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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Travel and the salaries of other personnel probably don't amount to anything close to "a large chunk of the other 50%". How much do you think they make? Players might make 50%, but they make a TON. Also, "thousands"? I doubt the Twins personnel rolls are quite THAT numerous. There are 372 names on the "Front Office" page at the Twins site, and it seems to be a fairly exhaustive list -- a number of them even appear to be part-time employees, so I would guess anyone not on that list is either part-time/seasonal and/or minimum wage. Only a very small handful on that list would be traveling with the team. I think they outsource concessions and probably some other things. Maybe if you count every part-time employee (grounds crew, custodians, etc.), you might get close to a thousand, but by that point you're basically adding exclusively seasonal minimum wage employees, which have about as much effect as minor league player salaries (which I notice you left off your list).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Maddon's agent is the one who negotiated the details of the contract, including the opt-out. When their GM/VP or whatever left for the Dodgers, the agent informed Maddon, who, with just one year remaining on his contract, naturally used it as leverage to try to get an extension on favorable terms. Maddon and the Rays couldn't agree on those terms, he opted out, and as befits the reputation he built in Tampa, his services were immediately sought be other teams (or other team's fans ). Given the facts we know, it's actually quite simple and does not at all suggest tampering, falling out, etc. That's certainly plausible, but most of the debate here centers on "why?" If it's at all due to money, that's another confirmation of the Twins reputation, and not a flattering or productive one from an on-field results standpoint -- free agents (managers or players) should always be willing to at least consider joining your organization.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    First of all, it feels like a lot of the "Maddon officially going to the Cubs" talk is still speculative. It's not at all clear that he's been hired behind anyone's back yet. Second of all, how do we know that Renteria hasn't been consulted about the process? Absent a report specifically saying that he hasn't been, I am going to assume the Cubs were up-front with Renteria here.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    FIP is useful but again I have to stress that it often under-shoots bad pitching performances. Twins have under-performed their FIP every season since 2009, sometimes by considerable margins. Furthermore, the 3 FA starters they signed last offseason all were career FIP underperformers when they came here, including Nolasco by a big margin. I agree that the starting pitcher group is better than it was a year or two ago, and the defense could definitely use some improvement, but I don't think the 2014 group earned or deserved a 4.03 ERA either. Nor it is likely that the same group will post that mark next year.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    First of all, better relievers wouldn't have stranded all of those runners -- PERFECT relievers would have. In 2014, Twins relievers allowed 31% of inherited runners to score, compared to a league average of 29%. That was a difference of 6 runs for the whole season. I know our bullpen could use some improvement, but don't pretend it was a serious factor handicapping our starting pitcher performances.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Pavano only made 11 starts in 2012. His performance (or lack thereof) wasn't the problem -- the problem was the degree to which we relied on him. And actually, if we stand pat with our current starting staff, I worry that we might be relying a little too much on certain players/prospects in 2015. Buehrle would actually help mitigate that.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Pinto would be a high cost, I would not do that. I was thinking more along the lines of Gilmartin/Adam type pieces or minor league bullpen arms (i.e. if we're not sold on either Achter or Tonkin). I guess Levi Michael might be a roughly equivalent position player.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Pavano took a one-year, $7 mil deal to stay after we traded for him. Then, after the second-best season of his career and a Twins division title, 2 years, $16 mil. (I could do without the 2 years, but those are pretty low-risk, reasonable costs and terms if the guy is performing and you still have a need for him.)
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    For an outside candidate, Pohlad might be playing the role of recruiter rather than interviewer. (Or cheerleader -- my guess is he just wants to meet the guys. Not sure if this is unusual in MLB managerial searches.)
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    They can't do both things? I think the assumption of this thread has been that any trade chips that would net you Buehrle would matter very little in any potential blockbuster. (Think if the Mets had dealt Kevin Mulvey before we finalized the Johan deal with them -- I think they still would have gotten something done ) Adding 3 wins from 1 roster spot would be quite outstanding for the 2015 Twins, and worth the gamble of cash and a marginal prospect. Reminds me of the less-famous move by the Royals before the 2013 season: dealing a marginal minor leaguer for Ervin Santana and his $13 mil salary. He contributed 3 WAR as the Royals jumped from 74 pythag wins to 86 real wins (and relevance) in one winter. (Not saying the Twins would do the same, obviously, but a Buehrle pickup would help toward that goal.)
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    My assumption is, if someone writes an article about someone else with the same last name and DOESN'T disclose a relationship, they're not related. I guess he could have put a parenthetical "(no relation)" after the first mention of the subject's name, but that, to me, looks a little unprofessional (not to mention perhaps incorrectly assumes the reader knows the author's name -- actually maybe that is why it looks unprofessional).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Who's holding the football in that picture? And why is Madden so excited?
