Otto von Ballpark

I am willing to bet Meyer is not next in line, not yet. He isn't on the 40 man yet, and he hasn't even pitched at AAA yet either. It is probably Deduno (if he is stretched out enough for it) and then Johnson.

They are in a tough spot with Parmelee. He hasn't been worth anything to the MLB Twins the past two seasons, they probably think he won't really ever be a MLB hitter, but at the same time, because he's out of options, even if another team thought he had potential, they're not going to trade for him -- they'll just take their chances if he hits waivers. So the Twins choices are: keep a poor player around hoping for something unexpected, or move on and waive him and hope he slips through to help Rochester. I can't really fault them for thinking the latter (again, as long as they're not just replacing him with equally hopeless filler like Bartlett).

Kubel has to be more likely to have any success in MLB, though, right? And that could be a modest trade chip for the Twins. Nothing earth-shattering in performance or trade, of course, but something more than a 84 OPS+ corner OF/1B.

Parmelee isn't exactly Garrett Jones here (only 84 PA with the Twins, although different age and minor league resume). Parm's had 631 MLB PA so far, and hasn't shown anything at all in the last 540 (84 OPS+, zero standout skills). If we let guys like this rack up consecutive 500 PA seasons, fans would probably be criticizing the front office for not realizing the guy couldn't hit earlier and wasting time with him. That said, if we lose him at this point, it will hopefully be in favor of someone with better MLB chances, not just some random roster patch (i.e. not Bartlett!).

Worth remembering that Worley's "two seasons" of success in Philadelphia were actually both partial seasons, only about 130 IP each. And the last half of his 2nd partial season for Philly was pretty mediocre (65 IP, 5.68 ERA, 6.4 K/9) so his real run of quality MLB pitching was only about 1 full season. And he really didn't have that great of a K rate in the minors either -- his 2011 season (and early 2012) was really a standout in that regard. The Phillies have a very good recent track record with pitching -- none of Happ, Worley, or Kendrick were ever that highly regarded or "top 100" prospects, but I'll be darned if they didn't all become roughly league average starters in MLB (not an easy thing to do). And the Phillies successfully sold high on both Happ & Worley, and gotten some cheap innings eaten by Kendrick the last few years.

Bill Pohlad does produce Hollywood movies... maybe Worley will be indirectly responsible for funding the sequel "Another 12 Years a Slave"

Quick link to Twins 2013 SP fWAR: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0 It would be hard for Pelf or Correia to improve on those 2013 fWAR figures, same with Deduno and whoever replaces Albers as a fill-in, and that's nearly 3/5 of the rotation right there. How it all translates to rWAR, I don't know. Does B-Ref have a nice table of SP only WAR by team, like this? http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Would be great to get some context around that -3 rWAR total...

That was in response to Jokin, who was using fWAR. Twins starters had 4.6 fWAR last year, and Jokin posited a mean-type projection of around 12. Hence the +8. 12 fWAR from SP would be 2013 Royals, Reds, Pirates, White Sox, Rays, Athletics territory. Very good starting staffs, all. I think that's clearly best case for the 2014 Twins SP.

Finally, I don't believe this staff or team will be the worst of the last 4 years. Even with a mostly stagnant offense, I think they should improve by a couple games as a mean projection, maybe they creep into the low 70's win range with some good fortune. It's probably more likely they lose 100 than win 81, however -- the starting staff is still full of high-variability guys with modest upsides (a couple coming off low ebbs on their variability), and we all know the sorry state of the offense.

Perhaps I wasn't clear again. That's a common problem for me. I invoked the 2013 starter list specifically as a response to Jokin's 2014 projections, not to compare the pitchers themselves, but to show an example of how you cannot project a group by going through the list and assigning good but not great outcomes to each one. There are bad outcomes, injury and ineffectiveness, and they happen to virtually every team, all the time. I agree the 2012-2013 Twins had more bad outcomes than most, but that doesn't mean the 2014 Twins will be devoid of such outcomes. They should be improved. But this is nowhere near a league average starting staff unless we get a lot of luck.

Might just be a favor to Bartlett. Keeps him in a few games, and maybe some other scout sees something they like or an injury opens up an opportunity elsewhere. Maybe if he doesn't get an offer by then, he reconsiders and goes to Rochester or even joins the organization as a coach.

