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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty sure you can get into any Twins game for about $2 these days (not to mention nearby cheap/free parking options). It would be interesting to see what would happen to ticket prices on the secondary market, though, if such a promotion was offered!
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    They certainly have been playing the Angels tight. Would have been cool to see Gardy go all-out, though, and try to use Perkins in that jam in the 8th, or even just to pitch the 10th.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Gladden just called Nolasco a "Latin" in speculating he might work well with Pinto...
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Is this still true? I feel like they might be coasting in this regard too. The "Get to Know 'Em" campaign was fun back in the day, but it doesn't feel like they've had a particularly notable ad campaign or promotion since then. Might be part of the tone-deafness -- like they still expect the team to sell itself like it was the 2002-2010 team (as hinted at in Dave St. Peter's response to Olbermann), and the stadium to sell itself like 2010 every year. Great article, by the way!
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    We've been hearing variations of this for the last few years, though. "Player X is likely to regress some, sure, but Player Y is likely to improve too." Problem is, Player X has often regressed more than we like, and Player Y's improvement doesn't always materialize. It doesn't help that the "game changers" are always prospects 1-2 years away. I like this year's mix better too, but it's probably misleading to say that the Twins have only one major need to address this offseason. If that's the approach, they are unlikely to see significant improvement in 2015, which suggests they have more holes than that (even if we don't know all of them yet!).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Also note that this is NOT a median-type projection, but a very optimistic one. Would basically equal the 2013 Indians and exceed the 2013 Royals, who were the darlings of baseball for their sudden, dramatic improvements. It would also basically match or exceed the 2014 Astros and Marlins improvements, but both of those teams were starting from a lower baseline than the 2015 Twins so such improvements were relatively easier. Further, perhaps the most likely of your suggested 2 WAR outfielders (Cuddyer) has not posted a 2 WAR season since 2009, according to B-Ref (he does fare a bit better at Fangraphs, although his yearly WAR average during that time period is only 1.4). And who exactly did you have in mind as a 3 WAR starting pitcher? Overall, I like the optimism, but I feel like this is mostly a repeat of similar exercises done here the past few offseasons.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Another math quibble -- you are counting the full WAR of your FA signings, but adding them to our expected Sep. 1st, 2015 record. Those should be pro-rated to 5/6 or whatever. Not a big deal, but should knock another win off.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Me too. Obviously he's much younger and is still a good prospect, but he still has yet to dominate AA hitters, which is a big achievement gap from Meyer.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I would be shocked if Berrios made the Twins out of spring training. Actually, I would be surprised if he even opened in AAA. I think he gets another couple months at AA first.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Definitely looks like Milone is a bit more a project than some of us assumed, based on his history and numbers. In that regard, he's a lot like the two pitchers we got in the Revere trade (Worley and May) -- there is probably a reason these two trades looked so great on paper! Meyer from the Span trade could probably be added to this list, although his concern was mostly health, and he was still a low-minors guy when we got him. Still, I would make these trades any day of the week, given our recent team composition. Would rather roll the dice on possible starters than hang onto mediocre outfielders.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Bernier already has 85 days MLB service, most of it from 2013 with the Twins.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Probably Nolasco money (4/49), at best. Even with 2014, his record seems a rung below E. Santana, Garza, Jimenez from last winter. And there will be a couple "aces" drawing attention this winter too.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I would guess AA again for Berrios (Liriano path).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    jokin, that assumes that teams have $X to invest only in one position. Like I alluded to, even if the FA 3B crop is weak, that does not mean they would be willing to give up prospect/talent of note for Plouffe. They could invest that $X in another spot and go with a young/cheap player themselves at 3B.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Oliveros gives me a Jim Hoey vibe. Minor league flamethrower, missed age 25 season, assigned to AA past when his age would suggest... although to be fair, Hoey's control really took a nosedive after that missed season, while Oliveros has thus far maintained his career rates. Could help him in a MLB transition. Glad we are giving him a look. (And would have had nothing against giving Hoey a look -- as a waiver claim or minor league free agent, NOT a trade centerpiece... arg...)
