Otto von Ballpark

I probably used mainly Cuban as examples, but in my larger point, I tried avoiding focusing on any particular players to avoid the dreaded "so-and-so wouldn't have signed here for X reason" response. In doing some research for my post, I've actually surprised myself at the number of big international signings there have been over the past 3-4 years, and how many teams found themselves in on the action.

I guess this is your usual "he'll make the adjustments and be OK" line about players, translated for front office personnel?

121 career OPS+, in almost 1500 PA, all before his 22nd birthday. 125 career wRC+. Positive baserunning value. Basically average or better fielding. I have no idea what we're debating, but Harper's pretty good.

Yeah, I noticed that too. There is basically nothing that group could collectively do at this point to even have a .500 median Vegas projection by opening day. So I am chalking it up to a genie typo/mistake, which frankly makes me suspicious of the genie's offer entirely. I think I pass on the offer, bid the genie farewell, and vow to finally quit drinking and drugs.

You're the one who has limited this to "Cuban outfielders" and specifically just two of them. Let me preface this by saying I'm not criticizing TR for not signing any specific guy, but since TR took over in 2011, here is a list of "major" international free agents which TR has taken little or no documented interest in: Darvish Cespedes Iwakuma Chen Wada Aoki Soler Ryu Puig Gonzalez Abreu Diaz Arruebarrena Guerrero Castillo Despaigne That's just off the top of my head. The max guarantee in this group was $72 mil for 6-7 years, but most of them for around Willingham money (~$25 mil) or less, almost all controllable for 6+ years. 13 different organizations signed the above guys, some of them signed multiples. Expand it a couple years earlier (and throw in the Yankees/Tanaka blockbuster, which I intentionally excluded), and you will find a majority of MLB organizations made some kind of major Cuban/Asian player investment. Yet some unknown modest offer to Sosnick-Cobbe client Iwakuma (who ultimately signed with Seattle for $1.9 mil guaranteed, although he left money on the table) is the only documented interest I can find from TR. Why? No room in our 2012-2015+ organization? Liked the domestic FA market better? Doesn't like bidding? Bill Smith's bad experience with Nishioka? Fear of the unknown? And I will repeat: I don't necessarily think this is a fireable offense, but in combination with his actions and statements about the domestic FA market, it's an area I would question TR's strategy (or lack thereof), certainly in light of his recent negative assessment of Gardy's role in the rebuild (the topic of this thread).

What does the passage you quote have anything to do with Ortiz? I am confused. Again, you asked if there was anything TR could have done differently to speed the rebuild and return to contention. I replied that instead of treading $100 million worth of 30+ year old water in domestic free agency (and complaining about getting stymied in your efforts to spend more there), similar investments in high-ceiling international free agents would have been better. Small-market Oakland did it; division rival White Sox did it. Rebuilding Cubs did it; Orioles tried it; I-don't-know-how-to-classify-them Seattle did it too. Evidence suggests TR did nothing more than dip his toes into the Iwakuma pond, briefly, at the start of his new tenure. If you didn't want to hear that answer, why did you ask the question? Nowhere did "huge organizational deficiency" or David Ortiz come up.

Hey! I just remembered! Haven't there been a few decent starting pitchers to come out of Japan, Korea, and Taiwan recently? I see TR was in the mix for Iwakuma (Sosnick-Cobbe client) in his first months back as GM, but he declined to blow away Seattle's modest offer. I do not recall us pursuing any other international free agent pitchers.

I'm actually not picking on TR's international scouting. The problem was he has invested $130 million the past three years on domestic free agents, $100 million of that on players age 30 and over, that did very little to further the rebuild or bring us back to contention. Now, pocketing that money doesn't really get us back to contention quicker either. So the international free agents I listed were just examples of how he could have better used that money to get potential impact players and long-term assets, rather than treading water with an admittedly weak domestic FA crop.

