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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes. Not hugely, since it wasn't that large of a deal, but coming off the year he had last year, anything guaranteed beyond 1 or 2 years deserved some skepticism. (Maybe as much from the player's perspective as the team's.) But upon closer inspection, given his age, health, and past bullpen success, it was really a solid gamble for this team.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    We have been over this before, but in most respects the current system is good for the players. Kenny Wilson, for example, has stayed on a 40-man roster throughout the process, earning a slightly higher salary and staying closer to the big leagues. Your solution would simply leave more players unclaimed and removed from 40-man rosters, adding another barrier to a return to the big leagues (and reducing their minor league salary too). I could see shortening the 10 day DFA window, and adding or increasing moving expenses etc. But otherwise changing the rules could easily hurt the players in question.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    The Jays DFA'd Chris Getz before claiming Wilson, so no, Mastroianni isn't going anywhere right now.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree. That's what I meant by "tough statistical break" -- he pretty much deserved it with his poor performance, was close to getting a "statistical break" on a fairly common technicality, but just missed. How does a fairly well-regarded guy go from 2.5 BB/9 and 8 K/9 all through the minors to this (~4 BB/9 and K/9)? After the Liam Hendriks debacle (primarily in H and HR rather than BB and K), I am real curious about how Meyer and May might transition to the majors now... hopefully their extra K/9 ability acts as a bit of a buffer, but who knows...
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. I recall Dozier having a solid MLB debut in 2012, before he had established himself at AAA. Hopefully Santana can keep going for awhile, and hopefully the Twins aren't afraid to send him back quickly before things turn too sour (and hopefully we still have options to replace him!).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Tough statistical break, but not really an excuse for giving up a 3 run HR following the error. I really don't like those kind of runs being labeled "unearned" just because the error happened with 2 out.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Kubel had a pretty high K-rate from the get-go this season (although it's gotten a little ridiculous lately). And as someone else mentioned, it was pretty high in spring training too. Actually, checking his career spring training stats (cool to see them at MLB.com!), his 2014 spring training was very similarly bad as his 2013. And both were notably worse than all of his previous career spring trainings, particularly in the AVG and K categories. As his BABIP comes down (from .423 to his career mark of .306), I am afraid we might see a repeat of last season... Link to spring training stats: http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=430585#gameType=%27S%27&sectionType=career&statType=1&season=2014&level=%27ALL%27
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Herrmann has completely abandoned 3B as a pro, though, which was Inge's primary MLB position and main driver of his value. And Inge was a 100 OPS+ bat in his prime too, probably more comparable to Plouffe overall.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, Wilson was struggling at AA, as compared to Mastro, Presley, and Fuld who have had good success at AAA and even a little in MLB. So Wilson was no immediate help to anyone, not even replacement level. Also, Bartlett was expected to be the MLB backup OF having never played the position before, and having not played competitively anywhere in over a year. And keeping Bartlett was directly responsible for losing both Presley and Mastro and only replacing them with Wilson. Then later Escobar was expected to play OF because the only immediately available option was apparently the nonviable Wilson, and it probably directly cost us a game in Cleveland. The catcher Herrmann was also playing OF regularly and was sub-replacement with the bat (and also almost cost us a game with his OF defense) And the long-term value of this immediately useless Wilson? They just DFA'd him a few weeks later, in favor of Parmelee -- a move they could have made almost a month ago and had a viable MLB OF this whole time (albeit not a CF). So they have regularly been shedding replacement level OF especially CF, and been replacing them with a sub-replacement level OF and infielders and even a catcher expected to play OF. Still fairly marginal, but frustrating to watch.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Cool post! Thanks Diane and thanks Twins Daily! Just out of curiosity, how does TD score these special features? "Behind the Scenes at Twins Daily" would be a pretty interesting feature, IMHO.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I wonder what would happen if the Twins needed an emergency SS? Who would Gardy go to first, Dozier or Plouffe? And is this why he keeps 3-4 shortstops on the roster, so he never has to make this decision?
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    If Gardy was managing, he could take both Dozier and Mauer and use them as outfielders!
