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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I mostly agree -- his K's are up over some dreadful lows last year, but still not near his Philly numbers. And it doesn't really take an unqualified "rebound success story" to make this look bad for the Twins. They gave up on this guy early, not for a roster spot, not for salary savings... why? And, has it been worth it? Has Virgil Vasquez been a indispensable mentor to our AA pitchers?
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    It's worse than that -- Worley was already off the 40-man roster, having cleared waivers and been outrighted to AAA. As jorgen mentioned upthread, when the Twins sold him, the debate was more like Worley vs. Virgil Vasquez.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    First, was he ever really demoted to the bullpen? I know that was a likely destination this year, but he never made a relief appearance with the Twins or at Rochester. Second, why would a trade for nothing motivate him more than clearing waivers for nothing? That was the weird part for the Twins -- they had the guy off the 40-man but under their cheap control for the full 2014 season (and beyond if they wanted to add him back to the roster)... and they chose to sell him? It would be like if they sold Parmelee this spring after he cleared waivers -- while the player in question is unlikely to be a star, there's just no real point in such a move for the 2014 Twins.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty sure TR and the boys can just shrug Worley off as another "incompatible personality." How long did this organization ride Dick Such? Pretty much until he and TK were ready to retire, right?
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Even with the correct stats, I think your point still has some validity. His recent OPS spike is almost entirely AVG-driven (and specifically BABIP, it was .818 for a week there!). I was even skeptical of Mauer's hot streak for those reasons, and he's got a much better history as an AVG hitter than Parm. Even if there's some real improvement here, without some extra OBP or SLG, it's more like improving from ~85 OPS+ to 100 OPS+. If one isn't bringing positional or defensive value to the table, that still clearly profiles as a bench bat (although a bench bat would be a lot better than a AAAA bat!).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Suzuki isn't going anywhere -- the Twins clearly don't think Pinto is ready to be a full-time MLB catcher (if he ever will be). And I think Correia is staying too -- his value is always pretty low and there's already another open rotation spot for AAA starter auditions (currently occupied by Pino). I think Willingham and Morales are about it for realistic trade candidates, and even then, they seem to value Hammer pretty highly, and Morales might not generate much interest unless his bat heats up. The Twins have historically been very comfortable keeping guys and letting them leave as free agents, although most of that was before the new FA compensation rules. Still, I don't expect them to make any major moves.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Yankees, no question. White Sox is a "fun" hate, like an annoying cousin you like to compete with at a family picnic. (Same for our Central Division rival du jour.) Yankees are like an invading army. Even when we win, it feels like we lost something, just by fighting the war.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    My prediction: in another month, Chris Parmelee will be batting first and playing third.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd take it even further: Santana should be the primary CF when he returns (and Parm can take more reps there in the meantime). What's the point of playing Fuld? He does nothing for the present or the future. He has no business on a MLB team except as a replacement 4th OF (he's not even a particularly good CF). He's guaranteed to be off the 40-man roster by October if not sooner, and he will certainly be available on minor league deal in the offseason. We will need a non-Buxton CF better than Fuld for most of 2015, so might as well see if Santana can do it. And we for sure will need a SS in 2015+, so maximizing ABs for Santana and Escobar (and Nunez as #1 utility man) should be a priority.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, we seem to take good luck for granted a bit. Hughes is still outperforming his career starter ERA+ by 22 points. Gibson's been good. The luck is definitely a bit thinner on the offensive side of the equation, but some of that screams front office misjudgment more than bad luck (Florimon, Hicks, Kubel), and there is still Suzuki, Santana, and Escobar all out-performing reasonable projections thus far. We still probably lean to the unlucky side of the fence, though, particularly with the Buxton/Sano injuries, and definitely if you think Mauer's current struggles stem from his concussion. (Add Morneau's concussion and we seem even more unlucky from a historical perspective, although by the same token we led a pretty charmed life from 2001-2010.)
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, I am not sure Mauer really had it going yet. He had similar streaks earlier this year too that didn't last, and they all seemed to feature too many Ks and not enough BBs and power to be classic, sustainable Mauer. Not that I wanted to see him out of the lineup now, though!
