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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, Morales is making the same money as Morneau last year, and we all witnessed the struggle that went down to the wire in late August to get Pittsburgh to take his salary on in exchange for two likely 40-man roster cuts. And Morneau was probably a more useful/productive player at that time than most of the Twins current trade assets (sans Suzuki and maybe Fien).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Careful with using select trades as a benchmark for others, especially trades that seem very favorable to one team even at the time (i.e. Doumit and Beltran). Such deals are always possible, sure, but not necessarily probable at any given time due to all sorts of circumstances. (Otherwise, some GM could just keeping flipping Drew Butera clones all the time!) - Beltran was raking with a 151 OPS+ at the time of his trade, and had been healthy all season. - Victorino was not raking, but he was a healthy 31 year old CF, and it was the crazy Dodgers trade frenzy year (plus they didn't give up that much -- of the 3 players, one is out of baseball now, another was flipped for Michael Young, and "#80 prospect" you mention was one of those wild 6+ BB/9 guys who was only ranked #80 by MLB.com -- no other service ranked him in the top 100, and none had done so the previous 2-3 winters either). - Doumit... well that one is a head-scratcher. I have no idea what the Braves were thinking there, especially given how they've deployed Doumit this season. Willingham is older than even Beltran was at the time of his trade, has missed ~40 games this year, ~40 games last year, plus is playing pretty badly during that stretch (.209 BA for 2013-2014, 102 OPS+ with negative defensive value). The Twins might be lucky to get someone else to take his salary at this point.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting list, but for most of these guys, I think we might have to accept cast-offs more than any kind prospect (think Hernandez & Escobar, Presley & Welker). IF we can get anything at all. Suzuki and Fien seem the best bets to actually have an interested partner. FYI, Suzuki was traded in 2012 for the Nationals 27th ranked prospect by BA (two years prior a 15th round college catcher draftee). Some cash considerations were sent with Suzuki too -- he was making $5 mil that season, and was due $6.5 million the next year and had a team option for 2014. In 2013, with an expiring contract, Suzuki netted a player not ranked on Oakland's top 30 by BA (a college pitcher who was their previous year's 9th round draft pick). Both times, Suzuki was traded in August so he presumably passed waivers, due to his salary plus poor performances.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    It should be noted that the MLB pension "retirement age" is not when the player retires from baseball, but more of a traditional workforce retirement age (62, I believe). So they generally don't get the $34k/month (minimum) until then. Still, the value of this (plus the lifetime healthcare) probably dwarfs anything most of these guys earned before hitting the MLB roster!
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    But WAR isn't really a counting stat -- you can (and many Twins regularly do ) get negative WAR. Danny Santana is at +4.7 offensive runs now, but if his next 140 PA are like Escobar's last 140 PA, that will probably drop precipitously (Escobar is down to -3.5 offensive runs right now). And defensive WAR is even worse, I think, for small samples. dWAR leaderboards are littered with part-time players and even pitchers.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup! Either one day in MLB... or just move to Canada.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    You may actually have to eat salary too. Don't know if it's worth it for the hitters, they don't seem to be blocking anyone too important. I could see Correia, Burton, and Guerrier doing some blocking, but they'd probably be the toughest to give away too (even free, their value to a contender is minimal). Don't know if I would go so far as to release any of them...
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Care to name the last closer to fetch a top 25 prospect? Or the last Dozier comparable to do so? Not to mention the last Suzuki comparable to fetch a top 100 guy?