Yeah, let's compartmentalize the roster. No sense even bidding on impact talent that's not starting pitchers. It's not like that talent could be traded for a starting pitcher, or allow you to trade other players/prospects for starting pitchers.

The Twins have never been 5th in international signings and development, outside of perhaps some window centered on Sano and 2009. And when TR took over the team in 2011, they certainly were not 5th by any measure of overall talent acquisition. That was the whole premise of this discussion -- what could TR have done differently, beginning in the fall of 2011, to speed up the rebuild and return to contention? And the fact that they have a top-5 minor league system today is fantastic, but given the immense advantage of 3 consecutive top 5 draft picks and draft/spending caps, it's not at all clear they have been top-5 in talent acquisition adjusted for opportunity since 2011 either.

You're basically falling back on, "I like our top 10 prospects." Which is great, but it has nothing to do with: why did the rebuilding Twins participate in domestic free agency for modest returns, when they could have easily participated in international free agency for potentially elite players at similar prices? This whole thing started when you asked, what could TR have done differently so far in his second tenure that would have made the Twins better and competitive faster? "Seriously bid on the major international free agent talent instead of modest domestic free agents" is, I think, a valid answer to that question, and one that does not require any hindsight benefit (the bidding and consensus opinions suggest these international players had great long-term potential, which was of far greater benefit to the 2012-2014 Twins than safe short-term mediocrity).

I sorta get what you're saying, but I can't agree. Signing Miguel Sano for $3.15 million in 2009 was great, and a welcome change from the Twins international efforts pre-2009, but it's really a different ballgame than targeting major Cuban/Asian talent. (Actually, on that note -- the Nishioka signing certainly drags down the Twins 2009-2014 international ranking, no?) The Twins, as a rebuilding club shedding salary obligations, with a depleted farm system and new ballpark resources, had a clear opportunity to get potentially elite talent for mid-tier domestic FA prices. By all accounts, they chose not to participate (or at least not bid seriously). I don't see why they don't deserve some criticism for that, especially when Cuban/Asian talents are still being signed, and the most recent results still suggest solid value in them.

Interesting take, thanks for explaining. First of all, starting this in 2009 seems like a very selective endpoint. Secondly, I don't know if we rank anywhere near that high. There's Sano, then... Jorge Polanco? Lewis Thorpe? We've gotten zero MLB production from international players signed since 2009, and Sano is our only post-2009 international signee to even make BA's Top 100 prospect lists (hopefully that will change for 2015?). Just glancing at Rookie of the Year voting, 7 post-2009 international signees have already received RoY votes, a couple more are guaranteed to do so this winter, and another 3 who didn't get RoY votes got MVP votes instead. And that's not even counting guys like Soler, Franco, etc. who are closer to Sano's development track. Not saying I'd trade Sano for all of those guys, but it does highlight how Sano's production is still very much speculative.

I don't know, but Vargas had yet to play above A-ball at the time and was never considered a top prospect in the league (undrafted free agent!). But the fact that Vargas was on the 40-man roster and was set to open the year in AA suggested he could very easily get a cup of coffee at some point during the year. Santana exceeded that same criteria last year too. Sano should meet or exceed it next year as well.

I think they might be viewing Sano 2015 like they view Meyer 2014. Had yet to play above AA, recent health concerns, still has things to learn or work on in the minors. Still, a little different for a position player than a pitcher. I would be a little surprised if Sano didn't even warrant a September 2015 call-up, given he's going on the 40-man roster this winter, but you never know. Maybe TR doesn't consider a September call-up to honor the spirit of the question.

Maybe Dozier and Plouffe to net one of the starter additions (Gio Gonzalez? Mat Latos with extension?) would have been better. Signing both Shields and Lester is pretty over-the-top. Of course, who am I to tell an imaginary genie how to do his job?

