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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Hadn't thought about our early competitiveness and how it could impact Hicks (and Florimon). I've gotten used to the Twins writing off seasons to rebuilding lately, and 2014 looked similar even with the new SP acquisitions. If we can hang around .500 that certainly puts more pressure on the underperformers (and more pressure on the front office to replace them). Nunez and Fuld are pretty minor moves in that regard, but they do represent more April activity than the past few seasons, IIRC.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting, although it should be noted those are full careers sub-.200. What would be more interesting is how many guys began their careers with 340+ AB of sub-.200 AVG like Hicks, and where they ended up. Or more generally, how guys responded to sub-.200 rookie seasons. It was pretty easy to write off 2013 as a lost season, rushed to MLB, pressured by the leadoff spot, etc. But the small sample this year suggests that maybe Hicks just isn't much of an AVG hitter right now -- those guys exist, and unfortunately when they start their career that way, they are probably bench guys at best or are out of the league fairly quickly. But I'm all for giving players chances, in lieu of better options, and Hicks certainly has more rope.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Just announced on radio. DFA Mastroianni, so the Twins will be short a player today. Fuld will be available Tuesday in Tampa.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    And Boston fired both their manager and GM within 2 seasons.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    That said, loved Bartlett. Great find by TR back in the day, and a key part of the 2006 turnaround.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    In Presley's defense, that's a pretty gosh awful Astros lineup. Mauer might hit .250 surrounded by that lot. I wasn't so upset about losing Presley as wasting a spot on Bartlett, especially to be a backup outfielder. Did they really pass on Bonifacio because of this guy? Or the various OF on waivers at the end of spring? The fact that he retired within weeks of the Twins decision is pretty embarassing, frankly.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't feel bad for the Jays, but rather the Jays fans. It was a little painful/frustrating to watch as a fan of the winning team, so I can't imagine what it was like for Jays fans.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I missed that double yesterday, thanks. I am pretty new to "heat maps" but this suggests he has actually gotten a fair percentage of inside pitches so far in his MLB career: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/h_profile.php?player=499624&time=month&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=04/18/2014&s_type=13 More than Willingham or Plouffe, for example. He just hasn't done much with anything outside the zone, on either side of the plate: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/h_profile.php?player=499624&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&minmax=ci&var=baa&s_type=13&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=04/18/2014&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1 If he can keep a good eye and limit his K's he can be useful, just like Plouffe, but without that pull power I don't know if he'll ever be a notably above average hitter.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    On Colabello, he's still going opposite field with almost everything except grounders and pop-ups. The outfield part of his spray chart: http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=13051&type=battedball&pid2=13051&ss1=2014&se1=2014&ss2=2014&se2=2014&cht1=hangtime&cht2=battedball&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL actually closely resembles Kubel's: http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=2161&type=battedball&pid2=2161&ss1=2014&se1=2014&ss2=2014&se2=2014&cht1=hangtime&cht2=battedball&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL Love the stretch he's on, and will keep riding the hot hand, but he could probably safely settle into a PH/platoon DH/backup 1B type role in the not too distant future, if we wanted to fit Arcia and Willingham back in.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins low OBP last year was almost entirely a function of their low AVG. In 2013, they actually tied for 7th best in MLB in BB% and isolated discipline (AVG minus OBP) -- the only 4 AL teams above us were playoff teams. This year, our OBP and isolated discipline is super-high, but that's mostly fueled by an almost absurd walk rate. Our AVG is still low and very similar to last year, as is our BABIP. I expect our BB% and OBP/isolated discipline to stabilize much closer to last years numbers (BB% could drop by almost one-third and our OBP/isolated discipline .030 points and we could still lead the league in both, to give you an idea how crazy they have been so far this year). Seems like low AVG and K% were our bugaboos under Brunansky last year, and both trends seem to be continuing this year in absolute terms, although our relative ranks are somewhat improved in both categories. It will interesting to see how our numbers change if/when the league rates stabilize.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Hicks was pinch-hit for in last night's game. I don't see him moving up in the order anytime soon (nor should he). I could see Arcia optioned if Willingham gets healthy again.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Do leadoff hitters see a different distribution of pitch types? And is Dozier (and the others you mention) just really good at capitalizing on them? Certainly seems logical that players would see a different distribution of pitches batting with men on base, which seems to imply the leadoff hitter's pitches should be special too.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Glad the Twins won, but it got painful to watch after awhile... 7 BB, 3 WP, 4 R before the first hit... 8 BB, 1 H, 6 R before the first non-sacrifice out... It felt like we were playing a video game and had figured out a glitch!
