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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not a matter of having options left. Once you have enough much service time (5 years, I think?), you can refuse any assignment to AAA and become a free agent (and still collect your salary). Options are meaningless at that point. As an extreme example, Joe Mauer probably has all of his options left, but the Twins couldn't simply assign him to AAA without his permission (not anymore at least -- his first few seasons, it could have been done).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Doumit was also barely a catcher anymore, and not much of a fielder of any kind. And it was an NL team that traded for him... I think Gilmartin's stock was a bit lower than you think! That said, Suzuki has been traded the past two Augusts, for pretty marginal A-ball guys both times. Modest salary relief was the primary return for Suzuki's teams.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    It was encouraging that they dropped Pelfrey (at least temporarily) when he wasn't performing, and it would be likewise encouraging to see them drop a poor performing Correia even if it's just to give Pelfrey another chance. It would be a clear indicator of a smart SP depth chart at the MLB level.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Darnell was 7.2 K/9 at AA last year, in his second time through the league, and not real young for the league either (24). Fell to 6.8 in AAA last year, which was not surprising. 9.6 this year? That's surprising! None of the starters in AAA have great BB rates right now, but they are racking up the Ks and limiting the hits (well, except for Diamond) even when their histories would not suggest it (Darnell and Johnson). I wonder if the AAA pitching coach isn't a "pitch to contact" guy? From the numbers, it looks like these guys are pitching aggressively rather than the more passive guys we are used to seeing.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, age and league context do put Ortiz in a more favorable light: through age 30 (Suzuki's current age), Ortiz had an almost identical slash line, minus 50 points of SLG (and thus about 10 points of OPS+). But yeah, Ortiz was born a backup catcher, so isn't a good comp. It's been a fun ride with Suzuki so far. He is still showing the same low power as his 2011-2012 seasons, though, so I'm not sure how sustainable/repeatable it is. He's dropped his K's which is helpful (and a welcome sight on this team!).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Is there something in the water at Rochester? Meyer and May were K guys at AA, but Darnell and Johnson have increased their Ks by 40-50% this year.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    His slide? Over 142 PA, he's 2 singles off from his career AVG. 5 singles off from his career high AVG. (Admittedly, he's also off on his OBP and SLG paces, but we're talking small margins there too -- he has 3 BB when he should have 5, 0 2B instead of... 2.) Again, I wouldn't give up much for him, but he's not worthless to us (or to the Phillies, which is why he's unlikely to be traded).
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't trade Hicks for him, but if Philadelphia wanted to dump his salary, I would offer something else. Revere could free Hicks to play everyday in AAA for awhile, and would be an upgrade over Fuld as a 4th OF too. If Arcia and Willingham ever come back, he'd be our best pinch running and defensive replacement option too. Of course, Philadelphia is not going to trade him, at least not as a salary dump. Their backup CF in MLB is Tony Gwynn Jr; in AAA, Clete Thomas. And no MLB team would ever turn to Clete Thomas to be their starting CF.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know if they blew it as much as they just wanted Arcia to spend more time in AAA and Gardy wants his third catcher back for interleague play. Hard to argue too much with the former, but very easy to argue with the latter.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    As much as batting average can be overrated sometimes, not many MLB hitters have sustained marks under .200 for as long as Hicks unless they are cooked (or just not capable in the first place). To continue with the cooking analogy, I guess you could argue that Hicks is still "raw" but he's not real young. Gomez was raw but he still consistently hit around .250 over a large (albeit somewhat spotted) sample before his breakthrough -- I think it's easier to project adding strength/power onto that and getting a decent player. Hicks is batting .194 so far -- he has to make some adjustments just to stay in MLB at this point, much less warrant any projections above that. That said, I wouldn't give up on him. Unless he came back looking like Mike Trout this spring, I'd have started him in AAA this year. Maybe a little late for that now? I'd trade him for JJ Hardy circa 2010 in a heartbeat, though, faster than I would have Gomez.