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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't mean to infer he lasted a long time on waivers in 2012 due to (lack of) talent alone. In fact, I noted that his roster status situation was actually BETTER in November 2012 than it is now -- he still had less than 3 years service time, so someone could have claimed him and tried to pass him through waivers again to assign him outright to AAA (much like Hendriks this past offseason, or Parmelee, Worley, etc. this past spring). Now, a claiming team has no alternative to guaranteeing him a 40-man spot the whole winter, a 25-man spot in the spring, and a ~$1.5 mil arb salary (excepting letting him become a free agent again). Letting him pass through waivers this offseason, become a free agent, then trying to sign him to a minor league deal if interested, offers a TON more flexibility for the team. He may still have interested suitors, but I'm not sure anyone would be willing to surrender that flexibility for a 28 y.o. pinch runner. Agreed, and that's how he's spent 6 years on 40-man rosters and accumulated 4.6 years of MLB service time despite a career 68 OPS+ and negative defensive WAR (plus a career .571 OPS at AAA to boot). But there's a limit to chances without any kind of production, and I think getting DFA'd midseason just shy of one's 28th birthday is a pretty clear indicator that your guaranteed MLB roster spot days are over.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Midseason waiver claims are easier, there just isn't much opportunity cost to use the roster spot temporarily. November 2012, he was waived and almost every NL team passed on him. And he was barely a year removed from being part of the Bourn trade then, and actually could have been outrighted to AAA if he cleared waivers. I am highly skeptical that anyone will have room for an older, more limited, more expensive, and less flexible player just before free agency and the Rule 5 draft.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Obviously these kind of stats don't matter much for an athlete's work within the actual competition. And I don't think anyone here is saying that they do. I think they appreciate that, when reviewing his own performances, Perkins uses stats that best reflect his actual contribution. Dude's not hung up on saves or ERA (or pitcher wins for starters, or AVG/RBI for hitters), and is probably less likely to "rest on his laurels" by meeting a mostly meaningless benchmark. (Although it's probably easiest to ignore "traditional" stats as a relief pitcher -- heck, if I played the game, I'd probably like to boost my BA from .299 to .300 on the last day of the season, or get my 100th RBI rather than take a walk, or gun for my 20th win even if I was supposed to rest for the playoffs or something. The influence of the backs of baseball cards has been strong!) And, of course, prepping and game-planning with the aid of Pitch F/X should be mandatory, and it's good to hear someone on the Twins uses it.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    If Buxton forces his way up by July 2015, and Escobar still deserves the starting SS job at that time, AND we're healthy and productive at 2B/3B... whatever Santana produces (and wherever he does it) will be gravy. (To say nothing of Jorge "<50 PA above A-ball" Polanco "knocking on the door" of MLB on his 22nd birthday.) You may as well start speculating on what happens to Gibson when Meyer, May, and Berrios all join the rotation mid-2015! I'd guess that, if they can stay league-average (or better) hitters, Santana and Escobar are more likely to fill a "super-utility" position than Plouffe, as some have speculated around here. The added ability to play middle IF and perhaps CF are huge for such a player having value (not to mention trade value).
