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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. But frankly, it would have been borderline criminal for them to decide almost anything else, given the way things played out in 2013 and spring training 2014. Not sure how much credit to give them for that "correct assessment".
  2. Agreed, particularly at a low level like high-A. Maybe, MAYBE, if you manage to advance to AAA but stall, they can start playing with optimizing role deployment (helping a guy carve out at least a AAAA career, maybe a MLB bench role, and keeping your top affiliate happy). But you've got to learn to deal with A-ball off-speed stuff first. A-ball players generally don't fall back to limited roles, they fall out of baseball.
  3. And both of these guys, it should be noted, have lost starting jobs, been available as free agents, and have taken paycuts for bench roles during this time frame.
  4. Of course, if you are willing to (or even expecting to) punt a season or more, you can give guys like Florimon "another opportunity" all over your roster. Doesn't usually produce compelling baseball, though, as evidenced by the past few Twins seasons. Also, quality SS options aren't that easily obtained (or we arguably wouldn't have been running out Florimon in the first place). One or both of Hardy and Cabrera could easily be extended/expensive/hurt by next winter, then you'd be left trying to force a trade. You definitely shouldn't pass on any options, or reduce your aggressiveness in finding them, in favor of your suspect ~.600 OPS option. That said, it's not clear how much the Twins have passed on -- there were the two Cubans (Diaz and Guerrero, the former who signed very cheap, and the latter who has already debuted nicely as a 2B for the Dodgers AAA club). The Drew situation is obviously weird now, although he probably warranted at least as much aggression for this club as Ervin Santana (3/30). And despite their alleged surpluses, Arizona and Seattle (and the Dodgers?) haven't moved any infielders yet. Now, I am just hoping for a tightening of Florimon's leash, and a sizable audition for Danny Santana if he remotely warrants it -- if we're not going to go after an outside solution, we should at least figure out some part of our SS future this year. The Florimon job guarantee going into spring training and the Nunez acquisition aren't great returns on that idea so far, but it is still quite early.
  5. You're talking about three modestly successful middle relievers who were freely available to any MLB team less than 2 years earlier. You're never going to "sell high" on those -- at best, you might be able to "sell slightly higher" but the return is usually going to be pretty minimal regardless. Very few Hector Carrasco's produce even a Lew Ford -- if you force a trade, you are more likely to get Alex Presley, or Pedro Hernandez. With that level of return, if the player is inexpensive (and particularly if they have options like Fien and Thielbar), you're probably better off keeping them.
  6. Yup. Actually, June 6-18, 2013, Burton pitched 5 games and allowed 8 runs, same as 2014 so far. Actually, June 6 thru July 1 last year, he had 10 games, 12 runs. Followed it up with a stretch of 19 games, 6 hits, zero runs. (We won't discuss how he pitched after that -- suffice to say, he closed out the season in classic 2011-2013 Twins fashion. ) As to the extension, Burton's $3.25 mil isn't hurting the team in the least bit. Heck, his roster spot isn't even under that much pressure -- Tonkin is it, really, and they've already got him on the roster thanks to another guy on the DL. If his poor pitching continues over the next few weeks, we can think about cutting him loose. Otherwise, try to get him back to general 2012-2013 levels, and if he gets on a roll again, maybe someone will want a flyer on him for August/September (or 2015 with his $3.6 mil team option). Not that he will bring back much in trade, or provide us with a whole lot performance-wise in the intervening months, but it wouldn't take much to justify his modest salary.
  7. This understates the difference. Using Florimon's games played total is misleading, as Florimon left early for a pinch hitter a lot and Peralta did not. (Additionally, Florimon accumulated games faster Peralta, despite near-equal PA, due to batting 9th on a poorer hitting team.) Florimon and Peralta both played exactly 102 "complete games" in 2013, and each had 446 and 448 PAs, respectively. Either of those figures would be much more appropriate for this comparison. That takes it down to 1 extra base every 1.8 games, which is actually a pretty massive difference. If you compare Mauer to Kurt Suzuki for 2013 (prorating Suzuki's stats to Mauer's PA), Mauer only had 1 extra base every 1.9 games. Comparing prorated Hicks to Carlos Gomez in 2013, it's 1 extra base every 1.6 games. It's exactly the difference you would expect between an all-star and a scrub.
  8. If we had a interesting replacement at 2B, I would try Dozier back at SS in a second. That is another frustrating aspect to the Rosario situation.
  9. One thing to keep in mind: Gyorko put up that comparable OPS in pitcher-friendly San Diego. His OPS+ was better than Dozier's (113 vs 100 last year). And even in that pitcher-friendly park, Gyorko's raw ISO was higher than Dozier's last year, and he was actually a solid power hitter in the minors too, which doesn't mean a whole ton anymore but it does suggest his power might be a little safer to project at this point than Dozier's. Dozier basically never hit for power until June 2013.
  10. He was an infielder/catcher in college. That said, I doubt he is anything more than an emergency option at the position, which is probably what Seth meant but in my opinion really shouldn't count as depth anyway. Probably not quite as desperate emergency-wise as Escobar at catcher, but similar.
