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Rod Carews Birthday

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Everything posted by Rod Carews Birthday

  1. Rod Carews Birthday
    @Parker Hageman, you are definitely correct in that we can be very glad that the Twins didn't listen to me and a whole bunch of other fans who would have liked to see the proverbial "bag of balls" trade sometime in June, 2023. It wound up being the best trade that wasn't made. Now the question for everyone is whether they think the second half of last season is the new norm, the crazy outlier, or something else. If we think it is the new normal (or close to it at least), then the Twins definitely need to keep Kepler around. However, if we/they think it is a fluky aberration then it is definitely time to trade him now, while his production has inflated his trade value. Fangraphs has him at a 112 OPS+ prediction. What do you think? Can it continue or should the Twins sell him off while the price is decent? I'm completely on the fence. I loved his second half, but I remember living through the previous couple of years as well.
  2. Rod Carews Birthday
    I don't know that I would call him a one hit wonder, but it is extremely unusual for a player to win an MVP award but really not having any other year that would make him close. He was unquestionably great in 1965, but at best OK outside of that. Strange and unfortunate.
  3. Rod Carews Birthday
    I really enjoyed the article and rankings. There are plenty of unimportant nits to be picked, but the overall picture you presented was terrific. I am struck by how much better and how much better balanced (pitching/hitting, established/prospect) it is than it would have been five or so years ago. If the prospects develop the way they are supposed to and we can avoid catastrophic injuries, the Twins could be in for a few years of being real contenders. Buxton (the elephant in the room. . . every room) continues to confound. What on Earth do you do with him? Yes, if he's healthy and producing, all is great, but really. What are the odds of that? I just hope that he plays all the time when he can, and when he is injured (with a much lower bar than last year), he's out to the injured list until he can be healthy again. They just can't repeat last year's debacle.
  4. Rod Carews Birthday
    It's not crazy, but it does make the outfield look like this: RF Wallner. He'll be just fine. I look forward to it. LF Larnach, He could have some issues but he needs a chance to turn the corner (and not get hurt doing so). CF Still a mess, but likely Castro/Martin/Gordon. I think there is a workable situation in there. It just doesn't look very traditional from a daily lineup perspective. Seems a little unstable, but for the right return and to free up money for a pitching acquisition, I could be talked into it. Plus, as you said, being able to poach someone from the Rockies has some appeal.
  5. Rod Carews Birthday
    It may be good to temper the expectations. Calling the competition at AAA inferior at this point seems a little premature.
  6. Rod Carews Birthday
    Sorry if my intent was not clear here. My point is that some fans are crowning Brooks Lee to be the next Mike Trout or saying he's going to be an immediate star who "hits and fields better than Carlos Correa by 2025". If this were to be the case, his numbers would be off the charts in the minor leagues, which they are not. I think he will develop into a good player, but the hyperbole that I read does him and the Twins a disservice. Give him some time to develop and some patience when he comes up. With what Lewis, Julien, and Wallner did last year, the expectations could get out of line a little. A good outcome as a rookie for Brooks Lee would be what those guys did. I'll be thrilled if he exceeds that, whenever it may occur.
  7. Rod Carews Birthday
    You're right, it's uncommon, but not unheard of. If Lee is to be the superstar that people are wishing for, he needs some better numbers than he has put up so far in the minor leagues. He may become very good, but he's not there yet.
  8. Rod Carews Birthday
    Winder strikes me as a guy without a lot of trade value that could be a throw in on a larger package for a good starter. Unfortunately, he also seems like a guy who could develop into a terrific relief arm for somebody else if we do that. That would be kind of painful. Let's hope he figures it out this spring.
  9. Rod Carews Birthday
    A truly fun group to watch, but by the end of the season were lacking pitching depth to compete in the playoffs. They certainly get extra points for just being able to punish the baseball though. Go Bomba Squad!
  10. Rod Carews Birthday
    Wow! To pay Teoscar Hernandez $23.5M is crazy. He's a version of Max Kepler that strikes out more and doesn't play as good of defense but happens to be right-handed. The Dodgers apparently have so much money they don't know what to do with it.
  11. Rod Carews Birthday
    If not now, when? I'm a big Polanco fan. I think he is quietly underrated. However, he Julien has essentially taken over second base with more help on the way in Lee (and if necessary Martin/Castro/Farmer). Second base is probably the single deepest position on the team, so the time to trade that value is now, not during late spring training when everyone can see that Polanco no longer really has a spot in the lineup and his trade value tanks. There is certainly concern about Julien hitting lefties. Now is the time to find that out, AND you still have Farmer around to mitigate that risk if it doesn't work out. If I remember correctly, people declared him a butcher in the field early last season, and by the time the end of the season came around, he had better defensive numbers than Polanco. From everything I've read and seen, he appears to be a smart guy and an excellent athlete with a great work ethic. He'll figure out lefties. If the outfield depth were there, I would rather trade Kepler, but it's not. Too much upheaval there. Trade Polanco now, while he still has good value.
  12. Rod Carews Birthday
    It’s still a little early to know for sure what the depth situation will actually wind up being, but I think the Twins are willing to roll the dice and say that they have a bunch of minor league guys that are ready to take a step forward and be valuable. Remember, in addition to the depth they signed, they got a pretty wonderful bounce from Julien, Lewis, and Wallner. So, depth wise: Farmer is back (for now), Castro is back. Miranda seems like a reasonable choice for RH bat/platoon 1B. Austin Martin and a cast of several more seem like they could handle the CF situation. Those might not all work out, but they are not without upside. If the budget needs to be what it needs to be, then I’m glad these young players seem capable of filling in when necessary.