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I wonder if the Twins have their own means of searching, reviewing, dissecting Pitch FX and related data? Perkins really shouldn't have to go to brooksbaseball.net after each appearance. And if that's the only way to get that data in the Twins clubhouse, I would imagine that Gardy and Rick Anderson and most of the other players don't see it (which could be what Brock is alluding to here). Now that I think of it, working with large data sets was a primary requirement for the recent front office job posting, so maybe that is finally in the works. If that's the case, they've got to be behind the curve on this, though, and I'm not sure how much hiring a Visual Studio proficient programmer is going to help them...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Emphasis mine -- I think this is why drjim was confused, thinking Perkins was employing these on the mound. Most of the article deals with results like FIP, BABIP, LD%, etc. Doesn't really give Perk an advantage, just some context when reviewing his past performance. Correia could have equal awareness of these stats and still be incapable of pitching any better. The PitchFX stuff, which is mentioned but not detailed in the article, is much more important, of course. But I would hope reviewing PitchFX and applying lessons learned from it would be standard operating procedure at the big league level (if not minor league level too, in preparation for doing it at the big league level). Is that's not the case here, then shame on the Twins.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    As others probably said better, I don't think Perkins uses most of these stats on the mound. Reviewing PitchFX results is referenced in the article too, and I imagine that has more in-game practicality.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Bartlett played 3 out of 6 games, but no starts and only 4 PA. And his last 3 PA came in an early-game emergency appearance, subbing for an injured Willingham in the 2nd inning. That's basically been Schafer's usage in 2014 too (pinch runner, pinch hit for the pitcher, etc.), averaging less than 1 PA per team game.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know -- for someone else to claim Schafer from the Twins, they'd have to give him a roster spot through the winter and arbitration too. I don't see that happening for a 28 year old "proven" pinch runner, particularly if he doesn't inspire the Twins to keep him on the 40-man roster after this 2014 audition. And if he clears waivers, he's pretty much up for grabs as a non-roster minor league invite to spring training, Twins included.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, Santana finished 2013 with perhaps his best extended streak of minor league hitting ever (.856 OPS from July 27 onward, 157 PA). Selective endpoints for sure, but roughly last calendar year, Santana's got a .803 OPS in 485 PA, .392 BABIP, with BB% and K% more or less matching his 2014 MLB rates so far. Biggest drag on that is obviously his .630 AAA OPS from the beginning of this season (even then he had a .377 BABIP).
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Just to give you an idea where Santana is at, he's got 211 MLB PAs so far with a .859 OPS and a 46:11 K:BB ratio. Pinto at 211 PA had a career .869 OPS and 50:25 K:BB ratio. This was just about 3 weeks before he was demoted this year. (Also brought to mind 2005 Jeff Francouer, OPS of .966 after 211 PA, 42:8 K:BB ratio.) Interesting thing about Santana's minor league career is, it doesn't look particularly streaky. August was his best month by OPS in both 2012 and 2013.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    The flip side of that, of course, is that due to their record, the 2014 Twins shouldn't really care if Parmelee has to play CF for 50 PA over 2 months, or Hermann/Polanco/Escobar/Nunez/Arcia etc. And in less than a month, they can all be on the active roster at the same time too. That said, I'm all for taking a flier on Schafer. I'd even be willing to sit Escobar some to get a look at Schafer in CF (and by extension, Santana at SS).
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Not quite -- arbitration awards are only 1/6 guaranteed before March 15, I believe. That's how the Royals signed Bonifacio last winter to $3.5 mil (actually avoided arbitration, but same rule applied), and were able to cut him in February and only pay him ~$600k. Given that Schafer has been terrible this year, he probably won't get much (if any) raise in arbitration, say $1.5 mil? Then the Twins could cut him by March 15th (I think) and only owe him $250k. The 40-man roster spot over the winter should be the more valuable thing. I wouldn't be surprised if we cut him and tried to re-sign him to a minor league deal.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Tanaka's got to get some votes, even if his season is done, correct?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    If Farris was added to the 40-man right now, he would only burn an option year if he was sent back to AAA for 20 days, which would be pretty unlikely since the AAA ends in about 30 days anyway.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure. The Twins didn't seem to like his defense out there a few years ago. If it was Cuddyer-level defense, or a year-plus of that level while he adjusts, I don't think his 95-100 OPS+ bat would play in the corner OF. I don't think he has much value as a utility guy unless he makes a triumphant return to the middle infield, and all signs suggest that is never happening. His best play is affordable average stopgap 3B.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree with Doc and Seth that the Twins generally don't promote slowly. Although Santana's initial promotion didn't surprise me -- he was on the 40-man roster and had a decent spring.