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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Could be. I'm pretty sure IsoD is more consistent from year to year than batting average, among MLB players at least. Perhaps with isolated power slotting between them? It also seems logical that IsoD would be "easier" to translate from the minors to MLB too, at least compared to AVG or ISO. How much easier, I'm not sure. I too am encouraged by Hicks' IsoD history, and I hope it bounces back. I'd really like to see a genuine low K hitter come up from the minors one of these days too, although if they start hitting well otherwise I guess I don't care how much they K. Jorge Polanco looks like the next low-K guy, but he's still in A-ball.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Reading posts like this might be why Diamond seems a bit over-confident now!
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Does it? Seems like every recent Twins prospect has had real trouble in the BB% and K% departments upon hitting MLB (and some of them even in AAA). Of course, it's quite possible that most of these "prospects" were more of the AAA/AAAA variety to begin with, but it was a bit alarming to see it happen (and so severely) to Hicks and Arcia last year, two honest-to-goodness prospects. FWIW, this spring, Hicks has 2 BB vs 6 Ks in 49 PA. (And Arcia 3 BB vs 16 Ks in 53 PA.)
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Winning record? You mean .500? That seems unlikely (both the record, and the idea that Gardy would be fired for achieving anything less). If they repeat 96 losses this year, or worse, history suggests Gardy may have to (and/or want to) finally step aside. It is still hard to imagine them firing him. I wouldn't be surprised if both he and the front office want 2015 to be a successful send-off year like TK's 2001.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Former top prospect Michael Taylor didn't make Oakland's roster, is out of options, and could be available by waiver or trade: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/03/al-west-notes-harden-boesch-franklin.html He's a corner guy, but he at least filled in at CF a few times in the minors. He's always had a little pop and a solid OBP, and not too many Ks. Could be tricky if we have to get him on the 25 man roster, though, now that Bartlett and Kubel are guaranteed spots.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, on the DNR web site, I count 5 lakes named "Star Lake" in Minnesota. That's bound to happen, with 10,000+ and some uncreative namers...
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, if you factor in baserunning and defense, Bartlett was a perfectly fine starting MLB player for 5-6 seasons, before going to San Diego. 2009 was just his standout *hitting* season. That said, not sure how much baserunning/defensive value we can expect at his age and after his injury and layoff, certainly not at new and important defensive positions.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, the team absolutely sucked after his concussion too, which could also suppress one's vocal leadership tendencies. But you're right -- it's especially hard to be a vocal leader as a reduced player on a lousy team. I'm with you -- maybe his relocation will make it easier to accept his new role as a more of a complementary player, hopefully on a better team.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    That's right -- the Twins deserve some credit for timing this right so as to not lose Parmelee (or waste him in a bench spot). His 2012 suggests more potential than most of our AAA OF/1B options, so I'm glad he's still in the organization for now. And I'm no scout, but just by the numbers, Kubel could have only a modest rebound and still approach 20 HR around a 100 OPS+. He's only one year removed from 6 straight seasons better than that. That's not bad -- basically Doumit/Arcia 2013 level, and Parmelee has yet to really suggest he can reach that level -- and those kind of modest offensive seasons could be what takes this from a bottom 3 offense to more of a middle tier. Bartlett, who knows. Hypothetically, if Kubel struggled for a month-plus in 2014 and got injured/cut, then sat out 2015, then tried to come back in 2016... that's about where Bartlett is right now.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, it was only the Astros. And Presley must have passed through waivers last August to be traded to us in the first place. So it may have just been circumstance and timing that led to his claim now, rather than any truly greater value. As to the Liriano/Morneau trade returns, I wasn't crazy about them either, but really, this Twins club shouldn't have any truly difficult roster crunches. There just isn't the talent in MLB or even the upper minors yet. Doesn't really hurt to occasionally cycle through some more marginal 40-man types if you're not signing free agents to fill those spots anyway.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. And what bothers me most is not the risk that we could see too much of Bartlett in CF (although that's not a pretty proposition either), but that the Twins might force Hicks to play through injuries and fatigue when he would otherwise be rested if they had a true backup CF. Heck, it wouldn't even have to be management or coaches forcing Hicks -- Hicks could just feel the pressure and take it upon himself to keep playing (by minimizing the extent of an injury or fatigue).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty sure TR wasn't trying to give away Correia, they didn't need to clear his spot or salary. He was almost certainly looking for value back.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I was just about to post this too. Got to imagine something else in the works.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    If a team like the Twins, with ~2 decent position players under contract for 2015, is passing on free agents to hold roster spots for minor leaguers, then yes, that is counting too much on improvement through the farm system.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    You can almost always trade people if you are willing to eat salary. And if you are paying them peanuts on short term deals like Castro and Batista, you don't even have to trade them, you can just cut them. And Batista didn't really block Cuddyer -- they had already moved Cuddy off third. If you want to cite more cases, go ahead. If these are your most egregious, I don't think it's that big of an issue.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    75% shot of what, exactly? And you're already counting an as-yet-undrafted guy? I just eyeballed the top of this consensus prospect list, tossed out the rookie leaguers and Polanco, and added recent grads Pinto, Hicks, and Gibson I guess: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/3/11/5492448/2014-minnesota-twins-consensus-top-61-prospects That's nine "top" prospects. As of now, the Twins basically have about 7 of 9 lineup spots, and 3 of 5 rotation spots, unclaimed for 2016. (And that's being pretty generous to Mauer, Dozier, Nolasco, and Hughes). That's 10 starting positions to fill. Looking at it closer, I guess that means we'd have to go 9 for our top 9. And SS would still be open. I hope to goodness that this kind of projecting isn't a driving force behind our FA decision making.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    In addition to what mike said, catching is very different than other positions. You repeatedly have to catch 90+ MPH objects coming directly at you, with a batter violenty swinging a bat a few inches from your head, in a crouched position wearing bulky equipment. It's not something that you can safely get accustomed to (or re-accustomed to) at the drop of a hat. Now, if Mauer was still working with pitchers on the side or anything, that might be a little different. But why make him do that, on the off chance there's 2 innings you need him in an emergency? That's why teams basically never use any kind of starting-level player as their emergency catcher. It's just not worth the risk. It would be interesting, though, if the emergency situation arose in an elimination game... very VERY slim odds of that ever happening though, certainly for the Twins this year!
