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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree with this. But, the context of this discussion seems to be, do you acquire a MLB OF for 2015, or do you let Rosario compete for a job along with the scraps leftover from our 2014 outfield? You don't have to expect the worst case from Rosario to see how the latter option is far riskier. Heck, with Santana apparently heading back to SS, we have TWO openings in the OF. We could acquire a veteran for one spot and there would still be plenty of room for Rosario to force himself into the lineup.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I saw something like this posted in another thread about Rasmus and how little he met a .740 OPS threshold. Remember, a .740 OPS is actually pretty good now. In Seattle 2014, it would be about a 115 OPS+, roughly equivalent to Dozier's 2014 production (and a little better than Plouffe's). Even in slight hitter's environments like Minnesota and Toronto, it would be about a 105 OPS+, comfortably above average. It's not really a good threshold to use anymore.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Not quite true -- Santana played the first month of 2014 in AAA before his recall.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    When TR left in 2007, the RECORD international bonus was around $2.5 mil, or less than we guaranteed Ramon Ortiz the prior season. Yet the Twins were among the least active and lowest spending MLB teams internationally throughout TR's first tenure. Also, Target Field was approved in 2005, and the Twins had a young superstar pitcher at the time and two more superstar players emerged in 2006. Yet TR didn't sign any of them beyond 1 FA year. While the Metrodome revenue was certainly a limiting factor, given his record across everything (FA, trades, international, draft, extensions), I am pretty comfortable concluding TR is very conservative and slow to change/react. My theory on last offseason was less that TR was dragged kicking and screaming into FA by Pohlad, and more that he was dragged kicking and screaming into FA by two historically awful seasons of starting pitching. That's why I am skeptical we will see a big sign for OF this year -- it doesn't look to be in quite as bad of shape as that (although without Santana, it could be close).
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    We're already rolling the dice on a few other pitchers, including some youth (May/Meyer). Adding Masterson doesn't guarantee anything, but it gives us an extra dice roll.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    When you add as little MLB talent as the Twins have by FA and trade, historically, you should take it when it presents itself. Waiting for next offseason, or until a player comes along at a different position, greatly increases the chances you add no talent. If Arcia, Vargas, and Sano all reach their full potential in addition to Tomas, that would be a good problem to have. This is, of course, predicated on the idea that the Twins scouts genuinely like Tomas (i.e. not another Nishioka stab in the dark) and his price doesn't get insane (i.e. $100 mil).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Minor league counting stats, particularly split by league thus eliminating guys promoted midseason, are not necessarily great indicators of MLB success. Walker is still a prospect, but the above is more trivia than anything else.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Who would be the four Twins OF prospects ahead of Moya? Buxton I know, but I think Moya is pretty much in the next tier with the other Twins minor league OF. For all of his flaws, keep in mind that most Twins prospects below Buxton/Sano have plenty of flaws too. Also, Moya has already dominated a AA pitcher's league and even got a cup of coffee in MLB, and he's the same age as Walker and Rosario, and only a year older than Kepler. He's also beating Kepler/Rosario by quite a bit in AFL OPS this fall (and for all his lack of discipline, he has more walks in that league than Rosario). Also, Moya is only the Tigers top prospect (by BA, at least) because they just graduated a BA top 25 guy younger than most of the above (Castellanos) and traded another BA Top 100 guy (Devon Travis). I won't disagree that their system is weak, but then again, I don't think they've had a very good farm system in quite a while. I don't think farm system rankings have a terribly high correlation with MLB wins.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    If Blyleven or Morris become serious candidates for the spot, I think it would be impossible not to conclude this coaching shake-up was little more than a re-shuffling of Terry Ryan's rolodex.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the Offseason Handbook interview had it...? I expect TR's influence will be felt mostly in the pitching coach selection.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I may agree with your conclusion a bit, but you really shouldn't compare contracts from 2014 to contracts from 2010, at least not without some hefty qualifiers and adjustments. At the time of its signing, Mauer's extension was the largest non-Arod deal in MLB history, both in total dollars and in AAV. Hard to argue that it was *significantly* below market. Teixeira signed for ever-so-slightly less the previous winter, and obviously played a less important defensive position, but catchers also play less than any other position, so Teixeira actually averaged basically the same WAR per full season as Mauer prior to their respective deals, was only one year older at the time, and the Twins had to guarantee Mauer's contract one year before it even started. Unless Mauer had repeated his crazy 2009 performance in 2010 (which I hope the Twins didn't expect, but you never know), I don't think he gets significantly more than 8/184 on the open market that winter. The time to get a notably below-market deal with Mauer was a few years earlier. I wonder if TR or Mauer was the hold-up on that -- I suspect TR because he never bought out more than a year beyond free agency for anybody, even after the Target Field deal was struck in 2005, and Mauer doesn't strike me as someone who would ever want to leave Minnesota (although he certainly may have wanted to maximize his leverage/earnings here).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorry, I didn't mean to derail this thread. Absolutely did not mean to spark another debate about talent acquisition. My point was simply the recent coaching hires reflect some of the franchise's historical complacency. Some of that is actually refreshing, compared to teams like the Vikings, Wolves, and Gophers, who often seem to cycle through renegade coaches and players. But it would be nice to see TR make a little bolder move somewhere along the line, especially when a coaching shake-up presents a multitude of opportunities to do so (or in the case of player acquisition, a lengthy rebuilding process presents similar opportunities).
