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Rod Carews Birthday

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Everything posted by Rod Carews Birthday

  1. Rod Carews Birthday
    "Unfortunately, this year's free-agent shortstop talent collection (headlined by Tim Anderson and Amed Rosario) is shallower than the kiddie pool that led to Betty Carver's husband's demise in What's Eating Gilbert Grape. [Ed. note: Look, film is the literature of our generation and I'm not going to stop a writer from alluding to a reasonably important one. Me, personally, I don't know how shallow that pool was, and I apologize if this reference constitutes a spoiler. Google tells me the movie's been out long enough that it's your own fault if you wanted to see it but haven't. Tim Anderson and Amed Rosario are rough headliners for a free-agent positional class, is the point.] " I laughed so hard at this that I couldn't finish reading! Great stuff!
  2. Rod Carews Birthday
    Exactly. If you think a guy has a chance to really be a star, you have to hang onto him unless you get someone else who you think is more likely to be a star, or one who fits your needs better. In this case, a pitcher might fit the Twins' needs even more than Rodriguez, but so far I can't find one available that I think is any more of a sure thing than Rodriguez is. I'm guessing that is what is happening to the Twins front office as well. If the upside for Rodriguez is just "solid/good" with an occasional flash of brilliance (Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Danny Ford, Matt Lawton, Brian Dozier) then it's OK to trade him for something more helpful. However, if you think the upside is in the "multiple all-star/MVP" category (Puckett, Oliva, non-injured Morneau) you have to keep him around because it would be very painful to watch and probably detrimental to your team. For me, Rodriguez is in that second category, which makes him too intriguing to trade.
  3. Rod Carews Birthday
    It would be pretty weird if Arraez were actually on the market, but depending on their current (at this moment) financial situation, Miami might be forced to do it. I say lets acquire Luzardo so that it will take a little bit of heat off of them financially so that they can keep him! No. I don't think we need to trade for Arraez, although it would certainly be a first for a player to win the batting title for a team, win a batting title for a new team, and then possibly win a batting title for his first team. That would be really fun!
  4. Rod Carews Birthday
    Sometimes the true downside to a trade is the inability to recover from it if things go badly. Best example ever. . . the infamous Vikings Herschel Walker trade. The Vikings survived but by no means was it a good idea. Contrast that with a proposal to send Polanco and a lower prospect (or two) to Toronto for Manoah. If he can be fixed, even partially, he's a very valuable commodity. If not, he might be done with baseball entirely. Trading Polanco means losing one of the longest serving Twins who has been very valuable over the years and is a very solid veteran presence on the team. However, he plays the position that is inarguably the deepest position on the team in second base, making it the easiest to recover from if the trade goes badly. I would say that the Twins are uniquely suited to take this chance. It's potentially boom or bust, but I think it is worth taking the chance.
  5. Rod Carews Birthday
    I’m going to dream out loud a little here. Keep Julien. Keep Lee. Hope that Kiriloff recovers and starts to mash — and trade Kiriloff. Then you move Julien to first, Lee at second, Correa and Lewis to round out the infield. Make an in-season trade of Kiriloff and Polanco/Farmer for pitching. Certainly will need to liberally add prospects. . . . . OK. Back to reality! I agree with other posters in that I don’t want to trade either Lee or Julien, but am willing to trade either for the right pitcher. If forced to decide between the two, I keep Julien. He has a partial year of MLB experience and has proven himself in it. I also think that his ceiling is a little bit higher. Lee is likely to do fine at the MLB level also, but that is less of a sure thing. I also am of the camp that says Lee will be very solid with the upside of an all-star year or two. My comp here would be Gary Gaetti - different player but similar career. I think Julien has that plus the possibility that he could become a more perennial all-star, MVP vote kind of player. My comp here is a poor man’s Tony Olivia. He won’t be as good, but that’s his path. . . . at least in my dreams!
  6. Rod Carews Birthday
    I do think that Mauer was the best catcher of his generation. The numbers bear it out, and in the case of catchers, even the career numbers. His lack of postseason experience isn’t remotely his fault. By that definition, Rod Carew wasn’t very good either (I know he had more, but not a ton). I think it is definitely nitpicking to declare a guy with three gold gloves to be average behind the plate. Yes, Molina was a better defensive receiver, but how much better would he have to be to make up for the offensive differences? I live in (near) Chicago, and when Harold Baines candidacy was being presented, the fans there lauded him like he was the second coming of Roberto Clemente. Baines is certainly a lesser candidate than Mauer, and yet we as Twins fans can’t seem to get all the way behind him.
