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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    If that's how the contracts shake out, Shields looks like he could be the best value -- real ace potential at 2/3 the AAV, and maybe 60% of the total guarantee, of Scherzer or Lester. He is a few years older, which is not without risk, of course, but it could be like buying a used luxury car rather than a brand new model. (Heck, at those prices, you could get BOTH Shields and Santana for the price of Scherzer or Lester -- that would be an interesting debate!)
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    He could be worth that much more. Santana hasn't cracked 3 fWAR since 2008. Shields hasn't been BELOW 3.5 fWAR since 2010 (and before that, his rookie year of 2007). Put another way: Ervin Santana could help, but his likely upside is actually pretty comparable to likely upsides for the Twins internal prospects. For a desperate team, that can still have value (see Nolasco), but if you are going to give up a draft pick, and spend $50+ million, shouldn't you at least get some more ace upside? Otherwise, if you sign Santana, you are still very dependent on internal prospects in that regard. We've got an average-ish pitcher (Gibson), a bit above average guy (Hughes), maybe another average guy if Nolasco can turn things around. We've got a few prospects who have yet to do anything, and could well wind up average too. We don't necessarily need more average from a big FA signing.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    In most of my stats quoted above, I deliberately left out their rookie seasons. And any way you slice their recent performance, Shields trumps Santana by a considerable margin (except, apparently, current year, non-park/league-adjusted FIP). And again, their birthdays were only 12 months apart. That kind of age separation means more in the aggregate than in a specific case like this. I suppose Santana at 4 years for $X might be a better deal than Shields at 5 years at $Y, but either way, you're not signing them for what they provide in the 4th or 5th year. It's the first few years that will make or break the deal, and by the numbers, Shields has much more "ace" potential for those years (and probably less variability of performance for those years too). Both will cost the Twins a 2nd round draft pick. The Twins were only willing to offer ~3/33 for Santana last offseason under similar circumstances, when he was a year younger, so I'm not sure they'd really be interested in 4/56 a year later. I would hope Shields would warrant more interest, but I'm pretty sure they won't be in the market for any of these guys.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, signing Scherzer or Shields would take away a top pitcher from a division rival (the top two teams in the division right now, no less). (Obviously, the teams can and would try to replace them, but it might cost more or take a year-plus to do it, and the replacement could easily be of lower quality too.)
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    FIP is neither adjusted for league (Santana is obviously not facing DHs much this year) or park (one-year park factors suggest ATL is benefiting pitchers, while KC slightly benefits hitters). Also, Santana's FIP is almost at a career-best, over half a run lower than the mark he posted in the AL Central just last year -- while Shields' is merely in line with his career numbers. Which would you like to bet on going forward? Fangraphs uses FIP in their WAR calculations, and they have Shields beating Santana in WAR 7.8 to 5.6 over the past 2 seasons. Even adjusting for the difference IP (which is important by itself), Shields is 20% ahead of Santana in fWAR. If you are looking for an "ace" and you define that as a full season of roughly 120 ERA+ or better pitching, Shields has done it 5 times in 8 years, versus Santana only twice in 9 years.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Remember ERA/ERA+ is worse for starters than relievers. So Gibson's 93 ERA+ entering today was very close to average for starters (which is generally 95). He's slightly below average in IP/GS.... and he's not helping his case today, in terms of run prevention... so yeah, he's probably below average, but still fairly close.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree that aggressively pursuing a FA starter is unlikely -- but Berrios is unlikely to be sitting in AAA at the beginning of the season. I am guessing he starts back in AA for half a season, just like Liriano in 2004-2005. (Which also means, if all goes well, maybe he debuts in MLB before the season is over! But he's not likely even on the depth chart to begin the year.) Now, I don't think this is necessarily sound reasoning for sitting out the FA SP market -- Pelfrey is pretty worthless, and our best starter by far at the moment (Hughes) is only under contract for 2 more seasons. Adding another arm might make a minor crunch to begin 2015, but that could be good, as it would force us to quickly judge the more mediocre arms in the group, and we will certainly need more SP over the course of the next few seasons. And adding an arm at the top of the heap is certainly much better than piling up more around the bottom!
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Why should a qualifying offer take him off the table? The Twins top pick will be protected next year, so they would only lose a second-rounder. Might give them an advantage over other teams bidding for him, who may have to give up a first-rounder (except Detroit, who obviously wouldn't give up anything). And if you're going to fork over $100+ mil or whatever it takes, the draft pick is probably fairly meaningless (particularly a second rounder). If you have any inkling to get a top-level SP on the FA market, you pretty much have to act now, right? By next year, your 1st round pick won't be protected (hopefully!), and you will be one year closer to Sano/Buxton/Meyer paydays.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    How many good starting pitchers hit free agency younger than 30? Phil Hughes is a rarity in that regard, and he only achieved FA so young because of awful age-25 and age-27 performances (that latter of which was his contract year). By passing on free agency, you're basically putting all of our eggs in our minor league SP, only one of which looks to even be ready to debut in 2015. And getting an under-30 starter in trade is going to cost a lot of talent that the Twins likewise can't afford to give up right now (if they even have it). Free agency is just money. Might as well spend it now, when we have so few salary commitments the next few years, and spend it on a potential ace (not another Nolasco!), even if they are not perfect.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure how you arrived at those conclusions. Ervin Santana is indeed younger than Shields, but only by 1 year. He's also averaged about 30 fewer IP than Shields *per season* since their respective rookie years, at notably worse effectiveness (career 99 ERA+ vs 111). Take just their last 4 seasons and the difference is even more stark: 100 ERA+ vs 125 (with the same 30 IP per season advantage for Shields). Santana has also been much more inconsistent, with 3 of 9 seasons well below average since his rookie year, as compared to Shields who has just 1 of 8. Not to say that Ervin Santana can't be a good pick-up at less cost, but his history does not suggest he approximates Shields' production.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    This one is in heavy rotation at my house these days. Good read, although it is necessary to correct the author's use of "head coach" instead of "manager".
