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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    MLB at bats for this trio is 136 (all Roden with a .191 BA) while Larnach has 1461 AB’s and a .241 BA ……… 25 points higher exclusively against RH pitching. I think that’s called logic. He certainly can be forced off of the Roster but FO’s need guys to force people off the Roster not give guys a spot and HOPE. And you’re right 6-12 AB’s for these guys does not a true debut make ………. need to see where these 3 are at March 20th. They need to face MLB vets and produce. Fingers crossed - would love to see Roden & Gonzalez excel!
  2. JD-TWINS
    The .692 OPS assumes no strong side as a Pinch Hitter……..Not familiar with his numbers but often there’s a strong side with switch hitters. Larnach is barely average OPS v. all pitching he’s seen, but he’s around .765 v. RH pitching. I think it’s a reasonable idea to keep guys fresh through May/June until some OF hits his way on to the Big Club. Clemens - Larnach - Martin - Wallner - Outman - Buxton Lewis - Lee - Keaschall - Bell 3 Catchers ……..13 guys. No back-up IF in this scenario …… doesn’t work! ……..looks like 2 Catchers and either Kriedler or Grey……….with Lewis and Lee and their propensity to be nicked up, Team will need 2 depth IF sooner than later. Outman, because Roden has options and somebody other than Martin needs to be able to spell Buxton. Not trading Larnach so Jackson can get in the line-up.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Larnach is the DH v. RH pitching……..starts in LF or RF 20 games through the year. Martin is a lock as well as Caratini! Wallner - Buxton - Clemens ……… Lewis - Lee - Keaschall - Bell - Jeffers Back up SS and another OF candidate ……. don’t think anyone knows who these two will be for another 3-4 weeks of baseball in FLA.
  4. JD-TWINS
    Sign Zack Littell for 2 years at $8.5M/year. Need innings and consistency! Can free up the opportunity to actually consider trading Ryan at the deadline if things aren’t going as well as hoped. If youth blooms through the year, Littell or another Vet could be traded in the off-season. Ryan🤞- Ober - SWR - Bradley - Abel/Matthews …………could use somebody else with experience!!
  5. JD-TWINS
    I do not see how/why Clemens has somehow become some sort of anchor on the Twin’s Roster in so many minds? To me, the only reason is because he’s a familiar name. He was picked up after being released and makes the minimum. He’s not some great find or diamond in the rough that Team should covet. He had some big moments last season, granted. 3 HR’s in one game! To me, that type of production, his successes, are going to come to many many marginal players, given playing time. He had 19 HR’s in a limited number of AB’s….. that’s notable. His overall numbers are not MLB sustainable. To me, he’s the 13th guy on the roster for position players. He certainly should not be the everyday first baseman v. RH pitching on any team seeking to be competitive. He is, to me, a back-up in LF, RF, 2B & 1B. Value there for sure! If he’s not “in the line-up” daily there is no real loss to the offense nor player development. IMO, Larnach starts 25 games in LF or RF through the year v. RH pitching. He is the DH for 90 games v. RH pitching. It seems the root of your questions #1 & #2 is do I think Larnach is a more positive effect in the line-up v. Clemens - right? I’d take Larnach for sure! If Rodriguez or Gonzalez or whoever forces their way on to the Roster ……… Clemens is expendable OR Roden gets sent down OR Outman is DFA’d OR some neons got hurt. If somebody forces their way on to the Roster, somebody probably isn’t performing on the big club. Potentially, if there is a deal to be made, Larnach gets traded late in July to a Team in need.
  6. JD-TWINS
    $4.4M …….. CHEAP for nearly every other Team in baseball. Known quantity v RH pitching v. “potential” or “promise” guys. Eventually, one of the young guys will prove they are ready but guys don’t just get inserted in MlB because writers think they’ll be good at some point. He’s a DH, IMO. Strictly v. RH pitching. Am not worried about his defense.
  7. JD-TWINS
    ………AND if better talent, sought after by a dozen other Clubs!
  8. JD-TWINS
    If Outman should be out of the mix based upon recent 2 years of ugly OPS……….there is absolutely zero reason to think that Kriedler would be chosen with a career sub .400 OPS! Maybe be he hits .450 this Spring? If not, he has no chance.
  9. JD-TWINS
    Larnach will make $4.48M in ‘26. Larnach is the DH and Clemons/Martin ……… maybe Roden will play LF & RF, along with Wallner. Outman may get chosen instead of Roden? Martin, to me, is waaay ahead of Clemens when it comes to being “a lock”! Starting IF with Bell at 1B - almost exclusively, Larnach at DH (v. righties) - 2 Catchers (1 of them may be DH v. lefties?) - Martin, Clemens, Buxton, Wallner in OF. Roden or Outman or Rodriguez based upon Spring Training. Gray, at 29, seems to be stable and with .638 OPS (in a small sampling) seems to be the best option to start with as the depth IF guy ……… still can use Clemens in infield as well.
  10. JD-TWINS
    I agree - he’s got more than just Buxton - Keaschall - Martin to work with but those 3 (Roden-Outman-Kriedler) have to be on the roster and more difficult, they have to get on base, increases velocity order to steal bases.
