Otto von Ballpark

Hey, there is a minor league forum for Rochester Red Wings specific discussion.

Of course, Plouffe accumulated that WAR in 2014 at seven times his career rate entering the season. And he's a season and a half from being "on the wrong side of 30". I agree that "not a starter on a good team" is a fairly poor rationale. He could have been that in 2014. Is he likely to repeat that? At his age, projected to make ~$18 million in arb over the next 3 years before free agency, is he a building block for this team going forward? If anything, fans seem to be overrating how much he could bring back in trade, which suggests that they might be OVER-rating him right now.

A wash? What does that even mean? Because we signed Sano, we didn't have to bother pursuing Soler? Besides the signings themselves happening 3 years apart, Sano was an amateur shortstop who just turned 16. Soler was a 20 year old professional outfielder. I'm not seeing how one precludes the other at all. No doubt there is risk in any signing, but Cuban players have been pretty incredible (and remarkably reliable) investments. I don't there's been a recent bust of more than $10-14 million total guarantee (pending results of the most recent signs, of course). That's Pelfrey money. The recent big ticket guys have more or less become superstars, with Cespedes' 3.5 WAR per 150 games bringing up the tail end, all signing for roughly Nolasco money (or less, by AAV).

Quibble with the dollars all you want, but those are the kind of guys we should have been targeting as far back as 2011 if not earlier. They had the potential to be complete duds, but they also had the potential to be top prospects and superstars. We have not added anyone with that kind of potential recently outside the draft and the spending-capped international guys. And they weren't hiding playing stickball in some remote island alleyway. These guys were well known when it came time for MLB to bid on them, pretty much just requiring cash -- far less than domestic FAs but with a pretty darn good track record.

I don't care about flawlessness. Losing Willingham would actually hurt the Twins on the field somewhat (well, maybe not ON the field... at the plate, anyway ). Sign Pelfrey too, I don't care. Just give me SOME activity on the international market, with an eye toward long-term high-end talent acquisition. Here's another way to look at it, which might better satisfy the shifting goalposts of your original challenge: in 2011, let TR take over but forbid any new domestic spending (greater than $1-2 mil or whatever) on players 30 and over. Mandate him to spend the same amount (~$130 mil over 3 years) instead on the international market. The Twins would undoubtedly be better off for it today, even if they overbid for a guy or two from that group, and in addition got one of the duds (although there haven't been many expensive ones). I don't know if it's a fireable offense quite yet, but if I was ownership, I certainly would be questioning TR's strategy of recent years. EDIT TO ADD: Of course, as owner, I would have also started out the rebuild with the directive "what can we do better than our rebuild in the 1990s, other than draft better?"

YOU are the one who picked Abreu, Soler, Kazmir, and Chen. My post listed ALL of the big international signings of the "new TR" era and simply said the Twins would be in much better shape if they had taken some part in that market. And YOU are the one who started talking specific salaries and payroll. Add $20 million to the contracts of those players, and throw in a dud like Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez. I don't care. That's still a better Twins team today, going into 2015, and hardly one that would be facing any crippling payroll issues on the horizon.

I was responding to a poster asking for specifics. Otherwise, I try to not to invoke specific players for fear of these kind of responses. That said, there is zero evidence that TR pursued any of these options on the international market, and these guys weren't hiding under a rock. And I actually like TR and would hate to fire him (although his own words about Gardenhire last year and this year suggest that fate should be considered). Personally, I'd just like to "mandate" him to be more aggressive in pursuit of high-end talent, and if he's not up to it, get a front office partner/replacement who is.

Abreu only made $7 mil in 2014, although yes it is $11 mil AAV. I think if we signed Abreu, we wouldn't have bothered with the Kendrys Morales experience, so that's another $7 mil subtracted. That would take your payroll down to $90 mil or so, at least. Kazmir the reclamation project was before 2013, not so much last winter (although I would not have minded him last winter). Lose him for 2014 and you're down to $79 mil, if you really care about it. But looking at potential 2014 wins is vastly under-rating how much better shape this team would be in. In addition to Chen and possibly Kazmir (above-average LH SP on real-life playoff teams) still under contract for 2015, we'd have a superstar at 1B/DH for 5 more years and a MLB-ready, consensus top 25 OF prospect in Soler. THAT'S a team I don't mind waiting for prospect reinforcements a little further down the line! You could add a couple duds to that mix (Nolasco, Pelfrey, and/or Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez) and still be better off than where the Twins sit today, so your "flawless" qualifier doesn't really hold either.