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    He also got a bit better results than Gardy.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd be careful dismissing these poor stretches as something "most relievers do". Obviously all players have poor stretches, but the poorer players generally have more frequent such stretches, and worse ones. It's why overall numbers have value.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Only if you assume their 2013 usage levels were somehow optimal, as compared to 2012.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    That's a ~7% increase from last year. About 4.2 IP over 162 games, or about 1 extra out recorded every 4-5 relief appearances. Additionally, Perkins threw 70.1 IP in 2012. Fien threw 81 combined innings in 2012 too. This is a HUGE stretch of the term "overuse".
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Twins need a 12-7 finish now for Gardy to avoid that ignominious distinction.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Can't they be both?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    It wasn't quite a one-year deal. Morris had two player options too, so it was risky for the team -- they would have been on the hook for all 3 years if Morris had not performed well in that first one. (Dude was coming off 3 seasons of 89 ERA+ pitching too.) On the other hand, contracts and salaries were escalating pretty quickly too, so it ultimately wasn't that rich of a deal (hence why he opted out after 1 year). And thank goodness he opted out, the next two years he posted a combined 86 ERA+! EDIT: But I agree with your larger point. It was a small potatoes commitment compared to current frontline FA prices. Moreover, it was a prelude to the "hometown" FA deals we signed later in the 1990's, and it was for an innings eater to boot.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Obviously I am not suggesting investing internationally or on domestic FAs at the expense of the draft. But from day 1, TR could have signed anybody he wanted and still got Buxton, for example. And our future draft positions would have been significantly worse only if we had significantly more success at the MLB level, which would have been a good problem to have, in my opinion. Fortunately, the new draft and non-Cuban/Asian international slotting and spending caps, in place since June-July 2012, have limited this weakness of TR. (Although by the same token, it also limits our ability to quickly improve by these methods, for a GM who is willing to take advantage.) May have been the only reason we landed Buxton. Still would like to see him spend more/smarter where he can, though. No reason the 2015 Twins have to operate or rebuild exactly like the 2005 or 1995 Twins.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Not only could it be an exception, it was a fairly minor one. Hughes was the only high upside guy they got, and his contract made him a pretty low risk. Nolasco was a traditional low upside Twins acquisition... just for more money (or risk). (Pelf was a classic Twins FA, both low risk and low upside.) Neither move suggests the Twins will even remotely be in on top-shelf FA SP this offseason, that's for sure.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    There are a few Cuban players who could have had an impact already. A few international guys signed before the new spending caps went into effect July 2012 too. All indications suggest the Twins didn't make any efforts in these areas. Not to mention MLB FAs, where the Twins efforts were half-hearted until this past offseason (and I'd argue they were still fairly half-hearted, given Nolasco's history and season). I get that rebuilding takes time, but with TR's demonstrated baseball acumen and Target Field's resources, there is no reason it automatically has to be a 5+ year process, done almost entirely through the amateur draft.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I am pretty ambivalent about changing managers or GMs (or even coaches). I wouldn't mind keeping the current group, if they showed some evidence that they aren't as insulated / "country club" as they've been in the past. (Or continued showing such evidence, if you believe last winter's FA signings were a step in the right direction -- despite his contract, Nolasco is looking more and more like a traditional conservative TR move -- innings eater, low upside, friendly agent, etc.). Changing coaches/manager/GM is one obvious way for the owners to demonstrate this, but I'd rather just see the incumbent group expand their horizons a bit. TR and his scouts obviously have plenty of baseball smarts: let's see them applied more (and more aggressively) to Cuba, Asia, domestic free agency, etc., and at least try to rebuild in less than 5 years. And Gardy and Anderson can obviously helm a solid team/staff too (although the playoff record gives me pause) -- no immediate need to replace them either, in my opinion.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    In regards to the Vikings and Wolves: both teams had an extended streak of early/disappointing playoff exits, then quickly got rid of their head coaches once their regular-season success dried up (Denny Green in 2001, Flip Saunders in ~2004). That would suggest Gardy should already be gone; on the other hand, neither of those coaching changes helped those franchises...
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Be very careful with this kind of analysis -- while I get that FIP/xFIP can be more predictive that ERA, xFIP also basically limits how bad a team/pitcher can look (i.e., the worst teams/pitchers always have much worse ERAs than xFIPs). Also, teams and players are also clustered a lot closer by xFIP than they ever are by ERA. So far in 2014, MLB team starter ERAs range from 3.11 to 5.09, while xFIPs range from 3.17 to 4.36. The Twins SP have notably underperformed their xFIPs by a wide margin for 3-4 years running now, so it's not a good idea to bank on xFIP as a means of improvement.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I know Perkins lost a tie game in the 9th on Thursday night, but... he's got to be a better option than Burton, right? It seems like, in some respects, we are playing the Angels hard despite the losses... but it would still be cool to see our manager treat one of these things like our own little playoff game. Particularly after some tough losses.
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