  11. JD-TWINS
    They have a handful of 15-20 SB guys along with Keaschall at 30+ and Buxton at 25+. Can’t run these latter two guys into injury …………risk/reward comes into play relative to health.
  12. JD-TWINS
    That doesn’t happen…..22HR and 41 total XBH with a whopping 40 RBI …….damn near impossible to pull off. The definition of “not clutch”! To me, he and Lee consistently battled for biggest disappointment!!
  13. JD-TWINS
    “….moving all these young starters” is way more than needs to be done to help the PEN be competitive. Raya is making the move. They need maybe one or probably two more of the “starters” to make a shift. Festa is probably the next most logical due to arm health issues……… that leaves, IMO, Morris or Matthews or Prielipp. Prielipp has “potential” for a higher ceiling and they have 3-5 lefthanders in or near the PEN now…….it’s probably not him. Klein is in the mix for ‘26 PEN. Morris and Matthews are essentially clones …..low walk rates in the Minors, increased velocity that touches 98 once in a while, 6 pitch mix with only the slider/sweeper as the real Plus pitch. One of them needs to lose 2-3 pitches and move into the backend of the ‘26 PEN………if the Team cares about competing and not just going through the motions. Cole Sands can’t routinely be looked on to close games……..a blend of 2/3 guys including Sands once in a while……OK.
  14. JD-TWINS
    Festa’s ERA v. 3-5 guys at a time has a chance to be much, much better than his ERA trying to throw 4-6 innings per outing. Prielipp is obviously a question mark - also though, potentially respectable in short bursts of 14-22 pitches per outing.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Not sure how Bean can disagree with your comments? Prielipp threw 83 innings last year, as you stated, and that was as what he describes as a “healthy starter”. He threw 7 innings in College in ‘21 & zero innings in ‘22. Then he bounced back to throw 6 2/3 in ‘23 and 23 1/3 in ‘24. He’s essentially the definition of a guy that needs to have innings monitored and be handled with kid gloves. I think he should be a reliever in ‘26 to monitor innings more easily/effectively and get most value, but I’m a fan and it doesn’t matter what I think. Whether a starter or a reliever or some combination, I cannot see any scenario that Prielipp throws more than 110-120 innings in ‘26.
  16. JD-TWINS
    70-80 mostly effective innings from the PEN, regardless of 7th/8th/9th innings, is a nice spot for him.
  17. JD-TWINS
    Don’t see too many guys go more than an inning at a time and be able to pitch 3X per week. 24 weeks x 3 outings per week is 72 innings of close to Max Effort each time. This, to me, seems to be a good maximum goal.
  18. JD-TWINS
    I see somebody in the analytics gang didn’t like Festa’s stuff/chances in the PEN…… a .118BA against first time through the line-up, over 206 AB’s, that works for me in ONE inning outings!
  19. JD-TWINS
    Career ERA for Littell is 3.88 …… Career ERA for Lopez is 3.81
  20. JD-TWINS
    To me, my opinion, Giolito is as fragile or more-so than Pablo after missing all of ‘24. His health history, from memory, isn’t great either. …….. I looked and prior to ‘24 he WAS pretty durable…….4.30 career ERA though. Zack Littell for 2 years at $18-$21M total is probably realistic. He threw 186 innings in ‘26. His career ERA is 3.88 ……… Pablo’s career ERA is 3.81. Not even remotely trying to say Littell is as effective as Lopez but facts are facts. ……..to me, he’s a better value than Giolito as the same money gets 2 years of Littell v. one of Giolito.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Johan Santana pitched in relief 25 - 11 - 13 - 27 games in his first 4 seasons………he started a handful of games in a couple seasons and 10 or so in the other two seasons. He shifted to “full time starter” while in his 5th season………he then finished 3rd twice and 5th once in Cy Young voting ……….. as well as Winning the Award twice. Starting out in the PEN is not a sentence for one’s entire career.
  22. JD-TWINS
    1.51 WHIP in ‘25. PEN to Starter: Crochet in past 2 years - Johann Santana did OK too after 2 1/2 yrs in the PEN. Career innings pitched Professionally since 2020 by year: 21 - 7.2 - zero - 6.2 - 23.1 - 82.2……….I can’t imagine how anyone doesn’t think his innings need to be monitored in ‘26? Seems easy to execute an innings plan, while contributing, from the PEN. Can’t run a professional sports franchise based on “fan opinions” about the upcoming season.
  23. JD-TWINS
    …….and oh what a Merry Christmas it would be!
  24. JD-TWINS
    Johan Santana pitched from PEN most of his first 3 seasons …… younger, but still was a reliever and won 2 Cy Young’s. Not comparing talent but many, many guys have started in relief roles and become viable starters eventually. He had a 1.51 WHIP in ‘25 …….. he’s not that obviously special. Let him try to contribute to the “competitiveness” the Club wants to pursue from the PEN in ‘26.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Probably because Zebby & Festa aren’t real rotation answers and Rojas is a year away…… that leaves Bradley & Abel …… & after Pablo left with Elbow Soreness yesterday…… Abel & Bradley may both be IN the rotation in 6 weeks.
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