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    And not only does it minimize the risk in 2015, if he likes it here and our record improves, I think it gives us the inside track to possibly retain him year-to-year going forward as his health/performance and our needs dictate (like Pettitte or Wakefield, or Pavano and Thome in recent Twins history -- all of those guys contributed in their later careers, and none of them were millstones, at least not for very long or at any great cost).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    You think I am arguing against aging curves, or risk of collapse increasing with age? I am not, and I hope I haven't given that impression at all. If you're on board for Buehrle for a B prospect, we're fully in agreement. I certainly don't guarantee or even expect that he will repeat his career numbers or his 2014 performance, but I certainly think that given the evidence we have for him, and the current state of our staff, taking a chance on him for 2015 is easily worth a B prospect and 1 year at $19 million.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Did I say it was the best way? Hey, if the Twins want to sign a more expensive free agent this winter, or they're really confident they can sign and turn around Masterson or Morrow or whomever, or they can magically steal a younger better starter for marginal cost in trade, I say go for it and forget about Buehrle. A Buehrle acquisition might be the most realistic option of that bunch, though (although I still doubt whether the Jays would part with him so cheaply). Also, the one-year part of the Buehrle commitment is a plus in my mind, not a minus.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Who's clinging to career averages? Buehrle's worst career season by ERA+ (95) and/or IP (201) would be helpful to the 2015 Twins. Heck, he could undershoot both of those by 10% and still turn in a Gibson 2014 season.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    "We can't even give our money away", manager edition. As I've stated, I'd love to see them be aggressive with Maddon even if he doesn't really want to come here and/or the Twins ultimately don't want to pay his price (and I wouldn't blame them if we somehow had to significantly top $5 million annually). The message that a Maddon interview and token offer would send to the other prospective managers ("this is the kind of manager and culture we want to establish here") would be good (not to mention a good message to the fans too).
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Were we committed to the rebuild last winter, when we signed Nolasco and Pelfrey and still offered deals to Garza and Santana? I don't think the circumstances have changed all that much since then. We're still trying to get this staff (and this club) back to respectability, and given where we are coming from, I think it is going to take a mix of prospects and veterans to do that in any kind of timely fashion.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    This assumes that both Nolasco and Milone rebound, Hughes doesn't regress, and nobody gets hurt. I'll take the "under" on that scenario, and even if it did happen and Meyer and May were both healthy and ready, there would be nothing stopping the Twins from dealing from an apparent position of strength (or breaking in Meyer/May in the pen, particularly if the team is a surprise contender or waits to deal an arm until the deadline). And if the Twins stick by poor performing veterans (including potentially Buehrle) while keeping May and Meyer on the sidelines, that's a problem with the Twins, NOT with the presence of Buehrle. Remember, we had the WORST starting staff in the league by ERA and IP in 2014 -- the idea that there somehow isn't room for one more pitcher, with an above average track record, on a one-year commitment is crazy talk. I might agree with this, although I know nothing of Tomas, I am not sure Tomas would take that deal (has there been a similarly structured international deal?), and I am almost certain the Twins can handle both. Put another way, if the Twins already had Buehrle under contract for 2015 at $19 million (and minus a few marginal prospects, to make the scenarios fully equivalent), that shouldn't preclude a significant offer to Tomas if they like him. (And if it does preclude such an offer, that's another problem with the Twins and not with the presence of Buehrle.)
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Nope. His career average is 117 ERA+ and 217 IP. He could be notably worse than that and still provide positive value to the 2015 Twins. (By comparison, Nolasco's career averages entering last season were 94 ERA+ and 192 IP.) Less than 2 WAR? The last 4-5 seasons he's posted virtually identical GS/IP numbers every year, and he's averaged 3.4 WAR in that span according to B-Ref. Only once has he been below that average too, his career low 2.1 WAR in 2013. Assuming he was available for a marginal prospect (like Pavano/Rauch/Cabrera in 2009), for no more than $19 million on a one-year commitment this offseason, you're not going to find much better than Buehrle. (Actually I kinda doubt that Buehrle would be available for a marginal prospect this offseason, but there should be no question he would be a positive addition to the Twins if that were the case.)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    "Decent chance he implodes spectacularly"? I know he's not young, but this seems pretty hyperbolic for perhaps the most consistent and durable pitcher of the last 15 years coming off a season of basically posting his career average numbers.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Even in that absolute worst-case scenario, Buehrle's portion of that "ridiculous expensive mess" would be completely off the books at the end of the 2015 season. There's basically no such thing as a one-season expensive mess in MLB. And if Nolasco might be a moderately expensive longer-term mess, that's a wholly separate problem.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    First of all, I think your math is slightly wrong. Twins average playoff opponent had 99 regular season wins from 2002-2010, to the Twins' 92. Is 6-21 (and most recently 2-19, with a 12 game losing streak finish) an expected recorded, even for a 92 win team versus a 99 win team? I am not laying all of this at the foot of Gardy, of course, but whether he's a clear playoff underperformer or a clear regular season overperformer, it renders a lot of the regular season analysis in this thread moot.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't know how true this really is. Bullpen blowing late leads only happened a couple times, really -- Game 2 in 2009 and Game 4 in 2004. (Game 2 in 2004 and Game 5 in the 2002 ALCS our bullpen entered trailing, and we later took a lead before immediately losing it in the following half-inning.) Frankly, we didn't have hardly any leads to blow. In all 3 of our series covering 2002-2003, after winning game 1, we didn't even have another lead until we were facing elimination (thank goodness for the Oakland playoff curse!). In 2004, after winning Game 1, we only held a lead for 1 inning before the elimination game. In 2009 and 2010, we only held a lead for 5 innings COMBINED, and 3 of those were in 2010 Game 1. 2009 Game 2 was the only one of those leads held beyond the 5th inning. In 2006, we never had a lead at all.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I know some excuses can be made for some of our playoff failures, but the sample size got pretty large there -- it's really hard to excuse that. Especially all the sweeps (or win one, then get swept like 2002-2004) -- even a 92 win team shouldn't be expected to lost 12 straight games to a 101 win team. If you want more context, Maddon's teams lost to the eventual AL pennant winner every year (in addition to their own pennant year, of course). Three times Gardy's Twins were eliminated (and 2 of the 3 times, swept) by a team that immediately lost its next series.
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