JD-TWINS

Ray gets $23M/year over life of contract……,he pitched a fair amount of innings and stayed healthy……..give ya that & there is value in that!………….12-12 with a 3.71 ERA is not an ACE. With the addition of Castillo at the break last year, it may have dropped Ray to being Seattle’s 5th best starter. Seriously.

He’s at $14.5 this year I believe and was pissed because the club wouldn’t pay another $300K - they built an argument against his recent year’s performance……..gotta think his arbitration number is no more than $20M in ‘24. Whatever, pay him something a bit higher than the expectation to help the relationship.

If we had a proven - solid Pen, I could care less about signing an ACE. We do have a solid starting Staff now w/o an “ace” & if we had 5 good/reliable relievers for playoffs I’d be good. Jax - Duran - Thielbar …….. Moran ………we now have 4 guys in our Pen we can rely on but the others are all suspect regarding consistency or health. I think, for ‘23, we should drop minor league starters into Pen roles with Big Club. We can drop one of the starters to relief in play-offs.

Didn’t work because he hurt his knee and needed a procedure & rest. Can’t do that in May if you’re still hitting the baseball well. He played off & on while continuing to help the offense………didn’t work in ‘22 because he was injured. He played 2nd most games in a season last year. Only played over a hundred games once! ‘22 wasn’t his first year being hurt. Need to try & load manage from the jump this year to TRY and extend his health and get more at bats. “Putting him out there until he’s hurt…….” hasn’t been real positive historically.

Agreed - your New Chart looks about as close as one could come! Larnach needs to play & hit .500 this spring to even get a thought for opening day - still don’t see it w/o an injury to an outfielder.

Exactly, 80 games in CF v. RH pitching (Taylor starts 40 games v. LH pitching) - 50 games at DH - 32 games sitting. 50% - 30% - 20%……80% of the games with him hitting is a way better % than his entire career! He played 140 games one season…..92 games is his 2nd highest total after 7 seasons. Agreed on his attitude about DHing……never going to get 500 AB’s plus playing CF and getting his knee drained every 3 weeks. Gordon picks up the other 40 starts in CF v. RH pitching.

Robbie Ray could be one of worst FA signings ever - he may be their 5th starter……….Rodon signed for $27/yr……Tallion signed for $17/yr…….Wacha can get $24-$30 over 4 years…….Bassitt signed for 3 yrs at $21M/yr. It’s $ and years weighed together. I think we extend Burnes an extra $6 million over his potential arbitration high in ‘24 as a good faith move. Then $30M/yr for 3 additional years. That’s a good offer relative to any signings of ‘22-‘23.

………back to Burnes & $/contract details……if we could get him this summer at the deadline, offer him over arbitration $ for ‘24, around $24M & then offer $30M for 3 additional years. I can’t believe he would risk pitching all of ‘24 for arbitration $ of around $18M without any compensation guarantee past ‘24 & not take the additional $96M we would be offering for 3 more years and a signature by end of calendar ‘23. Who would we trade? I think a starter with control - Ober…….an OF prospect - Walner…….an IF prospect - Martin…….just saw Martin has been shutdown with a UCL elbow injury. Bummer! Who else is worth moving to get Brewer’s attention?

Where do you get 5 years? I don’t keep detailed track of the Free Agent signings but I don’t recall many guys signing for more than 3 years as pitchers. He’s making $14 this year I think & one more year of control. If we could get him by August 1 and bump him to $22 (we’ll above arbitration) in ‘24 & give him $30 in ‘25 & ‘26 it seems pretty fair to him! If he needs 5 years & that’s the market - that’s what we need to do for an Ace. Maybe it’s $26M/yr for 5 years……we get a discount on ‘24 & actually have him for 6 years. Risky but an Ace. Gotta act if we truly want an Ace.

Burnes would be a good pick-up! Would anchor the Staff. He has ‘24 left under control. Extend him 2 years right away for around $30M/yr……extend Lopez this year, if he’s solid, for 2 more years. Extend Mahle if he throws well for 3 years. Burnes - $30M ……Mahle - $21M……Lopez - $20M………Varland & Paddack & Headrick & SWR & etc. from the Farm. We’d be set, on paper, through ‘26! Already spending $16M between Mahle & Lopez. We get back $21 M between Gray & Maeda leaving………Taylor, Kepler, Polanco, Solano, & Gallo will probably all be gone after ‘23 getting us back $36M……..that’s $73M to cover the 3 pitchers above! Trade Ober - Walner - Martin at the Break or shortly after, for Burnes.

Health is a gamble for any pro sports team…. nothing special here with the Twins needing better health (significantly) than in ‘22. Polanco was starting All-Star in ‘21…..he was banged up in ‘22 and only played 65% of the season. Christian Vázquez is as solid as they come…..granted, due to lack of quickness & service time, Miranda might be considered average or just below at 3rd. Don’t see the weaknesses you point out up the middle. Vazquez - Polanco - CC - Buxton are a really strong group up the middle v. anyone else in baseball.