  13. Rod Carews Birthday
    While Plouffe had a reasonable big league career, I think the author was getting at the fact that he didn’t live up to the high expectations for his draft position. Better examples might have been Niko Goodrum (2nd round) or Nick Gordon (1st round) or Levi Michael (1st round).
  14. Rod Carews Birthday
    I like the top five a lot, and I agree that #’s 1 - 3 could easily be juggled. It doesn’t matter though. They are all very nice to have. I think there has to be some concern (as you voiced) that Brooks Lee is just a guy with a solid floor but not that much upside. He “can’t miss” but can he ever be an All-star? In order to warrant the kind of love that Twins fans are giving him, he needs to really tear up a level or two. Maybe it’s this year, but if he’s going to be a big star, he should be doing that against minor league competition as (many of) those will be his peers someday in the majors. I know he’s young, but future stars often put up video game numbers in A and AA ball. Don’t misunderstand. Solid is good, but I’m hoping for a real breakout that makes him worthy of the adulation.
  15. Rod Carews Birthday
    Very funny! If this isn’t a thing for the Twins front office, it probably should be!
  16. Rod Carews Birthday
    This is the kind of under the radar move that teams (including the Twins) do all the time. There's a pretty good chance it's a nothingburger, but there's also a greater than zero chance that he could be a useful part of a bullpen. In Jensen's case, it is obviously a bet on the talent level that made him a first rounder a few years back. If nothing comes of it, OK, but it's worth the shot. This is a normal winter signing.
  17. Rod Carews Birthday
    Correa is a tough one to evaluate going forward. I believe (but don't really know) that the next few years will be much better offensively than 2023, and if so, he deserves the #6 ranking, and probably more. However, this could also be the start of a precipitous death spiral for his career which would be pretty terrible. Let's hope I'm on the right side of that guess because his contribution will be really important. Some are convinced that Brooks Lee will take over shortstop in a year or two, but that seems pretty doubtful given the kind of defense that Correa plays -- yes I know that some of the metrics didn't love him last year but he certainly passes (aces) the eye test. I have to say I also applaud your (non)take on Byron Buxton. Since there are only five spots left and five obvious candidates for them without Buxton, I'm assuming he was left off the list. I am in complete agreement, as you can't be valuable to your team if you aren't actually available to play. At his best, he is/was very high impact and undoubtedly top 5, but in his current state I would rather have players 16 through 20 on your list than Buxton. I hope I am very wrong on this, but I think his remaining time with the team is likely to be pretty painful. So who's #1? Lewis, Jenkins, or Lopez? I'm going with Lewis but it's an easy argument to make for any of the three.
  18. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think it's less about glorifying and more about excitement a ball like that can create. Not all exciting moments are necessarily moments of beauty, but they sure make the game interesting. If every player hit the ball the same, it wouldn't be as much fun to watch. It would be very efficient, but not so much fun.
  19. Rod Carews Birthday
    I find it pretty crazy that three of the top five hard hit balls wound up as doubles. Wow! Exciting to see! If they hit the wall that hard, I'm surprised they weren't singles.
  20. Rod Carews Birthday
    If you started with Polanco and Lee for Luzardo, with maybe a smaller minor league add, I think it is more realistic for both sides. Marlins don't want both Polanco and Kepler because of salary. Lee AND Rodriguez are too much to give up because of future value and needs for the Twins.
  21. Rod Carews Birthday
    Success mans that he performs like any other player who we would consider a success. We have to stop with the qualifiers like “play more games than last year”. He is either good and valuable or he’s not. If he could play like the average of Julien, Lewis, Correa, and Jeffers; I could like that.
  22. Rod Carews Birthday
    Yes it is. And people did it all the time.
  23. Rod Carews Birthday
    Great article. As fans, we may not like watching the strikeouts, but the approach worked as overall the offense did what it was supposed to do. While it would be nice to have players who could be more effective at situational hitting, that’s not who we have. We can compare Twins hitters to guys like DiMaggio, but those are all time greats. When we had a guy more like that in Joe Mauer, people complained about his “punch and Judy” approach. Strikeouts are a by.product that are here to stay. Get used to them.
  24. Rod Carews Birthday
    Evaluating a trade after the fact is something that needs to be done, but it always lacks the perspective of what was going on at the time of the trade. Take the Delmon Young trade — obviously a loss, but at the time we really needed the guy he was projected to become and we had three young starters. We chose to part with Garza over Baker and Slowey. We also decided to trade Jason Bartlett in the hopes that somebody like Alexi Casilla might take over the middle infield. We really wanted Young, the hitter, who never really developed and remained Young, the troubled soul. In retrospect it was a bad trade, but it wasn’t so illogical or crazy at the time. In retrospect, the Mahle trade looks that way as well. However, it basically came down to whether you wanted to trade Julien and Wallner or trade CES and Steer. They weren’t likely to all play on the same major league team in the future and the front office liked the odds of Julien and Wallner being successful long-term more than CES and Steer. I happen to agree with that as I think CES and Steer will only be successful in the short term. It was a swing for the fence move and one I would be happy to have them make again. Next time, I hope they don’t trade for a guy who winds up getting injured, but that’s pretty uncontrollable.
  25. Rod Carews Birthday
    The question is: Would you rather have Garver at about $12M/year for the next two years or Polanco? If the answer is yes, make the offer and trade Polanco. I'm on the fence. The right handed power (Yes, I now Polanco is a switch hitter) is a pretty big need on the team, but I'm not sure if he is healthy enough going forward to justify the expenditure/exchange.
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