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Just reviewing the notable trade deadline deals at MLB.com... 2013: Alfonso Soriano netted the Yankees 25th ranked prospect last year (who went on to be ranked #15 for the Cubs after the season). The Cubs also dealt Scott Hairston for the Nationals' 27th ranked prospect (who then ranked #21 for the Cubs). 2012: Carlos Lee got the Marlins #4 ranked prospect (Matt Dominguez, current Astros starting 3B) Jim Thome was traded for the Orioles #18 and #21 ranked prospects Ichiro got the Yankees #16 prospect plus another guy 2011: Derrek Lee got the #14 Orioles prospect Ryan Ludwick was sold for cash Jerry Hairston (again) netted Erik Komatsu (remember him?) I stopped looking at that point...
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    The Royals LF (Alex Gordon) is the defending 3-time Gold Glove winner in that spot, arguably their best hitter, and their highest-paid position player. They're not moving him for Willingham! Willingham would be far more likely to display Aoki in RF, even if he isn't as comfortable in the position. Although I have to imagine Butler or Hosmer could be benched/moved if the team is serious about making a run, which could open a spot for Willingham too but it would also mean the Royals could target any 1B/DH and not just an OF.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    The past week, Parmelee has 19 PA, with 9 hits and 8 K's (and no walks). For the season, he's got career worst BB and K rates. I think Arcia and Parmelee have shown us before how volatile this combination is, I don't think it's worth reading much into small samples of success (Parm as a 2015 Willingham replacement? Really?). They've got to change those peripherals or have some more sustained success over the remainder of 2014 before I even think about penciling them into a job next year. (Note that I am in full favor of giving them lots of ABs this year to find out, especially as we are falling out of the race.) Parmelee had a great two week stretch last June/July too, certainly more sustainable and arguably better than this one: June 22-July 6, 2013: 47 PA, .325/.426/.675, 7/7 K/BB June 14-June 30, 2014: 34 PA, .500/.529/.688, 9/2 K/BB At the end of that streak last year, Parm was OPSing .729 for the season in 250 PA (480 PA season pace), starting over 4 of every 6 team games for over half a season. One bad week with a ~50% K rate wiped out 2/3 of his hot streak OPS gains and sent him to AAA. Now he's back, with slump and a streak and he's at .736 OPS in 106 PA in 2014. Point is, he's a streaky hitter, and he isn't doing anything he hasn't done before.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting idea. As bad as Moustakas has been with the bat, he has also graded out about 1-1.5 more wins per season on average over Plouffe defensively at 3B (although Plouffe has been improving by the metrics and Moustakas has been dropping, so they are roughly equal this season so far). And Plouffe is a career 96 OPS+ bat, with a 99 OPS+ this season, with salaries rising to $3+ million. He's useful, but his value profile might be closer to Eduardo Nunez than any stretch-run difference maker. The Royals RF hole also looks somewhat temporary -- I can't see them giving up much for Willingham unless something more permanent opens up (like benching Butler or Hosmer?).
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Morneau does have a .823 road OPS this year, and a 125 OPS+. That's actually pretty darn close to his pre-concussion career 128 OPS+, and notably better than his 2011-2013 figure of 100 OPS+. His BB rate is way down, but he also has a career low K rate which can be pretty darn valuable (I call it the Kurt Suzuki special).
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Definitely. I have to imagine that will be coming to B-Ref at some point, now that they've had minor league game logs and splits on the individual player pages for awhile. Should be able to provide minor league player/team/system OPS+ and ERA+ figures based on that data.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Out of curiosity, I quickly ran this for 2011 too -- the Twins affiliates came in 30th, dead last in R/G to League R/G Ratio. So ranking 15th in 2014 so far is definitely an improvement! Now, these numbers (and those of mine above) are far from perfect -- I think individual home ballparks may be skewing things beyond just leagues -- but they give a rough idea of minor league run prevention. Here are the 2011 numbers: 1 STL 0.82 2 TEX 0.82 3 SFG 0.82 4 KCR 0.83 5 MIL 0.84 6 TOR 0.85 7 FLA 0.86 8 CHC 0.87 9 OAK 0.88 10 LAD 0.90 11 ARI 0.91 12 SDP 0.91 13 LAA 0.92 14 PHI 0.93 15 SEA 0.99 16 CLE 1.00 17 WSN 1.00 18 PIT 1.01 19 CHW 1.01 20 HOU 1.01 21 DET 1.02 22 NYM 1.02 23 TBR 1.03 24 BAL 1.03 25 BOS 1.04 26 COL 1.04 27 NYY 1.04 28 ATL 1.05 29 CIN 1.12 30 MIN 1.14
