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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    That's pretty good. I would even leave out the "I don't believe free agency will bring us to a playoff team" part -- nobody reasonable is arguing that, they just want the team to get BETTER, and free agency can certainly help in that regard (especially when the front office does their job of identifying and acquiring good free agents -- good meaning quality or upside/value). While no particular moves are mandated at any time, reasonably available MLB payroll and free agents should always be considered to help solve the puzzle, just as much as high draft picks and amateur bonus slots.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, the 2104 Twins payroll will be lower due to deflation as a result of World War III.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Hasn't the postseason been thought to be a bit of a crapshoot for awhile now? Maybe Strib commenters don't realize that (or Strib columnists ), but I think reasoned observers of the game know it. The issue is usually ability to get to the postseason. In 2014, 17 teams finished within 10 games of a wild card (shown on the B-Ref home page). 13 of them were in the top 17 payrolls; of the 4 high payroll teams that didn't make it in 2014, 2 of them made the playoffs in 2013, and the other two made the playoffs 3 straight times before 2013 and 5 straight times before 2012, respectively. Only four 2014 playoff teams came from the bottom 13 payrolls (and only 2 in the bottom 9, where the Twins resided). But the other thing is, the #17 payroll was right around $100 mil. MLB imposes no artificial tax or penalty on payrolls that size or even up to a whopping $189 million. And judging by history and available numbers, every MLB franchise could support a $100 million payroll if it wanted. So much of the remaining payroll disparity is largely self-imposed. So a low payroll is a symptom of the problem, rather than the cause.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    The lesson I take from this postseason: I am seeing a few disappointing teams occasionally hang close in a game, but ultimately look pretty listless and get blown out of the series. It's not fun. And that's what we saw from the Twins for SIX consecutive postseason series, spanning 8 years. Ugh.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Might be close on payroll now (they are pretty much solidly in the bottom third of MLB teams in payroll at the moment, so they definitely have company). But approach? Up until Sano, the Twins had probably the worst/cheapest international operation in MLB. And until last offseason, I believe they ranked #28 in MLB for biggest outside FA contract ever. And I'd guess they ranked near the bottom for draft bonuses (adjusted for slot) pre-2012 too. And they have essentially the same GM/FO/ownership group that oversaw all of that. So until they consistently show otherwise, I think they are definitely still among the most risk-averse/frugal/conservative teams in MLB. Fortunately the new amateur caps/slots have mitigated some of this, but evidence of the approach/philosophy still remains.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, ~$40 mil as of opening day 2014. However, there is virtually no difference between 28th and 24th ($8 mil), or even 28th and 18th, for that matter ($15 mil, or just over Kendrys Morales' full season salary in 2014). The Twins are basically in the same lump of teams as they were pre-Target Field and post-contraction/Don Beaver. An aside: if autocorrect changes my "Morales" to "Molasses", that's still correct on some level, right?
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty sure most professional baseball players are working hard to get better. But they can't all get better. At this point, I am more likely to ask, are we judging Pinto's current performance levels fairly?
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Twins seemed to keep up with baseball inflation just fine from 2000-2005 in the Dome, before Target Field was even approved.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    First of all, if by "high priced stage" you are talking elite $100+ mil free agents, that's a universe of maybe 1-3 free agents per offseason. Very few teams could sign them by definition, just based on the extremely limited quantities. I think here we are more discussing the entire universe of free agent talent, including the more middle tier Nolasco level and perhaps even the lower tier Hughes/Willingham level. Plenty of teams are active in those markets all over the success cycle. Secondly, wouldn't the better free agents by definition often come from the better teams? The simple likelihood of them re-signing with their old teams might make them more likely to end up in the better destinations. Thirdly, a full half of MLB teams this past season finished above .500, and a few more finished within 10 games of a wild card spot. Most teams in most years qualify for having a sufficient base to augment by adding a free agent. Finally, the biggest FA of last offseason (Robinson Cano) signed with a team that had just avoided a 5th consecutive last place season only because the Astros switched leagues. Exception that proves the rule? What about the team that finished last in the Twins own division signing a top international talent? Heck, I believe even the moribund Astros were rumored finalists for both Abreu and Tanaka. Going back a couple years, off the top of my head, Oakland was coming off its worst season in its worst stretch of the Beane era when they signed Cespedes.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Our regular lineups in April and May featured Florimon, Colabello, Kubel, and even some Parmelee, not to mention the destined-for-demotion Hicks. June and July lineups featured Willingham and Morales playing out the finals months of their Twins tenures, and August and September had future Twins cornerstone Jordan Schafer plus the re-appearance of Parmelee and Hicks. And on the pitching side, Correia was taking regular rotation turns the whole season into August, not to mention "DFA" Deduno and "Outright" Pino, and "Pitching Through Pain" Pelfrey and Nolasco. If the above players would have blocked Santana, Gibson, Vargas, etc., that's a whole 'nother problem on top of our general inability to identify and acquire FA talent. (Wait -- you believe Deduno, Colabello, and Parmelee getting significant playing time in 2014 was a good thing? Never mind then, I don't think we will see eye to eye on this one.)
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Mostly from me. Just because TR doesn't participate in it does not mean the international free agent market does not exist. And there's no reason it has to be limited to last offseason -- a majority of MLB teams have signed at least one international free agent since TR took over in 2011. A rebuilding team looking to build future assets while trimming payroll would have been a natural fit for that market.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    30+ year old domestic free agents in particular. Yet TR has sunk over $100 million on them over the past 3 offseasons, and just ~$28 mil into under-30 domestic FA, and zero spent on international free agents (outside the slot and cap system).