They just signed Jhonny Peralta for 4/53 entering his age-32 season. Previously they signed Rafael Furcal for his ages 33-34 seasons. At catcher, they long ago guaranteed Yadier Molina $43 million covering his ages 32-34 seasons.

Why wouldn't the Cardinals do it?

Hold it -- y'all are against the JJ Hardy extension? Dude's last 4 seasons by fWAR: 4.3, 2.7, 3.4, 3.4 By bWAR: 4.1, 3.2, 3.9, 3.4 It's been largely defense, but they've coaxed some pretty impressive performances out of non-star pitchers the past few years too. They're a playoff team, they don't have any SS/3B replacements ready, and he signed for only 3/40. (Bonus points that it took a SS off the market for the division runner-up.) The Twins trade (or basically salary dump) of JJ Hardy to Baltimore is one of the worst baseball moves I have ever witnessed. Nothing about it -- the reasoning, the money, his replacements, the return -- makes a lick of sense. And it's a great big bummer to be reminded of it while trying to enjoy some playoff baseball...

Rich Robertson, your 1996 AL co-leader in shutouts? Never!

I've seen this stated here before (and I think I've debunked it before), but here goes again: Escobar did not hit all that well in the winter leagues last year (2013). He ranked 30th out of 35 qualified batters in his league in OPS, sandwiched between former Twins greats Luis Maza and Alex Romero. In both AVG and OBP, he was second to last, behind even Oswaldo Arcia. He did improve his power output over his previous significant winter league season (2011) -- 3 more doubles and 3 more HR in similar AB, although also almost twice as many strikeouts, which seems to reinforce what we saw briefly at Rochester in 2013 and finally in Minnesota (in the form of doubles and strikeouts) in 2014. To stay a viable starter, he will have to maintain that power, and show/maintain some defensive chops (On a per-150 game rate, Fangraphs has him +4 runs at short in 2014, B-Ref has him -9). Even then, with some BABIP fluctuation, he may only be a 85-95 OPS+ hitter with an OBP struggling to crack .300. I think I still pursue an OF addition this winter, with Santana back to the OF and Escobar starting at SS as the fallback option.

"Future Now" would be great if all of those players were ready, but I don't think even the most optimistic of us really believes that will happen by opening day. Berrios and Buxton would probably be very fortunate to make September debuts next year (and Sano doing the same is hardly out of the question too). I like that "Win Now" roster except for the trade of Plouffe/Dozier for Kemp. Why give up two starting position players who lack immediate replacements if you're so willing to spend on Lester/Shields/Cabrera? WHY DID YOU INCLUDE THAT CONTRADICTORY TRADE, IMAGINARY GENIE?! Otherwise, this is a great year to target elite FA if you are ever going to do so because our 1st round draft pick is again protected (hopefully for the last time), hopefully we've come far enough that losing a 2nd and possibly 3rd round pick isn't going to impact us much, and we have no big upcoming internal salary obligations for the next 6 years. Imagine starting with that team -- AND being able to fill in with a few cheap top prospects as they become ready (perhaps even in the bullpen as needed). The strange Kemp deal, though, might almost be enough to swing me to the "Patience Now" roster. (Especially if the Patience Now roster could also feature some side investments in international players -- does the imaginary genie allow such follow-up questions/requests? )

Yeah, I don't actually mind "overpay" if it means you get a guy you want. Probably just meant more desperation in this case, like we let our pitching get so bad we couldn't afford to wait out the market anymore. I don't like to examine the pitching and hitting sides independently, though -- while both the domestic and international pitching markets have been relatively thin/weak lately, if we had been able to snag an impact bat internationally, it could have A) helped compensate for some of our poor pitching, and given us another asset to use directly or indirectly (i.e. allowed us to trade a prospect) to acquire pitching help.

As an aside: Kepler probably has neutral at best trade value right now, due to the 40-man roster spot he requires while being nowhere near MLB. Might be a negative for some teams.

I hope you are talking fastball speeds and not pitchers from the mid-1990s.