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    So what was that whole paragraph of yours about free agents considering the "scale of opportunity"? Are you conceding that it's probably a pretty negligible factor after all, especially when the internal guys expected to "occupy" several of our positions haven't played above A-ball yet? EDIT TO ADD: Also, conveniently, you just provided blanket reasons to basically never sign long-term OR short-term free agents. Unless you are historically bad at a position for several years (rotation) and your fill-in options are further away than, what, Single-A? Why did we sign Nolasco for 4+ years? We're going to need that spot for Berrios, Stewart, and Thorpe, right?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Problem is, when a guy's not going well, when he's got big hole in his swing, when for whatever reason he's not finding solutions with the coaching... you're not gaining much with a little more playing time. And Parmelee was on a 114 GS, 488 PA pace when he was sent down struggling last July (1-22, 12 K in his previous week). That's 2.5 PA per week difference from your "regular playing time" estimate. And if anything, his playing time was trending up at the time (started 15 of last 17 games). It's not like he was parked on the bench. And I don't think there is much vacillating from the Twins about Parmelee. Despite being a first round pick years back, he was a pretty slight prospect until his suprise September 2011 audition, and his 2012 Rochester campaign. He's gone the wrong way since then, both at MLB and in AAA. He's the kind of guy who, when you lack for better options, you keep him around, keep tinkering as needed, give him regular (although not necessarily "everyday") reps, either at AAA or in MLB, as opposed to parking him on the bench, and hope he turns it around. And that's exactly what they've done with him. Any vacillating is probably mostly from fans. And frankly, the above description could apply to a lot of Twins the past few years. It's a little frustrating as a fan sometimes, but this organization is clearly comfortable taking a few years to sort things out with marginal players.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    He actually got 531 PA last year. Even his 198 PA in AAA produced a .688 OPS. He's looked so lost the past two years, outside of those 62 AAA games in 2012, that I really doubt that playing time is the primary issue with him. That's not to excuse the Twins handling of him, just shift it: he's not the first recent Twins prospect to see a drop in BB rate, a spike in K rate, and a general lack of positive offensive outcomes in his transition to MLB.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Otwins: Star Lake, between Pelican Rapids and Perham? My family has been going there for years too (in my lifetime, mainly to the Galaxy Resort).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Nick: to be fair, "impact starter" is a pretty high standard. Very few teams have potential impact starters on the sidelines unless they have a near-ready top prospect. "Competent replacement" would probably be a better term, although that's still a weak point for the current Twins -- it's not at all clear that we have an MLB-caliber utility infielder, backup corner guy, or especially a 4th outfielder available at this point either.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    And you wonder why some of us look like pessimists compared to you? The Twins would basically have to go something like 7-for-8 in converting their closest position player and starting pitcher prospects into MLB starters by 2016 in order for this to be true. As good as the farm system is, that would take an incredible amount of luck, particularly when only one of the prospects in question (Pinto) has appeared above AA, and in fact only 3-4 other key prospects have even played at the AA level so far. I'm pretty sure MLB free agents aren't counting on that (particularly those signing 1 to 3 year deals, which is the vast majority), and I hope that kind of outlook isn't driving our MLB-level decision-making either.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, Santana (and Garza) are pitchers. IIRC, the only strong rumors for position players were both catchers (Salty and AJ) -- where the Twins actually have their most MLB ready prospect! To be fair, I didn't see a whole lot of strong FA position players this past offseason, especially if you throw out Drew and Morales (who knows what Boras is up to there). But there have been a few who signed short reasonable deals and who could have at least provided more competition/depth (and greater potential returns than Kubel/Bartlett).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    They might only be better in a "haven't had a chance to fail yet" way. And I say that as I endorse the cutting of Worley and Diamond.
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