prefer they trade for a young 1B that can hit OR similar profile Catcher & stay away from FA but not sure this is realistic?
  3. JD-TWINS
    Tough to see any position guys fitting the 26-man no matter what the upside. Can’t be a short, low average first baseman or some Catcher that needs to be developed - can’t roster a non-contributor or weak link IF trying to contend. The PEN seems filled at this point - a Rule 5 guy would just displace Tonkin or somehow delay using Varland in the Pen. I know the occasional success story makes this option intriguing. To me, the Rule 5 fits a Team that isn’t expecting to be in the playoff mix & they can absorb some weak short-term performances with the future in mind.
  4. JD-TWINS
    Gotta keep Ober! Ryan is too affordable and effective as well - health? Nobody is trading for a guy that’s not healthy. I’d add Matthews - Henriquez - C. Lewis - into the mix with positional guys on list above to get trade partners to take action. These individuals don’t help with salary relief but they make moving $$ guys easier if combined in a trade. Correa isn’t going anywhere. Royce Lewis needs a full season at Target before any thoughts of him being traded are put in motion. One of the Catchers (probably Jeffers) should be moved with another couple pieces (Castro - Matthews) to bring back a young Catcher that can play. Hard to see upside in trading Vazquez and then having to pay 50% of his salary as well. I’m sure there’s a way along with another piece or two to lower or eliminate the $$ outlay, but pretty difficult to assume how it may work.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Camargo hit .212 in St Paul - he had a .290 something OBP…….he makes Vazquez’ offense look like Yogi Berra. He didn’t play because he’s not a great receiver and he can’t hit. Any sensible MLB Manager would not play him unless forced into it due to unfortunate circumstance. The fact that the Twins have no apparent Catcher with upside in their system is hard to imagine. Olivera plays Catcher & OF……doesn’t seem to be a great option either. This is a draft and development issue……nothing to do with the Manager. It’s a shame for sure! I’d try to lump Jeffers in a trade with an arm or two in order to get back a solid young Catcher. Need to find a trade partner that’s competitive and would value the addition of Jeffers along with pitching g help (Paddack - Matthews - whoever)
  6. JD-TWINS
    Trade a Veteran catcher to a contender for a young guy that’s ready to play 60 games in ‘25. IMO, either Vazquez or Jeffers could catch 100 games reasonably well. OR, trade one of our Catchers, plus a couple arms for a reasonably established catcher and keep splitting duties 50/50.
  7. JD-TWINS
    They don’t have any intention of trading Moreno……that’s why you give them 5 players (3 pitchers of differing value - a solid catcher - an All-star Utility guy) & take Montgomery off their hands. They need to be enticed!
  8. JD-TWINS
    I think Ryan may have hit his way out of the DH opportunities after June 15. A non- issue.
  9. JD-TWINS
    My impression of Rule 5 is that the guy has to be on MLB roster - maybe wrong? Anyway, $2.5M is well spent v. having a guy that has 75 AAA at bats……..unimpressive AB’s as well ……..,can’t go there. Trade for a Catcher - young guy that can play - not a high draft pick that’s “expected to pan out eventually”. Give up players to solve this - trade Jeffers to fill the young guy’s spot in trade partner organization. Pitching & an everyday player - whatever they need to piece together to bring the right guy to the Twins.
  10. JD-TWINS
    I was hoping they may have more time, and could have traded Vazquez and a young arm and $2M somewhere to acquire D’Arnauld as a free agent for $6M/yr ………would have had a 2 year plan and saved $2M/yr. and had better offense. Even discussing Camargo as a potential option (other than emergency injury replacement) is silly to me. .298 OBP at AAA doesn’t translate to MLB consideration unless he’s elite behind the plate - he’s not. Not an option out of Spring Training or probably ever. In a perfect world they trade Jeffers - Castro - Matthews - Paddack - Henriquez to AZ for their Catcher (Moreno) and Jordan Montgomery (Twins take on $12M). AZ gets rid of a mutually bad situation with Montgomery and they get value back! Twins flip Montgomery to Red Sox along with Duran and another piece (Miranda?) for 1B Tristan Casas. To me, targeting Casas and doing whatever to achieve that end is worthwhile. Pertinent here, solves Catcher issues! Also, saves $18.5M. The $$ saved and the individuals can change but the acquisition of those 2 guys allows Team to compete with anyone.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Tough to trade guys that can’t earn a spot in the present club……I like them both. They both earned my respect in ‘24. I had high expectations for Wallner and he was brutal early……really came back and produced for 10 weeks! Larnach looked like a professional hitter and just kept exuding more confidence and a calm at the plate. PEN might be OK if it’s erasable ink…. I do think they will be mainstays in the line-up!!
