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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    And as I've said before, you are mistaken on that. I updated my post above with an example -- Doug Bernier spent half of the 2013 season in AAA and half in MLB, yet did not use an option year. This happens regularly with players who are added to the 40-man roster and promoted to MLB simultaneously. And once on the 40-man roster, they can even be optioned to AAA for less than 20 days during the season and not use an option (like Arcia will do this year).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    You keep saying this, but I've pointed out it's false. Alex Meyer will not burn an option year in 2014 UNLESS he is sent back down to the minors for 20+ days over the remainder of 2014. This is all over the web, just google "mlb options 20 days". EDIT TO ADD: some sites aren't clear. An option year is used only if a player spends 20 days in the minors "on optional assignment". A player not on the 40-man (Meyer) is not on optional assignment while he's in the minors. Oswaldo Arcia's rehab stint earlier this year was not an optional assignment either. Those days do not count for the purposes of calculating options. For example, Doug Bernier was added to the 40-man roster and promoted to MLB midseason 2013, and spent the rest of the year in MLB. He did not use an option year, despite spending the first half of the season in AAA -- because he wasn't on optional assignment at that time, those days didn't count toward his 20.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    But why would you wait on Meyer until he is basically AT his season innings limit to give him his highest-stress innings thus far in his career? That seems rather reckless for an arm you are protecting. And for a 3.5 week courtesy to Correia? Why not a 6-man rotation in the meantime, then? Also, when was the last time the Twins DFA'd a player like Correia? Juan Rincon? Kubel's recent tenure here wasn't very long and his performance was worse (and he was arguably still limited by injuries). Marquis' Twins tenure was short and his performance disastrous, same for Bret Boone back in the day. Nick Blackburn was sent to the minors and hurt, but even he finished out his contract. I guess part of this is that the Twins had good teams recently and didn't have too many of these guys, but Lew Ford, Rondell White, Joe Mays, Rick Reed, etc. were generally allowed to play out the string as health allowed. A healthy veteran who has been with the team almost two seasons and simply has a below-average but not disastrous recent performance record? If no one else wants him, I think he plays out the string here.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Given the circumstances surrounding his exits from San Diego and Pittsburgh (being moved to the bullpen, against his will, late in his tenure both places), it appears the Twins promised Correia a starting spot. And absent another team that wants him to start, or an extended disaster-level performance, I think he's guaranteed to finish out his contract here as a starting pitcher.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Are we sure Pino isn't just a regular member of the rotation now? They haven't really yo-yo'd him since June (except letting him get one AAA tune-up start over the all-star break), and he's pitched 3 straight 6+ inning starts with fair results (and good peripherals). Swarzak and Deduno have not pitched much lately, if one or the other isn't needed today, I suspect they could get another spot start Saturday?
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I actually don't mind the kid gloves, to some degree. Shut them down when there's a problem, limit their pitch counts and innings when they come back, sure. But missing two months of one season shouldn't automatically preclude an MLB trial late the following season, which seems to be the case here.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Delmon Young trade did not look good on paper. Young had a significant sample of MLB PA at that point (and also his AAA PA) which had exposed some vital and not-easily-corrected flaws. Santana trade looked better, but not good. Gomez at least was still more a prospect than a suspect like Young, but Gomez was really the only prospect of value in that trade. Humber? Mulvey? Seriously? It's like Bill Smith said, "I'm trading Garza and Santana, I need some near MLB starting pitchers back" but didn't care whether the pitchers were actually good or not. Would have been better off holding out for a better deal or just taking the draft picks. I'd rather have had a GM who wasn't afraid to let Santana walk, or let Hunter walk without simultaneously overpaying for an alleged "RH power bat" replacement. Bill Smith acted scared as GM (Capps deal is another obvious example of this).
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't see the point in delaying his MLB debut to the point where he's virtually at his season innings limit, and changing his role and routine at the same time too. Why not shut him down Sep. 1st? They did it with Gibson last year, albeit after sending him back down to AAA in late August. The 25 man roster spot means nothing after Sep. 1st, and the extra ~28 days MLB service time means nothing if Meyer can win a MLB rotation spot next spring (or even a MLB bullpen spot in preparation for a MLB rotation spot), which has to be the hoped-for outcome here, right?
