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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree, although I will add, there wouldn't necessarily have to be any conversation for this to be true. TR, as much as he is known as "Trader Terry", is not terribly likely to deal anyone at any given time. Virtually all of his deals in the last 15 years have been some combination of expiring contracts, clearing room for younger players, addressing MLB weaknesses, or just marginal/spare parts for minor leaguers. Pretty much nothing comparable to Perkins or Dozier since perhaps the Knoblauch deal. Probably explains Perkins' weak no-trade protection -- it was probably largely unnecessary, like buying extra insurance when you rent a car, and not worth surrendering any salary for it.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I quit trying to rationalize about a month ago why Meyer and May have yet to appear in MLB. Any individual game/situation can be explained somehow, but there have been so many such opportunities, there is no other conclusion to draw other than they don't want to promote them yet.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    So you'd just cut Correia on July 31, if there is no offer better than some other team's fringe 40-man castoff? EDIT: I guess if they are willing to pick up Correia's salary, you could get the fringe 40-man guy and just run him through waivers right away. (I suspect between the roster spot, the salary, and the marginal performance record, any scenario where we don't pay Correia's last 2 months salary is somewhat unlikely.) If no one is willing to eat the salary... do you cut him then?
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I will suggest most trades are not based on one month ERA samples. If you can find a comparable to Correia who has been a deadline deal in the past, I will gladly listen.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't forget masking insults behind sneezes. I think Pinto is working on that one in Rochester, but Venezuelan sneezes are a bit more unintelligible by nature, so it's a long process.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    You can't say that an ineffective no-trade protection was a team-friendly concession that suggests you owe it to the player not to trade him... that's a bit of a contradiction in terms! Interesting that you brought up his age. His recent 2/14 extension was not only signed 3 years in advance, but also effectively covers his age-34 and age-35 seasons, which makes it somewhat less likely (although far from impossible) that he was going to command significantly more money if he had waited for free agency. If his conversion to relief had happened a few years earlier, enabling him to test the market at a younger age, it's quite likely he doesn't sign such a "team-friendly" extension. He also signed the deal coming off a career best season at age 30. The fact that he has improved since makes it a better deal for the team, but I think it is coloring our perception of how team-friendly it was at the time. (And mind you, I think it was team-friendly, just not to the extent that it should influence a decision whether to trade him above and beyond the contract terms and his on-field performance.)
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think anyone would characterize those offers as "far apart". Suzuki's only free agent deal is his current minor one; he didn't even get the decent FA option year salary from his previous contract, as it was declined. He will never be in a better position that he is now (or will be this winter), so I am guessing he's looking for a Saltalamacchia type deal (3/21) until/unless the open market tells him otherwise.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not really about rushing them. It's just another indicator of the quality of the players themselves, and our confidence in projecting their futures. The Twins may have a better farm system than the Angels, but it sure would be nice to have a Trout, or at least a Skaggs on the big league club right now. Put another way: a top farm system, particularly in the lower minors, can easily be a worse organization with a lower future projection than a team with a worse farm system, but more recent MLB graduates. That's why I too like the "25 and under" rankings better than farm system ones. Also, correct me if I am wrong, but our MLB promotion discussion has mostly been about Meyer and May, who are both 24 and will be 25 before next spring. And their ceilings are hopefully better than "5/6 starter, maybe reliever".