Scouting and evaluation isn't just about finding talent. Sometimes it means spotting a lack of talent or potential, and when it is especially clear-cut, you may as well act decisively. The Twins can't keep every pitcher they think has a 1% chance of putting it together someday. If they're not happy here, it probably even lowers those slim odds further. It's just not a good use of resources (Rochester roster spot, coaching attention, etc.). Just like they can't instantly give 1000 MLB AB to every AAAA hitter they've had, either.

Detroit's ballpark is rated as hitter friendly right now, and Tampa's is just the opposite. So it's harder (and more valuable) for Detroit pitchers to achieve the same ERA. I'd guess that's a big factor. Tampa is also generally regarded as having better defenders too, which makes it easier for their pitchers to achieve a lower ERA. See here for other factors: http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_pitch.shtml And as Chief mentioned, FanGraphs uses FIP instead of ERA for their WAR calculations (fWAR). Detroit's pitchers had better peripherals last year, so that's probably another factor in their fWAR favor.

Perhaps you missed my point about the Royals. They had a massive turnaround, but they needed two super durable ace level performances, plus another 200 IP, 100 ERA+ guy to do it because A) almost every pitching staff suffers some injuries, and almost every pitching staff will have some underperformers in any given year. Your forecast of the Twins top 7 to all be healthy and have zero underperformers is highly unlikely, even if none of the individual forecasts seem all that crazy. That's just not a reliable way to predict things in aggregate. (It might be part of the reason for your dissatisfaction with ZiPS too -- quantitative mean projection systems mostly have to work in the aggregate, young guys improve and older guys decline -- there's just no way you can quantitatively predict certain mean results, like a non-elite prospect with 70 IP above A-ball tearing up MLB in his first go-around.) Remember last spring? A common refrain around here was - Worley and Correia can repeat their modest 2012 numbers - Pelfrey can rebound to his modest career averages - Deduno can be an effective fill-in - Gibson comes up midseason and pitches effectively, maybe even Meyer or May by season's end - Diamond can even regress a bit from 2012, and we will still have a nice deep average starting rotation! And anything we get from Hendriks, Hernandez, or Walters will just be a bonus! See what I did there? All of those things seem perfectly reasonable, and in fact some of those things actually happened (or even exceeded those marks), yet the staff as a whole still struggled. Now, we're probably not that far apart. I certainly believe the 2014 staff will be better than 2013. Near league average, +8 wins from SP alone is a best-case scenario, however. Part of the reason Hughes and Pelfrey came so cheap (and Nolasco signed early, and Correia signed cheap last year) is the inconsistency and volatility of their performances. If signing a handful of guys like this gave you a mean projection of a league average staff, the Twins would have "fixed" the staff long ago, and in fact no one would ever have staffs as bad as the Twins recent ones.

At least by ERA, league average last year was 4.15. It's actually better than jokin's too-rosy estimate. That would require dramatic 2013 Royals style improvement. Median ERA was 3.99, an even more difficult achievement. When it all shakes down, Baltimore's 2013 staff isn't a bad target. No standout aces or special durability guys among the group, just a decent collection of pitchers, a few injuries, 4.57 SP ERA (albeit in a hitter's park?) was 12th in the league, 58 more IP and 40 fewer R than Twins SP. Of course, the reason Baltimore was a contender was their offense ranking #4 in runs scored (and #1 in HR). Still, such a staff gives us potential to be more of a run-of-the-mill bad team, rather than a truly awful squad. Baby steps!

Unless it deals with stadium demands, or public figures in legal-type trouble, does this really matter? It's not real "news" anyway -- it's all for entertainment.

I'm with diehard. This won't go anywhere (if indeed he files). He's only played 62 games at AAA, and didn't have much of a spring. While no fault of his own, there's really no objective evidence at this point that he belongs in MLB immediately, which is what it would take to win such a grievance. Also, even if he signed the 7 year contract last fall, he still could have been optioned to the minors this spring -- he just would have made a lot more money doing it (although there would have been no service-time benefit to Astros in doing so). It's no different than how guys used to sign "major league" deals out of the draft -- it put them on 40 man, but not necessarily the 25 man.

