Otto von Ballpark

He is also a California native, guessing the Dodgers are his team (and style choice) from childhood. Still, poor taste. If he was a rookie, he might be excused given the prices of merchandise at pro sporting events, but for a $49 million man, just buy a damn Wild hat.

We're already past the point where the Twins would be debating 6.8 vs 6 years of control for Meyer. They would have 6.8 if the called him up now. They would have only had 6 if he had opened the year in MLB. The only issue is he could get paid more beginning in 2017 rather than 2018 if we wait another ~2 months. And I don't advocate DFA for Correia. A shift to the bullpen would suffice for the moment, if no trade partners are found.

Yeah, our future just can't afford thoughtless "win now" moves, like swapping Deduno's role with a struggling Pelfrey, or calling up a consensus top 50 prospect and shifting Correia to the bullpen perhaps 3 weeks too early. Refresh my memory: aside from proving once and for all that PJ Walters was not a major league starting pitcher, what great benefit did the Twins or Gibson get from those extra weeks he spent in AAA at 2013? The bulk of us here are not great prospect-rushers -- save your criticisms for the folks that occasionally chime in about promoting Buxton! We're talking about a timeline difference of a few weeks up to a few months, for a not-young AAA player who is performing well in the same role as a dead-end, expiring contract guy like Correia.

Kris Johnson? Unless Deduno is ready to slot into a start, they'll need another SP to avoid a short rest situation beginning Sunday.

Well, I don't think you want to make it a musical chairs thing, unless you have to (i.e. 2012-2013 Twins). Unless he's an injury replacement, you'd like the new guy to be able to earn the spot permanently if possible. So, you might be hesitant to call up Johnson right now if there was a strong possibility you'd want Meyer in 3 weeks anyway. (All the more reason to be a little more aggressive with Meyer, then!) On the other hand, May, Darnell, and Johnson, because they are already on the 40-man roster, have already been optioned this year, so they could be recalled and sent back freely without any real contractual consequence. Meyer would be the only one to burn an option year if he was sent back down in 2014 (of course, he's also the guy you'd most want to stick, and probably the guy least likely to "need" an option year in 2017).

Here's the rule, from page 8 here: http://mlb.mlb.com/pa/pdf/cba_english.pdf

But, the doubleheader would leave any open dates intact. For example, if the Twins reschedule for a doubleheader Saturday August 23, it works -- they would still only have 11 games between off days. But if they reschedule for the Monday August 25 open date, that wouldn't work by your rules, because losing that open date puts them at 24 games without an off day (they have no open dates scheduled for the previous or following weeks).

First, waiting now doesn't keep him any longer. Meyer is under Twins control through 2020 now. That won't change unless he stays in the minors basically until May 2015. Second, the rotation isn't "full". All the spots are presently occupied by someone, but that's true of virtually every rotation or lineup in the league at any given time. At least one of our starters (Correia) is a placeholder by both past performance and contract status. He is there for the very purpose of occupying the spot until someone better is ready to take over. What does he need a "leash" to prove? What is he supposed to sort out? His continued presence in the rotation will likely be a reward for his surprisingly decent 2013, and an effort by the Twins to try saving some of his salary. "Hey, if we give this guy a couple more months, we might be able to find someone to pay him his last $1-2 million in August/September, maybe even snag another Matt Macri type player to boot!" Even if you take a slightly better view of Correia or Pelfrey than myself... would it kill this team to get out in front of something for a change? Do they know you don't always have to wait until a player fails to meet expectations for X number of games before you can make a move? Particularly when those expectations are pretty low to begin with. Just like with their hesitancy about signing free agents (or even modestly expensive amateurs) -- I know you can't always predict the future, but that's hardly a reason to never try, to the best of your abilities. I'm probably jumping my own gun here -- I'd probably wait 3 weeks too. But the more I think about it, the more meaningless those 3 weeks seem. Very little outside of injury would change my mind in the intervening 3 weeks that Pelfrey should switch with Deduno, and Correia should be replaced by one of the starters from AAA. At best, the 3 weeks would serve as an additional audition period for the AAA starters, but that seems quite a sub-optimal use of the MLB rotation spot in the meantime.

My first thought, how does "**** face" sum up your feelings about the Twins so far? Shouldn't you be happy? The link answered that.

I suspect there weren't any "good" offers for him in the offseason -- more of the, "we'll take his salary and give you org filler" type offers. Too many plus arms were unsigned late this winter. I don't mind going into the year with depth, but they should be realistic in what their depth actually represents. Correia is clearly a placeholder, and Pelf is still a poor peripherals wild card with only modest upside.