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Gomez's first year in Milwaukee didn't look good, that's for sure, but his second year was the beginnings of his power spike. Outside of having some struggles early and ostensibly both being CFers, I don't think Gomez and Hicks are all that similar, no. Gomez was a consistent performer in the minors who was also consistently ranked on prospect lists, performed well defensively everywhere, and was regarded as rushed and underdeveloped (weight/strength-wise) his entire pro career. Again, he was traded at the same age Hicks is now for an established valuable MLB shortstop. Hicks' performance has been up and down his entire pro career, and outside of skipping AAA at age 23, he's never really been rushed, and I can't recall ever hearing any concerns about his physical development. Moreover, while Gomez's development path was not unprecedented, it's not typical either. I always hate when people compare young players to Gomez or Hunter at the same age; sure, it suggests that sort of improvement is possible, but doesn't address if it is really probable. By all logic, after his departure from the Twins, even with added strength, Gomez probably should have peaked as a 90 OPS+ speed/glove guy. That he greatly exceeded that is one of the joys and surprises of baseball. If Hicks massively improves from his current performance level, on both sides of the ball, it will be a surprise.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree with your overall assessment of the trade, but Revere did have a .326 career MiLB BA, and was right around .300 in the full MLB seasons immediately preceding and following the trade. Coupled with his low K%, that's got to register as some kind of hit tool. Actually, while his 2014 is definitely disappointing thus far, Revere is just 2 singles off of his career AVG entering the season, and only 5 singles off of his career high .305 AVG from last season. Just a little Revere love, that's all. Like him, but glad my team didn't trade for him!
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, that 10 day rule is only an issue now because the Twins decided to option Arcia a few days ago, with full knowledge of our upcoming schedule. (Actually, we could have activated and optioned Arcia four days earlier, keeping him in AAA but making him eligible to return tomorrow.) In some ways, shouldn't we be less likely to need a 3rd string catcher in an NL park? One of Suzuki and Pinto will be on the bench for at least the first 5-6 innings of every game, probably longer if the game isn't real close. If we really want to keep them on the field after pinch hitting, putting them into LF or RF probably wouldn't be the worst corner OF defense move we make this season (or even this week).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    2 years older. Gomez was in mid June of his first season with the Twins, 22.5 years old, when he reached Hicks' current career PA total (Hicks is 24.5 years old). And he actually seemed to be stabilizing around a .700 OPS at that time, with his customary plus defense. Gomez slid to a .657 OPS finish that season, and unfortunately spent basically the entirety of his next season (age 23) as a part-time player. You remember folks here ragging on the Twins for only playing Parmelee at a 490 PA pace last year? Imagine if he was 2 years younger, just one year removed from being a top 50-60 prospect in all of baseball, and only got 350 PA for the full season! Gomez was actually traded by the Twins before his 24th birthday, which was last October for Hicks. Guess there is more than one way to interpret that -- Gomez had over twice the MLB PAs of Hicks before we "gave up" on him.... but then again, we "gave up" on him at an age that has already come and gone for Hicks. (Although trading him for 2 modestly priced seasons of JJ Hardy was hardly giving up on the guy. Do you think Hicks could net that kind of return?)
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, the Twins were never building for 2014. They've always been building for 2016+, which sucks in its own way but doesn't deserve any additional scorn for not being built by 2014. That said, even before our 2011-2012 collapse, the Twins tended to emphasize lower K pitchers and were getting inconsistent at best results at a number of defensive positions. These characteristics aren't new to the 2012-2014 Twins clubs, and are not purely the result of rebuilding trades and non-contender experimentation (although yes, the Span/Revere trades hurt in this regard). Are we going to commit to another Cuddyer/Young type corner OF defense for our next hopeful contender?
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, Gomez was significantly younger (750 MLB PAs, plus 2 WAR from defense alone, by the time Hicks made his MLB debut). The shape of his poor offense was also quite different from Hicks, for better or worse. Even at that young age, Gomez was around a .250 hitter for us. It really looks like he was one of those skinny guys who could hit a little, but eventually needed to beef up to consistently drive the ball with authority. Interestingly, Gomez was also a very consistent AVG hitter in the minors. Career MiLB of .278, and he never strayed from that .275-.281 range (and his last 3 years with the Brewers have been at .276). Hicks' minor league career, while better in some respects, has been much more volatile -- harder to project? Harder to focus improvement?