  12. JD-TWINS
    I agree on the 2.0WAR (or less) veterans being signed for whatever $$, doesn’t make sense …….just play Martin & Kiersey as with through mid-May and hope one of them takes off……..let Emma get more AB’s at AAA so he can drop into a slot by June 1. Don’t need Cahna or Grichuk or similar!
  13. JD-TWINS
    What do you think his chances are to play decent to good defense in CF and hit similarly to Martin? Seriously. To me that should be a real expectation……300 AB’s - hit .245 - .255 or better - 20 doubles - 9-10 HR - good defense - 90 OPS or better. A fast #9 hitter while Rodriguez develops OR a bridge until they make a trade at the deadline if needed.
  14. JD-TWINS
    Nobody should expect a “healthy” Buxton to start more than 85 games in CF…….another 25 at DH……that’s a positive volume of action for him! If Kiersey platoons predominantly v. RH pitching, he can pick up 65-75 starts in CF and another 15-20 between LF & RF. He hasn’t shown that he should be relied upon to start more than 90-100 games in the SHOW…..hasn’t shown he should be relied upon to start more than 15 games so far. Kiersey - Martin - Larnach - Buxton - Wallner is the OF …….. Castro (if Julien & Lee & Keaschall can hit some in the Spring) may be available for a bunch of innings in OF if he’s not traded. I’d probably mix Castro with another piece or two in a trade. I think Kiersey gives them a bridge to Emma &/or trade deadline acquisition.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Agreed! Lots of potential moveable pieces: Duran - Jeffers or Vazquez - Castro - Julien - Paddack - Henriquez - Miranda - Matthews ……..just to name a few. Need a BAT at Catcher or 1B or both!! Personally, I’m fine with not making any OF moves outside the organization. Castro, if not traded, can play LF & CF as needed….Larnach - Buxton/Keirsey - Wallner - Martin are fine with me while Emma gets more ready and Jenkins is a possibility for ‘26.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Gotta hit to be available in front of Keaschall - I have little confidence in the other 2B candidates ability with the bat! I think he’s in St. Paul by end of April if he doesn’t start there out of Spring Training…….@ TARGET by end of June.
  17. JD-TWINS
    No more difficult to throw from 2B in St. Paul v. AA - you’re right! Needs to get to highest level sooner than later. Hoping he’s in Minneapolis by late June!
  18. JD-TWINS
    Montas had a few (6-7) very encouraging outings here in Cincinnati. …….similar results over a couple less outings in Milwaukee. He also had a pretty big number of 4-7 run outings over 3-6 innings. He was the epitome of zero consistency. David Festa can do every bit as well & hopefully, better!! Picking up average pitchers for considerable $$ or for low $$ just doesn’t make sense to me. Team has guys with decent stuff at AAA and the major concern with them is consistency. Anybody available under $16M/yr is a major risk when it comes to consistency. Then there’s Blake Snell & his issues with consistency and injury …… for $35M.
  19. JD-TWINS
    To me, it looks pretty clear that Hays would come in around $6.4M in ‘25, per the post above. His capabilities shown in ‘24 would lead one to stick with the “hard pass” comment from another here. Keep Castro, as he is just as good of an outfielder with capabilities to play 3 spots in the infield. Same cost. Right handed Castro doesn’t fit the bill but Hays doesn’t appear to be a good move w/o a bunch of risk. Better off using youth and rotating them for opportunities with their available options. Can live with Martin’s OF production and defense if they upgrade at 1B!
