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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    On second glance, I thought this too. (Could also just be Gardy rambling and saying nothing at all, of course.)
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I am sure once Correia's FIP luck evens out, he will be right back to being the career 85 ERA+ starter he was entering the season! You have to admit, the way Gardy invoked Correia's salary was really weird. "He's paid good money to do that" is a pretty common saying in sports, and can have positive type connotations, but "he's going to get paid no matter what" is a little odd.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I think this is the same thing Jack Buck always said when leaving parties.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Morneau. Plus, we didn't really have anything to trade. Still don't, really.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Even then, his current ERA is closer to his 2011-2012 FIP than his 2011-2012 ERA. And before last night, his BB/9 was 4.2, basically midway between 2012 and 2013. He's not a star, but he's probably got the right amount of upside to be worthwhile on a modest contract. That said, bringing it back into the context of this thread, I agree he probably wasn't going to get near that upside with the Twins again. (Although I'm not really sure that's a good excuse for Gardy/Anderson...)
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    He's definitely not 2006, 2010, or 2013 vintage Liriano at the moment, but he's not quite at 2011-2012 depths yet either (at least by FIP & xFIP). Plus, he's getting paid about the same as Pelfrey -- he doesn't have to be dominant to be a good value.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Darnel Logan? Can we trade alter egos? That opens up some possibilities...
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Um... Hicks has already collapsed, right? In terms of counting on him as a MLB starter in 2015, at least. The other two guys haven't had that chance to fail yet, but neither has played CF above A-ball yet either. And one of them can't even swing a bat at the moment. I guess it is still possible one of those guys could win the MLB CF job in spring training 2015, but it's not looking terribly likely at the moment. So acquiring another CF somehow should be a priority. I agree that trade might not be the best way, though -- it would help earlier than waiting for a free agent this offseason, and immediately lessen our dependence on Hicks/Santana, but it could cost more. Do we have any trade assets that aren't key pieces, other than bullpen guys or already failed prospects? Maybe not...
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    From Reusse: I guess there's no real harm in this while he's the hot hand, but this seems kinda stupid otherwise. Santana doesn't walk, probably isn't a high enough AVG hitter to make up for it in terms of OBP, and K's a lot. His batting numbers so far scream unsustainable. And you want to remake your whole lineup for this guy? He might be one of our top 9 hitters at the moment, but he probably isn't even top 6, and this is the guy you want to give the most plate appearances on the whole team? What's wrong with Dozier at leadoff? It's tempting to want to see those HR in the middle of the order, but he's probably not our top HR hitter long-term. He's a great OBP guy, and a solid 2B/HR/SB threat, and he's been excelling in the leadoff role for awhile now. Plus, Dozier-Mauer-Willingham-Arcia-Plouffe/Pinto has a nice alternating flow to it. Are we still that committed to getting Mauer back to the #3 spot? Not bashing Mauer, but he looks less like a #3 hitter than ever before. We should consider ourselves lucky we've got a well-rounded RH bat to slot in front of him, and an apparently healthy RH power bat behind him, and quit messing around with marginal bats at the top of the lineup.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I believe this is the Reusse article in question: http://www.startribune.com/sports/blogs/261929191.html
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    So 85 wins triggers a Ludacris concert at Target Field?
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I like me some Dozier, but OPS-wise, he's basically the same this year as the final 4 months of 2013. I think your take on the rotation is a little optimistic too. Hughes should be a candidate for some regression; Gibson too with his peripherals. Nolasco and his career 94 ERA+ entering the season is hardly a lock for #2 type performance. I'm excited for Meyer and May too, but neither is a can't-miss type guy (especially May) and there could easily be a season-plus transitional period, like Gibson, Baker, Lohse, etc. (Plus the Twins have had some real trouble transitioning starting pitchers to MLB recently.) I think if they can keep up their current pace (just under .500) for the rest of the season, despite whatever regression or injuries happen, it will be an achievement (and a welcome change from the past 3 years finishes).
