Jump to content
Our top free agent ranking is up to 75 names; click here to check it out! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,669

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    74

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    All games are streaming free on MLB.tv today: http://mlb.mlb.com/mediacenter/index.jsp Could be fun to follow the KC game if the Twins-Tigers game stays close.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    On balance, I think the Twins pitchers performed as expected in the playoffs. Everybody but Reed was good in 2002. Silva scuffled in 2004, but Blackburn survived in 2009. Santana was generally strong throughout. Pavano and Liriano did OK with their opportunities too. Some of the other failures were Duensing (twice!), Bonser, last career start Radke... not exactly guys you would expect to succeed anyway. I always felt that our offense was the biggest letdown in those playoffs. A few guys had decent series, but rarely at the same time, and there were some big underperformers at times. There were also a few dregs in our starting lineups every series, sometimes due to injury, sometimes by design, but probably way too many for a consistent division winner. Of course, by the end, it felt like there was some other factor consistently holding the Twins back as well, not necessarily from winning a series but just from a occasionally winning a game and competing on a series level.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    First of all, it is hits saved, not runs saved. Secondly, like my response to Parker, I want to caution about jumping to conclusions like this. The Giants could have saved those hits by only shifting for the most obvious hitters and situations. Makes their standing in this particular report look good, but it really says nothing about whether a more aggressive shift strategy would have been more effective for them overall. We have the number of hits saved on shift plays; to really draw any conclusions, we would also need to know the number of hits teams allowed on non-shift plays, and how many of those could have been prevented by shifts. Perhaps we'd also need adjustments for pitching staff / park / league. And if the number of shifts are relatively low to the total number of plays, leverage/WPA effects would also be worth considering.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the data and link, Parker. However, I am slightly confused by the data and some of the conclusions here; specifically, what happened in the non-shift plays seems very important. If the Twins shifted ~300 fewer times than the Pirates, what if that cost them more than 17 hits? Then their shift strategy is still a net loser compared to Pittsburgh. Also, the timing of the shifts are ignored -- if the Pirates are more aggressive shifters, it suggests what hits they do prevent could be worth more than those of the Twins. The data in the article is cool, but it is similar to comparing raw basestealing percentages -- a team with a lower percentage of success may easily be getting more value if they are taking more attempts and timing them better. I think I'd have to see more data on this subject before I conclude (as some have here) that the Twins know more about effective shifting that they've let on.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Minor correction: Worley should finally be eligible for arbitration this winter, as a Super-2 player with 2 years, 139 days of service. Still doesn't change your main point, which was why we gave up on him for nothing. Even granting the success of Hughes, it seems more and more like the Twins acquire (and cast aside) MLB arms somewhat randomly these days. Which is a terrible strategy when you won't/can't acquire top-level arms.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    First of all, I think it was pretty clear I was talking draft AND international signings. And it's not simply a matter of drafting "clear consensus aces" with the top picks of the first round -- that's something a monkey could do (or even lower, a fan on a message board ). It's drafting (or signing) anyone, ever, that can even flash that kind of potential anywhere in pro ball. We're talking 20 years with Ryan/Smith at the helm, and I'm not sure if we ever signed a single Trevor May type during that time (4th rounder, very dominant A-ball season at young age rocketed him onto prospect rankings). Bunch of college control guys, Garza easily the standout of the group (and of course we inexplicably traded him right away). Maybe there were development issues at play too, but it's not like we had guys flash this stuff in A-ball and fail to advance -- we just haven't signed anybody who registered much in the lower minor league levels either. Super-cheapness has been my go-to excuse, but there have been plenty of guys like Trevor May who haven't broke their team's budgets. The good early returns on the 2012-2013 classes suggest the Twins wanted even more control on bidding for this type of talent, so hopefully we are better going forward.