Otto von Ballpark

Moved from the general trade deadline thread... Nolasco's career ERA+ was actually 94 when he signed the contract. Feldman's was a tick higher too. But generally, yeah, those could be some FA comparables. Right now, Milone could be looking at 3-5-7 salaries the next three years, right? Or maybe a little more if he goes year-to-year in arbitration. Still, a 3/15 deal for the cost of Sam Fuld sounds pretty good.

I've got news for you John: there is another trade deadline of August 31st! Willingham and Correia are probably more likely candidates for August waiver claims/trades anyway.

While I tend to agree, Milone would get decent money in FA, it would be better to use ERA+ to compare. He's behind Arroyo in that measure, and just a bit ahead of Feldman. Maybe a Hughes-esque 3/24, up to 3/30? Same age as Hughes last year, obviously better than Hughes 2013, but perhaps less pedigree/upside which still might count for something at age 27.

Oakland sure knows its pitching. 4 of their current starting 5 is under contract for 2015, they have a good swingman this year too (Pomeranz), and they will also have two young pitchers returning from surgery in 2015. Talk about dealing from depth! Without even looking at prospects, Milone is between 7-9 on their SP depth chart, and is due to start getting expensive this winter (first arbitration). (EDIT: a little further down their depth chart now that they added Lester too.) Oakland's 7-9 starters might be pretty good, although it does temper my enthusiasm a bit that they trust converted journeyman reliever Chavez and $6 mil free agent Hammel the rest of this season over Milone. (EDIT: Hammel might go to the pen for Lester, I guess.) Some other recently departed starters have left Oakland and found similar success elsewhere, at least for awhile: Gonzalez, Cahill, Colon, and perhaps now McCarthy in NY.

I like this deal too, but the reason Fister probably became a plus MLB starter with Detroit was a full +2.0 increase in K/9. (And now that his K rate is back down with Washington, he's thus far almost halved his BB/9 rate.) That said, Milone doesn't have to be a plus MLB starter to be a good return for Fuld -- maintaining his career 100 ERA+ would be sufficient.

Would probably be more fair to compare Gibson's 2014 to Blackburn's good seasons, where he had notably better BB and HR rates than those career rates. Gibson still seems to have a much better track record of GB and HR rates, though, and of course minor league K rates.

Another way to look at our "major" free agent signings this past offseason: We signed three pitchers who, over the previous two seasons, had collectively pitched to a 90 ERA+ and missed about 20% of their starts (add Correia's 2011-2012 and the collective ERA+ drops to 88). This season, they've pitched to a collective 81 ERA+ and missed 30% of starts so far (add Correia and the ERA+ holds at 81, or 80.5 to be exact). That's pretty mild in terms of bad luck, I'd say. Nolasco can change some of that going forward, but expectations based on actual past performance were pretty low for this group to begin with.

Top 100 prospects can have time in the MLB (Bogaerts at #2 this year, for example). The cut-off is basically rookie status (130 AB, 50 IP or 30 G). I just meant the Twins were unlikely to have any top prospects see first-half action in 2014, much less break camp with the club.

I know you are joking -- but I'm not sure I get it (or you are mis-remembering things). Morneau is the only Twin I can recall who was dealt to the Pirates, and he didn't do anything for them. Worley was sold. Liriano signed there as a free agent.

Nick, our disagreement over the definition of "major" is probably our core (or "major" ) disagreement in this thread. This has been a 63-66-66 win club the past 3 years. Their 3 ranked prospects who debuted in 2013 all more or less performed below replacement level as rookies. They had zero consensus top 100 prospects with AAA experience entering this season.They signed an innings eater as the first top 15 outside FA in franchise history. They brought back ~3/5 of the league's worst starting rotation, and ~7/9 of the league's third-worst run-scoring offense. They are now on pace for 73 wins this season, in late July. They are on schedule to debut at least one consensus top 100 prospect this year, next year, and the year after. That screams normal, average, median result to me. Not bad luck. I'm as disappointed about Sano and Mauer as anyone (and to a lesser extent, Buxton, as I didn't expect to see him this year anyway), but I try not to let that color my overall perception. This team has had plenty of good luck (Dozier, Suzuki, Escobar, Santana, May, etc.) and average luck (Plouffe, Pinto, etc.) too.

May missing 3 weeks of AAA before the futures game this season, and Meyer 2 months of AA last season, don't even register on this scale. That's just playing the game. Heck, May wasn't even supposed to be much of a SP prospect anymore, it could be considered quite lucky that he's back on the map this year. Buxton and Sano are the biggies, of course, but even then they went from fast-tracked elite prospects (age 20 debuts?) to more normal elite prospects (age 21-22 debuts), all while still a level or two away from the big leagues.

