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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Seth, this is all kinds of incorrect. Nathan was only the 4th reliever used by the Twins that night. In addition to Crain, J.C. Romero was also available among traditional relievers (indeed, Romero was called upon once Nathan tied the game and loaded the bases with only one out). Lohse and Mulholland were also on the roster if we were worried about the game continuing beyond the 12th inning (it would have been Lohse's "throw day" even if they wanted him to start Game 4 of that series). Furthermore, Crain was quite effective that season, and was only used to face 2 batters, both during the Game 3 blowout loss, and none during the two games we lost in extra innings with Nathan on fumes and mop-up man Lohse. I am sure the team was glad we were "fair" to him, though! (An aside, do you think starting rookie Jason Kubel -- who's MLB career was even shorter than Crain's at that point -- at DH was fair? How about letting him bat against Mariano Rivera in a key spot with Ford on the bench?)
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree the press conference was impressive, given the unfortunate circumstances -- but isn't the very act of firing the manager now, a year removed from giving him a contract extension, after our biggest win increase since 2010 and our biggest pythag improvement since 2001 despite largely the same roster and payroll -- isn't that somewhat of an act of deflecting responsibility and accountability?
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Heck, in terms of tangible improvement, B-Ref shows us with a 102 OPS+ or better for our all 9 of our listed position player starters for 2014. Only two at that level for 2013, 6 in 2012, 2 in 2011... actually, I don't know if we've ever had such an achievement. 7 of 9 in 2002 was the previous best in the Gardy era. It's far from a finished product (and admittedly the above criteria includes the now-departed Willingham), but it suggests a team on the improving track. Add an actual plus MLB pitcher to complement Hughes and get some more interesting bullpen arms for 2015 and I don't mind this team at all.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed, which is why I am a little disappointed in TR for doing it. I guess some accountability is better than none, even if it eludes our GM for life.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Brock's link says "The study compares all 30 big-league teams on what they charge for four mid-range tickets, two small beers, four small soft drinks, four regular hot dogs, parking for one car, two programs and two baseball caps." I doubt that the team sells 2 caps for every four tickets sold. Particularly not marginal ticket increases. So this would not be a good number to use when estimating added revenue.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Fair point. But my point was that Nolasco and Hughes were about the only big offseason additions to the 2014 team, as compared to the 2013 team. And the team did improve by 4 real wins and 12 pythag wins. Nobody really predicted anything different for this club. Either TR had some unrealistic expectations for the 2014 squad, or he wasn't being terribly honest about his assessment of Gardy and his own performance after 2013. (Actually, that latter explanation seems fairly likely to me right now -- I think the org approached 2014 as another tough year in the rebuild, and figured they'd leave Gardy at the helm to collect his 1000th win, but would can him barring any surprises. Thus, the Nolasco/Hughes contracts were perhaps less about significantly improving and more trying to stabilize a desperate starting staff.)
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    But where's the accountability of the GM, who the owner said can have the job for life? Does TR have to self-impose this accountability? Does TR think that Gardy had an appreciably worse year than he himself had?
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    But TR assembled that team. And how many of these guys should we have expected to be better in 2014? Hicks, I guess, although he had a pretty spotty history even as a prospect. Nolasco, maybe, but Gardy/Andy barely touched him. Mauer thrived under Gardy for many years prior to 2014. Florimon, Deduno, Parmelee, and Colabello were probably lucky to be MLB in 2014. Worley actually stands out to me on this list -- I know we got him relatively cheaply, so it wasn't instantly damning to Gardy/Andy when he struggled mightily in 2013, but I wonder if the staff rendered a final judgement on him in March 2014 that turned out to be pretty darn wrong. Still, selling him for nothing when they had a "free" season to work with him in the minors was ultimately TR's call. Same for "Kubartlett" -- that can't be all on Gardy. I probably agree that it was time for a change from Gardy/Andy, but I guess I am not seeing why at the same time, TR has a contract for life. Has anybody been able to get any kind of specifics out of TR here? Why did he take the hit for 2013, but not 2014 with largely the same cast of players at Gardy's disposal? Did TR expect Nolasco to be a difference-maker, or what?
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    The other thing to remember is that the Dodgers gave up virtually nothing (3 players who were DFA'd within the year) for Nolasco last summer, and I don't think they even made an offer for him when he became a FA. I think Nolasco likes the Dodgers more than the Dodgers particularly like Nolasco. Also, we're over 2 years past the big Boston-LA trade, and the Dodgers have yet to dump any salary. I'm not sure it's at all clear that they need to, certainly not to the point where they have to take contracts like Nolasco's in return.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    If TR is finally willing/able to part with more cash, I'm not sure trading talent for bad contracts is the best way to do it. Why not just put it towards a FA?
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Minor nitpick, but Jake Mauer only played on one DIII title-winning St Thomas team (2001). They lost in the title game in both 1999 and 2000. The school's second DIII title came long after Jake had left, in 2009. Actually, maybe less playoff success would make him a better candidate to replace Gardy.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    They also would have saved at least $30 mil, which could have been put towards a FA then or now. That said, the trade has become more interesting as Myers has scuffled this year. While he was a very good young prospect, his record did not scream "can't miss" to me. If the Royals had similar misgivings about his potential, their experiences with Moustakas and Hosmer may have inspired them to cash in on Myers. (Although Gordon has worked out well as a late bloomer, maybe they didn't want to wait that long with Myers.)
