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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    The second-half 2014 Twins season is not all about winning. I see no reason we couldn't accommodate special restrictions on Meyer at the MLB level. I think Pino had 3 long relievers available behind him Tuesday night. And if the Twins were willing to move up their impending Swarzak/Deduno decision a couple months, they could easily have interchangeable long relievers with options too (much like they've been rotating starters with AAA the past couple months).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps, although to believe that, you have to believe TR waited three offseason to find his desired pitcher and contract, and that pitcher was Ricky Nolasco at 4 years, $49 million. I think it's more charitable to assume he was too passive for a few years, and had to somewhat force the Nolasco signing to compensate.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Altuve batted .361 with an OPS near 1.000. Castro was batting .376 with an OPS near 1.000 too. Both of those guys started their pro careers at age 17 as well. Yelich was rushed, but as you note he got 50 games at AA and hit quite well there and was a full year older than Buxton is now too. Upton signed a MLB contract upon being drafted, I think, so he was already on the 40-man roster. Posey was about 2 years older than Buxton is now. Actually only Upton and Castro were younger than Buxton at the time of their promotions.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed on the premise of the article -- I certainly endorse all of the trades made thus far in 2014. But this Pino trade suggestion is crazy (I know it's not yours, but Berardino's). Dude has been a minor league free agent (or simply sold outright) each of the past 4 offseasons. He just made his MLB debut at age 30 and has a 73 ERA+ in 10 starts. Solarte was traded by the Yankees in July, and he was a recent minor league free agent too, but he only just turned 27, has had an above-league average bat this season, some positional flexibility, and was primarily only traded to immediately replace the player the Yankees were acquiring to replace him (Headley). I know I was skeptical that we could trade Correia, but even he is in a whole different stratosphere of player value than Pino right now. I guess someone might claim Pino and take him off our hands for their own September audition, if we want to open yet another 40-man spot, but I would be shocked if we got anything back for him. (Cue TR making it happen. )
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I second this question, although I suspect Nick meant the Morales and Willingham swaps, not Correia.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't mean to derail this thread, so I will just conclude by saying that this position you describe is not mine at all, nor do I wish to have a discussion on that topic. Again, I was just saying that evidence suggests a thin FA SP market was not the primary factor in TR's signing of Correia. You seem to agree on that point, given your emphasis on the Twins rebuilding process at the time. I'd add a few additional factors too, but suffice to say, I don't think TR or the Twins were looking to add anything more than a Correia type pitcher/contract for 2013 regardless of what was on the market.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    He's not really like Meyer and May, though, who could realistically contribute from day 1 in 2015. Promoting him this September, after only 20 AA games of still unknown quality, to a noncontending team, would be virtually unprecedented in modern MLB, I think.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    The best players generally don't reach free agency, and the ones that do are staggered over many offseasons. The 20th highest FA contract in any one offseason is not particularly impressive. Anyway, my main point still stands: TR's behavior in the KC offseason was not very different from his previous offseason or any number of his other offseasons. His one move that seemed to really buck the trend was Nolasco and it appears to have been a bit of a reach to compensate for his inactivity in previous offseasons.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    It has very little to do with likely failure in September (although, if he's likely to fail, has yet to play above A-ball, and he's not on the roster, why do it?). He will get his extended reps in the AFL this year (another high-ish level that Buxton has yet to dominate).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty much this, although it seems a touch excessive when they didn't even go to these lengths for Gibson who missed an actual full calendar year of pitching, not just 2 months.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Vodka Dave's prognostication to the contrary, we've been hearing for a lot longer (Lavelle Neal reported it awhile back) that Meyer would not see MLB this season. I think that's been the plan all along. We've had basically 2 open rotation spots for over a month, and Florimon has been a walking DFA for some time now. And if health is the overriding factor in all this, I don't think a September audition is best for him. July-August like Gibson 2013 with a possible shutdown around Sep. 1st as needed would have been best, and would have been quite easy to accomplish out of the all-star break if not earlier. Heck, they could have even optioned Meyer back tomorrow and recalled him Sep. 1st to avoid using an option year and keep his service time down slightly (much like Gibson last year, although the option year was not a factor for him anymore).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm with Brock here -- as excited as I am to see Buxton ASAP, I'd actually be a little disappointed in the Twins for rushing him here in September. Remember the super-aggressive Mike Trout timeline? That would warrant a call-up about now, but Trout was healthy and had dominated AA for over half a season. Buxton will have all of 20 games at AA by Sep. 1st, and had yet to fully find his stroke at high-A this year much less dominate a higher level. I don't want Buxton's injury riddled season to hold him back too much, but it would be foolish to act like it didn't happen (and act like he instead dominated, in absentia, levels he has yet to play in).
