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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. It's the 2014 Twins DH paradox: our overall line is pretty good there, but all of our potential DHs have struggled mightily or are needed at other positions. In MLB terms, $7.5 mil is fairly modest. The Twins just spent $2 million for two months of Jason Kubel hoping he could rebound from a terrible 2013 and a terrible 2014 spring training. $7.5 mil for 4 months of a good, healthy player is a modest outlay by comparison.
  2. I'm all for not rushing prospects, but Meyer and May are both 24 years old. Neither has skipped any levels (May in fact has repeated levels, and has 738 career MiLB IP). Remember when Gibson was originally knocking on the door in 2011? Both Meyer and May are about a full year older than Gibson was at that time. Remember when Dozier came up in 2012 as an old-ish college player? May is just two months younger than Dozier was at that time. (Gibson and Dozier are also examples of how rookies can struggle, but also how most final adjustments need to be made at the MLB level regardless. There is an upper limit to the development process in AAA, and I suspect Meyer and May are close to it, given their demonstrated abilities.) I haven't seen anyone advocate cutting Deduno, and many of us don't even want to cut Correia yet, just demote one or both to the bullpen. They would still be available to step in for another starter in the event of injury or ineffectiveness. Actually, the presence of these two (and the potential return of Pelfrey) make this an ideal time to break in younger starters at the MLB level. Unless you plan to re-sign Correia or a similar pitcher for 2015, and guarantee Pelfrey a roster spot all winter, you have more potential veteran replacements for young starters now in 2014 than you may have in 2015. First, unless Pelfrey can restart his rehab and return to the active roster within the next 3 weeks (highly unlikely), he can safely move to the 60-day DL and open up a 40-man roster spot without us losing a player. Second, if Meyer is added to the 40-man and sticks until the Sep. 1st roster expansion, he won't use an option and will still have all 3 heading into next spring. (And May of course has already used his option this year, so he can be recalled and demoted freely for the next few months with no future roster/contractual consequences.) Finally, option years are great for younger players, role players, bullpen types, etc. But if you really need to option Alex Meyer in 2017 at age 27, it's probably not a big deal to simply shift him to the pen or expose him to waivers at that point.
  3. The super 2 criteria changed slightly in the most recent CBA, right? I think a few more guys will qualify.
  4. I certainly won't defend any commenters that personally bash anyone, and I don't think that's been happening here. And I hope for his sake that he finds opportunity elsewhere if he so desires. But to put some things in perspective: according to B-Ref, even before his disastrous 2014, Kubel had 4.8 WAR in a Twins uniform (less than that in Fangraphs WAR), in the equivalent of about 5 full seasons worth of games. Jason Bartlett had more than that in his short tenure with the Twins. Nick Blackburn exceeded that total in just his first 2 seasons too. "Twins Great" Dan Gladden has him beat in fewer games as well. (Factor in 2014, and Kubel drops to 3.6 WAR, around the same level as ~2 season Twins Rick Reed and Luis Castillo.) He was part of some fun teams, and I loved his knack for memorable grand slams, but in terms on on-field Twins success, he should slot in behind the above guys, and ahead of mostly Delmon Young disappointment types. He wasn't much of a defender, and outside of 2009 never really hit enough to be a plus DH either.
  5. It's okay -- Kubel asked Rob Antony to sleep on it, so nothing is official yet.
  6. I remember listening to that game. Too bad it didn't happen in the playoffs! My Kubel memory will be the 2006 walk-off grand slam against the Red Sox, followed the next day by a Twins win featuring the bat boy tacking an on-field interloper. I'm sure some day I will conflate the two memories, and Kubel will become the tackler (or the interloper).
  7. If this is a mindset change move, it was served up to them on a silver platter -- how often do you have a fairly young, healthy quality free agent available for nothing but modest cash in June, at the same time that all of your internal options at the same position have struggled mightily over the season's first two months? I'll give them some credit for spending the money -- just like I did after the Nolasco deal -- but all that's basically saying is they're not epically cheap at the moment! Although I endorse the Morales signing, if we really want to contend, a better mindset change move might be to avoid a collapse at a position before addressing it.
  8. Yes, that was widely reported. Claiming Drew would have simply forced Boston to keep him on their 25 man roster (unless Boston surrendered him to the claiming team, which would have been odd indeed!). Optional waivers appear to be similar to revocable trade waivers in August. Although perhaps you need an option left to use them? But maybe you only need to use optional waivers before a minor league assignment if you are a veteran with 5+ years service like Drew? Certainly the Twins didn't request optional waivers on Florimon this year, nor did any other team have the ability to force us to keep Florimon on the MLB roster! Kinda makes sense. Those veterans also have a right to refuse the assignment (maybe with the same 48 hour window as the waivers?). And generally the only veterans who get optioned to the minor leagues are usually pretty bad, and it's likely no team would claim them.
  9. Are there guaranteed salary limits to minor league deals? I suspect there are, because otherwise you could sign all of your offseason free agents to minor league deals and delay putting them on your 40 man roster until the end of spring training. I suppose Morales could have done a minor league deal with the full $7 million salary if he makes the 25 man roster, with an opt-out date for, say, one week in the future. Does leave him in limbo for the next week, particularly if he gets injured or something.