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    AAA pitches per inning, 2014 Darnell: 16.5 Meyer: 16.4 Johnson: 16.2 May: 15.6 Pino: 15.4 And sample size is not benefitting Meyer here, as he has the largest sample of 2014 AAA IP of this group. Last 7 starts, since late June, Meyer is at 15.2 pitches per inning too. So by that measure, his "command" is improving. (And in regards to that sample size, Pino only has 8 AAA starts this year.) But sure, yeah, Meyer would tax the bullpen too much, which might threaten to throw the 2014 Twins season off the rails! Much better to let him go into spring training 2015 having never faced a major league lineup.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Which goes almost completely against the "protect his shoulder" reasoning that Nick outlined. By the time the Rochester season is complete, Meyer will be at or near his season innings limit. And it's at that point you think it would be a "great" idea to push him for more innings, at more effort (due to higher level of competition), in a different role than his entire professional career to date? Why not do it now (or late June, like we did for Gibson, or late July, like many here assured would happen)? Because we promised a rotation spot to Kevin Correia? Because we don't want to do a 6-man rotation? Because the next 30 MLB IP are urgently critical to our evaluation of Pino?
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Meyer missed "more than a third" of the 2013 season only if you don't count the AFL. If you take his IP/GS when he went down with his injury, and multiply that by a full AA season of 27 starts, you get 149.2 IP. His combined 2013 IP of 104.1 is over two-thirds of that. Also, Deduno and Swarzak have pitched about 3 innings each the last 10 games. We have 19 healthy pitchers on the 40-man roster that we can freely shuttle between Rochester and Minnesota (and we're 3.5 weeks away from potentially having them all in Minnesota). We have at least two position players on the 40-man (Florimon and Schafer) who are almost certain DFAs after the season too, if we want to add more pitchers (Guerra, Gilmartin, Oliveros). I do not see "taxing the 2014 Twins bullpen" as a valid excuse for holding Meyer back at this point. What would you rather have, going into the offseason and spring training 2015: Meyer pitching ~30-40 more innings at a level he's already more or less dominated for 112 IP, or Meyer with even just his first 20-30 MLB IP already under his belt? Different player and situation, obviously, but imagine if the Twins had been able to call up Aaron Hicks for the last month or two of 2012 and how that could have benefitted our offseason decision making and the 2013 opening roster! Not to mention how much it could benefit the player, to acclimate to the big leagues in a "lost" season and have a whole offseason to re-calibrate for MLB level competition.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    It's like a 115-135 OPS+ range in 2014. Was more like 105-125 back in 2010. Fangraphs says that OPS range would rank 14-25 among qualified OF (including CF) so far in 2014.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Librarian? Should we be organizing the forums by the Dewey Decimal System? (Or perhaps the Dwight Evans Decimal System?)
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Way too early to care about Diamond. Dude has a 3.3 K/9 for his new AAA team. Liriano may always be somewhat inconsistent, but he's probably a bit of a demerit on the Twins coaches. Worley is looking like a mild demerit too, especially since they basically had a free year to work with him in the minors in 2014 once he cleared waivers.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't know if he was ducking them, as much as playing them smart. No reason to trade Hunter when he's affordable, you're in contention, and you can net two draft picks for him (#27 and #31 overall in 2008). Smith should have done the same with Santana and Nathan in 2008. Instead, he forced a trade of Santana and extended Nathan for $14 mil per year. Probably should have extended Mauer earlier, although it takes two to tango, not all players want to sell their FA years at a discount, years in advance (although TR and the Twins did appear to be behind in this trend).
