PatPfund

I guess stats show you what you want to see. The OP waxes poetic about bat speed and tilt. I see he scored 28 for contact on a scale where 20 is zero. (Also see a release coming with an offer for St Paul if/when he isn't claimed.)

I hope you are right about changes to come, because trying to figure out combos that include Wallner and Larnach in the OF, Clemens or Bell at 1B, and Outman (so aptly named) on the roster at all is like arranging those Titanic deck chairs. Having slow, below average defenders who mostly will hit below the average for their positions is just brutal. Emmanuel Rodriguez should be on this team unless he either plays his way off or gets hurt. Hopefully Roden hits. Emma/Roden/Martin with Buxton does a lot more for me than Larnach/Outman/Wallner. Move the slow players to slow player spots (like 1B) or get them off the team. Play Gonzalez at 1B in St Paul, and if he keeps hitting, give him a shot at forcing someone else out. If this team doesn't get younger/faster/better-defensively the lineup won't matter.

Given the high-ceiling OF prospects knocking on the door at AAA, Larnach and Wallner (neither good defensively) should be getting big looks at 1B/DH, and told to play for roster spots (seriously, how much more mobile or better as hitters are they going to get at their ages). Clemens could play 2B, Keaschall could go to the OF for Larnach, Emma to RF for Wallner, and Gabby Gonzalez should be at 1B in St Paul. None of this is great, but at least you can shift bats to maximize strengths of the roster instead of pledging max time to a guy with a 91 OPS+.

The projection is (I guess) a reminder we have some pieces, and not worth much more since those pieces may (or may not) be gone by ST. One of the main sources of gloom in Twinsland is how deeply vested too many got in the ownership and possible sale. I frankly don't get that; as far as I'm concerned an owner needs to provide decent resources, and the less I know about them and hear about/from them the happier I am. And the younger Pohlads have (at least in the past) provided decent resources within the context of the division. After that it is up to the baseball side to perform. This team currently has enough to compete for our division; without making a move you can have a 'pen of Prielipp, Festa, Orza, Sands, Funderburk, Topa, and Klein on a budget of under $90 million (with several strong arms in St Paul as backup for both the rotation and the bullpen). We also have some serious hitting on tap (Emma, Gonzalez, Jenkins), and if people are so hung up on what we lost (which really was Duran, Jax, Varland, and a bunch of expiring contracts), many of those like Castro and Bader are available right now on the FA pile. Yep, things may change, and yep, a bunch of things have to go right, but that is pretty much the same thing you can say about most teams that aren't the Dodgers. Chin up peeps, rub some dirt on the spot that hurts, and let's play ball.

This is depressing stuff, but I tend to agree with @Mike Sixel's grading of the teams. Buxton isn't likely to give a blanket waiver, he'll want approval on the team, and teams as far away as the Twins from a title aren't likely to qualify. I don't agree at all with the thoughts that Buxton gets a new contract to waive the no-trade. I don't think the Twins actually want to trade him unless blown away by an offer; he is a cost-effective superstar, the main reason to watch the Twins, and this team needs revenue in both ticket sales and Twins.tv subscriptions; carrying Byron into the season boosts both of those big time. The only reason this is happening is that Byron MAY have signaled to the team he is ready to go, and that comes with zero leverage for new contract terms. My personal guess is that Lopez, Ryan, and Buxton are here into the season for several reasons. One the team needs revenue (bears repeating), two they probably get more in-season (think of the haul the Reds got for a gimpy shouldered SP, or what the Twins just got for a few good RPs and a batch of expiring contracts), and three it gives a few months peek at our own prospects so we can see what we actually need. Also as a personal thought, if I'm Derek Shelton there is no way I sign with the Twins without at least a chance to compete with a decent team (dude could have easily gotten a bench coach job, and waited for a less Pirate-like rerun).

@dxpavelka I laughed out loud at your comment, because I was looking to move Larnach and/or Wallner, and couldn't think of a legitimate return I wanted, so I went 'no trade' mode. I spent 10 mill on Jansen (please Twins, don't do that), because if they don't make any moves, they should have some money to spend and still be under $100 million (and a mostly young 'pen could use some veteran leadership). Recent news about Buxton also has me wondering if Byron isn't just open to being traded, but has asked for it. That sure would make tendering Larnach more understandable (he's at least an average MLB bat in a lineup that might suddenly be missing its best).