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    AXA? The Anguilla airport?
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Now that there are slots and spending caps for amateurs, yes we have improved in that regard. Still doesn't change the fact that TR generally doesn't like any market where MLB mandates everybody takes turns. I think "hire from the guys I know" seems to be the coaching corollary.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Viola does have a concession stand named after him. On a case-by-case basis, you can justify any of these guys, of course. But at some point, when TR is like 6-for-6 or whatever at hiring former Twins and Minnesotans for every available coaching spot, you have to wonder how deep he's really looking, you know? And how much is prioritizing familiarity over results, innovation, etc.? This is the same sense I've gotten from the Twins for years in regards to player acquisition too -- their attitude seems to be "we'll do our best to win with what draft picks we have" as they've mostly ignored free agency and the international markets. I like most of the hires so far too, but I just can't shake that TR is prioritizing comfort and familiarity far too much in what was advertised as a organizational shake-up.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I try not to read too much into it too, but it was basically a continuation of his bizarre MLB performance (low AVG, very little power, but inexplicably some walks). The strange nature of the batting line gives me some hope that can he eventually right the ship, although I'd have him do that at AAA or on the MLB bench.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree, but I think there is ample evidence that an outfielder's potential range of improvement is much less than an infielder's.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    It wasn't my intent for that qualifier to be overly picky. Actually you could drop it altogether and the statement is still true -- I think all of our native/resident Minnesotan hires have been internal promotions anyway (with the exception of Glynn's original hiring for Rochester in 2012, if you want to lump that in). If the Twins indeed tab Viola, regardless of whether he may be qualified, it will feel like they are taking the former Twin / local boy angle to an almost ridiculous extreme. TR is a smart baseball guy -- I simply don't buy that the best fellow baseball minds he can find are all former Twins and local guys. Those are just the baseball people he's most comfortable working with, which is partly how we got into the 2011-2014 mess we are in (particularly when you factor in the earlier Bill Smith promotion).
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I hadn't been following the AFL, so I just looked up the stats. Rosario leads the AFL in AVG and SB, but his OPS ranks only 24th out of 64 batters, thanks to very few walks and XBH. Without regards to park factors, that's about a 107 OPS+. His OBP ranks 29th, his SLG 24th, and even his K% only ranks 26th. And while the AFL features some top prospects, remember a lot of these guys are much more modest prospects like Kepler or Jason Adam. Heck, even some of the top prospects in this league are pretty raw, like Raul Mondesi Jr (defensive-minded 19 year old SS prospect who just OPS'd .610 in high-A ball). Rosario's walk rate appears to be second to last in the league, ahead of only the aforementioned Mondesi. His isolated power ranks 47th, actually behind Mondesi. Solid AFL performances can be encouraging, but an AFL performance would have to be pretty extraordinary to affect a team's offseason decision-making. If Rosario wants to force his way onto the roster next spring, great, but Rosario shouldn't be a factor in our pursuit of a FA outfielder. (Not to pick on you, I think you agree, just a general statement. )
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    By B-Ref's best estimates, Oliva was an above-average outfielder from day 1 in MLB.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Would it bother anyone else that basically every major coaching hire made by TR since 2011 could be an internal promotion, a former Twin, and/or a Minnesota native/resident? I mean, I understand when fans default to speculating about these guys for open spots, because that's really the extent of most fans' knowledge about such matters. But when the MLB organization actually does it, to this extent (assuming Viola gets the pitching coach spot), I can't help but feel it's a bit of a lazy, close-minded, old-school, country-club approach. It also wouldn't be a good sign for Molitor as a "fresh thinker" if he fails to extend outside this circle for ANY of his coaching staff hires. And it pretty much guarantees Rob Antony would take over if TR stepped down again in the near future, and we'd all be bracing ourselves for Bill Smith 2.0.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Some batters can improve after that number of PAs, yes. But if a team gives every guy that many MLB PAs, no matter how bad they look (even in AAA in the case of Hicks) before they make a final judgement on them... well, you wind up looking a lot like the 2011-2014 Twins. Also, Jordan Schafer is 28 years old. Hunter, Gomez, and Cuddyer were largely finished products as hitters by age 25-26 (Cuddy was actually a league-average hitter from the get-go at age 23). And I don't think any of them ever looked as thoroughly lost (from an AVG/SLG perspective) as Hicks has looked the past two seasons.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Never mind Hicks - if Schafer was actually capable of hitting righthanders to the tune of .326 AVG, .390 OBP over any significant sample, we wouldn't have an outfield problem. (He also wouldn't have been on waivers in August, of course.)
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins were mildly aggressive (is that a thing? ) when they acquired Meyer, slotting him into AA. He injured his shoulder on June 1st that year, which knocked him out over 2 months and pretty much nixed his chance at a midseason or late season promotion. True, they handled him with kid gloves in 2014, including passing him up for promotions which many of us disagreed with, but it does seem to be health-related. As a poster upthread mentioned, Perkins, Baker, Slowey, Garza, Gibson, Hendriks, and now Berrios have all been moved quickly through the system. (Lohse, Radke, and Milton are a few older names that moved quickly. Adam Johnson too.) The Twins problem has been lack of such prospects, or the prospects busting. Maybe we're more conservative with international guys rather than draft guys, but in the Terry Ryan era, we don't even have a international signing equivalent of Yordano Ventura to compare against, really.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I get the situational factors around Meyer, but I don't think this phrasing is going to win many arguments.
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