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Obviously one would have to evaluate first-hand, but Bundy was still ranked 15-20 on top 100 prospect lists this year, even after missing the previous year to injury. He was of course #2 or #4 and already debuted in MLB at age 19 (albeit rushed) before the injury -- I don't think the Twins have that kind of front of the rotation pitching talent! Very few teams ever do. Not quite sure what "cornerstone guy" is, but Dozier has been a ~4.5 fWAR player from June 2013 until today. That's pretty good, but how projectable is it? His complete history suggests he is more likely a ~4.5 WAR peak, maybe ~3 WAR prime average player (Uggla, Stephen Drew, Kipnis?), rather than a ~4.5 WAR prime average player (Kinsler, Brian Roberts). I think of the latter more as "cornerstones", guys capable of making an occasional run at Cano, peak Utley/Pedroia, etc. as the best at the position, and maybe even commanding elite prospects as trade returns under the right circumstances. I have to think the Orioles would laugh at such a proposal (Bundy for Dozier), not as loudly as the Bud Norris offer, but still, it probably suggest the deal could be pretty good for the Twins.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Looking at Fangraphs, ranking CF by dWAR, half the top 30 are half-time player (or less). Not sure how much of that is good defenders being bench players, or just the vagaries of small sample size.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I'll take that from our fill-in CF, should-be 4th OF. If Fuld keeps it up, and Escobar keeps going down, I think Santana may be the full-time SS upon his return.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    You are correct on all counts. As a AAA veteran, Pino was probably making more than most AAA guys, and he will see another bump from being on the 40-man roster. But he will only be paid the prorated MLB minimum salary for the days he is on the MLB roster. After just one day on the MLB roster, Pino qualified for lifetime healthcare. And with another 21 days or so, he should get a ~$34,000 annual pension. So I'd say it's been a pretty good year so far for ol' Yohan!
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed, but outside of Suzuki, our other trade chips may be lucky to net a C level prospect. That's basically what we got for Morneau (although in the form of 2 marginal 40-man guys), and it took until the end of August with the Pittsburgh GM twisting the owner's arm to add $2 mil salary. Morales is basically due the same money as Morneau last year ($2 mil per month), and Willingham and Correia are both due around $1 million per month. Other teams have expiring contract vets too; there are simply more sellers than buyers. I feel like Suzuki is our one great trade hope, at this point. Good season, key position, low salary.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't look now, but Escobar's down to an 87 OPS+, with a sub-.300 OBP. And Danny Santana's line? Virtually identical to that of Escobar on June 1st, right down to the K/BB rates. Our next closest infield prospect is struggling in AA. OK, I think I've convinced myself not to trade Dozier.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    At worst, we should win 13 of 19 games? Love your optimism, but man. And at 52-55, that winning percentage would still likely leave us 4th place in the division, 10 games behind Detroit, and 5 games (and 5 teams) behind the 2nd wild card. All of this at the conclusion of, by far, our best stretch of baseball for the season. I just can't see any way we're not sellers.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Generally loved the in-season trades by Bill Smith, up until Capps, of course. Loved the aggressiveness in dealing marginal AAA guys or longer-shot low minors guys. (We should have kept Smith away from top prospects or guys on the MLB roster, though!)
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know -- even with the options, that's a 40-man roster spot for a 30+ year old AAA/depth guy. Looking at the list of prospects that need to be protected from Rule 5 this offseason, I'm not sure Pino should make that cut unless he can offer more than that. He has been purchased or released by various organizations each of the last 4 seasons.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't mind taking flyers either, I actually enjoy seeing new guys and debuts even for non-prospects. But when there are prospects available and performing well in the high minors, I'd rather they get the first shot. (Notice I am not complaining about the position player promotions -- no prospects in sight there!) Diamond in 2012 didn't come up ahead of a better prospect (plus he was only 25). Neither did Albers or Walters (2012, anyway). But by June 2014, going into the offseason and 2015: +5 starts for Meyer/May >>>> +5 starts for Pino Hopefully VodkaDave is right and both will be up shortly, but I'm not quite seeing the point of the Pino interlude.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Normally, I'd be right there with you. A player with Dozier's current numbers, position, and contract status is a clear keeper. But that streakiness and power reliance is what has me worried a little. If his HR and BB drop just a hair further (not unlikely given the nature of his power and the recent addition of bonus walks in conjunction with said power), he's basically Trevor Plouffe at the plate this year, high-90's OPS+. That kind of player can be useful, particularly cheap and up the middle, but his trade value would decrease quite a bit. That said, it's only really an important distinction if somebody was willing to pay for him now like he was a true-talent 120 OPS+ 2B ("blown away with an offer"), and that is probably unlikely given the facts above.