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, Parker, you've had similar articles this year about Plouffe and Parmelee, both of whom have reverted to career norms shortly thereafter. (Actually, maybe you should stop posting these articles about Twins who are hitting well. Post a few about good White Sox hitters for a change. ) Mechanical changes leading to a temporary different result, while not "luck" in the traditional sense, is probably pretty close to "baseball luck" as commonly understood. That said, I pretty much agree with you, although the ground-ball rate and lack of power trouble me to a degree, especially since the walk rate increase isn't that huge and he's not likely to have a lot of protection in the Twins lineup. Seems like pitchers and fielders are going to have a lot of latitude to adjust on this guy, and I'm not sure if any of his changes are significant enough to withstand those tests.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    You know, I almost agree with you, but I think Plouffe is basically a poor man's Cuddyer right now, and always has been. Cuddy was a much higher draft pick, was moved off short after one minor league season, and was still a top 20 prospect as a corner OF -- he was always a prospect for his bat. So after he hovered around a 100 OPS+ for his first 1100 PA, it wasn't all that surprising when he kicked it up a notch to 130 peak, 115 average at age 27. Plouffe was drafted lower, was never ranked, and was mostly left to rot at SS in AAA. He certainly wasn't drafted for his glove, but his offense never projected well enough to survive anywhere else. Not that Plouffe couldn't still improve now, but pointing to an improvement for a better player doesn't really suggest anything about the likelihood of Plouffe doing it, particularly since Plouffe is already beyond the age and MLB playing time thresholds where Cuddyer saw his biggest improvement. Actually, I find it kind of odd that we regularly see articles and comments suggesting/predicting a Plouffe breakout, when it is quite clear from the statistical record that he already had a breakout in 2011-2012, at age 25-26, which allowed him to become the ~100 OPS+ hitter (and average 3B defender) you see today. It would be like expecting another breakout from Dozier next year, to 130 OPS+, or Perkins to a 250 ERA+ -- not impossible, but the odds have to be particularly low given what we know about the player's career trajectory already.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    If Meyer didn't have a tough game or stretch every now and again, he'd probably be a top 5 prospect in all of baseball. I know the fans get picked on a lot for having unrealistic expectations, but if this is why the Twins are holding him in AAA indefinitely, it feels like they are the ones with the unrealistic expectations for Meyer.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Is this like how we all knew that Pino was just getting a spot start to get May's turn lined up back in June, just before May was booked for the futures game? Or like how we all knew that ramping Meyer up to a pitch count of 96 right before the futures game meant he was simply going to stay in Minneapolis after the break? Someone might want to make sure the Twins are getting the memo on these things. Also, now that May is apparently settled... what do we all know about Meyer's arrival now?
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Could be a Swarzak replacement -- Anthony will be due something close to $2 mil in the offseason, while Deduno should have another full season until he's arbitration eligible. Of course, one of our AAA arms might be better than either of them in that role.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Cuddy was a dominant hitter almost his entire minor league career, was a top 20 prospect in all of MLB for multiple years even as a corner player, debuted a year and a half earlier, and logged about one season of play at AAA versus Plouffe stalling out at that level for 3-4 years. And he broke out as an above-league-average hitter a full year younger and 600 PA behind where Plouffe is now. Other than that, yeah, they're practically twins. The other problem with being a poor man's Cuddy was that Cuddy ultimately wasn't particularly valuable once he started getting expensive. He wound up being pretty brutal just about everywhere on the diamond (except maybe pitcher ), and while he's flashed a 125 OPS+ peak bat that Plouffe hasn't yet, he's alternated some poor seasons with the bat too, suggesting he's not a great bet as a DH either.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I was going to suggest this too, but it appears you have it copyrighted.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Seth, I love your content here, but you keep exaggerating Meyer's issues at AAA, in comparison to other pitchers. "Terrible" control and command? AAA strike percentage, 2014: Pino 64% May 64% Meyer 62% Darnell 62% Johnson 61% For comparison, MLB strike percentage, 2014: Hughes 73% Nolasco 63% Correia 62% Deduno 62% Gibson 61% Terrible is Pelfrey at 55%, or perhaps Liriano at 57% back in 2011. Almost every starter in the league is between 60-66%. Meyer's BB/9 this year is a career high, and about 25% above league average (and K/9 about 40% above average), but even that's a bit unfair to him due to the pitch limit he's had most of the season. Dude's had 11 starts with 0-2 ER allowed this year where he's been pulled with a pitch count around 80 or lower, and his BB/9 in those starts is 3.3, below league average. Basically, the pitch limit gives us the full effect of his poor/wild starts, and limits the quality of his good ones. If he was permitted to continue pitching in these starts like a normal pitcher, he would almost certainly have a walk rate right around his career (and league) average. Nothing about Meyer's season deserves the adjective "terrible" except possibly his lack of an MLB promotion so far.
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