Agreed!……I do think, because of experience, a healthy Dobnak may be more effective to start in long roll at beginning of the year. He can get 6-7 outs……Sands is probably our 2nd best option for long relief. If our starters are healthy later this summer maybe SWR goes to a long roll with Big Club?

Can’t be picking up guys for free after Spring Training has started with any real confidence they may make your team! Am ignoring these 2 guys. Alcala - high 80’s vs. 95.3MPH is a great initial outing vs. a non-starter. Don’t know what to believe? Assuming, if he’s pitching in games he feels OK. Henriquez is done in game situations until mid-April at a minimum……can’t get shutdown and be full go 4 weeks later. Hand has 6-7 years of success……not as sharp lately but certainly not washed! Experience with relievers and their ability in tight situations overrides spin rates & velocity. Gotta have decent stuff but don’t need to dominate with stuff - location, speed change, & courage/experience are what makes pitchers - especially relievers. I think it would be a worthwhile $3 million, with some incentives on top! Hand - Moran - Thielbar - Jax - Duran - Pagan - López - Long guy (Sands - Winder - ??) Scary, since we don’t have Hand - are worried about Moran’s control - have little faith in López - less faith in Pagan - no I.D. on who the long guy might be……….stated above Megill & Alcala are wildcards! Balazovic & SWR might be an infusion for a short guy & long guy by end of May!

Undersold Bert - took a look, he actually had 95 wins by the end of age 24 season. Gotta be close to Top 5 for that many wins that young!! Hopefully, we’re celebrating Lee in a few years!

Blyleven had about 70 wins by the time he was Lee’s age……,he’s the real extreme!!

I’ve assumed if Lewis comes back strong, by ‘24 3rd base would be his. That left 2nd base for Lee. This doesn’t read that way at all. Whatever works! I guess he can stay at SS on the Farm and make sure Correa stays healthy this year? Gotta work at 3rd or 2nd by the latter half of the year so he can at least play some in September. Lee & Lewis & a healthy Kirilof in ‘24 make Miranda the extra 1B guy v. lefties……back-up at 3rd………..DH. He could be part of a trade package as well. Hoping for a solid ‘23 for all 3 of them!

Need long relief guy…….he can throw 25-50 pitches a couple times per week. Best use of his skills without creating fatigue…..allows him to let it go when he does pitch. May need to give him a minimum of 3 days between appearances…..which is OK if he can go 2 plus innings per appearance!

Twins carry the day!! …….assuming Correa is wrapped into last year’s roster, TWINS added Gallo, Solano, Farmer, Taylor, Vázquez……..all to supplement a good core that was beat up but in first place last year through August. Pitching has Maeda back - López - Mahle all added to supplement the dumpster fire that was our ‘22 starting rotation. Cleveland’s stud new AAA starter is out two months with arm issue……they signed Josh Bell - good move. They also signed Mike Zunino - seriously?? Better defense version of Gary Sanchez …..big deal!! Twins win!

Like the finishing paragraph a lot! “……….Eagerly await when the young guys are ready!!!” Very tired of all the ideas of getting rid of anyone not an AllStar with more than 2-3 years of MLB time……….”let’s get our young guys an opportunity………we’re blocking our young talent……” We have experienced - proven depth players. Right when we get to “stability” and can see great varying line-up options with solid platoons, we want to trade our valuable 32 year old Utility guy & a 30 year old depth piece from our outfield………If Larnach wants to make the Club, play, instead of suffering from lower body discomfort….see, 2/28 notice. AVAILABILITY Trevor….gotta start there. FORCE your way into the line-up, don’t rely on where you were drafted nor what your prospect status may be. We have veterans to help us be stable & productive……..to wins games……not to block prospects. If the young guys are good enough they’ll be on the Big Club, they won’t be left behind because there’s somebody 4-5 years older on the roster!! Let’s get serous about the Team’s talent evaluators and management - quit treating them like a group that just got lobotomies!

Guys like Catfish Hunter…..Jim Palmer……Dave McNally…….Louis Tiant………Gaylord Perry……Jim Kaat!! Bad news is Palmer threw as hard as anyone in the game and he probably maxed out at 92-93 for a few short years. Perry & Tiant were very much multi pitch, spin guys. A good slider was 82 MPH…….now it’s 88-89MPH - harder on arms. Guys today are brought up to “protect their arms”……..coaches are instructed to “protect young guy’s arms.” They don’t get leaned on to throw “too much” their entire lives. Can’t expect them to shift gears at 26 years old. Also, if one doesn’t throw 91-92 minimum, targeting 96-97MPH one isn’t a real major league pitcher. There’s very little “pace” thinking in any pitching today with 8 relievers in Pen……..hell, relievers cannot even throw more than 20 pitches many days! It’s not a Baldelli thing - it’s not a Twins thing. Average length of start last year in MLB is less than 5.4 innings (from memory - no higher) so with Archer going 3 2/3 & Bundy going 5 1/3 the other 3 guys have to last above league average to get to 5.0 inning average per start. Gray was on IL 3 times - Ryan recovering from Covid & a protected Rookie Arm - Mahle bad shoulder - Ober, oft hurt - Winder, oft hurt…….Paddack & Maeda out for the year after surgeries. What’s the manager supposed to do?