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    TR can't even give his incentive bonus money away.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Twins definitely deserve plenty of credit for Santana, and even some for Liriano. I think the draft/sign distinction is important, though, if only to identify why we've basically never been able to find these pitchers as amateurs (or even pitchers with this kind of upside that don't make it for whatever reason)? Thank goodness the amateur slots and spending caps came in 2012. Hopefully, Berrios, Stewart, and Thorpe represent a new breed of Twins amateur pitching talent acquisition.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree with all of this. But I think this all suggests it's also not a big deal to Hughes or potential free agents either way. It would only matter, in a negative way, if the Twins tried to keep him from getting the bonus, which clearly did not happen.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Really? Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu, plus Haren with a player option? The Dodgers might be hard to predict, but I don't think they're going to pay big (and taking a gamble on Nolasco would be paying big at this point) to fill the very back end of their rotation with a noted mediocrity. This year they filled it with a 1-year deal for Haren, the expiring contract of Beckett, Paul Maholm, the former Fausto Carmona... last year they filled it by giving up a few non-prospects for Nolasco's expiring deal.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    What if he was 2 outs short instead of 1? What if the rain delay and early exit occurred in May instead of September? He didn't reach the innings threshold under very normal, perfectly acceptable usage patterns/conditions. The bonus shouldn't be paid.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    We didn't sign/draft many guys with that potential for many years either.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Arguably, they never really rolled like that. Morris got a big AAV that year but a pretty short contract, very short when you consider the 2nd and 3rd years were player options. And of course he was 36 years old and a local boy coming off 3 years of combined 89 ERA+ pitching. The Twins weren't really big players in the FA market, but man did they get lucky here. Basically a perfectly timed best-case scenario of all of our various hometown signings in the 90's. Not only got a great season but then he took us off the hook for his age 37 and 38 seasons. And luck or not, I enjoyed the heck out of that season!
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Throwing out his rookie year and this year, Nolasco has a 95 ERA+, averaging 192 IP per season. That could be a #3, especially on durability, but not sure that's a "solid" #3. I sure don't like it as the upside for a $37 million bet on a guy coming off a 72 ERA+ and possible injury, especially when that 95 ERA+ record was compiled ages 25-30 and the coming seasons will be ages 32-34. I wish I could have your optimism, Seth. You represent the Lake Wobegon view at Twins Daily, where instead of everybody being above average, everybody "will make the adjustments."
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Okay, that makes more sense. Although I think you underrate Erickson's 1990, and both he and Tapani were rookies that year with greater potential to improve than Hughes and Gibson (both of whom already needed significant improvement just to get to their 2014 levels). What are the odds that Hughes and Gibson combine for 140 ERA+ next year? Combined they're less than 100 this year. Not that Tapani and Erickson were super-likely to do it, but they did combine for a ~120 ERA+ in 1990 as rookies. (And man, did Erickson finish 1990 on a roll: 5-0, 1.35 ERA in 6 September starts.) The other big era adjustment is you really can't compare numbers of starters like that when their innings totals differ so greatly. That '91 Big 3 was just shy of 700 combined innings. Even healthy, the 2015 Twins would probably need 4 starters to accumulate that many innings, and adding another guy makes it less likely they can cumulatively overperform their career numbers like the '91 guys.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Mainly I was just responding to your comment "I think the Rotation is about right if you add a Jack Morris-level starter". I too am not sure what a Jack Morris level guy is in 2014, but I think the rotation is a lot further away than that anyway. Interestingly, the offense might be a bit closer. No stud performers yet like the '87 and '91 teams had, but B-Ref shows a 101 OPS+ or better this year for the top PA guy at each position (although that includes Willingham). Holy cow, Vargas has 4 BB in 212 PA?