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Not that it's a huge deal, but your math is still wrong. According to B-Ref, Kubel was 22.098 at his debut, Parmelee 23.194. That's one year plus 96 days, or ~460 days. Kubel ascended through the minors much more quickly and thoroughly. (Heck, as good as Parm's debut was, it happened about a year earlier than it would have if the Twins season hadn't been lost in 2011.) And I bring up the injury precisely because it explains WHY Kubel sucked for most of his first 600 PA. He completely wrecked his knee, missing a full season and being limited in the next, and having to become a very different, power-centric player in the process. Parmelee doesn't really have such an excuse ("only playing 5 days a week instead of 6" is fairly weak by comparison). I still agree with your ultimate points, though -- I want to see Parmelee get another chance while we still can, and if Kubel is scuffling, it may as well come at his expense.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you counted years wrong and shortchanged Kubel by a year. Kubel was 22 when debuted, a full year-plus younger than Parmelee at the time of his debut. Kubel was also ranked #17 on Baseball America's top 100 prospect list the following winter. (Parm hasn't ranked on that list since hitting #94 when he was in rookie ball) Kubel also suffered a catastrophic knee injury shortly after that debut, which completely erased his age 23 season and rendered his age-24 season largely rehab (just 72 OPS+). The next year, his season OPS was about 93 at the time your sample ends, and he went on a tear the following two months to bring it up to 110 (his current career mark too). Parm has been a pretty consistent 84 OPS+ since his September debut, with no major injuries to report. I guess Parm didn't stay in MLB last July to have a similar opportunity to go on a tear, although he was striking out more than Kubel through July 2007, and had a lower ISO to boot.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I should have read this post first. If you think the Twins are two players away from contending for the playoffs (and those two players could be Escobar and rookie Meyer instead of Trout and Kershaw), I think we must occupy different alternate universes, and thus any baseball discussion between us would be unproductive.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Oakland also has a hole at 2B. I doubt they are interested in dumping a 123 OPS+ SS for "pitching depth". Especially considering they rank #1 in ERA even without their top starters. Plus, how many teams are ever interested in (or capable of) taking on 3 25-man roster players in exchange for 1. Such a deal would necessitate Oakland dumping multiple players in addition to Lowrie, just to make room for this supposed "depth".
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Not a bad idea. Although I don't recall Plouffe's OF experience, it was 30 games total in 2011-2012, of which he only started and completed 16, and the metrics graded his small sample of OF play as roughly equivalent to his SS/2B defense (read: not good). But yeah, probably better as an "emergency outfielder" than someone who has played the position even less. Then again, the Twins this year apparently think zero experience emergency outfielders are completely acceptable as regular backup outfielders...
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I would guess that the number of valuable players who started their career with ~600 PA of poor numbers through age 25, or the number of valuable players who were waived at age 26, is not as great as you suggest. Particularly 1B/corner OF types and especially not given the breakdown of Parm's MLB production to date (90 great PA's in a September call-up, followed by 550 PAs of 84 OPS+ mediocrity at ages 24-25). Any valuable players with that background would sort of be the exceptions that prove the rule. That said, I am still all for giving Parm another chance this season, especially with our other corner OF/DH options scuffling.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I get the Hicks/Fuld bad luck this week, but the other two of those starting outfielders (Arcia and Willingham) went out with injury over a month ago, and have yet to be replaced with an actual outfielder.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    3-for-8 with a double and a RBI in the 2012 postseason! Ford was actually pretty dominant at AAA in 2012 too (puts some of our recent AAA sluggers into perspective!). He would certainly accept a minor league deal to play at Rochester, right? Even if he wasn't 40-man rostered? Unless he's drawing an unusually (suspiciously?) large paycheck as a player/coach in Long Island...
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe Brock wants Florimon demoted to AA New Britain? (Actually, geography jokes aside, that might not be a bad idea if Santana gets sent back to Rochester...)
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. Berrios pitched 104 last year, but he got a little late start. Stewart got 3 starts in before Berrios' 2013 debut date, so 120 IP sounds about right with good health.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Morneau, despite his hot start, is actually dragging the team down in this regard --only a .987 OPS at Coors! (Still a respectable .879 on the road so far, though -- which is basically his career mark pre-concussion...)
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Even better: Lew Ford is the Long Island Ducks hitting coach too! Good sign that he could replace Bartlett's veteran leadership and Pelfrey's clubhouse character. As much as I mock the Twins for getting the band back together, bringing back Lew Ford, even for a week, would be all kinds of awesome. If the 40-man roster spot was free (60-day DL or Eric Fryer?), I would promise not to utter one negative word about the transaction.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, they didn't do your plan either, so I guess we're splitting hairs. (And I have no problem with waiting for Arcia right now, wrist injuries are not easy and should not be rushed. It's all the other outfielder or lack thereof moves that have been piling up since March.)
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