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Pino has been more or less permanent for the last month, and could still be permanent going forward (no idea who they are going to send out for Darnell). (I suppose if Danny Santana didn't get hurt back in June, Johnson or Darnell could have alternated with him before Nolasco's injury too.) Probably not worth it for the bench bats we've been keeping. I didn't even notice Chris Herrmann was on the team for awhile there. Who else was on the 25-man during this time? Florimon? Polanco, briefly? Colabello? Our starting 9 position players are pretty weak as it is; if a guy is #5 or lower on our bench depth chart, he's probably not that good of a player.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    If someone else is willing to eat his remaining salary, I'd probably give him away like we did with Jamey Carroll last year. Given Correia's history, though, even that might be tough sell -- guys who are barely worth rotation/roster spots on a bad team are rarely seen as worthy or a rotation/roster spot on a contending team. We already have one permanent open rotation spot (the Pino spot), or two if Nolasco is sidelined for awhile yet (or if Gibson misses more than 1 start, I suppose). And Florimon is still on the 40-man roster and out of options next spring, so there is your 40-man roster opening. Correia isn't blocking anyone at the moment.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Well stated. That's why you're the boss! To trade Perkins, I'd probably want something like the Huston Street package PLUS our legendary Capps package (Ramos). That's a solid top 100 guy, another borderline top 100 guy, both from the upper minors and at up-the-middle positions, plus a couple good, young performers from the lower levels. Don't think that's been exchanged for any closers recently, so I certainly won't blame the Twins for not soliciting deals on him at this point.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I am not an expert on fWAR (or anything for that matter), but it does not appear that saves are any kind of factor in its calculation. From the link you provide, covering 2012-2014, Sean Dolittle and Jake McGee equal or exceed Perkins' fWAR total but neither accumulated any saves until very recently. Dellin Betances and Wade Davis each beat Perkins in fWAR this year, with a combined 1 save between them.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I know we're arguing in circles on this one, but... by definition, he couldn't have done ANY deal at that time with anyone but his hometown team. For his most recent deal/extension, he was 3 years away from FA, and it guaranteed another 2 years and $14.375 mil. He wasn't even at a table on which he could leave any money, much less $20 mil. I guess he passed up the chance to wait 3 years, for a chance at maybe $8 mil more if we say he could have gotten $11 mil AAV for those 2 added years. Given the uncertainties of the intervening 3 years, that's worth quite a bit less than $8 million. I don't doubt his motivations were very much influenced by his local ties, but I feel you are exaggerating the "team-friendliness" of his contract. It probably does not give rise to any moral imperatives against trading him.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. If I am a GM, I would pretty much never hesitate to trade a closer, at least not for the reasons commonly stated in this thread. Especially if my scouts and coaches have been exceptionally good at replacing them for ~15 years. If I am a contender, my asking price would be a little higher and I'd prefer to have a ready replacement; otherwise, I wouldn't worry about having an immediate successor. Perkins would still probably stay on my club right now, but only because I wouldn't actively shop him and I don't expect anyone to meet my reasonably high asking price (something above the recent Huston Street return).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    If Willingham was a decent 3B, he'd probably be traded already. Actually, he wouldn't have signed with us for 3/21 coming off a 121 OPS+ season in the first place!
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I know why Perkins' $2 mil was spread over 6 years -- I was just trying to illustrate he had essentially made the league minimum prior to that point. He had a huge immediate financial incentive to sign for $10 million guaranteed at the time, home town team or no. I also dispute the notion that Perkins is "elite". He's ranked 8 or 9 by fWAR which is very good, but his performance has been closer to relacement or average than the very best. In 2013, Perkin's fWAR (1.7) was roughly as close to leader Koji Uehara (3.3) as it was 118th ranked Josh Roenicke (-0.1), or as close to #3 ranked Nathan (2.5) as #50 ranked Jared Burton (0.9). And even if you do consider that elite, relief pitching limits the potential value of an "elite" player more than any other position. (I will say, Perkins has seemingly stepped up his game in 2014, in terms of fWAR if not yet in rank, although even if this improvement holds, it came AFTER his signed his most recent long-term deal.) And I certainly don't doubt that his local home made these decisions easier for Perkins, and pretty much prompted him to seek his most recent deal, but it's not as if he ever had more money on the table, or even the prospect of more money on the table in the very near future. He was 2-3 years away just from the chance at more money both times; avoiding the risk of becoming another Gregg Olson (injured/collapsed before full FA) was probably very significant to Perkins.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    That's true, but that doesn't say anything about his utility on this team or the likely 2015+ teams. Also, the Twins, as well as the majority of teams in MLB, do not use the FA market to get their closers. Additionally, at least 3 of the guys on your list (Benoit, Wilson, and Broxton) weren't signed as closers. Also Soriano is only making $11 mil this year, with a $14 mil team option for next year. And while these contracts have higher AAV than Perkins', they all have essentially equal or less guaranteed money as Perkins. (Perkins' deal is certainly better as it covers more years, but the team's financial risk in case of a career ending injury is pretty much the same as these other guys, which offsets some of the AAV advantage.)