  10. That article also references' Drew's one remaining option. I suspect the rules work in tandem -- Drew had to pass through "optional waivers" but he also had to have an option remaining to be placed on such waivers.
  11. It does seem like Morales just kind of fell into their lap. No player to surrender in trade, no draft pick to give up, no long-term commitment, not even that much of a short-term cash commitment really, after most/all internal options at the position failed? Kind of a no-brainer to get Morales at that point. Still, they're not the only team looking for talent, and they made it happen, so some credit is due. That said, if they really hope to compete now, or in the future where it's obvious that not every internal option works, the bigger challenge is plugging holes where 99% of the time, there isn't a freely available player like Morales. With season comeback comparisons to 2009 -- can TR swing Pavano, Rauch, and Cabrera types at the deadline? Can he find another Hughes in the FA market (and avoid the Pelfreys and maybe even Nolascos)?
  12. I don't know if it's really a change in mindset (or at least that sudden of one). They were stalking for bargains with Garza and Ervin Santana late in the offseason, probably were doing the same for Morales and Drew too. That's a welcome step forward, hopefully it continues and we actually start landing some of these guys before June. The difference this year may have been opportunity -- where in past seasons, the Twins first choice (flier on Kubel and audition for Colabello) could have created a season-long black hole or merry-go-round at the position, this year they actually had the opportunity to sign a replacement in June (thanks, Scott Boras and the current comp system!). If Morales had not been freely available, I doubt the Twins would have made a similar move in trade.
  13. His whole pro career suggests stamina issues. Only 129 IP in his first year, followed by 78 (plus AFL time) last year. He's only once completed 7 IP, and that was his 6th career pro start in low-A over two years ago. I'm sure a lot of this is caution now, but regardless of the reason, it's an issue at the moment. If he really is this good, though, I'd say shift Correia or Deduno to the pen to promote Meyer, and let them serve a little bit as his "caddy" if 5-6 IP is his in-game limit at the moment, so you only burn through short relievers if the game is close. (Another long reliever should be beneficial to the whole staff too.) And if Meyer approaches his season innings limit, use him in the pen and/or for spot starts (don't we have some rainouts to make up?). Thanks again for the write-up!
  14. Not really anymore. All of them can be controlled by the Twins through 2020 at minimum. Only remaining deadline determines whether they get 3 or 4 years or arbitration salaries, and that floating deadline should pass this month, I think. Like the draft, I'd hope they just go "best pitcher available" at this point.
  15. Another thought on Morales: it is very cool that the Twins are investing in a full-time DH for a change. (Thome was great but was not full-time by the time we got him.) It seems like we haven't paid for a full-time DH since the days of Molitor, and we haven't tried deploying any kind of full-time DH maybe since the days of Ortiz-Lecroy. Of course, we may have already had a full-time DH candidate on our roster (Willingham) who given his health may not be the best fit for full-time LF duty anymore. But in the absence of an available OF, I'm glad we took the available DH. Kinda wish Mauer was willing/able to play corner OF once in a while, could help us cycle Willingham to DH while keeping Morales' bat in the lineup at 1B too.
  16. I think the Morales deal is less about the Twins thinking they are in the race, and more just willingness to get good deals. Ervin Santana would have cost a pick, but ours was a pretty cheap 3 year offer which would have made up for it. Drew and Morales probably weren't options unless they were similarly super cheap on multi-year deals (3/24?), at least until the draft pick comp went away. Davis I'm not sure of the particulars. The fact we were interested in another outfielder makes it a little disappointing that we still haven't added one.
  17. Correct me if I am wrong, but I don't recall them really being linked to Drew. It was an obvious match and invited a lot of speculation, but I am not sure if they ever really pursued him. I sorta get drivlikejehu's point. Adding anyone of Morales' caliber right now is exciting to me, but if they are willing to do this now just because they are bringing up the tail end of a bunch of teams clustered around .500 in early June, they probably could have been more aggressive in the offseason. As it was, they really didn't do anything for the offense, and their pitching moves were mostly driven by who was willing to sign here quickly rather than quality/upside.
  18. I'm not crazy about 2 days a week either, but even being a backup C should get Pinto more meaningful playing time compared to backups at other positions. If he continues to struggle at the plate, though, probably best to send him down if they're not going to play him more.
  19. Actually, I'd rather get a long reliever for that spot. What good is it to eat one inning when there are 4-5 to go? Correia or Deduno back in this spot might make the most sense (and allow us to audition potentially better starters in the rotation while maintaining some fallback options, of course).
  20. I wouldn't send down Pinto. Even if Suzuki is the starter, he's going to get at least 2 games off out of every 7-- if we hope to stay in the race, might as well have those starts go to a guy who could be a decent hitter and passable defender, rather than punt the spot with Herrmann or Fryer. If we fall out of the race, maybe send Pinto down to play everyday, or better yet, start him at both C and DH a lot more.
  21. I don't think the Twins have ever had a serious aversion to (or deficit of) fairly hard throwers in the bullpen.
  22. Diamond is already off the 40-man roster. He cleared waivers this spring at the same time as Parmelee and accepted an assignment to AAA.
  23. So we have to keep starting Correia because... he's pitching terrible? Trade is far from the only way to remove him from the rotation. I say, shuffle him off to the bullpen, maybe in place of Guerrier -- it would be nice to have another long man instead of Guerrier anyway.
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