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    For the record, most of these guys were around last year, and most were performing at roughly similar levels for much of the season too. Santana is new in 2014, and Escobar and Gibson are performing better despite shaky peripherals, but otherwise, the youth transformation at the MLB level has mostly stalled since mid to late 2013 (not that it's bad, it is definitely better than regressing!). The transformation so far this year has mostly been Hughes, and maybe Suzuki too on the position player side.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    This makes an awesome drinking game. Particularly if you call the drink a "jam shot". Just don't make it very strong or you will die of alcohol poisoning after just an inning or two.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I understand that. But the above posters were suggesting that kind of experimentation or "holding back" was a regular practice in the minors. If so, then it should be visible somewhere in the data -- i.e. there should be example(s) of a highly touted pitcher posting low K numbers in the low minors before going on to success (and presumably higher K numbers) later. Other posters have suggested this is a new/unique approach just for Stewart. Which explains the numbers, but being a "test case" isn't exactly reassuring! Also, seems kind of odd that a pitcher simply wouldn't be allowed to throw an allegedly very good pitch -- I could see limited use, yes, but you can't just not throw it and expect to develop as a professional. That said, his K rate isn't super-low, it's a small sample, he's young, and he's getting good results otherwise. Definitely not writing him off, but I will also be a little more wary of penciling him into any future MLB rotations for the time being.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Good point. Marquis was actually cut at a really bad time -- no one was pitching well on that staff, we were already short 2 starters due to injury and demotion, Blackburn was almost equally as bad as Marquis, and there weren't really any good alternatives left. That's an example of a time when you should hold on to every healthy pitcher you can. There were multiple likely points of failure and a lack of even interesting replacements. By comparison, this year's Twins are a model of success and depth (thanks to Hughes and the 3-4 interesting names at AAA). I still wouldn't mind seeing Correia in a bullpen role -- outside of Hughes I'm not really sold on anyone quite yet, and Correia might actually be a nice asset in the pen as a true long man.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    The current circumstances are somewhat unique (2 of best 9 bats are currently catchers), but this isn't the first time the Twins have employed or desired three catchers either. Also nothing about the situation is sudden or unexpected. Going into 2012, 2013, and even 2014, the Twins knew they had 2 catchers they liked as everyday bats and no solid everyday DH. (Actually, the "no solid everyday DH" thing goes back to... Ortiz? Molitor?) In that light, it's a bit of a roster fail to only have the likes of Butera, Herrmann, and Fryer (my irrational favorite Twin and Red Wing) available for the role. Doumit might have actually been a good 3rd string, but the Twins thought of him as top 2. Pinto might be a good one too, if the Twins simply made him the regular DH. They have established clear criteria for when they want a third catcher, and seemingly every year in Gardy's tenure (since 2005 at least) built their roster to require a third catcher by that criteria, and yet every year failed to have a third catcher with any more value to a MLB roster other than already owning catching equipment.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    As someone mentioned above, Oakland's Vogt is actually a decent hitter -- very good numbers in the minors, 95 OPS+ in his first real MLB action last year. And Norris/Jaso are both clearly better (and more valuable) than Suzuki right now -- both would warrant precautionary rest or removal from a game earlier and more frequently than Suzuki. Another example would be Atlanta, who is ostensibly carrying three catchers even without the need for a regular DH, but Doumit isn't there to be a third string catcher -- he's mostly there to pinch hit and DH or play the field once in awhile. LeCroy was that player at times for the Twins too. I am pretty sure the Twins are mostly alone in their desire to have a dedicated third string catcher at times, regardless of offensive ability (or lack thereof). Corky Miller, Chris Heintz, later period Butera, now Herrmann or Fryer. I will say, they haven't employed a third catcher THAT often, as a percentage of each season. But probably more than most teams, and they have certainly done it repeatedly since 2005 or so, with the same type of player, usually for the same type of concerns.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    If this approach is common for guys in the minors, shouldn't this context be reflected in the statistical record, though? Shouldn't there be other examples of guys like Stewart who started their MiLB careers with low K rates while working on other stuff? If Stewart is a singularly unique case, that probably hurts his odds of future MLB success. Obviously, it's way too early to judge Stewart much, but it would be comforting if there was some precedent for his start (honestly not sure if there is or isn't).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Remember, the Twins apparently pursued Rajai Davis hard this past winter, which suggests they agreed that Hicks could use more AAA seasoning. But then when they didn't get Davis, they made no other CF moves and stood pat with Presley/Mastro (actually took a step backwards with Bartlett), all but guaranteeing that Hicks would be the MLB starter, ready or not. Seems like that was a bigger "raw deal" for Hicks than anything else.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes. For example, Ervin Santana should expect another QO this winter from the Braves after his one-year deal is up. He could have avoided that by waiting a few more weeks to sign, but I suspect he didn't because the QO and comp pick isn't as big of a deal as it has been made out to be. It certainly does not appear to be the primary factor keeping Drew unsigned.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    What would you have offered, if you were the Twins? I was a Drew supporter, but his extended holdout (and re-signing with Boston weeks before the comp pick disappears) doesn't look good for him. At this point, it's pretty clear his demands were/are much too high for the market.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Redmond never topped ~$1 mil in annual salary. Unless by "Mike Redmond type deal" you meant make him the manager.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't suggest anything about depth quality. But we all agree the back of the MLB level depth chart should be Pelfrey and Correia. We already sorta know Pelf is back there from his demotion (or "injury"), and if he subs in for Correia soon, we'll know KC is/was back there too. Not real excited to see either of them take the hill, but if I know for certain they are at the back of the MLB depth chart, and there is precedent for bouncing them for bad performance, that's good news. I agree it still doesn't address the bad performance threshold it would take for a AAA guy to unseat Pelf (or KC).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree, obviously we'd love to see every player on the team and in the minors perform well. But I see where Brock is coming from too. How do you define "well"? Correia performing "well" might mean "just well enough to get a few more starts" which could preclude us from seeing a potentially better performance from May (or at least seeing if he can take Correia's spot in 2015). And it's a question of time. Correia's had a month and a half already where, overall, he has failed to perform well.
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