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree with your overall take, but a "likely scenario" as a plus major leaguer is a bit too generous right now. At this point, his most likely / mean outcome is probably fringe AAA starter / MLB reliever (think Swarzak outside of 2013). Fien/Burton/Duensing would be an outcome a step or two above that.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    As for rank, it seems to be a slightly down year for AL SS -- this wRC+ would have only ranked 5th at the position in 2013 and 2012, and 8th in 2011 (min. 400 PA). My other note of caution is that this might be Escobar's peak. Punto certainly looked like "more than a utility player" at times, only 93-96 wRC+ but with excellent defense he projected as a 3-4 fWAR player in multiple seasons. Escobar has the advantage of age, but his record suggests that 102 wRC+ is more his peak than his average. A nice stabilizing fill-in at the position this year, for sure, but like Suzuki, he shouldn't preclude other options going forward. Definitely gets hurt by the Liriano trade perception, in my mind. Looked like a futility infielder eating up a 40-man roster spot at the time, but he has salvaged that trade. The Morneau trade return is now at the top of the disappointment list, although he was more expensive and it was only for one month. Otherwise, Ryan has acquitted himself quite well in his recent trades (even if his 1990s vets for prospect swaps are no longer possible).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Just looked, and it seems you're right. The peripherals still aren't there (poor rankings in FIP and xFIP), but we're still outperforming that in ERA.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure if Suzuki has solved the catcher position beyond this season (which seems to be your suggestion), but he's definitely made the position a surprising strength this year. And I can't help but think Gibson's probably just a "functional big-league starter" and only possibly more, but that's still huge to the Twins, given how few of those we've had recently! Pretty much fully agreed on your #1 and #4-10. Not sure if Escobar is a good bet to start long-term at short, but overall our future at the position looks a lot brighter now than it did a year ago. As does 2B, 3B, CF, the bench, and the rotation.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I was thinking more prospect ranking and stats, rather than pitching style (or handedness, which I noted). He's more like Gilmartin than May in that regard. Pressly's not a bad comp either -- he got hit hard as a starter in AA, fared better after a move to the pen. Good to get someone similar without the Rule 5 strings attached! The others you mention were career relievers, big K/9 but also big BB/9 too. Welker and Hoey in particular were suspiciously old, Pryor is more interesting on age and level advancement alone. Adam's profile suggests pretty stable and modest peripherals, maybe getting hit a little hard but perhaps some bad FIP luck too?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Back to the thread title, if you think of the two trades as one (Fuld + Correia for Milone + PTBNL/cash), TR still comes out ahead!
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not saying the 2013 FA SP class was any great shakes. But Ryan opted not to sign any FA SP the previous offseason too (except Marquis), despite a staff with similar question marks. He was similarly reticent about signing FA position players, outside of a couple very obvious needs (Willingham, Doumit, Carroll). He was in full, classic TR rebuild mode. And I've got news for you: a 3/24 FA contract in modern MLB is pretty much bargain bin shopping. Not that it's entirely a bad thing -- who among us doesn't like a nice bargain bin? -- and to Ryan's credit, he's gotten a couple useful guys around that price (Willingham and Hughes). His only foray out of the bargain bin was Nolasco (and even he was essentially just the most expensive innings eater on the market, in hindsight probably forced after the rotation disasters of 2012-2013). I think maybe TR realized too late that 3/24 is the new 2/10, in terms of getting Tewksbury-level quality on the FA SP market. Probably would have been better to be more aggressive in the 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 offseasons, looking for more Hughes level signings and investing innings in Kazmir upside types rather than trusting a very shaky status quo and very shaky, dirt-cheap FA patches (Marquis, KC, Pelf). Probably doesn't affect TR's 5-year plan all that much, although it could have made the last few years a little more interesting, maybe given us an extra trade chip just for the cost of cash.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Trevor May was quite a bit better -- one year removed from being a #50-#70 ranked prospect in all MLB, control issues but a K/9 that suggested potential bullpen dominance even if he didn't make it as a starter. Jason Adam feels like more of a Sean Gilmartin type -- modest peripherals, got hit hard in the minors (Gilmartin at AAA, Adam at AA). Given his right-handedness, Adam seems like an even longer shot to make it, but hopefully he can get things straightened out and take over as a depth guy in place of our AAA graduates. Fine return for an expiring contract. Will be interesting to see where we send him (AA or AAA) and in what role.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't know if it has been said explicitly here, but Jason Adam is not currently on a 40-man roster. However, as a 2010 high school pick, he will need to be added to the 40-man by November or thus be eligible for selection in the 2014 Rule 5 draft.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    All the more impressive that he did it while still on the MLB roster!
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't care either, but there is a limit to how many seasons the Twins will protect/roster a guy who isn't producing in the low minors. Basically, if he repeats his performance this season in high-A next year, I doubt they keep him on the roster that winter into 2016, although by that point we may be able to pass him through waivers anyway and keep him in the org.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks jokin. I guess, as a strict corner player, Kepler probably has perhaps one more season to get things going, sustainably, with the bat. He'll be nearly 23 at that point.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Twins have only had 1 start less than 5 IP each of the last two weeks (Darnell and May). For the season, by my count the Twins have had 22 starts of less than 5 IP in 116 games, or just under 20%. That's an average of once per turn.
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