I know it's just spring training stats, but this worries me too. Arcia saw his K rate skyrocket in 2013, and it's almost exactly the same this spring. Actually, aside from Hicks, the whole team seems to be carrying over that K bug from 2013. Even Mauer. That's one of the reasons I was excited about Danny Santana -- while he doesn't draw walks, the guy seemed to really cut his Ks last year, and they stayed down this spring while he hit pretty well (admitted against mostly minor league competition).

Not true! There is 4 in 9 odds that the injury would affect one of our current number 9 hitters, in which case the quantity of number 9 hitters stays constant with his replacement. It's one of the benefits of having so many number 9 hitters in your lineup!

A systematic contract year boost has been proven to be mostly fiction, right? Plus, how did Correia do in his previous two "contract years"? Your projections: +109 IP, -1.00 ERA, +7.4 fWAR Royals SP, 2012 to 2013: +97 IP, -1.14 ERA, +4 fWAR The 2013 Royals SP turnaround was one of the most dramatic in recent memory, featuring the addition of TWO near-peak performances by two of the most durable SP in the game today (Shields and Santana), PLUS a full season from Guthrie, and also a great half-season renaissance from Bruce Chen too. You expect the 2014 Twins to basically match that IP/ERA improvement, and double the fWAR improvement? And that's not a rosy, best case forecast? Also, you have 6 starters making 20+ starts, with a 4.50 or less ERA. Since 1985, only the 2012 Phillies (another pretty good starting staff) had 6 20+ GS starters with ERAs even under 5. The Twins franchise has never had 6 20+ GS starters in a season, period. Furthermore, you project every single one of those starters to beat his career ERA in 2014. (Although admittedly some are probably closer by ERA+, given league-wide trends in scoring.) While individual best cases may be even better than the numbers you posted, calling this anything other than a best case scenario from a team perspective is highly misleading, and it's not terribly different from similar exercises performed before the 2013 season (5 out of 7 names are even the same!). A far more likely team outcome includes more starts missed to injury, and at least one or two SP whose performance falters (or in the case of Pelfrey/Hughes/Gibson, fails to rebound). Still should be better than 2012-2013, largely thanks to Nolasco's stability and perhaps Meyer's upside, but probably not +8 wins better as a mean projection. Not saying +8 isn't possible, but it's the team best-case scenario, no matter how you divvy up the individual performances.

Out of curiosity, I found a few other over/under lines from different sportsbooks: 71, 69, and 65.5 in addition to the 70.5 mentioned on this thread. (The 65.5 also carried a "-115u" note, which means you would win less money taking the under. Talk about pessimists!) FWIW, I think all of these odds were posted before Sano's injury too. To be honest, between that, Rosario's suspension, and Meyer getting pushed back by his injury last year, a considerable amount of wind has left my 2014 opening day sails, even if they wouldn't have factored in the W/L record that much anyway. We should still be better this year, but we're definitely still more "old look" than "new look" Twins.

I know this is a joke, but the Blue Jays actually exercised a 2014 option for DeRosa, but he chose to retire and become a broadcaster. Wonder if we'd have to trade something to Toronto for him. Assuming that, are you volunteering to visit DeRosa at his home and convince him to come back, Favre-style?

Mauer is the elephant in the room that no one seems to be talking about. Dude is still coming back from a concussion, and he's not getting younger. Would not be surprised to see him fall short of his recent performance, which would be another difference the 2014 would have to make up.

Meyer excites me too, but he's going to be on an innings limit, no? That, plus the veteran SP under contract, I feel like best case, Meyer gets Gibson 2013 treatment (10 GS).

I guess that's the silver lining on being so bad in 2013. On the other hand, 3 of our 5 projected starters need to significantly improve over 2013 even to reach that modest "below average" point. And the other 2 projected starters have multiple recent seasons below average too. It still has to rank as one of the worst rotations in baseball, right? That fits with the Vegas 70.5 forecast too. And you could improve the rotation to that mediocre level and still lose ~96 games just on offensive/defensive stagnation, or even just Pythag (un)luck. Nothing catastrophic needed.