Major free agents, plural? I only see Nolasco. The only other one who could remotely be considered "major" was Hughes, and I like him and his deal but it's hard to see 3/24 on the open market qualifying as "major" in the context of modern MLB. His contract was 18th in total value this offseason, something like 28th in AAV. Maybe he was major to the Twins but that's primarily due to the sorry state of their SP corps and their other recent FA SP acquisitions. And that's a big reason why I don't view the 2014 season as a product of bad luck for the Twins. They basically did the bare minimum to patch the MLB rotation, and did absolutely nothing for the offense except hope for prospects who had yet to play at AAA (or even AA in the case of Buxton). This after they did less than the bare minimum in the FA market for 2013, and probably even 2012 too. (As an aside, Nolasco himself was weak as far as "major" FAs go: an innings eater, the least-regarded of a group seeking 4- to 5-year deals, the earliest to sign, the one with an agent friendly with the Twins front office... I don't know if it rises to the level of gross mismanagement, but the Twins haven't put much effort into -- or gotten much production out of -- free agency.)

To be fair, outside of the Sano deal (and to a lesser extent Kepler), Smith didn't really spend much either when it necessitated bidding on an open market. Most of his spending was contract extensions with a few lower-level free agent deals, much like TR. That seems to be TR's big bugaboo -- he avoids any player acquisition method that requires bidding, regardless of player quality. Cuba, Japan, pre-slotting drafts, pre-capped international guys -- TR has or is currently avoiding these like the plague, even though they have or previously had some of the best rates of return. Even for his biggest domestic free agent signing to date (Nolasco), TR targeted and got the least-regarded guy in the group seeking 4- to 5-year deals, seemingly because he was the most willing to sign early. And of course, all of his other FA deals have mostly been from the relative bargain bin, where the negotiating advantage is decidedly with the teams rather than the players. It was encouraging to see us at least mentioned late in the Garza and Ervin Santana sweepstakes, but those were fairly long-shot offers -- until he converts on one of them, it's hard to give him much credit.

Even Gonzalez wasn't that bad of a bomb -- he eventually signed for just 3 years, $12 million with a vesting option.

I am guessing this post is incomplete at the moment? I don't see anything beyond an intro and three image attachments, which I don't have permission to view.

Careful -- that's almost a 120 ERA+, which generally ranks #28 MLB among qualifiers any given season. When you debut that well, it can be very hard to get better, especially for a not-quite-elite prospect. And if you consistently get near that level, and avoid catastrophic injury, for 8+ seasons, that's a pretty darn good career. That was kind of the Radke recipe too (although he beats Garza by a bit in ERA+ and a fair amount in IP).

More accurately, Meyer is probably the best Twins pitching prospect since Garza. (Garza ranked #21 on BA's top 100 pre-2007, while Meyer is currently looking at 30-40 ranks on most comprehensive lists.) Garza-level MLB results for Meyer would be pretty good, although hopefully they come in a Twins uniform this time! You could also make the argument that he's only the best Twins pitching prospect since Gibson pre-surgery (ranked #34 by BA before 2011). I like Meyer's upside better, but Gibson isn't a bad comp for me in terms of modest expectations. Liriano, on the other hand, was a beast in his AAA debut at age 21, and rocketed up to BA's #6 ranking, elite prospect territory (and fully justified by his MLB rookie season). You could make the argument he was the best Twins pitching prospect ever, since Santana didn't really emerge until he was well past rookie status.

That's what I was getting at. Neither Meyer's BB rate nor his 2 month absence in 2013 necessitate him spending all (or virtually all) of 2014 in AAA. And even good teams with seemingly full rotations like the 2002 Twins have been able to work in young talent, all while limiting their innings and seeing how their skills play in MLB. It should be much easier for a team with less rotation stability and much lower expectations to contend like the 2014 Twins.

Hey now, I thought my disclaimer at the end was pretty clear. Maybe I will move it to the beginning.

I think the days of Hector Carrasco for Lew Ford have passed, even for Trader Terry. Although come to think of it, we could probably still get Lew Ford for Duensing, assuming we can convince the Long Island Ducks to give up their hitting coach.

diehardtwinsfan correctly notes that Plouffe's minor league record was straight-up mediocre until 2011. Plouffe was on the 40-man roster in 2009, and I think it says something that the Twins made Matt Tolbert their pennant-race and playoff starting 3B rather than even look at Plouffe (who had already played some 3B in both 2006 and 2008, as well as some 2B in 2008). Fortunately, in the intervening years (mostly 2011), Plouffe improved from minor-league mediocre to major-league mediocre.

