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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. Deduno isn't even arb-eligible next year. I guess you can make the argument that both he and Swarzak should be gone, but it's not clear that Deduno should have gone first. Interesting that one of the top priority teams claimed him.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Won't all those guys become (minor league) free agents at the end of season anyway, if they are not on the 40-man? I think Oliveros, Romero, and Guerra were all (minor league) free agents last offseason, and simply re-signed with the Twins (they all have 6+ years of minor league service). At this point, a month of MLB service and salary might be good incentive for them to sign back here (if we want them back), even if they are taken back off the 40-man roster.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Although, on the other hand, it's fairly easy to be frank about this stuff when ownership has your back to this extent.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, last year at this time, Mauer was largely considered a "set" option at catcher, just temporarily shelved. At that time, plenty of people here also thought Florimon was an asset going forward at SS. And lots of people here also said we shouldn't bother getting a new OF for 2014, because we had guys in the corners and our CF of the future would be up by midseason (perhaps he was, just not the guy people were referring to ). Last year at this time, people were also probably asking, how can we improve on ~105 OPS+ at 1B? Sounds like this year too. The rotation outlook was indeed worse -- god bless Phil Hughes! -- and I like our position player mix better now, but there are some similarities.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Methinks you picked the wrong team to be a fan of! Or perhaps more accurately, the team picked the wrong fan.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Kepler also had a .172 ISO over 29 games from April 25 - June 19. Heck, he had a .187 ISO last season (admittedly shortened by injury). That kind of "peak" ISO just isn't that impressive, for a corner player who is no longer particularly young for his league. I'm pretty sure that's the more likely conclusion here, rather than BP somehow missed Kepler's last month. It's a mildly encouraging performance, to be sure, but not anything to change scouting reports over (yet).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, 3 other teams saw fit to let Hendriks go this past year so far too (including another rebuilding club). He is obviously not a point in Anderson's favor, but he is not a demerit either.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Cabrera was just one example. The record Latin American bonus was still under $2.5 mil almost 10 years later, when the Twins MLB payroll was $71 mil.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Tell how much that has to do with anything, when another team offers 4X the signing bonus?
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    That just doesn't sound right. The "Old Man" gladly approved $3.5 mil for Ramon Ortiz, etc., but would NEVER sign off on a $2 mil bonus for an elite amateur? Maybe the "Old Man" resisted investing more in international scouting and academies, etc, which is great to see reversed, but it has almost nothing to do with competing for guys like Miguel Cabrera. The whole world wanted Miguel Sano, it didn't take an academy or an army of scouts to sign him, it took an aggressive cash bid.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    That kind of infrastructure spending is great, but it is irrelevant to signing known potential elite level amateurs. We apparently had a Venezuelan academy where Miguel Cabrera played -- didn't matter one whit when teams were bidding $2 mil for him, and we offered substantially less. And I have no problem with scouting/signing in Australia and Europe, but it was a VERY poor substitute for being aggressive and spending a little cash in Latin America. Also, my primary criticisms are pre-2012 (when the amateur spending caps were put in place). Obviously, since then, we are more or less on equal footing with other teams in this regard (see Buxton and others), but I think the conservative "avoid bidding like the plague" philosophy still informs many other decisions (mainly MLB FA, Cuban/Asian FAs).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I am genuinely curious: do you have cite for that claim (that the Twins had the 2nd highest bid on Cabrera)? I've heard it before, but was unable to find anything to back it up. The only thing I could find was this from Bleacher Report (which erroneously listed Cabrera's bonus as $1 mil instead of $1.8 so I'm not sure how much to trust it), claiming the Twins offer was only one-fourth that of the Marlins: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/203364-twins-preparing-for-an-international-affair The Twins were not among the teams listed as high bidders in this news account of the signing at the time: http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/1999-07-03/sports/9907030435_1_miguel-cabrera-scouts-dombrowski
