Otto von Ballpark

To be fair, had they been able to force a tiebreaker game, they would have only had to face lesser Cardinals starters Lackey/Miller (albeit in St Louis). It's hard to blame them for trying to go that route and avoid an elimination game against Bumgarner. I suspect another factor here is that they over-rated Volquez and his recent good run (mostly against inferior competition).

You may be right overall, but "involved with the game" is a pretty weak standard. He spent the 9 seasons before 2014 as a roving minor league baserunning/infield instructor for the Twins -- that doesn't sound like someone who necessarily has his finger on the top innovative MLB coaching talent. Moreover, his one season as hitting coach for Seattle was a disaster, and he was canned along with the manager afterwards. Has he ever pursued (or been pursued) for another position outside the Twins? Not sure what happened with him in 2002 either, when Gardy was chosen as TK's replacement, but Molitor left the Twins coaching staff at that point too. Did he want to manage? Why not try elsewhere? It's great that he's a local boy, but there's something to be said for the guys who are willing to pack up and work away from home, which suggests a particular (and probably unhealthy!) passion for the game. I know there was talk of a divorce affecting his coaching job pursuits/interest, but he has not struck me as a particularly driven, ambitious baseball person, post-retirement. No doubt he knows some things about the game and he knows some people in it -- but will those people be passionate about the modern game? Or will they just be friends looking for a comfortable landing spot, like Molitor arguably has been doing for 15 years, judging by his post-retirement resume?

I meant TR and the front office.

Does TR have any commemorative baseballs worth stealing? The last out of the 2002 ALDS? I think that's still clutched by Denny Hocking's severed hand somewhere...

My post sort of assumes that you like Sano's odds of sticking at 3B. If that's not the case, obviously you probably hold onto your incumbent third baseman. That said, Plouffe may have just had a peak season, he's starting to cost more money, and he will flip over to "the wrong side of 30" in 2016. Even if you keep him and Sano doesn't stick, you're still more than likely going to need another solution at the position, long-term and perhaps even short-term.

As for pitching coach -- how big and up-to-date could Molitor's rolodex be? He just hasn't seemed that involved in the game since retiring, except lurking around the Twins system and his one-year cameo in Seattle. Not that the manager has to pick the pitching coach, but his input would be nice. And without his input, we'd basically be relying on the judgement of the guy(s) who rubber-stamped Dick Such for 15 years and Rick Anderson for the next 13.

Molitor's coaching experience is 3 years under TK, 1 year under Gardy, and 1 disastrous year under Bob Melvin in Seattle. Every one of those seasons except 2001 under TK was a last place, 90+ loss season. He's actually older than Gardy (and both of them are surprisingly only 6-7 years younger than TK!). I guess Molitor has said some good things in interviews to suggest he's not quite so set in his ways as Gardy, but I just wished his record showed more of that.

If that was their expectation, it was a terrible one. 2010-2014 is 5 seasons. Radke is about the only Twin to top that in recent memory. Milton I guessed made it exactly 5 seasons before he was injured/traded. Even if healthy and successful, contract issues make it fairly unlikely that a guy will last that long. Santana wasn't even a full-time Twins starter for 5 years. I think more likely, they just over-estimated their depth when they dealt Garza and Santana, and over-estimated their SP prospects/drafts at the time (Gibson, Hendriks... Humber?).

Agreed, but at this point, Walker is a player with the potential to be a great PROSPECT, rather than already being a stud prospect with the potential to be a good MLB PLAYER. He's an extra level removed than Sano/Meyer, with an appropriate downgrade in success odds/value. Not that TR's baseball acumen can't also say "I like Walker more than the consensus scouting" and keep him -- but the problem is, he seems to always feel that way about all his prospects.

Less of a log jam now, though, with Cueto, Latos, Leake, and even Alfredo Simon all set to hit FA next winter. (And Alfredo Simon probably not even worth his final arb. award this winter)

Not to jump too far back, but of those 7 guys you list, only Sano and Meyer could be stars, really. The rest are mid-tier at best prospects, who either haven't played above A-ball or haven't had a whole lot of success above A-ball yet. The odds that any of them delivers great value as MLBers is not impossible, but not probable either. (That said, their inclusion in any trade is more numbers-based insurance, really.) Still, that leaves Sano and Meyer which are two very good pieces. BUT, if you are legitimately concerned with either, you should be open to dealing them. I suspect the Royals did this with Wil Myers (they pegged his ceiling lower than most observers)... the Rays did it with Delmon Young (albeit after a full MLB season -- damn, what a stupid trade for us)... the Mets probably did it with Gomez. Obviously these guys can still become good players, but if you make your living judging baseball talent, and you think that a guy's ceiling is lower than most others predict, or he will take longer to reach his potential, or whatever -- you should explore capitalizing on that value difference to make your MLB team better, not just in the short run but the long run too. KC held onto all kinds of prospects before Myers and got pretty spotty results from them. The Twins seem to take the "we like all of our prospects" stance a little too much for my taste, probably colored by their well-established historical preference for cheap players and tolerance of losing seasons. I guess that's better than making an incorrect value judgement on a young player (Garza, Ramos), but again, if you consider yourself good at judging baseball talent (Bill Smith should not have ), you are capable of making these kind of value judgements. And if you are honestly looking to maximize success at the MLB level, you should probably swing one of these deals every once and awhile.