  7. Rod Carews Birthday
    Pitching injuries are an unpredictable lot, so I think the best bet is to just put guys out there as much as possible and try to build some depth behind them. If reasonably healthy (a big if, but somebody has to be healthy!), Lopez should push 200 innings because he's that good and we want him out there as much as possible. Ryan should be able to push to 180 or so, as should Ober. That leaves Varland, who could get to 150 and Paddack, who I think will be allowed to push 150 as well. Now, at least one of those guys will get hurt, but I don't see any really big limitations being placed on any of them. The depth behind them at this point is pretty thin, which is why I think we'll see a trade for a starter so Varland becomes the depth much like Ober was last season. I also think they will sign a cheap, journeyman, AAAA guy or formerly good guy like Dallas Keuchel just for some insurance at AAA. Outside of that, we're down to SWR, who doesn't seem ready; Festa, who may be ready, and old friend Randy Dobnak.
  8. Rod Carews Birthday
    @Parker Hageman, you are definitely correct in that we can be very glad that the Twins didn't listen to me and a whole bunch of other fans who would have liked to see the proverbial "bag of balls" trade sometime in June, 2023. It wound up being the best trade that wasn't made. Now the question for everyone is whether they think the second half of last season is the new norm, the crazy outlier, or something else. If we think it is the new normal (or close to it at least), then the Twins definitely need to keep Kepler around. However, if we/they think it is a fluky aberration then it is definitely time to trade him now, while his production has inflated his trade value. Fangraphs has him at a 112 OPS+ prediction. What do you think? Can it continue or should the Twins sell him off while the price is decent? I'm completely on the fence. I loved his second half, but I remember living through the previous couple of years as well.
  9. Rod Carews Birthday
    I don't know that I would call him a one hit wonder, but it is extremely unusual for a player to win an MVP award but really not having any other year that would make him close. He was unquestionably great in 1965, but at best OK outside of that. Strange and unfortunate.
  10. Rod Carews Birthday
    I really enjoyed the article and rankings. There are plenty of unimportant nits to be picked, but the overall picture you presented was terrific. I am struck by how much better and how much better balanced (pitching/hitting, established/prospect) it is than it would have been five or so years ago. If the prospects develop the way they are supposed to and we can avoid catastrophic injuries, the Twins could be in for a few years of being real contenders. Buxton (the elephant in the room. . . every room) continues to confound. What on Earth do you do with him? Yes, if he's healthy and producing, all is great, but really. What are the odds of that? I just hope that he plays all the time when he can, and when he is injured (with a much lower bar than last year), he's out to the injured list until he can be healthy again. They just can't repeat last year's debacle.
  11. Rod Carews Birthday
    It's not crazy, but it does make the outfield look like this: RF Wallner. He'll be just fine. I look forward to it. LF Larnach, He could have some issues but he needs a chance to turn the corner (and not get hurt doing so). CF Still a mess, but likely Castro/Martin/Gordon. I think there is a workable situation in there. It just doesn't look very traditional from a daily lineup perspective. Seems a little unstable, but for the right return and to free up money for a pitching acquisition, I could be talked into it. Plus, as you said, being able to poach someone from the Rockies has some appeal.
  12. Rod Carews Birthday
    It may be good to temper the expectations. Calling the competition at AAA inferior at this point seems a little premature.
  13. Rod Carews Birthday
    Sorry if my intent was not clear here. My point is that some fans are crowning Brooks Lee to be the next Mike Trout or saying he's going to be an immediate star who "hits and fields better than Carlos Correa by 2025". If this were to be the case, his numbers would be off the charts in the minor leagues, which they are not. I think he will develop into a good player, but the hyperbole that I read does him and the Twins a disservice. Give him some time to develop and some patience when he comes up. With what Lewis, Julien, and Wallner did last year, the expectations could get out of line a little. A good outcome as a rookie for Brooks Lee would be what those guys did. I'll be thrilled if he exceeds that, whenever it may occur.
  14. Rod Carews Birthday
    You're right, it's uncommon, but not unheard of. If Lee is to be the superstar that people are wishing for, he needs some better numbers than he has put up so far in the minor leagues. He may become very good, but he's not there yet.
  15. Rod Carews Birthday
    Winder strikes me as a guy without a lot of trade value that could be a throw in on a larger package for a good starter. Unfortunately, he also seems like a guy who could develop into a terrific relief arm for somebody else if we do that. That would be kind of painful. Let's hope he figures it out this spring.
  16. Rod Carews Birthday
    A truly fun group to watch, but by the end of the season were lacking pitching depth to compete in the playoffs. They certainly get extra points for just being able to punish the baseball though. Go Bomba Squad!