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Still not a reason to ignore it, especially when you know you have a low-K starting staff (and when the bats you are running out there have often been replacement level to average at best). And "ignoring it" is the most charitable interpretation of the Twins OF defense moves over the past 3 years. I think there is a bit of bad talent identification and underrating the effect of the pitching staff at play too.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    In addition to what Levi said (that you're only swapping one guy), it's not the result of a one-year patch: this team has been ignoring or misjudging OF defense for several years now. First Willingham was signed, then Doumit was stuck out there, then Span and Revere traded, then Parmelee, Arcia, and Hicks promoted... all of these have been more or less negative moves in terms of OF defense, even when the Twins seemed sure they would be positives like Hicks. Heck, even the cheap marginal guys, guys who should normally be more valuable with the glove than the bat, Presley, Mastro, Thomas, and Fuld (not to mention Colabello, Herrmann, Bartlett or the shortstop du jour, etc.), have all been fairly weak to bad defenders, at least in CF if not in the corners too. This pattern does not look like a one-year Buxton patch; heck, it started before Buxton was even in the organization. The good news is, once we decide to fix it, it could be done fairly easily: Buxton, Rosario, plus a modest FA could get it done. Hopefully this FO can make that determination though!
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Somewhat back on topic: Don't know PECOTA, but the author of ZiPS has found that there is less in-season regression than season-to-season. Still small samples this year, but that bodes well for a few Twins (and not so well for a few others). Fun full article here: http://www.hardballtimes.com/10-lessons-i-have-learned-about-creating-a-projection-system/ Relevant excerpt (Lesson #8):
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I should have clarified, Correia would just be more of a long/mop-up man. Still, that gives Swarzak a little more help in that role, or hopefully frees Swarzak for more valuable long relief appearances if he returns to 2013 form. Right now it feels like we are patching together too many short relievers at times (albeit largely in relief of Correia!). Tonkin in particular seems to serve no great function at the moment, neither setup nor long guy. Pelfrey, in theory, could be more a setup guy, with health and velocity.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks Parker! There is indeed a big difference between $280k and a normal AAA salary. Given Diamond's performance thus far, I also wonder if that $280k is fully guaranteed, even if he is released? (Sorry for going off-topic!)
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, Correia might be an upgrade for the pen too. Tonkin has promise but has been pretty useless this year, both in terms of his performance and his apparent role. He should be in AAA anyway. Swarzak has been pretty shaky too. We lost Deduno to the rotation, and our only reinforcement has been another shaky performer in Guerrier. I have no idea what promises were made to Correia, though -- I recall he didn't like being demoted from the Pittsburgh rotation a few years back, and given recent roster moves, it would not surprise me in the least if the Twins promised Correia a starting role. (All of the above applies the same to Pelfrey too, whenever he's "healthy" I guess.)
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Was there a reason for this change? If it was contact, it failed pretty badly, no? He struck out as much as ever in 2013 (although frankly, his 2013 results were pretty similar to his 2012 MLB results, some of which came between very successful AAA stops -- do you have any GIFs of his 2012 swings, at AAA/MLB?). I should add, great article and analysis as always. When the Twins try to hire you away, at least give TD a chance to match the salary!
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    More accurately, Parmelee was simply reassigned to Rochester. As it was his first time being outrighted, he did not have a choice in the matter. (I'll never understand why they still say he "accepted" a decision he had no choice in! I guess, maybe he accepted it more philosophically/emotionally, as in "came to terms with" rather than approved...?) Diamond, having been outrighted previously in his career, was given a true choice whether to accept the assignment or become a free agent. (Question: would Diamond still have received his ~$280k split contract salary if he had declined the assignment? Or ParmeIee if he had simply been released? I know veterans like Pelfrey still get paid regardless, not sure if it is a different set of guarantees or lack thereof for pre-arb, split-contract guys.)
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    As I understand, taking the light rail to Target Field is pretty easy, particularly if you board early (like at MOA). It's the return trip that is problematic -- while people going to Target Field board at a variety of times and stations, everyone leaving the stadium after the game is basically trying to board at the exact same time and place. I have seen some pretty long lines by the train platform when leaving the stadium. If you plan to leave a little early with the kid anyway, you should be all right, though. And at that age, the train might be the highlight of the trip!
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