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know how typical it was -- the Twins only blew one playoff game lead in 10 games in 2002, and none in their 4 games in 2003. Even in 2004, only Game 4 really felt like a blown lead. In Game 2, we only briefly held leads in innings 2-3 and then again in the top of the 12th. It really was a comeback game for the Twins, on the road no less, not that there wasn't an unhealthy dose of mismanagement involved. And I don't know how far your era extends, but in the 2006 playoffs, the Twins never held a lead which to squander. (2009 and 2010 actually fit your remark best -- the Twins led, albeit mostly early/briefly, in 5 of the 6 games, with 2009 Game 2's blown save and 2010 Game 1's 6th inning being the biggest/worst.) These are minor nitpicks, though. I certainly share your feelings about that 2004 Game 2. What's weird is while that game featured several memorable poor decisions by Gardenhire, it really was the 2006 playoffs that seems to best capture the Twins playoff ineptitude under Gardy: no obvious mistakes or blown games, just thorough (if sometimes fairly close) losses.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I wonder what would have been acceptable performance for TR/ownership not to fire Gardy? Nolasco not imploding probably gets them up to 72-73 wins, but other than that, I'm not seeing a lot else that Gardy could have done differently. (The front office's pursuit of Garza/Santana suggests they weren't real confident in the SP even before Nolasco's implosion anyway.) The Gardy/Andy "bullpen magic" seemed to dry up a bit this season, which as mentioned may have cost them a few more pythag wins, but it's not like they got handed a very good group this year -- a lot of mediocre holdovers rather than any new blood. Now, if Gardy/Andy were the ones telling the front office, "we like these guys" -- that's certainly a strike against them. Otherwise, it looks like they were set up to fail. The plan appears to have been: let him finally get that 1000th win and the humidor, but barring something surprising, move on after 2014.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Not to get too far off-topic, but this is a fairly gross mischaracterization. Nathan's game 2 performances in 2004 and 2009 were the only two playoff leads he ever blew. And the first of those, in 2004, he only blew it AFTER he had already thrown 2.1 shutout innings in extras. (And that's on Gardy -- when your closer is at 42 pitches, having just walked the #9 hitter on four straight balls, with the top of the order due up to face him a second time -- it's time to make a move. Add in another 4 pitch walk to the leadoff hitter and it was gross negligence to leave him in to face A-Rod again.) Nathan did allow inherited insurance runs to score in 2006 and 2009, but by those points, those series were more or less lost already. He has certainly struggled this year, but he is fairly far down the list for reasons the Twins lost so many playoff games/series.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. Sounds like this is entirely about Dick Martin for Will Carroll. Numerous mentions of those two around the web: http://aarongleeman.com/2004/02/10/4782/ Carroll also "began awarding the Dick Martin Award to the best MLB medical staff of the season, 'named after the long-time Twins trainer that helped set the standards that today’s athletic trainers and doctors aspire to.'": http://blogs.thescore.com/mlb/2011/04/30/simile-saturday-minnesota-twins-edition/
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    FYI: Fox Sports North has the news conference right now.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Not to resurrect an old thread, but I just saw this nugget in today's Gardy article: That makes at least two connections between Pelf and Gardy (not to mention both had fathers in the air force, although Pelfrey was separated from his father at a young age).
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    What about TR's comments (last winter?) how the team's failures were on him? This seems like quite a reversal from that. Maybe in 2014 he felt it was more on the coaches, but I'm not seeing how TR did appreciably better overall in 2014 either. I guess this move, assuming it comes with TR's blessing, is a sign that TR is willing to act differently than he has in the past, which is a good thing but needs a lot more to really turn things around (particularly on the player acquisition and talent identification fronts). Is the clock on TR now? How much time does he have left to turn the ship around?
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I have to admit, I am very surprised. Probably more surprised than I should be, given the Twins recent records. I guess I should have seen it coming, though -- the contract extension is usually the kiss of death for Minnesota coaches. Best to Gardy and the staff.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    On your latter point, we probably agree, so we're just splitting hairs. Losing to better teams or not, that playoff record had become beyond embarrassing. I started to dread going to the playoffs, and I think I will feel the same if the Twins ever get back there with Gardy at the helm, even if the cast of players is completely different (although that would be an excellent problem to have as early as 2015 ).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    FIP can be useful, but it also effectively limits how bad a team/pitcher can be. Invariably, there are pitchers with ERAs in the 5's but FIP always registers in the 4's for them. Similar for the worst team ERAs in the league. I know that FIP is supposed to remove some of the defense/luck inherent in ERA, but when you are one of the worst pitchers on perhaps the worst staff in the league... it's probably removing too much defense/luck.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Why does he have to be an ace? What's wrong with very good MLB starter? Also, I think he's had borderline ace moments in his solid career. Garza was 17th in AL ERA+ in 2008, and 12th in NL ERA+ in 2011. Plus some top 15-20 IP totals too.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Still no excuse to get swept at home by Oakland (still the only playoff series Oakland has won since 1994 realignment -- and the Twins only series win was in 2002 against Oakland, so in my mind, they cancel each other out. At least the A's have made virtually all of their division series competitive.) You can go year by year and game by game and make excuses, but the Twins playoff record under TR/Gardenhire is a pretty inexcusable overall.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    That's still pretty atrocious. He was posting similar lines in his earlier stints, and people would say "I am fine with that OBP" but he's got to offer more AVG or SLG for that OBP to be sustainable, I think.
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