That 2013-2014 offseason number isn't bad, but it includes the re-sign of Pelfrey. And as I've mentioned, a likely overpay/desperation sign in Nolasco. By my count, we guaranteed $33.75 mil to new FA in 2011-2012, although covering 6 season at an average age of 34.7. And 2012-2013, we only guaranteed $14 mil for 3 total seasons of Correia and Pelfrey. But if the domestic FA market hasn't been strong -- why hasn't TR invested internationally when he could? That's even more damning for a rebuilding team on a modest budget. See my post above for specifics.

If TR took the job in 2011 knowing it was a rebuild with modest payroll restraints, he still easily could have signed Jorge Soler or other international prospects before July 2012. He could have pursued Cespedes or Puig for comparable AAV that he gave to Willingham. Wei-Yin Chen would have been a much better gamble for our 2012 rotation, given its question marks beyond that season, than Jason Marquis for similar AAV. Jose Abreu made less money for all of 2014 than Kendrys Morales did for 3 months, and is obviously a way better asset now. None of those moves alone makes the Twins contenders right now, or guarantee contention at any point, but any of them certainly would give us more assets now and put us in a better position going forward. Heck, he could made any two of the above moves, and added two more stinkers along similar lines (i.e. Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez), and we'd still be better off. On the domestic front, you're right that it's been mostly slim pickings among notable free agents. If you're not going to contend, you might as well gamble on upside (Garza, Feldman) than consistent mediocrity (Nolasco, Correia). A simple "don't sign Nolasco" would also improve TR's record. Not doubling down on Pelfrey. Also, targeting a more realistic reclamation than (or in addition to) Rich Harden wouldn't have been that hard (Scott Kazmir was actually pitching at the time we hoped that Harden would eventually pitch again). I liked the deal for Worley, but trying some different coaches with him before giving him away after a year would have been advisable (particularly when we fired our coaches within 6 months anyway). Even if you grant that he's working under payroll/rebuild limitations, it's pretty hard not to see that TR has not performed well recently outside of the draft (the fruits of which have yet to reach the majors, or mostly even the upper minors).

My 5 years comment was assuming that 2015 and 2016 are expected to be part of the rebuild, which certainly seems to be the case given where our prospects are and our reliance on those prospects.

My calculations show almost $131 million exactly guaranteed to outside free agents (not counting minor league deals) since TR took over in 2011, covering 19 player seasons. And I only get to that figure by including Morales and his 3-month contract. That's an average season salary of $6.9 mil and age of 32.4. (And of course we dumped about ~$8 mil of those salary guarantees through various trades too.) And when the average MLB player salary is ~$3.5 mil, most of our signings don't register as anything, really. You can dish out ~$4 mil to a Marquis or Pelfrey every year for five years, but that's not a cumulative $20 mil investment in FA in any real sense of "playing the market." Only 3 outside FA contracts have really met that standard: Willingham in 2012, and Nolasco/Hughes in 2014. (I hesitate to include Morales' 3-month contract here -- however bold it was in cash, it was ultra-conservative in term.) Not only is that a very conservative record, you can also make the case that it's not very good -- and in fact, most of the activity this past winter could just as easily be attributed to desperation after the previous two poor offseasons, rather than "being ready to make a little jump." Perhaps a team with a more realistic/aggressive approach in FA for 2011-2013 doesn't need to overpay Nolasco early last winter. (EDIT TO ADD: actually I hope that was the reason for the Nolasco signing, rather than poor talent identification...)

This is what it comes down to, for me. TR is conservative by nature, and while I don't want my GM forcing big free agent signs or recklessly dealing top prospects -- I also don't want them to so passively accept a 5+ year, 90+ loss rebuilding plan. Why not bid aggressively on a Cuban you like, to try jump-starting this thing a bit? Or a Dominican pre-July 1, 2012? Thank goodness for the slots and spending caps that took effect in 2012 or I shudder to think where TR would have this organization -- may not have Buxton or Stewart. (Although Gordon feels like a TR throwback conservative pick again...) Now, that alone isn't going to make us equal to the Cardinals, but it helps. Less tolerance for mediocre coaches would help too (and hopefully TR is finally getting wise to this now, although it feels like more of a desperation move than a targeted smart one, just like the Nolasco signing last winter).