Gordon played 33 games in CF last year & Buxton was around 60 games in CF, max.! Trying to get 130 starts out of Buxton this year …….he had about 35 starts at DH in ‘22. Needs to pick up another 15 games at DH & 20 games in CF. Totals of 80 in CF & 50 at DH. This leaves 40-45 games in CF with RH pitching that fit Gordon & not Taylor. 75-80 games in LF for Gordon v. RH pitching. Maybe a handful of games at DH? 125 starts is 77% of the games. Gordon “has more power at 26-27” because he was healthy for the first time in his pro career last year. He put on 25lbs in 2022 - BIG deal! 28 doubles starting in 60% of last year’s starts……..targeting 36 doubles this year starting 77% of the time…….12 HR’s as well. If he approaches these XBH numbers with a matching BA around .272 he’ll be just below All-Star Status.

His SO per 9 innings for 6 year career are 9.6 and his cumulative ERA over those 6 years is 3.01 & his won- loss is 18-7. Pretty solid as a body of work!

Killebrew played 1B for the last 6-7 years he played defense, through ‘73. DHed in KC…..Oliva DHed in MN. He played LF some - a fair amount at 3B until Rollins was a plus there. Vic Power was gone Killebrew moved to first to preserve his legs - tore a leg muscle stretching at 1B & that move lost him a 1/3 of a season or more in that move. Anyway, guys that age or get hurt and have reduced range end up at 1B. Luis Arraez - Ernie Banks - yes, Rod Carew - etc……..,,bottom line is, flexibility is great. Lewis - Lee - Julien - Rodríguez - Martin all options at 2B is a plus. 2-3 of those guys being possibilities at 3B &/or corner OF is great as we fill out the roster for ‘24. GOTTA be better if guys can play BIG chunks of a season at their primary “position to be” prior to promotion into The Show to get them comfortable.

Well, this is senseless, but gotta do it…………probably my 15th push over the last 3 months in Twins Daily for Nick Gordon. Been ill his entire pro career until 2022. Gained 25 lbs last year. Got much stronger! Played OF for first time in his career. 65 starts in LF - 33 starts in CF…….my assumption is he plays 40-45 games in CF & another 75-80 in LF, all v. RH pitching. His year long stats in ‘22 got him a .272 BA & 28 doubles in 405 AB’s. If he can DH some &/or play some 1B and get his AB’s up over 500 he’ll hit 35 - 40 doubles……not a lot of guys in the game doing that! Not Joey Gallo nor Max Kepler. I see 40 - 50 games of Gallo - Gordon - Kepler v. RH starters. (% of games started…..31%) Taylor plays v. LH pitching in the OF - mostly CF. Other than those 40 games I see him as a pinch runner - pinch hitter - late inning Defense guy. A back-up! Insurance, with experience & defensive talent with decent splits against lefties. (28%) Gallo spends 40 games in LF - 40 games in RF - 20 games at 1B - 20 games at DH……maybe a handful in CF. (77%) Kepler plays 115 games in RF. (71%) Buxton plays 75-80 games in CF - 50 games at DH. (80%) Gordon plays 40 games in CF - 75 games in LF - at DH 5 games.(74%) CC plays SS 130 games & DH’s 10 times. (86%) Miranda plays 10 games at DH - 115 games at 3B - 10 games at 1B. (83%) Solano plays 20 games at 2B - at DH 10 times - at 1B 20 games. (31%) Polanco DH maybe 15 times - 2B 120 games. (83%) Kirilof plays 110 games at 1B - at DH maybe 10 games.(74%) Vazquez - 65% ……Jeffers 35% ……both get a few tries (10 total) at DH v. LH pitching. Farmer gets 30 games at 3B - 20 games at 2B - 32 games at SS. (51%) Larnach is up at some point due to injuries or lack of performance……20 games at DH & 40 games in LF. (37%) % of games started: STARTERS……Buxton @ 80% - Vazquez @ 65% - Kirilof @ 74% - Polanco @ 83% - Miranda @ 83% - Correa @ 86% - Gordon @ 74% - Kepler @ 71% - Gallo @ 77% BENCH….Jeffers @ 35% - Farmer @ 51% - Taylor @ 28% - Solano @ 31% - Larnach @ 37%…..good rest provided to others and able to play mostly against positive splits!! Gotta think Lewis will detract starts from a guy or two on this roster by August/September.

Experienced & mentally tough! That may be where the comparisons to Moyer stop though. First, he’s 35 not 43….,,,,understand your thought process though. I think the BIG difference between Caleb & Jamie is Caleb’s stuff has improved, considerably……….higher velocity…….higher spin rates. Moyer was not much stuff - slower & slower velocity - almost all guile! IMO.