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Good catch. By my rough calculation, for full season leagues, the Twins affiliate R/G to league R/G ratio only ranks 15th. Rochester and Ft Myers are above league average, New Britain and Cedar Rapids are both worse than league average. Just a hair above average overall, notably better than only the White Sox within our division. Rank Aff. R/G / LgR/G Ratio 1 MIL 0.77 2 CHC 0.83 3 NYM 0.84 4 STL 0.85 5 TEX 0.86 6 ARI 0.88 7 HOU 0.89 8 SFG 0.89 9 MIA 0.91 10 TOR 0.94 11 KCR 0.94 12 OAK 0.96 13 LAA 0.96 14 DET 0.97 15 MIN 0.98 16 CLE 0.98 17 PIT 0.99 18 BOS 1.00 19 LAD 1.01 20 NYY 1.02 21 COL 1.03 22 SDP 1.03 23 SEA 1.04 24 TBR 1.05 25 WSN 1.06 26 BAL 1.08 27 CHW 1.11 28 CIN 1.11 29 ATL 1.13 30 PHI 1.20
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    More thoughts: Raw totals is also a really bad way to look at this, since teams have unequal numbers of minor league affiliates. The Twins have the minimum (7), but half the teams in the league have either 8 or 9. Just looking a runs *per game* across all affiliates at B-Ref, the Twins ranking drops to 4th. BUT, this seems to be particularly skewed too by super-high-scoring short season leagues (some of those teams are giving up an average of 8 runs/game!), and Twins affiliates are absent from 3 of the 4 highest-scoring short season leagues. By runs per games for full season affiliates only, the Twins rank drop to 7th. And most of the difference seems to be Rochester -- outside of AAA, the Twins fall to 16th. Rochester counts, though, and they are indeed much improved over past seasons. But contrary to what the raw data seemed to suggest, the Twins are probably not in contention for best minor league pitching system. (We are also absent from the 4 highest scoring full season leagues, so I suspect our rank would drop further if one corrected for home ballpark.) Also, I noticed Milwaukee's run prevention is pretty thoroughly outstanding throughout their minor league system -- they maintained their top rank in most permutations above. Their AAA team has been especially outstanding , considering it is in the PCL.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    For those curious, there is also an option to sort by just Runs (including unearned runs) and the Twins are still 2nd best. Would be interesting to see this neutralized by league/ballpark -- I suspect the Twins benefit a lot by not having any teams in the traditional offensive minor leagues, at any level (no teams in the PCL, SOU/TEX, CAR/CAL leagues). Interesting that Milwaukee is apparently the best in minor league run prevention -- I remember lots of posters here criticizing their minor league system this past winter. From the same site, we are #1 in fewest walks allowed (surprise!), #2 in fewest HR allowed, and #3 in fewest hits allowed, although only #23 in pitching K's.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    To tie my post back to yours, out of the players in your list, I think Jeter might be the most hopeful comparison for Mauer's 2014. None of the others ever really rebounded from a similar performance drop, post-30. Even then, Jeter only had ~2 plus seasons after his drop at age 34.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Just crunched some numbers... to finish this season with his career slash line pre-2014, Mauer would have to go roughly .375/.466/.589 from here on out -- which highlights how remarkable his whole 2009 season was (.365/.444/.587). (Although we are in a notably worse offensive environment now: 4.82 runs/game in 2009, down to 4.27 so far this year, making this level of performance even less likely now.) Slighty more useful: if from now until the end of the season, Mauer hits at his pre-2014 career averages, he will finish at approximately .297/.373/.408, for a .782 OPS or roughly a 118 OPS+ (roughly what Dozier is hitting so far this season). Actually that is just shy of his preseason ZIPS of .292/.378/.414 (.792 OPS). Not a lot of evidence to suggest that is going to happen either, though (his 10 game hitting streak is mostly BABIP, only 2 walks and below career average ISO during that time too). The fairly optimistic Steamer projections have him hitting roughly that sub-career average level (.794 OPS) for the rest of the season, meaning he finishes at a .743 OPS, or a ~108 OPS+. That's 2014 Suzuki territory, notably ahead of only Mauer's lost 2011 season (which is still, as a 102 OPS+, notably ahead of Mauer's 2014 so far).
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Last place, now third worst winning percentage in the AL, ahead of only the last-place teams in the East and West divisions. Closer to the worst record in the league (4 games, only 2 teams to pass) than the 2nd wild card (6.5 games, 8 teams to pass).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    He was added last winter, to protect him from this past Rule 5 draft. Same for Vargas and Kepler.
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