Little worried if Molitor gets the job. He's definitely not outside blood, he hasn't had any coaching experience outside the Twins except being the Mariners hitting coach in 2004 (a last place team which finished last in runs scored, albeit in a pitcher's park -- although by OPS+, they weren't much better, third worst in the league -- and with an aging lineup). Who exactly is he going to recommend as a pitching coach, etc.? What new ideas will he bring to the table? Not that he can't do it, but it would be nice to have some tangible evidence for that ability.

I think I agree... but Plouffe may be at the peak of his value too. There is a very real chance you won't be able to trade him for much useful (or get much useful play out of him) if/when Sano is ready, assuming you believe Sano will stick at 3B. That said, Plouffe's "peak" value probably isn't that high either -- it's not like other teams don't know his age/history. Still, it's one of the few spots the Twins could make a calculated move with right now.

"Another Pelfrey type"? I don't want the current Pelfrey type blocking anyone either. I pretty much agree, though -- any rotation upgrades this offseason should either be at the top, or at least have top potential (like recent Kazmir/Liriano reclamation projects). I have no problem if a legitimately good starter pushes a weak link in the current group out -- I just don't want to add anyone who will likely be just another weak link to sort through.

Agreed, but we're not talking about a one-year window/mandate here. TR didn't have to add a big contract in any particular year of 2012, 2013, or 2014 -- but within that 3 year window, given the resources available, he should have been allowed (and perhaps requested) to spend aggressively for the best talent he could find, when he found it. Lump 2015 into that group if you like. And if payroll/resources aren't the problem, and TR simply can't identify/sign a top FA talent over 4 offseasons, or the best he can come up with is Ricky Nolasco... maybe he needs help? Maybe he shouldn't be self-accountable GM for life?

Even if Gardy was the main advocate for those guys, that hardly absolves TR of blame. Just like Bill Smith deserves blame for dumping JJ Hardy when Gardy wanted a faster shortstop. You have to be able to tell your manager "no" (and I am pretty sure TR has done so in the past, which makes the 2014 reunion tours all the stranger).

That's basically what I mean. Dismissing him now is perfectly normal... but only if you ignore that he wasn't dismissed, and in fact was re-upped, in October 2013 when things looked much worse for our Twins than they do now.

The new starting catcher was a backup last year, and on a 1 year, $2.75 mil deal. Two other FAs? Who are they? Kubel and Bartlett? Those were non-roster invites to spring training (and should have remained "non-roster" ). I guess Morales showed up eventually... and don't forget, we also subtracted a couple league-averagish bats in Morneau and Doumit. Basically, a team with a historically bad pitching staff added zero impact prospects, 2 FA starters with career ~94 ERA+ marks, and improved by 4 wins and 12 pythag wins. I am really not sure how much more Gardy was supposed to do to save his job in 2014. I get the "time for a change" argument, but it does seem to me like he was set up to fail for 2014.

Santana was on short rest that day. Shields was on full rest today. And as I mentioned above, it didn't really matter. Balfour was lights out in the 6th and 7th innings. Rincon was going to pitch the 8th inning any way you slice it. It's one of the reasons I like to keep pitching changes to a minimum -- you never know when one guy just isn't going to have it one day, and before you know it, it will be too late. But that's awfully hard to do with a starter on short rest.

I believe Santana told him he was done. Wouldn't have mattered anyway, even if he went 7, Rincon was the "8th inning guy" and blew that game very quickly.

That's part of the advantage of trading for a guy -- you usually get a slightly shorter term on the contract, covering slightly younger ages, as compared to signing a free agent. But yeah, we shouldn't give up any talent in return -- cash is fine, though. I had similar thoughts back in 2003 when Boston was sending Manny Ramirez through waivers. I guess Alex Rios is a more modest recent example.

If that's the case, then Baseball-Reference is also a bit hazy. http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/2006_ALDS2.shtml

Sounds reasonable, but why oust Gardy now, then? Why not give him another year, and if it doesn't work, the new GM can pick a new manager and coaches too?

It's not the length of the contract that bugs me -- it's that TR and Gardy were at almost this exact crossroads last season, and TR re-upped Gardy. Then, with minimal change to the roster or payroll, and modest tangible improvement on the field, one year later TR fires the guy. What really changed in that one year? Doesn't seem to be poor performance related for Gardy (at least no more than TR).

And I don't even mind that Nathan started the 12th inning -- pushing your best players in close, important games is a great thing, IMO. 8-9-1 batters due up, try to ride the hot hand. But you've got to have a backup plan when your closer is past 40 pitches (not to mention, pitching for the second consecutive night) -- IIRC, Gardy didn't even have another reliever warming until Nathan was well into trouble. (And Nathan, for his part, made it clear as day when he was losing it -- four straight balls to the number 9 hitter is about as clear a signal as you will see.) Thanks for bringing this up, Nick.