I was just recalling Johan Santana's rise with the Twins, and it highlighted some parallels with Alex Meyer, so I thought I'd share my research. DISCLAIMER: In case it is not clear, in no way am I comparing Santana and Meyer in physical size, pitching style, or path to MLB, nor am I forecasting Santana-like season results or career for Meyer. Simply comparing how the two have been handled thus far in the season following a low-innings season. 2000 Santana : 2012 Meyer Obviously Santana was a Rule 5 pick who thus made MLB at age 21, but neither Santana nor Meyer had extensive pro innings prior to their "injury seasons". In any case, it is the following season (2001) where the Meyer implications really begin. 2001 Santana : 2013 Meyer Santana was injured most of 2001, missing nearly 4 months although he avoided surgery. He pitched only 43 innings that year, all in MLB though mostly out of the bullpen, and his 5.8 K/9 and 10.3 H/9 still suggested Rule 5 mopup man. Meyer's 2013 was a model of health and excellence by comparison, pitching 104 inning between AA, a rookie league rehab stint, and the Arizona Fall League (with a combined 11.0 K/9 and roughly league average 3.4 BB/9), plus an additional 15 IP at "fall instructional league" according to Mike Berardino (which he counted towards Meyer's season innings baseline, more on that later). 2002 Santana : 2014 Meyer In 2002, Santana opened the season at AAA and at age 23 started to become "classic Johan", K'ing 13.9 per 9 innings to lead the league although he also had a BB/9 rate of 5.0, 50% higher than the league rate at the time. Meyer's age 24 AAA debut hasn't been quite as dynamic, but his K/9 rate of 10.2 still leads among starters in his league, and his BB/9 rate is only 20% higher than the league rate. Despite the limited innings and the walks, Santana was recalled after only 48 AAA innings, in late May 2002, and proceeded to be a regular member of the rotation the next 3 months, skipped a couple times but starting 14 games with great results (10.9 K/9 and 6.9 H/9 as a starter) despite a still-high BB/9 rate (4.5). With a combined 139 IP (90 in MLB), Santana was sent to the bullpen at the beginning of September for 24 more bullpen innings through September and the playoffs. 157 regular season IP in total for Santana in 2002, plus 6 more in the playoffs. Meyer? He is still in AAA in late July, with 101 IP, despite extended MLB rotation openings in May, June, and July, and he is on pace for somewhere around 140 before September and a possible shutdown (Rob Antony was previously quoted as targeting a 30% innings increase, which would put him between 135-155 IP depending on whether you include fall instructional league innings in his 2013 baseline total). 2003 Santana : 2015 Meyer? Now, the 2002 Twins were contenders, so they obviously had more immediate incentive to deploy Johan in MLB, but while keeping his innings at a reasonable level (near Meyer's 2014 suggested limit), they still got plenty of information on him that season which was valuable going into 2003: while Johan was still pegged as starter #6, the Twins were able to stand pat on the FA SP market that winter, and only added Kenny Rogers on very favorable terms in late March after Eric Milton was was effectively lost for the season. As a bonus, they got some quality major league pitching for 2002, even if the pitcher in question wasn't yet a finished product. The 2014 Twins? August is a few days away, a possible Meyer shutdown maybe a month away, and I still have no idea where to count on Meyer (or May) in formulating our 2015 SP plan and depth chart.

I am trying to imagine the Twins promoting 20.5 year old Byron Buxton from AA while simultaneously holding Meyer and May promotions back to virtually their 25th birthdays...

It might help get them off our roster, but it won't improve return. Teams generally don't sell prospects, particularly not for ~$2 million or less.

Just read the full SweetSpot post. I think it's a bit of a stretch to lump in Trevor May missing 3 weeks (which got extended a few days more due to a rainout) and Meyer missing 2 months last summer (but avoiding surgery) as "major setbacks". And those are basically our only pitching prospect health issues since Gibson's surgery in 2011 (Kohl Stewart pending) -- I'd consider that to be pretty good fortune. We just haven't had many pitching prospects, or at least not many near-MLB ones. At the MLB pitching level, Nolasco has been the only guy markedly below prior performance levels, which definitely sucks, but it's also magnified since he is the only recipient of a notable FA salary on the staff -- their other FA starters have all had health/performance similar to previous levels and commensurate with their modest salaries. And again, on the offense, Buxton and Sano definitely hurt, but they are both still tentatively on track to debut in MLB not long after their 22nd birthdays. For now, their "major setbacks" seem more like corrections than anything too unusual. Pinto, Dozier, Escobar, Plouffe, Hicks, Arcia, Parmelee, Santana have all been pretty healthy, and Hicks seems like the only dramatic underperformer in that group (although I would question whether underperformance should be attributed to luck). I will be the first to say the Twins have been concussion unlucky. Outside of that, I don't think they've been particularly unlucky, though.