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I hear you. But, by starter ERA, they were generally a bad outlier the past two years. Now they're just more normal bad. Mild progress to be sure, but some progress (which couldn't be said of the team in 2011, 2012, or 2013). By starter ERA- (lower is better, adjusted for park and league) and MLB rank: 2014: 127 (30th rank) 2013: 132 (30th) 2012: 132 (30th) 2011: 114 (24th) 2010: 101 (16th) Okay, that doesn't look good either. But we're almost to 2011 levels by FIP- and xFIP-, though! (Do we believe in FIP and xFIP? ) They were generally between 90 and 100 (above average) in ERA-, FIP-, and xFIP- for the period 2001-2010.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Are these Meyer/May threads getting moved from the Twins forum to the Minors forum? That totally makes sense from a organization and administration perspective... but it feels a little like an authoritarian government trying to suppress an uprising. If they're not up soon, I could see the Twins asking Google to start filtering search results in the upper midwest.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Span has picked it up lately -- don't know if I'd say "crushing it" as his isolated power is at his career mark. But his average is up (and by extension his OBP), and his steals -- he's turning in a similar/better offensive season than 2012 which netted Meyer in return. He should easily be worth 1 year, $9 mil to a contender like Washington.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    You mean the walk rate that's ~2 percentage points higher than Darnell, May, and Johnson? And ~3 percentage points higher than Pino? I've mentioned this to Seth a few times -- if Meyer's walk rate was any better, he might be a top 5 prospect in all of MLB. (Don't get me wrong, that would be awesome, but it's a pretty high bar for promotion, and not at all evidence he would get "eaten alive" if he's less than that.)
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. Hughes and Gibson look like they should be legit average (or slightly better) MLB starters, which has mostly been lacking here for a few years. Would be even nicer if a few reinforcements were here already, though, positioning themselves to start strong in 2015.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Only if the fans claimed the guy wouldn't struggle, and I don't think many fans here have made such claims. I wouldn't be surprised to see Meyer or May struggle like Gibson did in 2013 -- but hopefully they would also then have a clear path to winning a rotation spot next spring and being ready to contribute (if only as a league-average starter) from day 1 of next season, like Gibson too.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I know. But he still had less than 3 years service time back then (meaning he could be outrighted once without his consent if he passed through waivers). I am guessing that had his former drafting team not claimed him in Nov. 2012 (and at least 12 other NL teams passed on him), he may have entered the Alex Burnett / Liam Hendriks waiver vortex, where a few teams exchange claims on him and soon after try to pass him through waivers again so they can remove him from the roster but outright him to AAA. My point has been that he's in an even worse spot now (from a team's perspective): not only is he without options, he can reject any outright assignment and become a free agent (not to mention he's 2 years older and no better on the field). Teams hate to lock in guys like that to the 40-man roster if they don't have to, particularly if they are also arb-eligible. Scott Diamond was in a similar spot this past winter but at least he was still pre-arb. Emilio Bonifacio is a far more useful/valuable player and even he cleared waivers and signed a minor league deal last winter. I'll drop it now, but suffice to say, barring a strong finish to 2014, I doubt Schafer gets claimed this winter.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    That's not really a fair criteria -- I think Meyer gave up the fewest H/9 of anyone on this list (well, except Hu again). If his walk rate was any better, he'd be a top-5 prospect in all of MLB. I don't think it's fair to make that the threshold for being a top 5 Twins minor league starter for the month of July.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I think perhaps there are too many rookie league guys on this list -- there is just so much variability in performance in those leagues, a dominating 5 start stretch, while it looks cool statistically, just isn't that impressive in context. They are borderline instructional leagues. Outside of Hu, Alex Meyer basically equaled or surpassed everyone else on this list in terms of opponents OPS against, run prevention, and K rate, at a much higher level (as many as 4 leagues higher, at the very top level of minor league baseball). And heck, Tyler Duffey is less than a year younger than Meyer; Mat Batts is only 18 months younger than Meyer too.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    No reason to bring up .850 OPS yet. Heck, no reason to really bring up Santana's OPS of .793 from 2 games ago. A .717 OPS is average right now in the AL. An average overall player in LF is still worth about 2 WAR. With a few added runs on the bases, Santana could be a 2.5 WAR guy in LF with just average offense/defense. An extended spike to .760 OPS (110 OPS+) like Dozier's 2014, or some improvement on defense, and he should clear 3 WAR easy, even in LF. Of course, that same average defense/offense would make him a 3.5 WAR shortstop, with any kind of extra offense or defense pushing him up around 4.5 and borderline all-star territory. By comparison, Escobar might only be a 2-2.5 WAR shortstop in this, what might be his "peak", year.
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