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    What's a top-10 2B worth? Dozier ranks 7th in 2B fWAR this year, behind Altuve, Murphy, and Dee Gordon, tied with Zobrist, and roughly just a half-win ahead of Scooter Gennett. Last year, Dozier ranked 8th in 2B fWAR, just behind Murphy again and just ahead of Neil Walker and Marco Scutaro. (If you throw out his first two months and prorate the rest of his 2013 season, he'd probably jump to fifth or sixth, right around Kipnis.) Seems like top-10 is a lot less meaningful than top-5, and Dozier seems at best on the fringes of that distinction, with no record of (or likelihood of?) spikes up to 1 or 2 occasionally. Definitely good and useful, especially while cheap, but not elite and possibly worth surrendering for an elite prospect, or a combination of very good prospects.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I like Dozier, and I think there is almost a zero percent chance they trade him because they like him too... but could this be selling high? Should we be a little less picky about what return we demand? If he's a true 108 OPS+ hitter like he has been this year, that's solid up the middle. But a lot of that OPS+ is based on a handful of line-drive HR (and extra walks) in his age-26 and age-27 seasons. Would it be all that surprising to see him level off closer to his overall 2013 OPS+ of 98? We were all tantalized by the changes he made with Bruno and his last 4 months in 2013 as a ~120 OPS+ hitter, but given his profile and his recent cooling off, maybe his overall numbers from last season are more instructive going forward, given his modest background and streaky tendencies. A 98 OPS+ player with solid defense up the middle, at pre-arb (2015) and arb (2016-2018) salaries, is certainly valuable. But it probably isn't worth an elite prospect, right? That offensive profile isn't that different than Trevor Plouffe. (And not to compare them, but I remember another modest prospect 26-27 year old Twin who had a line-drive HR binge: Lew Ford. 118 OPS+ through age 27, still 105 OPS+ through a tougher age-28 season, then collapse. Not saying Dozier will do that, but the age, prospect status, and curious power tendencies are similar.)
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. And we have Pinto in the wings, who may not be ready to be the 2015 primary starter yet, but he's worth a greater investment of playing time. It's not like we'd be starting Fryer or Herrmann in Sukuzi's place. Plus, none of our other popular trade chips are doing anything. Correia's got the same 84 ERA+ he posted the previous 6 seasons, Willingham is quickly falling back to his 2013 "he might be cooked" levels, Morales has done nothing for the Twins so far, and the bullpen has been "meh" outside of Perkins and maybe Fien (peripherals if not performance too). Not saying Suzuki will get a great prospect, but by virtue of steady performance and modest contract this year, he should net something better than he has the past two summers (when he was dealt as an expensive backup). And he might be the only one of these Twins trade chips to fetch anything right now.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I'll echo the sentiments of gil and Brock above. Outside of that debut, Pino's starts have been acceptable but that's about it. And I think he is starting to highlight why he was not the best candidate for promotion: even when he's generating acceptable results in the short term, these performances are telling us virtually nothing going forward. Given his age and track record, there's almost no way we can count on him as a starter in 2015. At best he seems to be auditioning to stay on the 40-man roster this winter as a bullpen option or AAA depth, but it seems a little excessive to use a permanent rotation spot for such an audition now with actual potential 2015 rotation candidates waiting in the wings at AAA. Let Pino spot start (like Johnson?) or get innings out of the pen instead. This reminds me a lot of Albers' decent run at the end of 2013, or PJ Walters solid start in 2012 -- acceptable results, but no bearing on the Twins future. At least in those two cases, the Twins were mostly bereft of other starting options at the time.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    B-Ref doesn't have cumulative stats for each game in their minor league game logs, but you can see splits and sum any selection of rows here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=walker002ada&type=bgl&year=2014 Best I can tell, he was last below .200 on April 25. Since then, he's got an OPS of .762, compared to his overall season OPS of .723. Although it's not all straight upward either: his June OPS was actually just as bad as his pre-Mendoza OPS, right around .600, with equally bad K/BB rates too. His league OPS is only .686, compared to AL OPS of .716 this season. Assuming a neutral ballpark in his league, he'd have a SLG-heavy OPS+ of 105, or 111 post-Medoza.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know about that. Around the time of Hunter and Santana, it actually was quite likely a better move to keep the player as long as you were a contending team in a winnable division, then sit back and collect the draft pick(s) when they left. (The Twins just didn't draft particularly well for a stretch there.) The Twins actually botched the Santana situation a bit by not doing just that, perhaps just as much as passing on the rumored Lester or Ellsbury offers. The Twins got 2 draft picks for Hunter, 2 for Cuddyer (and one of them became Berrios), plus picks for Kubel, Crain, Orlando Hudson (!), and Dennys Reyes (!!). Now draft pick comp isn't much of an issue, but that means those expiring contract players aren't worth as much to the receiving team either. Used to be a team could net a draft pick from picking up Dennys Reyes at the deadline, not so anymore.
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