  20. JD-TWINS
    I propose a complex set of moves that basically has Jax going to the closer role for this specific post. I propose trading Jeffers - Matthews - Henriquez to D-backs for their young catcher Moreno and Jordan Montgomery. Twins take on $13M of his $25M salary. AZ gets rid of Montgomery and gets a reasonable Catcher in Jeffers along with two young, upside arms. Twins then trade Duran (replaces Jansen) - Montgomery - Paddack - Miranda to the Red Sox for Tristan Casas (1B). Castro may need to go to Boston instead of Miranda……..Miranda or Castro give them 3B depth for Devers and Miranda could fill 1B - Boston’s preference? TWINS shed $4.7M - $3.7M - $7.5M in moving these guys. An additional $6.3M if Castro is involved. $22.2M to spend. Most importantly they obtain a Catcher & First Baseman along with FA $$ available to fill a need. Dream world??
  21. JD-TWINS
    71 innings v. 171 innings …… the reliever v. starter expectations. His pitch effectiveness will diminish, fact that everyone would acknowledge, including Jax. His max level effort out of the Pen, to me, gives a false impression of what he could be as a starter. Now, some due to psychology, it’s a big deal for him to pitch more than one inning - or 25 pitches per outing. He averages 2.82 innings over the 25 week season (71 innings) v. 6.78 innings as a starter over 25 week season (171 innings). Starting is a different world, from the ability to be effective - to maintaining health - to reinventing what’s going on between your ears.
  22. JD-TWINS
    If he insists, we have to let him be a SP - why? He works for the Team & will be paid around $2.5M for ‘25. This is hardly an indentured servant position………do companies pay/promote the 26 year olds that think they could or should be Vice President of the operation? No. Employees need to be treated fairly but not completely coddled. The Twins gave him an opportunity to be a starter & it didn’t work - they have worked together to develop him into an excellent reliever. Both sides have contributed and both sides have benefited. I think they should elevate Jax to being the closer and trade Duran & others for a Bat. Team gets better - Jax makes more $$ going forward - everybody wins. He doesn’t need to be tried as a starter because that’s what he wants to do………Royce Lewis wants to play SS but that’s not happening! Team doesn’t need a 3rd or 4th guy in the rotation that they have to be concerned about after he reaches 125 innings. Also, they need to maintain their edge in the bullpen as well & Jax is key to achieving that end.
  23. JD-TWINS
    IMO, Jax throwing 71 innings of .87WHIP baseball is a tremendous value & should not be blended into the rest of the relief corp - he is the backbone of the Bullpen. The risks listed are all very real & probable that one of them becomes reality. Innings limitations at some point and zero gas left in the tank at some point are a very likely scenario even if he’s having great success as a starter. It’s my assumption that he wants to start to be worth more $$. I would try to remedy that by trading Duran and another piece(s) to get a performance BAT and move Jax to the closer role. Highest leverage and more perceived value for future contracts/paydays. The AAA depth with Matthews - Morris - C. Lewis - Raya all point to Jax staying in the Pen being the right move. IMO, Festa is ahead of Paddack for a rotation spot. Paddack helps add great depth to the Pen if Duran is traded or Paddack is traded with another guy or two for a youthful option at some position.
  24. JD-TWINS
    “Trout had to go back down” ……I realize this is not uncommon. My thought is to minimize this possibility for Emma and not to experiment at the MLB level. I would like to see any player try to work out a big % of his potential struggles somewhere other than in the Twin’s line-up. I don’t think that bringing a guy up in April means he will be solid by June 15. Twins need to focus on winning - you and I are just fans with differing opinions……..how they approach it won’t be solved here. Personally, I don’t see anyone (Emma) that’s only had success through AA (while frequently hurt) take the place of a more proven veteran bat from outside the system (FA) when Spring Training breaks. Have a nice Thanksgiving!!
  25. JD-TWINS
    Sorry - I need to find your list. Didn’t notice you addressed the others that are better than our 3 guys…..will check it out.
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