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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, here are Escobar's 2013 season stats from 1 year ago today: .298/.333/.474, .807 OPS (.306 BABIP) 60 PA, 5 XBH, 3 BB, 6 K Compared to 2014: .347/.367/.533, .900 OPS (.410 BABIP) 80 PA, 12 XBH, 3 BB, 14 K Adjust for PA and BABIP spike and they are nearly identical, maybe 20% more XBH but also ~75% more Ks. Still, he's the hot hand and our best bet to start at SS right now, but nowhere near a permanent solution yet. Santana should still be playing SS everyday at Rochester with the expectation that he will get his chance in the not so distant future.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I have seen this posted before, so I just want to set the record straight: Escobar did NOT hit particularly well in winter ball. He slashed .254/.315/.415 for a .729 OPS, moderately better than his previous winter league performances, but the league OPS was about .770 -- and most of the players in this league are not particularly good MLB or even AAA players (if they haven't washed out of the pro's altogether). Escobar ranked 30th out of 35 qualified batters in OPS: http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=l_bat&sid=l135&lid=135 His K and BB rates there were also perfectly in line with his MLB/MiLB performances to date. I think he got off to a hot start in winter ball, which was reported here and has since been repeated without checking his overall performance.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty sure Arcia could take the spot of Santana or better yet the 13th pitcher right now, if the Twins only wanted to give him a little more time to heal. I think they want to give him time to get back on track at AAA, more than just heal. He looked pretty bad in spring training and the first week this year -- all of last year's negatives without many positives. That's a good reason to burn an option year.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Good question for this thread. Correia is already at the Silva/Lohse demotion date from 2006 (both were sent to the bullpen in mid-May after 8 starts). The Twins had higher expectations for that season, and those two were arguably worse in their 8 starts than Correia so far, but they also had better track records and more team control left (both could be controlled through the following season, 2007).
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know, I think it is performance as much as anything (although health concerns help affirm the decision). I don't think they would have burned an option year on him just to give him a little extra time to heal. Heck, they've already given a few guys ~5 days to heal on the MLB roster this season.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I actually agree, but you don't even need aging curves to back it up. Just that, hot start 2014 notwithstanding, Dozier doesn't project as a superstar, which he would almost have to be to earn over $35 mil in the next 5 years. His projected performance, and thus salaries and cost containment potential, appear to be much more modest, more comparable to Span than to, say, Kipnis or Gyorko (although admittedly, both of those guys are pushing that "star potential" boundary down). I would hope his agent would be receptive to something in the neighborhood of 5/20 (my guess for Span's deal adjusted for baseball inflation, or 4/20 if you start it in 2015). Dozier still has almost two seasons of making peanuts before he's even arb-eligible, and he still has fair amount of downside potential (his June 2013 change reverting, losing even more AVG down to Uggla territory, etc.). His profile suggests looking for some guaranteed millions now rather than maximizing career earnings down the road.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    The key question might be: what kind of player is Dozier? He looked solid last year, and in the early going this year, he looks like a star (at least, outside his AVG). But it's probably too early to tell if he is or ever will be a star, given his track record. Span's deal would actually be pretty nice. 5 years, $16.5 mil, covering two pre-arb seasons and 3 arb seasons guaranteed, with a $9 mil team option for the first free agency season. Scale that up for the intervening 4 years of baseball inflation and it seems like it could be appropriate for Dozier right now. They even have somewhat comparable track records (decent pedigrees but not top prospects, some struggles in the minors and/or early MLB). The tricky part may be that, at that time, Span had almost 2 seasons under his belt at a 4+ WAR per season pace and 117 OPS+. (Turns out they were his 2 best seasons at the plate, unfortunately!) Thanks to his slow start in MLB, Dozier only has about 1 season at that level. By the time he finishes 2014, he could have a more comparable track record, but he will also be one year closer to arb and free agency, which should bump up his contract by comparison. (Also, obviously, he could finish 2014 pretty strong and get a bump too.)
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I think we're all aware of aging curves, but aging curves alone don't tell you to never sign contracts covering age 31-32 seasons. They suggest not signing contracts BEYOND those seasons more than anything else, especially for players who don't have a lot of room to decline and still be useful.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Plenty of room. Right now nobody has much of a claim to start in LF, RF, or DH (not to mention the known trouble spots of SS and CF). Santana or Nunez will be back in AAA at some point, and we could drop a pitcher too. If Kubel keeps trending down, I hope they're not afraid to cut him once we have ready replacements. Colabello could easily wind up taking Parm's spot down in AAA too.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, I heard rumblings that Molitor resisted coaching for many years because of the time and travel commitments (can't blame him!). I doubt he would jump quickly from his home state for a full-time managing gig elsewhere.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I guess when getting the band back together, they needed to bring back their Australian tour manager? Hope he becomes Grant Balfour 2.0! Without the arm injuries!