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure "home town discount" or "took less money to stay here" are the best descriptors for Perkins' contracts. His career MLB earnings were about $2 mil total, spread over 6 years, at the time he signed his first long-term deal, and he was 2 full seasons away from being eligible for free agency. I suspect his decision to sign for a $10 million guarantee at that point had a lot more to do with his own financial security than any favor to the Twins (although his local home certainly made the decision easier for him). Then he signed his second long-term deal when he was 3 years away from free agency, and increased his guaranteed future income by nearly $15 million. Either time, I suspect Perkins could have reduced his guaranteed salary for greater no-trade protections. Again, the hometown influence is evident, but Perkins had a major financial incentive to sign that deal. I don't think he's going anywhere, and I wouldn't solicit offers for him, but for the right offer I would certainly consider it (although I doubt such an offer will be made, given his non-elite standing and the lower value applied to relief pitchers or any trade targets in present-day MLB).
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, my post and your post I was responding to, that Perkins was a top 5 closer, made no mention of salary.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Garza was a 25th overall pick. He's produced 1300+ innings at 107 ERA+, with 14.8 rWAR and 20 fWAR, all by age 30. I think your estimation of his talent and/or expectations for his performance do not match reality!
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Past Twins winners of the same award http://mlbpaa.mlb.com/mlbpaa/news/heartandhustle.jsp 2013: Ryan Doumit 2012: Jamey Carroll 2011: Michael Cuddyer 2010: Nick Punto 2009: Joe Mauer 2008: Mike Redmond 2007: Torii Hunter Outside of Mauer, every one of these guys has been off the team within a year of receiving the award... Also, a quick scan of those lists suggests the primary criteria for the awards might be service time, defensive position (up the middle preferred), and birthplace.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, it should be noted that 2014 so far is the first season where Perkins has been significantly closer to the best reliever fWAR than to replacement level (0 fWAR). He's generally been closer to Huston Street level than the elite/dominant relievers.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Perkins ranks 8th in fWAR among relievers from 2011-2014 (although the selective endpoints problem rears its ugly head, as Doolittle and Rivera rank just behind Perkins and both missed time due to a late debut and retirement, respectively). 2012-2014, Perkins ranks #9, just behind Fernando Rodney (a free agent who has made $11.25 million over those 3 years), and in a virtual tie with 10th and 11th ranked Jake McGee and Joe Nathan. 2013-2014, Perkins ranks #8 again, this time just behind Mark Melancon. 2014 alone, Perkins is back to ranking #9, with Betances topping the list, and with comeback kid Soria and starter conversion Wade Davis ahead of him. (And reclamation projects Andrew Miller and Pat Neshek just behind.) Perkins' individual season reliever fWAR ranks 2014: 9 2013: 12 2012 : 33 2011: 9
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Another view of the Huston Street package with preseason Sickels ranks: 1. 2B, #1 Angels prospect, only top 150-175 overall, grade B 2. RP, #7 Angels prospect, grade C+ 3. SS, #8 Angels prospect, grade C+ 4. SP, probably grade C Twins preseason position/rank rough equivalents: 1. Eddie Rosario 2. Zach Jones (pre-injury) 3. Niko Goodrum 4. ???
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure if that is true. Dellin Betances isn't a closer, but he's one of the top relievers in baseball right now. I'm not opposed to giving guys *some* bonus for being in a closers role, but it would be more like a tiebreaker (or a demerit if they previously failed in a closers role).
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