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Herrmann could easily be safe for 2015. The Twins currently have nothing notable at catcher at either AA or AAA, outside of Herrmann and Pinto (not to mention nothing of note as MLB backup). Heck, not much for AAA outfielders either, at least not to open 2015. Bernier, Rule 5? You are aware of his age?
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Minor correction: Thompson was already called up a couple days ago. Also, Romero (or Guerra, or whomever) not being on the 40-man should not be an issue at this point, given the names of the non-callups you list. Florimon is a lock to be removed from the 40-man after the season anyway, no reason he could not be removed now. Pino as well, in light of his injury. Cola and Johnson probably too, even though they technically still have options for 2015, they are not the age/quality of players you generally want to protect on the 40-man for multiple offseasons (both were already protected last winter, and provided little benefit in 2014 -- unlikely that repeats itself). None of those guys should have any trade value in the next 2 months either, so there is no real benefit to waiting to cut them... although aybe we're hoping to sell them to South Korea again...
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Positional flexibility? Possibly being able to move to first base or corner outfield is a trait shared by, what, 90% of MLB position players? Unless you are suggesting Plouffe could move back to the middle infield... Also, Plouffe's 3 years of control are nice, but I'm not sure they are particularly "cheap" anymore -- they could easily net him $15 mil total in arbitration, even if he loses some of his 2014 performance gains. The fact that they aren't guaranteed is a nice bonus, but even for teams on a budget where Plouffe could be a modest upgrade, that projected money is not insignificant, and could easily be invested in another position while the team tolerated a slightly-worse-than-Plouffe younger/cheaper player at 3B (if not put toward a better 3B outright). Again, he's not a bad player, but his best role is 3B stopgap, and he's on the perfect team for that right now.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Another problem with looking at Plouffe's stats and ranks right now is that he's considered a streaky hitter who is currently on a hot streak. There have been several points this season where folks here have positively referenced his .740-.750 OPS (or higher, in April/May), and each time it has drifted back down closer to .700.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Brian: no mention of Pryor or Johnson in Seth's article about September call-ups...
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. We already had an open one, then Deduno and Ibarra were removed. (EDIT: stringer has a more accurate description below. Suffice to say, the Twins math is correct. ) Curious why Pino hasn't been removed yet -- I can't imagine they will need to protect him this winter, given his age, history, and injury. Kris Johnson being omitted from call-ups does not bode well for him either.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Reports say that Deduno was claimed on irrevocable waivers -- so no, TR could not pull him back. This wasn't a trade waiver scenario -- this was trying to send Deduno to AAA and get him off the roster for someone else (presumably the non-roster September callups). Not a big deal at the moment, but if Swarzak survives the winter on the 40-man (and/or Johnson/Pino), it will look like a very questionable decision.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Really? Maybe above average by a hair, at the moment. Over at Fangraphs, Plouffe ranks 13th in wRC+ out of 26 qualified MLB 3B. And that's his career peak performance thus far. The past few seasons, he's been ranked between 20-25, in the lower third of MLB 3B (the same place Twins 3B were ranked during the "dark years" at the position from 2005-2011 too). http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d Most of his "above average" 2014 value is due to defense... which Fangraphs ranked as notably below average prior to 2014 too. And he turns 29 next year, and will probably be owed ~$18 mil over the next 3 years if he keeps this up. And ashburyjohn highlights the problem with even this ranking -- looking over that list, even though Plouffe ranks 13th, most of the teams below him probably aren't interested in "upgrading" to Plouffe (Rays, Mets, Tigers, Red Sox, for starters). He's a decent enough stopgap, but he's not really a plus player or great trade bait.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe because he was sent back to Rochester in August 2013? Not clear, but perhaps the criteria is starters on the roster Sep. 1st...
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Worley was a bigger head-scratcher, since it was in spring training, and we basically had his rights for the full season ahead to try to get him straightened out without taking up a 40-man roster spot. If they were planning to cut Deduno in the offseason anyway, this just moves it up a month. If they wanted to sneak him through waivers and sign him back, seems like the offseason would be a better time for it (even if he cleared waivers now, he'd be a minor league free agent after the season).
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