Are you Rob Antony's speechwriter? This is exactly what I expect to hear in interviews the next few weeks. 5-6 innings for a good start isn't that bad anymore -- it's pretty much the going rate for Twins starters. Max Scherzer (not to keep bringing him up, but he's got some comparable MiLB K/BB numbers to Meyer) was a 5 IP starter in the minors too. One could argue that's something that's best refined at a higher level anyway -- as Kyle Gibson can attest, going deep in AAA games doesn't necessarily mean much at MLB. Plus, if he's not stressed in any particular inning, there's no reason why he has to have the same hard 100 pitch limit as everybody else. If a few more Ks and a couple walks add a few pitches each inning, stretch him to 110 or 120 if you want to use him past 6 innings.

Ah, the old "throw out his bad games, and he was good!" routine. I too was encouraged by his 2013 progression, enough to bring him back. But his performance, and career record, were modest enough to not warrant a pay raise and a two-year contract, much less a guaranteed spot for the foreseeable future.

What's a good comparable for Correia, in terms of trade asset? Hernandez and Ortiz were definitely both "ceiling is mediocrity" guys, similar age to Correia, and we were lucky to dump their salaries. We couldn't even do that for Marquis. Feel free to list your Correia trade comparables here -- I think you may be over-rating Correia's record (or under-rating the records of pitchers who have netted such return in trade).

Correia's career *best* is league average starter with poor peripherals. His average/floor is notably worse than that. And he's 33 years old and off to the worst season start of his career. And $5 mil, in modern MLB, is not a investment you have to try getting value back at all costs. They did cut Marquis and eat $3 million salary, but they also gave him 7 starts with an ERA over 8. (And they actually cut him with fewer ready replacements than we have now.) That was similar to that stats of Silva and Lohse upon their original demotions in 2006. That's too high or a bar for suckitude, though, IMHO. I definitely don't want another Mays, Reed, or Livan Hernandez situation, where they can coast until July/August with a 5+ ERA, whereupon if we're still in the race we will make a move. Correia and Pelfrey are arguably worse (or are further removed from MLB success) than those guys too (although outside of Reed's control, they all had universally poor peripherals -- shouldn't be afraid to cut guys like that, or better yet, don't guarantee them money in the first place!). If we are looking at a 12-13 man bullpen anyway, they could both be in the back of the pen for awhile. If you can't DL Pelfrey, I'd hate to send down Tonkin, but he's being sub-optimally deployed like a back of the pen guy right now anyway. And if they can't cut it in the pen either, the decision to cut bait would be even easier.

Yeah, walking 3.7 per 9 will kill you in MLB. Just look at.... Mike Pelfrey! (career 3.3 BB/9) I think the focus on his walk rate is a little much. MLB league rate is 3.4 BB/9. Meyer has always been at 3.7 or lower. Max Scherzer was walking that many in the minors too, and continued his first 2+ MLB seasons. When you have a double-digit K rate, you don't have to be a walk rate master -- mid-3's BB/9 is more than acceptable. Of course it would be nice to see them go down, but at his current level, it absolutely should not be a requirement for his promotion. Pitchers have to refine and adapt at the MLB level too, so you don't need to be a perfectly finished product. My fear is he could be kept in AAA for that reason, or to start pitching deeper into games, etc. -- stuff that doesn't really prevent him from effectively getting batters out and being an improvement over Correia (or Pelfrey).

Is he really? If you look at his overall AAA numbers this year, they're a pretty close match for his AA numbers from last year, given league context. And isn't "show that the changeup is real and that he's truly a dominant pitcher" a pretty high bar? The new changeup could be nothing and render him not dominant, but still a much better pitcher than Kevin Correia. That's really the bar -- they don't want to call him up if they think they will have to send him back down again. And he should only have to go back down if he's worse than Kevin Correia. I mostly agree with you, a couple weeks won't really hurt, but how much are they going to benefit? If he is a little less than dominant, or has to fiddle a bit with the changeup, does that push his MLB arrival back to June? July? Correia is basically a professional placeholder. If he has any value to a good team, it should be that he can go between starting and long relief as needed.

Mostly agree, but Pelfrey has looked so bad already, I'd swap him and Deduno for at least a turn while you try to figure him out. Pelf can get back on track or prove his health from the back of the pen -- he's 4 years removed now from MLB success that would have earned him any more slack than that. And Correia's performance would be a complete non-factor for me -- we know Correia's range as a pitcher exactly, and it's suitable for keeping a spot warm or patching a bad staff. As soon as Meyer or another AAA starter is deemed ready, they should get that spot.