My 1st stab at this. Goal was $100 million, and no trades. I don't see any future for either Larnach or Wallner in the OF, and neither has hit well enough for any stretch to warrant 1b or DH, but I had to put them somewhere. Roden is 4th OF until he shows he is an MLB hitter. Fitz over Cruddy Kreidler, Love Bailey, but he didn't look any better to me after his month off; I think he is 2026's Most Expensive Saint. I'm giving Abel the early nod over Zebby; Matthews, Morris, Rojas, and Adams are the core Saints SPs, Klein swings, Raya gets 'pen work and/or swings. I signed Jansen to close, Prielipp, Festa, Orza, and Sands are higher leverage, and Funderburk and Topa fill things out. If they click even a little bit, there is payroll space to make an in-season move, if they bomb, you have big trade chips in Buxton, Lopez, and Ryan at the deadline. C: Ryan Jeffers ($6.60M) 1B: Trevor Larnach ($4.70M) 2B: Luke Keaschall ($0.80M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($3.00M) SS: Brooks Lee ($0.80M) LF: Austin Martin ($0.80M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Emmanuel Rodriguez ($0.80M) DH: Matt Wallner ($0.80M) 4th OF: Alan Roden ($0.80M) Utility: Ryan Fitzgerald ($0.80M) Utility: Kody Clemens ($1.10M) Backup C: Alex Jackson ($1.80M) POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($21.75M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($5.80M) SP3: Taj Bradley ($0.82M) SP4: Simeon Woods Richardson ($0.80M) SP5: Mick Abel ($0.82M) RP: Justin Topa ($1.23M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.80M) RP: Cole Sands ($1.30M) RP: Eric Orze ($0.82M) RP: Bailey Ober ($4.60M) RP: Connor Prielipp ($0.80M) RP: David Festa ($0.80M) RP: Kenley Jansen ($10.00M) POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) Payroll is 19.87% under budget

So, just for the record, the OP does NOT have Outman on the roster; he is listed as the 6th of a 5 man OF. Also, being out of options doesn't "lock" you to the 26-man. You can be DFA'd, clear waivers, and accept re-assignment. Happens all the time (can't remember how many Dobnak got DFA'd, and the Twins had a middle reliever a few years ago they DFA'd like 4 times in-season before someone else finally claimed them). I get this is an if-the-season-started-today kind of thing, but Julien is going to have to hit his way on to the roster in ST, and I've given up hope of that happening. I still think Larnach is pushed permanently out of the OF, and he'd make a nice target at 1b, which opens up the DH spot for rotation, and an OF spot for Rodriguez. Julien and Outman get shots, don't hit, and get DFA'd to work it out in St Paul or for someone else.

Well, no. But crafty piece to fire up interaction at the site! Well done, sir!

Solid plan. 100% with the OP on Steps 1 and 5. I get the thought, but no way for me on Goldschmidt; as you point out with Rodriguez, we have too many OFs. Trade Wallner or Larnach, turn the other into a 1B to ease the pressure. We also have bat-first OFs coming in Gonzalez and Mendez, along with Jenkins, and having Goldschmidt creates a DH/1B roadblock to use younger bats with more upside. (Roden still needs to earn a job; Outman is right at the top of my DFA-when-we-need-a-spot list.) If we are adding an FA position player, it probably should be someone who can at least play some SS; we are currently one Brooks Lee back spasm from reaching down to AA for a replacement. I’m also more inclined to talk to Festa about the ‘pen; his stuff looks to have more SP upside than Zebby’s, but he also has had recurring health issues that make me wonder if his frame is stout enough for an SP workload. While Zebby looks like a horse, but with a pitch mix that still needs work. If only we could merge the two…

If you signed Wili Castro, you could DFA Clemens, Fitzgerald, Gasper, Kreidler, McCusker, and Outman, and probably improve on both sides of the ball. (I like Fitz, and McCusker kinda got Rocco’d, but your points on them and the rest are valid.) Put Larnach and Wallner on the block and take the best offer on either, then give the other a 1B mitt and have them lumber around in a position for big slow dudes. Do the same for maybe Gonzalez and Mendez. And scour the late FA lists and ST waivers for better organizational depth. I’d rather see Fedko and Rosario get shots before packing peanuts like Kreidler.

What we all know is... nothing. Not who, not how much (some are assuming the amount of the debt, but if it was the full amount you'd be paying off, not paying down), not the family situation within the Pohlads (including any financial strains from the non-baseball side or how many family members want out of baseball), not what all of that non-knowledge means for the future of the team. We don't even know that Falvey doesn't have a budget already, we just know he hasn't told us what it might be. Personally, I'm fairly sure Falvey DOES have a budget, because this is a business, though there may be a bit of flex for any finalized minority sale. I'm also assuming we won't get direct information until/unless it serves the team, or is revealed in trades at the Jeffers/Ryan/Lopez/Buxton level.

Agreed assuming there is any sort of a future plan. One potential Jeffers plus (based on a small sample size) is that he seems really sharp on challenging called balls that were actually strikes, which under the new system could be the new version of framing.

Yeah, they probably need another SS for depth; pretty tough to start the year with an underperforming guy with a history of back problems, and a guy with very limited MLB time. It does pave a fast track for Culpepper if he hits, but SS is way worse than 1B.