  11. I am no scout, but in addition to the numbers, it worries me that two teams in the past year have targeted Sulbaran (even if logically two teams were also willing to part with him). And if he succeeds with the Yankees, it will hurt even more.
  12. To be fair, the DFA process makes it a little confusing, because it seemingly removes him from the Yankees 40 man right away. But more accurately, it gave them an extra 40 man spot and rendered Nunez ineligibe to play until they somehow removed him from their 40 man (either trade or waivers). But yeah, logically, if he was waived, we (or someone else) would have simply claimed him, no trade necessary.
  13. I wouldn't even bother examining their workouts. It is certainly possible that Gibson becomes an ace, but it is not at all probable. Heck, he still has a ways to go to become that #3 guy.
  14. Nunez was never waived. He was DFA, giving the Yankees 10 days to trade or waive him. They chose to trade him. He is listed on the official 40 man now too: http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=min
  15. I think there are ~17,000 full season equivalent ticket holders, but that doesn't necessarily mean there are ~17,000 season tickets purchased for any individual game. Not sure if some partial plans outweigh any others, but maybe Plan A is 19,000 and Plan D is only 15,000, etc. But they try to keep the plans pretty even, so you're mostly right. If there are 17,000 season tickets, and they only drew 20,000 total yesterday, that's pretty bad regardless!
  16. I think the original poster was assuming he wouldn't be platooned right away. But in the event his 2013 platoon split continued or got worse, his strength against RHP and his SS ability should keep him useful for a while (at least thru the 2-3 years the Twins would sign him for). And certainly, if our scouts think he is permanently doomed against LHP, that should be reflected in our contract offer to him (i.e. not $12m AAV).
  17. How is the predictive power of home/road splits working out for Phil Hughes? (I know, it's very early in the season, just had to say it)
  18. What other player has changed to fit their "role", though? It's not like Pujols or Cabrera came to camp one year and decided to be a slugger, because their team needed it more. Jeter/Suzuki/etc didn't suddenly try to hit more HR when Yankee sluggers were going down last year. Players change, but it's almost 100% due to skills and health, I think (and natural variability, of course). Coaching plays a role in the development and application of the skills too. But I don't think anyone at the MLB level -- certainly nobody above Jason Bartlett level role players -- is willing themselves to be different in their mechanics because of something as silly as an amorphous "role". (That said, I would be a little disappointed if Joe has personally resisted moving out of the #3 spot in the order, when his skills look better at #2 or even #1 on this team. But evidence suggests he's at worst only a co-conspirator in that department, the team has always wanted him there.)
  19. Nick: Great parallel with Bartlett! It definitely seems like the Twins are playing more guys out of position now, which could be an interesting strategy to get opportunities and assess talent, but it's often coming across as inexplicable (and often without any apparent upside). Wasn't this the knock on Deduno before? Two other organizations let him go rather than give him a good look in the back of their pens, and I swear the Twins (or at least posters on this board) have made this point in discussing plans for Deduno over the past two seasons. That said, Deduno's in a tricky spot, as he's not nearly reliable enough to guarantee a starting spot, and we needed to acquire more starters in the offseason anyway. Should Deduno and Pelfrey have competed (or should currently be competing) for a spot? Some have thought Pelf might improve out of the pen. Correia's got pen experience. (Hughes too, for that matter.) If these trends continue for the next month or so, it could get interesting (although it will be painful to watch in the meantime!).
  20. And is it bad that I sort of enjoy the bad team, in terms of attendance and ticket demand? Pretty sweet picking up $2 tickets on the secondary market and finding a friendly usher with an empty section... and I don't feel bad about chasing my toddler around the concourse and missing a few innings at a time either. Not as fun as plentiful, cheap seats for those good teams at the Dome 2001-2009, but a decent substitute!
  21. This is true, and this may be the season low, but the trend is definitely down overall (season tickets are still down too, right?). Wouldn't be surprised to see another record low next April (or even this September) if this season's results are like the last 3 seasons.
  22. How about keep the Twins in Minneapolis, and move the Rays to St. Paul? (Actually, that would be pretty cool...)
  23. Can I add a reason to like Mauer? He chose baseball over football. (Yeah, baseball offered the more immediate payday, but he still made the choice.) Not only that, from ages 14-30 at least, he chose the most "baseball" of baseball positions: catcher. I know some have said he could have played more/longer at other positions, but you gotta admit, it's pretty cool he chose to be the unglamorous, always-crouching catcher, even long after his hitting talent would have allowed him to choose almost any other position on the field.
  24. I believe this is far less frequent that you imply. It is very difficult to perfect pitch recognition and swing mechanics -- not unlike pitcher mechanics, really. I might guess too that "great hitters" vary their approach and swings even less than mediocre hitters -- the risk of losing what works for them (and what has already made them "great") is probably greater than any possible marginal benefit. I am sure batters have different expectations based on pitcher, count, situation, etc., but that probably affects more what they look for, rather than how they swing. And for some hitters (perhaps Mauer), even what they look for and when they swing might be a necessary part of the routine to be effective. Just because Mauer is a great hitter doesn't mean he can simply will himself to be better, or even just arbitrarily trade a little OBP for SLG.
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