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Not to pile on about the unlikelihood of a Nolasco trade (or the unfathomable ugliness of its potential return), but all 3 players the Dodgers gave up for him last summer were waived/DFA'd within the year (some multiple times, I think). And that was Nolasco, having the second best season of his career, owed only ~$5 mil or so for the next 3 months. Oh, and the Marlins actually sent an international bonus slot to the Dodgers too.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    First, I don't think it's good to compare to the '87 team. That team was actually outscored in the regular season. Their rotation was indeed shallow, but the top two tossed 518 IP, at a combined 136 ERA+. Those innings are not possible in today's game, and that ERA+ is not really possible for any current Twins starter or even a "Jack Morris" level starter in 2015. (Not to mention that a lot of the value of a "Jack Morris" level starter is in the IP rather than ERA, and that IP value is capped a lot lower now than 20 years ago.) Even the '91 team had 3 starters combine for 694 IP and a 134 ERA+. By comparison, the only league average starter on the 2014 team is Phil Hughes, who has just barely eclipsed 200 IP at a 109 ERA+ in easily the best season of his career to date. And that's still worse than the weakest links on the '87 and '91 SP tandems mentioned above. Neither team had a deep bullpen, but there too you had the best relievers tossing 80-110 IP. The modern-day Twins pen would need to be a quality arm or two ahead of their past WS winning brethren just to compensate for lower usage.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Out of curiosity, I looked up the starting pitchers that Pinto has caught this year: Hughes Gibson Pelfrey Pelfrey Correia Pelfrey Hughes Johnson Correia Deduno Correia Deduno Deduno Deduno Correia Deduno Correia Deduno May Nolasco Darnell Nolasco Swarzak So he hasn't caught our #1 Hughes since April (nor our #2 Gibson since his first start of the season). 17 of his 23 games, he's caught Pelfrey, Deduno, Correia, Johnson, Darnell, or Swarzak... a lot of the same guys Fryer often caught too.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Any thoughts on last night's lineup? No Pinto despite playing a non-contender and Nolasco pitching. I guess Arizona has LHP scheduled for tonight and tomorrow, but if the fairly strict criteria for playing Pinto is both A) playing a non-contender, and platoon advantage, that doesn't seem like a very good-faith effort to get him playing time this month.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I admit, I didn't really see the play until now -- indeed it hit off the wall. I had visions of Eric Fryer double bouncing on the warning track earlier this year. Actually, I don't mind Herrmann either -- I've predicted he might survive the winter on the 40-man roster. And obviously him getting ABs in the OF has nothing to do with Pinto getting reps at catcher.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    This is pretty standard tough talk that actually means very little in practice. Remember "no scholarships"?
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Herrmann had one of those "flyball over a shallow outfield" doubles yesterday. The Twins radio announcers gushed over it as a sign of hitting skill, and said it was an outcome which Gardenhire predicted if only he could get Herrmann some regular ABs.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Doumit started 54 games in the outfield over 7 seasons with Pittsburgh, less than 10% of his total games there. In only 2 seasons in Pittsburgh did Doumit start more than 3 games in the OF. In the minors, Doumit is credited with only 7 games NOT at catcher. He didn't come up with that versatility, he didn't provide much if any real value from it, and from the looks of his outfield play with the Twins, it may not have been much real versatility anyway. Actually, Pinto's lack of opportunity elsewhere is another aspect of my worry here. It increasingly looks like the Twins view him as a player without a position, which isn't good for him or the team. And it feels like that judgement may be coming a little prematurely.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, it's not so much that Suzuki or Pinto is starting this particular handful of games, but the usage of Pinto strongly suggests one or more of the following: A) The Twins are under-rating their need for catching depth in 2015-2016 They will never consider Pinto much of a catcher (and thus consider him a player without a position) C) They will likely unload Pinto cheaply (or bury him at AAA before unloading him). As I have mentioned before, shades of 2010 and Wilson Ramos ("we have a commitment to Mauer, why do we need Ramos?"). And even if the fault lies in Pinto's catching ability (or lack thereof), it's bad news for the Twins going forward, to have no real depth at the position.
×
×
  • Create New...