You are correct on his birthplace, but I understand that Martinez does speak Spanish fluently (and has served as an unofficial translator at times).

I distinctly recall TR giving a quick response to a question about hiring a Hispanic replacement for Gardy, including a generic invocation of the word "diversity". Just struck me as odd, like he and the Twins were perhaps a little tone deaf on this issue (wouldn't be the first time). Obviously their manager interviewees so far haven't reflected any desire to fill that position with a Hispanic, although as you state it was probably more likely to come through a coaching hire anyway. EDIT: I should add that I thought the press conference question wasn't phrased well either -- it didn't "state the obvious" in regards to Latin coaches being best for Latin players, so it left open the general "affirmative action" interpretation that TR may have took, given his response. Of course, I don't claim to have watched the press conference all that carefully, so I may be very wrong, but this is the one specific that struck me at the time.

I noted at the Gardy press conference that TR answered this question by mentioning "diversity", as if he thought it was an "affirmative action" type suggestion rather than a way to better develop Latin American players. So I might ask him first if he sees a need for a Hispanic coach or manager, and why.

Garza, Slowey, and Perkins were the graduates from the 2007 list. Which certainly isn't bad, especially when you throw in the sleeper that was Span. It's not TR's fault that Smith traded the best prospect he was handed for pennies on the dollar. That said, even though the cupboard wasn't bare, I might quibble with "well-stocked". The Twins had some pretty horrid position player drafts for a few years there, and they hadn't added much on the international side either. Smith compounded the issue with some bad drafts of his own, but the position player cupboard was pretty bare.

That was probably the key for Pittsburgh -- I think they liked Volquez, and Cole has underperformed his peripherals overall.

Not sure where you are getting "4 guys in BA top 100". BA's list for 2008 only includes 3 Twins, the top two of whom were acquired in the Santana trade (Guerra at #35 and Gomez at #52), plus Blackburn at #56 oddly. That was Blackburn's only top 100 ranking in 6 years in the minors too.

Thanks Andrew. I've been saying something like this across various threads this week, and it's nice to hear it articulated so well by a more prominent TD voice. Gardy may have been posting ~66 win seasons recently, but there's really no question he's been given ~66 win talent the last few years too (TR admitted as much after 2013). TR is going to have to be accountable for that sooner or later, and I'm still not entirely sure why Gardy was accountable first, rather than both together.

Another "from afar" strike against Molitor: a guy strongly considered for the Twins manager job in 2001 doesn't strike me as someone who would be an innovator, barring other evidence of that trait (and Molitor doesn't have a whole lot). I don't know anything much about Mientkiewicz as manager, but Molitor seems like a "safe" choice more than anything else. And if I wanted a safe choice, I probably would have just stuck with Gardy for another year, maybe with a different pitching coach. Really hope they take serious looks outside the org here.

I agree, I would have saved Cole. But it seems like teams like to do anything they can to avoid elimination games (particularly when they would be scheduled to face a guy like Bumgarner in said game).

I don't think they are lying and deceiving, but I think they have a well-established conservative (some would say "cheap") approach to budgeting. Some thought that was just the Metrodome, and that was certainly a factor, but I think the root cause goes deeper than stadiums. But everyone knows this conservative approach to budgeting doesn't necessarily play well with the public, especially when you are in a new taxpayer funded stadium, so they say some weird things at times to try glossing over that fact, emphasizing other aspects of their approach, and de-emphasizing their MLB payroll and FA pursuits.

I'd take it one step further -- I'd like them to be willing to go 10% above (or risk going 10% above in the future) if they identify the "right guy" available in FA (or even trade), even if it's not the "final piece" or the rest of the team may not be good yet. Otherwise, you can pretty much argue against FA spending anytime (either we're not good/close yet, or if we are, we have to worry about paying Buxton/Sano/etc.). And that's not a mandate to spend that money now or any particular time -- it's just giving TR's apparent baseball acumen another avenue to potentially add top-level talent to our favorite ballclub.

Yeah, that's why I don't want it to be an ex-Twin. And this is why the manager hire is so important -- probably shouldn't default to ex-Twins there either.