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    They acknowledged something in regards to this back in 2007? Do you have a cite? What exactly highlighted this problem to them, considering it was the same people in charge at that time (and basically the same people principally in charge today)? The "above average" international budget for academies and scouting, while nice, is irrelevant to actually competing for and signing elite level talent. Outside of Sano, I see no real evidence they pursued a different class of player in the amateur markets from 2007-2011 (before the draft/international spending caps were put in place). Someone mentioned Kepler, but his bonus was only $800k and the Twins have never had a problem in markets with little competition (Australia and Europe).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    You really think Cespedes, Puig, and Abreu are going to "bust"? That's a really weird argument. Cespedes has been the "worst" of the three, and he's averaged 3.5 rWAR per season the last 3 years already, and he's only under contract for one more. Puig and Abreu are on pace for 5 rWAR seasons this year -- they could both "bust" and still be the best position player on the Twins roster. I actually have no problem with passing on Rusney Castillo at $72 mil, or passing on any of these deals in isolation -- but I'm really scratching my head why the Twins never ponied up a mere $2-$3 million for ANY elite amateurs before Sano. Or even $30-40 mil for elite Cuban players before their market exploded. And I'm not trying to harp on the past -- I think the same thinking/strategy that informed those decisions is the driving force behind the Twins current actions, NOT the market or the talents of the individual players. Which is a disappointing way to run/build/re-build a ballclub, from this fan's point of view -- I want the best baseball minds identifying and pursuing the best baseball talent they can find, not simply the best talent they don't have to aggressively bid for.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I actually wouldn't mind that, I suppose, if Pinto was actually playing a lot of catcher in AAA and could honestly expect to assume a good share of MLB catching duties in the near future. Does not appear to have been the case this year...
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, forgot him. I think he was the last Twins example, and that was 7 years ago. Interesting that the three 21st century examples I can think of now (Santana, Liriano, and Perkins) were all left-handed. All also came up to relatively full rotations, which should not be a concern for Meyer at the moment.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    In Cabrera's specific case, sure it's a hindsight argument. But the Twins under Terry Ryan NEVER signed a major international prospect. By the time TR left in 2007, the Twins MLB payroll was $71 million, and the RECORD HIGH international amateur prospect (non-Cuban) bonus at that time was still only $2.44 million. Nor did they ever pay a higher than expected draft bonus. Both problems have been somewhat mitigated by new slotting/cap rules, but it's silly to pretend that the Twins and TR were not way behind the curve here, with really no one but themselves to blame. (As an aside: do you have a source for the Twins being the 2nd highest bidder for Cabrera? I know they had a bid, but I do not believe it was that competitive.)
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. Dealing Pinto would drop our 2015 catcher depth to 2011 levels (with an older/worse projected MLB starter, to boot), and we all remember how that went.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Passing up Miguel Cabrera for $2 million (and virtually every other top international free agent before Sano, and before slotting / spending caps) is a sound business practice in pro baseball? If you think you have ANY ability at all to somewhat discern elite level potential in amateurs (I don't, but top-level GMs and scouts should), occasionally betting a couple million on such players is (was) the best investment a baseball team can make.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Baker was never used out of the bullpen regularly. I seem to think Liriano was the last Twins pitching prospect to get that treatment, and Santana before him. (To be fair, they haven't had a lot of pitching prospects in the last 5 years, and they certainly have not had a full rotation during that time either!)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't advocate Pinto to DH, Mauer to LF, Vargas to 1B full time, but I think it is perfectly acceptable for 50 games a season or whatever, until/unless we get a better LF option.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    That is true, but the gains/losses from defense at 1B are pretty minor. I think the positional/roster flexibilty gains more than cancel it out if you're only doing it 60 games a season or so.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Kepler and Thorpe got a combined $1.3 mil. You're basically saying the Twins aren't risk averse, as long as they don't have to spend much money. But money is really the only risk in these cases. So yes, they are risk-averse.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I for one never suggested Gibson or May would be a competent MLB pitcher from day 1. And I am pretty sure Gibson would not have been a league-average MLB SP on opening day 2014 without several months of MLB time in 2013, as poor as it was. I think it's more than a little arrogant to think that "the guys who watch these players every day" know best, after an extended recent stretch of poor records/drafts/developments as compared to their peers (admittedly looking better lately in the lower minors).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Calling him up in June almost certainly makes him a better player in August, as opposed to calling him up in August. (And almost certainly gives you more/better information going into the offseason, if not making the pitcher better for opening day 2015.)
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