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, I remember during the offseason and spring training, both Kubel and Gardy were saying they expected him to play a lot of outfield. Maybe not exactly 28 of 36, but also not significantly less than that.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Mays also saw his K/9 drop by an average of almost 1 K/9 per year, for each of the 4 years prior to his surgery.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Kipnis is a year ahead of Dozier, service-time (although just about the same age). He got his big deal AFTER his "breakthrough" year (2013: 133 OPS+, 5.9 rWAR). That would put Dozier on track for something equivalent AFTER 2014, if 2014 proves to be his full-season breakout. Then you can also adjust the relative value based on Dozier's 2014 performance. Also, Kipnis got 6/52 plus an option, or if you lop off the final year, it was 5/38. So if Dozier was to sign now, 3/4 of a season earlier than Kipnis, we'd probably get a discount compared to that, no? 5/30? Dozier should probably be at a bit of a disadvantage compared to Gyorko and Kipnis -- both of them were more highly regarded as prospects (both top 100) and haven't yet had the down stretch that was Dozier's 2012 (although Gyorko is starting slow this year), so they both might be more safely projected.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Depending on how you define elite. Gyorko looks promising, but I'm not sure that he's elite. Kipnis isn't a traditional "elite" guy but positionally, he sure looked elite last year.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Just wanted to share one of my favorite, REAL, possibly baseball-related bible verses, Judges 20:16
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, .700 is almost league average right now, which makes it a fairly high bar for SS and CF (and 4th OF). (Could be almost a lateral move replacing our current 3B/LF/RF too, unfortunately...)
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I heard that too. Seems a bit premature to make an ad about him (and a cowbell giveaway promotion?). I guess the roster is light in the marketability department right now.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I should add the game we attended, the dugout box had a lot of families and older kids who were happy to interact with little kids too. Since it was early season, and against the Royals, there were also some more open seats than usual, I am guessing.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I liked dugout box with my 2 year old. We were in the section right above the visiting dugout (Royals) and they tossed a lot of baseballs up between innings, at least to the first couple rows (for slightly older kids, mainly). Close enough where the kid could actually see and identify Mauer, the ball, bats and gloves, etc. There was also some open space to walk around in the back of the section, and the third base lounge (with private restrooms), without dealing with the crazy concourses. It also seemed a lot quieter than other parts of the park (no speakers overhead). I scored tickets at about $30 each for a good weather April Friday night game (using the Ticket King discount code). We were with a small group, though, so the kid had a lot of welcome distractions. If it was just me and the kid, I would probably go cheap, try to meet TC Bear, and hope she takes a nap on me so I can finish the game!
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Bench right now, but possibly Rochester ultimately. He's so limited/blocked defensively on this club, and his offense just hasn't overcome that yet. He might be able to pinch-hit for a Florimon or Hicks type black hole, but it would probably be better to address the black hole than keep a limited, modest pinch hit caddy around for it.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed, although he is becoming less cheap every year. He's making $2.35 million this year, and for his ~.700 OPS production, he may not be worth a raise beyond that, particularly if he's a corner OF or utility guy. Ideally he could still bridge us to Sano in 2015, but it might be best to deal him (or even non-tender him?) before then too, depending on Sano's rehab.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Parker, I did read the article fully. Your final paragraph conclusion that "he is almost certain to see his numbers fall" is still pretty odd, since his numbers had already fallen by the time you published this. (I am guessing you started researching/writing this a week or so earlier, when his OPS was closer to .900 than .700!) And you have to admit the title of the article likewise doesn't make much sense, given that the production drop was already there -- his hot streak can't "last" or "continue" if it's already over! But, that's mostly nit-picking. Definitely appreciate your research and analysis -- you really offer an in-depth look at the Twins that isn't available from other writers, even here at Twins Daily.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    It was really weird timing for this article. May as well ask if Colabello's hot start will last now? Or Kubel's? Or Gibson's? That said, I am not too worried about Plouffe. Looks like he could be a .700 OPS player even without the HR binges, that's probably a little under recent average for 3B but not too bad, and his defense looks average/acceptable. He's not a #3 hitter, of course.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    But... that 13th ERA rank (actually 14th this morning?) already includes Hughes pitching very well, as well as Deduno at 75% of a starting role, and a fair amount of Gibson pitching above his K/BB peripherals. The rank already reflects that. How much will the overall rank improve with just Nolasco's improvement (and Correia's, hopefully)? Still, should be better, but how much? Could we stabilize around ~10th rank in both runs scored and runs allowed?
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