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Reasonable based on, they've spent this (or more) before, and it's the median MLB payroll. "Mandated", as you use it, seems to say "you have $X to spend right now, so spend it." That's not quite what folks are suggesting here, I don't think. I read it as more like, "we have had $X to spend for Y years, and will for the next Z years -- why is the front office suggesting payroll is any kind of limiting factor?" I understand your overall point -- that 2010-2012 payrolls might represent the high side rather than the expected norm, and I am fairly OK with that. But even when they have spent, this front office has done a pretty poor job of it. Even if payroll isn't really a limiting factor, it looks like this front office may still have the same MLB talent identification/acquisition problems that caused the 2011-2012 disasters, and dooms us to 5 year rebuild cycles if we have a few poor draft cycles.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think anybody is suggesting this, at all. Just that payroll should not be a limiting factor for improving this team. The amounts discussed in these threads are just examples of what the Twins should reasonably have to work with, NOT mandated spending.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Mostly right, although Pinto tore up rookie leagues at age 19-20, very much like Eddie Rosario did but without the draft pedigree. I know that's when he entered my prospect radar, and given the dearth of hitting talent at the catcher position, Pinto was pretty likely to reach MLB after that point, barring injury. And of course, since repeating high-A at age 23, Pinto has been pretty darn steady the last 3 seasons at every level. Here are his Fangraphs wRC+ values from each of his stops since the start of 2012 (MLB in bold): 136, 153, 152, 124, 168, 131, 101
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    We play our home games outdoors now, so maybe just "Sol Patrol"
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Didn't both of these teams just dump their GMs? I guess the lesson learned is, if you are going to lose, do it on a budget to keep ownership happy.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, is Pino still hurt?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I get that there appears to be a progression here -- but not sure if the Twins deserve any credit for the Pino part of it. Pino has been freely available for the last 3-4 offseasons -- if he was an upgrade over some of our MLB starters in 2012-2013, why wait? Is there some rule that you have to try the lousier pitchers first? Also, we added Pino the 40-man the same year we removed Hendriks, who filled a very similar role (outstanding AAA starter, MLB fill-in) in his new organization, just 5 years younger. That doesn't seem like much progress to me. (And we also gave away Worley this same year, who actually became a significant 2014 MLB contributor in his new org.) EDIT: Another way to put it, when you assemble as bad a MLB starting staff as the Twins did in 2012-2013, you can do just about anything and will likely see "progress". Actually, it seems that describes the 2014 Twins starting staff fairly well...
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Finally, given the previous dismissive comments about the "stats guy" and the on-field MLB results the past few years, it is very hard to view this research team policy of complete non-disclosure as more of a cover for a project that is some combination of incomplete and ineffective. I should know, because I employ such a strategy all the time. Basically everything else about the Twins lately has been deflecting from incomplete and ineffective work, so I am not sure why we would expect any different from its research team (even the Gardy "reassignment" has felt, to me, like mostly a deflection so far).
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Didn't the Twins scouting director basically admit, within the last year or two, that they were just starting to closely examine the health situation of pitchers they were drafting? (I mean, beyond the obvious "is he currently hurt" or "did he just have surgery" -- trying to gauge if/when a guy might need surgery.)
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, I don't think one has to disclose any valuable details/models to offer a little glimpse to fans. Demonstrate the database/interface you've worked on... let the players and coaches talk in general terms about how it has helped them. Something like a puff piece with a little teeth, really. Heck, even just the manager/GM saying, "we're going to look at this stuff because we need all the help we can get" would put the Twins in a positive light, stat-wise (and be a refreshing bit of honesty and self-realization).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I shouldn't quibble, but both have gone further in the ALCS -- Cleveland to the full 7 games, and KC is guaranteed 6 games this year. The Twins won 1 game before rolling over for 4 straight losses. If you view Oakland as a cursed modern franchise (as I do), it puts the 2002 Twins run in an even worse light. (My theory is that the Twins ALDS win in 2002 and Oakland's in 2006 essentially cancel each other out. Oakland is more "cursed" than disappointment, though, due to the sheer number of very close 5 game ALDS losses.) Cleveland and Detroit have also both beat the Yankees in the playoffs, and Chicago beat a team that beat the Yankees in the playoffs that same year.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    This disappointed me a bit. I get that TR keeps things close to the vest and he respects Gardenhire, but can he seriously not share any one specific area where Gardy could improve? Sabermetrics should be the easy one, and he actually called it a Gardy strength instead? This is the kind of thing that makes me believe Gardy was just a fall guy for the entire organization's failings. And the guys in the front office still can't/won't admit to those failings or learn from them. And if you're going to dismiss Gardy for nebulous reasons about "taking it to the next level" -- why not dismiss him after one of his many playoff failures? Those were team that needed to take it to the next level, in my opinion. The current team just needs to find a level. (Fun fact: In Gardy's tenure as manager, we've now seen every other AL Central team make a deep postseason run, including KC...)
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not one to pick on Mauer, but it's been really cool to see catchers like Perez and Molina getting riled up this postseason, barking at their teammates, and leading frequent (perhaps too-frequent ) conferences on the mound.
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