We shouldn't waste our time with position Rule 5s. Our 40 man already has better prospects (Emma, Gonzalez, Mendez, Jenkins) who can be sent down if they struggle.

Prielipp should go to ST as an RP, get a trial, and see how it goes. If the team offers him an RP shot to make the MLB roster, or another year-plus of building up his arm if he doesn't re-damage it, and then a shot to make MLB if he is pitching well... I'm pretty sure he takes the immediate shot. No harm in trying Raya, but he'll have to pitch better in either format to matter in the Bigs.

Right now the Twins have Larnach, Wallner, Buxton, Roden, Emma, Martin, Gonzalez, and Mendez on the 40 man as realistic parts of the MLB team at some point in '26 (and Jenkins in the wings). Only Buxton (other than health) comes without big questions that have to be answered at some point, and I'd rather not put it off by adding somebody else's DFAs. Including at 1B/DH where some of the overflow bats will need to go. Spend our meager FA bucks on the 'pen.

I'm with you on the white flag business. And trading for one or two young outfielders when your top prospects (ones ranked on the global scale) are about to debut at the same position is the opposite of playing chess. At some point we need to either play our prospects to find out what we have, and 2026 seems like a great year to do it. A strong rotation covers up a multitude of rookie struggles, and you can always find someone to overpay mid-season if you need to deal the SPs (after getting another half-season out of them, possibly some gate revenues, and at least a chance to see which prospects aren't cutting it).

Culpepper is the only player I could see on other teams' radars. Position players are really hard to hide even on bad teams. Klein is a bit of surprise; hopefully that works out better than Travis Adams did this year.

The only one sitting on limited (stress on limited) value and any roster depth at all is Wallner. Lee and Sands have more value for this team than anyone else given our 'pen and SS. Lewis in an overall #1 at the bottom of his value. Ober might not be in the league a year from now.

They should trade neither before mid-season unless the deal is sensationally in their favor. A) They don't need salary relief post-deadline purge. B) They need to sort out at least some of the prospects that are starting to fill the 40-man (with another 4-6 coming pre-Rule 5) before adding another bucket-load to the system. C) The only way this team competes next year is with really good SPs carrying the load while the position peeps sort out. Cleveland's been doing it for years, and the Twins probably want the revenue boost only competing can bring. D) They'll likely get more mid-season, because teams lose a bit of reason at the deadline especially when it comes to SPs. Plus, Ryan will have pitched what is usually his best half, and Pablo may well be healthy and dominant again.

I'm okay with it as an ST starting point. Frankly the bullpen probably needs the bulk of the limited FA dollars likely available. On the position side, 2026 likely hinges on how many players step forward, and while I don't expect it to be Clemens, he can probably hold the spot until someone takes it from him, and there's at least the chance of remaining upside (and no big salary to roadblock a spot if he can't cut it).

Some you can get on the FA market for cheap (like Coulombe last year). But the high leverage arms are more likely conversions. Beyond the two the OP mentions, I could see the Twins talking to Bradley and Festa. The Bradley approach being along the lines of his having extended starts with mixed results while his stuff could play at star-level out of the 'pen. For Festa it would be more along the lines of whether his slender build can hold up under a SP inning load (it hasn't so far). Both have stuff that could play up. Zebby's could as well, though he has the frame to throw a lot of innings, and I'd guess they want to give that a shot first.

Ah, the eternal myth of the Twins OF depth. Their starting OF is roughly one star (Buxton); a mediocre player who is likely to be non-tendered and therefore has no trade return (Larnach); and a guy with mediocre defense, huge power but also huge holes in his swing, and an inability to stay on the field (Wallner, who goes into his age 28 season next year only clearing 80 MLB games played once, and who peaked last year at 104 where he looked a bit exposed). Backing them is a promising Martin whose athleticism flashed once Rocco stopped treating him like Castro, Roden who might be good, but hasn't been so far, Outman and Keirsey who can get the ball but can't hit it at an MLB level, and the prospects. On the trade market, that essentially boils down to Buxton and the prospects if you want any meaningful return, and Buxton has a no-trade deal he has been clear (despite speculation) about not waiving. While trading the prospects like Emma and Jenkins is just goofy. I expect they non-tender Larnach, try Wallner at 1B, and Outman/Keirsey are either DFA'd/org-depth at best holding spots until Rodriguez, Gonzalez, and/or Jenkins displace them. Maybe when Martin and Roden get pushed to the bench you can say we have depth, but right now we just have bodies and a no-trade star.

I can't see them spending that money if they keep Jeffers. And if they are spending that money, I'm not sure why they just wouldn't spend it on Jeffers. (I also see no need to trade Jeffers except as a salary dump, because I don't think the return would be game-changing.)