Although I kinda get what you're saying, nobody is basing a Meyer decision on two starts. His early results in 2014, while the first time he's been at AAA, are perfectly consistent with 2013, and basically his pro career.

Pelfrey, second half of 2013, had roughly a 92 ERA+ and averaged less than 5.5 IP per start. Better than his first half, but not sure if I'd call that "quite good". Certainly shouldn't guarantee him much slack in 2014. Also, to be fair, his rough start in 2014 isn't just a run of the mill, bad-luck rough patch -- it looks fairly epically bad. 15 BB, 8 K, 5 HR in 19.2 IP. That's the kind of trend I want to see the Twins getting in front of with a roster move, not waiting too long to let it play out some more.

True, and I have actually defended the overall Santana strategy (as infuriating as it was at the time). In 2006, Carlos Silva was dropped from the rotation after his 8th start, on May 14th, and Liriano took his next turn. So that's maybe the timeline this year? Silva's contract situation was similar to Correia this year (although Silva had a team option year). Silva had an 8.80 ERA in those 8 starts, with peripherals to match. Lohse was dropped about the same time with an 8.92 ERA. (Baker was dropped a few weeks later too after rising to 6.06). In 2003, Joe Mays lasted 18 starts with a 6.57 ERA, following a 5.38 ERA in 2002. Rick Reed had 15 starts with a 5.03 ERA (~90 ERA+) at the same point. Santana didn't get a rotation spot until mid-July. I liked Santana's inning progression, but wow, that looks bad, especially for a contending team (one that was struggling to overtake the Royals at the time!).

Some teams do it. The Rays were pretty egregious with Wil Myers, and the Twins are a similarly thrifty club. So it could be a factor, although I tend to think trying to salvage a veteran or wait out a vet's contract is a bigger factor for the Twins. It definitely isn't the "sole" factor for this club. The thrift motivation is roughly the same either way, though.

I was also going to list the example of Mauer, but remind folks that was ten years ago and we haven't really had any impact prospect debuts since then. I overlooked Liriano (although they arguably got back some of that service time in 2008). Morneau is the other top prospect that springs to mind, and he was kept in AAA for awhile waiting for Dougie Baseball to have a graceful exit. That's more evidence in favor of my theory, that service time is less important to the Twins than gracefully opening a roster spot (isn't "clear path" the term that Rob Antony used recently?) Liriano's pitching a month and a half in the bullpen is another point to that (Santana too, obviously). Like I say, a delay of a month or two is pretty minor in the long scale view, but had the Twins narrowly missed the postseason in 2002-2004 or 2006, it could have been a bigger deal. Hopefully 2014 is a season where contention is an issue for awhile longer! The other guys you list -- Hicks, Arcia, you could add Gomez who actually debuted in MLB with the Mets, or Rivas/Guzman from the bad old days -- were not likely stars either, so the calculus was a little different for them. Meyer should be decent evidence as to the Twins approach, and which way they go with Sano/Buxton will obviously be strong evidence.

I agree with you that the extra year of control is important -- Boras doesn't sign away years beyond that. However, now that's past, and the debate is over the "super two" arbitration deadline. Plenty of Boras clients have signed long-term contracts buying out their arbitration seasons at reasonable rates. (Our favorite discussion topic Stephen Drew is one of them.) Basically, the super two stuff should be more or less meaningless for the Twins. I suspect that it is, but I also suspect that the Twins have other silly reasons behind keeping him down that long -- Seth acknowledges that the Twins MLB starters have been disappointing, but kinda ignores their contracts or "leashes" as factors in Meyer's call-up. It probably won't delay Meyer by more than a month or two (like Gibson, Liriano, and Santana before him), but that could easily be the biggest factor in determining his arrival date.

Twins had a pretty poor overall record with all international guys before Sano too. I think the Twins are just loathe to spend much money on "outside" players, particularly amateurs, unless it is controlled by draft, spending caps etc. That fact is just magnified by Cuba, because the only Cubans to hit the market got big contracts and bidding wars -- there weren't any cheap modest Cuban talents to snag and develop like the Twins wanted (Rivas, Rincon, etc.). Heck, given the higher profile of Cuban talents, the contracts with them are probably more fair and reputable than those involving other Latin American players (even if the road to those contracts is murky, as your link suggests).

For some reason, I always thought the no trade until June thing only applied the free agents who switched teams, but I could well be wrong. Similarly, I know there used to be some extra trade protection for guys on multi-year deals too but I think that went away.