  17. Rod Carews Birthday
    Wow! To pay Teoscar Hernandez $23.5M is crazy. He's a version of Max Kepler that strikes out more and doesn't play as good of defense but happens to be right-handed. The Dodgers apparently have so much money they don't know what to do with it.
  18. Rod Carews Birthday
    If not now, when? I'm a big Polanco fan. I think he is quietly underrated. However, he Julien has essentially taken over second base with more help on the way in Lee (and if necessary Martin/Castro/Farmer). Second base is probably the single deepest position on the team, so the time to trade that value is now, not during late spring training when everyone can see that Polanco no longer really has a spot in the lineup and his trade value tanks. There is certainly concern about Julien hitting lefties. Now is the time to find that out, AND you still have Farmer around to mitigate that risk if it doesn't work out. If I remember correctly, people declared him a butcher in the field early last season, and by the time the end of the season came around, he had better defensive numbers than Polanco. From everything I've read and seen, he appears to be a smart guy and an excellent athlete with a great work ethic. He'll figure out lefties. If the outfield depth were there, I would rather trade Kepler, but it's not. Too much upheaval there. Trade Polanco now, while he still has good value.
  19. Rod Carews Birthday
    It’s still a little early to know for sure what the depth situation will actually wind up being, but I think the Twins are willing to roll the dice and say that they have a bunch of minor league guys that are ready to take a step forward and be valuable. Remember, in addition to the depth they signed, they got a pretty wonderful bounce from Julien, Lewis, and Wallner. So, depth wise: Farmer is back (for now), Castro is back. Miranda seems like a reasonable choice for RH bat/platoon 1B. Austin Martin and a cast of several more seem like they could handle the CF situation. Those might not all work out, but they are not without upside. If the budget needs to be what it needs to be, then I’m glad these young players seem capable of filling in when necessary.
  20. Rod Carews Birthday
    While Plouffe had a reasonable big league career, I think the author was getting at the fact that he didn’t live up to the high expectations for his draft position. Better examples might have been Niko Goodrum (2nd round) or Nick Gordon (1st round) or Levi Michael (1st round).
  21. Rod Carews Birthday
    I like the top five a lot, and I agree that #’s 1 - 3 could easily be juggled. It doesn’t matter though. They are all very nice to have. I think there has to be some concern (as you voiced) that Brooks Lee is just a guy with a solid floor but not that much upside. He “can’t miss” but can he ever be an All-star? In order to warrant the kind of love that Twins fans are giving him, he needs to really tear up a level or two. Maybe it’s this year, but if he’s going to be a big star, he should be doing that against minor league competition as (many of) those will be his peers someday in the majors. I know he’s young, but future stars often put up video game numbers in A and AA ball. Don’t misunderstand. Solid is good, but I’m hoping for a real breakout that makes him worthy of the adulation.
  22. Rod Carews Birthday
    Very funny! If this isn’t a thing for the Twins front office, it probably should be!
  23. Rod Carews Birthday
    This is the kind of under the radar move that teams (including the Twins) do all the time. There's a pretty good chance it's a nothingburger, but there's also a greater than zero chance that he could be a useful part of a bullpen. In Jensen's case, it is obviously a bet on the talent level that made him a first rounder a few years back. If nothing comes of it, OK, but it's worth the shot. This is a normal winter signing.
  24. Rod Carews Birthday
    Correa is a tough one to evaluate going forward. I believe (but don't really know) that the next few years will be much better offensively than 2023, and if so, he deserves the #6 ranking, and probably more. However, this could also be the start of a precipitous death spiral for his career which would be pretty terrible. Let's hope I'm on the right side of that guess because his contribution will be really important. Some are convinced that Brooks Lee will take over shortstop in a year or two, but that seems pretty doubtful given the kind of defense that Correa plays -- yes I know that some of the metrics didn't love him last year but he certainly passes (aces) the eye test. I have to say I also applaud your (non)take on Byron Buxton. Since there are only five spots left and five obvious candidates for them without Buxton, I'm assuming he was left off the list. I am in complete agreement, as you can't be valuable to your team if you aren't actually available to play. At his best, he is/was very high impact and undoubtedly top 5, but in his current state I would rather have players 16 through 20 on your list than Buxton. I hope I am very wrong on this, but I think his remaining time with the team is likely to be pretty painful. So who's #1? Lewis, Jenkins, or Lopez? I'm going with Lewis but it's an easy argument to make for any of the three.
  25. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think it's less about glorifying and more about excitement a ball like that can create. Not all exciting moments are necessarily moments of beauty, but they sure make the game interesting. If every player hit the ball the same, it wouldn't be as much fun to watch. It would be very efficient, but not so much fun.
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