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Glad we didn't sign Dioner Navarro!
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Favorite Twin: pepperoni/black olives Favorite pizza: Josmil Pinto (present), Lew Ford (past... and future?)
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed he certainly wasn't helped by the new Yankee Stadium, but that still doesn't really explain him alternating 80 and 100 ERA+ seasons for 4 years now. I'm not real comfortable explaining that away by home/road splits or confidence issues, especially when our other 3 FA starters all have similar up-and-down records. It's just kinda of inherent in that class of pitcher. Still, that means he may hit that 4.15 in his up season(s), which would certainly be helpful.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Should be, yes -- channel "668-2" according to this: http://msn.foxsports.com/north/story/fox-sports-north-plus-channel-information-011214
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    True, and he allowed both of those HR in Chicago, none in Target Field yet. But three consecutive starts of 5 IP, 4 ER, near 100 pitches each, doesn't exactly make me optimistic that he's going to wind up better than the inconsistent, inefficient 4.60 ERA starter he has been with the Yankees the past 4 seasons. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing at his price, certainly an improvement over most of our 2012-2013 starting staff -- but not the kind of piece that leads to great surplus value, or is a key contributor for a surprise contender. (A problem exacerbated by the fact the same description is likely to apply to our other 3 FA SP signings the past two offseasons.)
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    If by "a bunch of teams" you mean primarily the Mets, Astros, and Marlins, that's not good company.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Fangraphs says his career BABIP is .296, and has never been as low as .265. Career low .273 (2010). That career rate would mean about 5 fewer non-HR hits allowed in his 15 IP so far. Also, it's not really fair to suggest his high 2014 BABIP will revert to career norms, but not apply the same to his high 2014 K rate. We don't expect him to be a 10 K/9 starter, right? Finally, I am definitely not suggesting he will continue to be a 7.20 ERA pitcher... just that these early returns suggest he may be closer to the up-and-down, 4.60 ERA pitcher he was with New York, than the hidden gem many were hoping for.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't know about boxscores here, but you might enjoy B-Ref's fully sortable/customizable Recent Org Batting/Pitching feature. Twins org batting (yesterday): http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/daily.cgi?type=b&dates=yesterday&level=all&franch=MIN Twins org pitching (yesterday): http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/daily.cgi?type=p&dates=yesterday&level=all&franch=MIN
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Wasn't inconsistency Hughes' bugaboo in NY? I know 3 starts is way too early to conclude anything, but given that, the results so far shouldn't be that surprising or require explanation, right? Here are Hughes' stats by inning last year: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=hugheph01&year=2013&t=p#innng Seems like a fair amount of fluctuation there, which suggests scattered "big innings", as compared to, say, Kevin Correia: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=correke01&year=2013&t=p#innng Glancing at a couple linescores from his 2013 game logs, I see Hughes was chased from his first start during a 4 run inning, had a 7 run disaster inning in May, had a 5 run inning to begin June... (An aside: Correia was a beast last year in the 5th inning! 0.32 ERA! Maybe a new market inefficiency? )
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I know you say it's not a perfect comparison, so I won't pick on it too bad, but it's worth remembering that Iglesias is younger and was rushed through the minors much more quickly. He sucked when he jumped to AAA... but he jumped to AAA at age 21. Florimon didn't even appear in a AAA game until age 25. Iglesias only just turned 24. Also the shape of their sucking has been different. Iglesias has even less power and draws even fewer walks than Florimon, which doesn't bode well, but he has never K'd much (sometimes half Florimon's rate), which makes him a better bet for BABIP luck, or even to be the kind of "put the ball in play, advance the runner" type, bottom of the order hitter many here keep wishing Pedro would be.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    This approach would certainly make those "Where are they now?" articles much easier to write. The answer: they're all here!
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    That's true. Damning with faint praise, but true. They did write him in as the 2013 opening day starter, though (until his surgery recovery pushed his debut back).
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