Jump to content
Our first free agents ranking has launched, click here to see the top 40+ names in free agency! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,669

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    74

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    The top White Sox prospect on the list is the Cuban Jose Abreu, the next one is Erik Johnson who has already had an impressive MLB debut. Then its 3B Matt Davidson, who was just acquired from Arizona and has been a top 100 prospect every year of his pro career thus far, and finally Marcus Semien, a 6th round pick from 2011 who has rocketed thru the system, showing a solid bat while playing SS, 2B, and 3B. Those all seem pretty reasonable (and to White Sox detractors, note that outside of the Cuban Abreu, all of them have already debuted in MLB).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Just noticed that BA ranks Buxton #1 and Tanaka #5. Got me wondering: if MLB declared Buxton a free agent today (say, it was discovered that Terry Ryan tendered his contract late in 2012 ), what kind of contract could he get?
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I know the "second baseman cliff" seems like gospel now, but I've seen some more recent data that suggests it is exaggerated based on a few high profile cases: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-will-chase-utley-age/ Here's a 2005 look at the issue: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?%20articleid=4464 If there is an effect, it's not as large as you suggest. Some middle infielders can't shift to a corner as their skills decline, I guess, but otherwise, I don't think middle infielders actually fall off cliffs more than other players. If you can link a study otherwise, we can discuss that tangent further. And we're not talking a Barry Zito type forever commitment here -- the absolute max I've seen suggested here is 3 years (through age 33) at $10 mil annually. For this team, with this payroll and future obligations, that is quite easily an affordable bet if you like the player now. Certainly very far from "pass because of Bill James study". Another discussion of aging curves: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/do_2b_age_worse_than_the_typical_position/
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, while Drew was dumped at the low point of his recovery by the D-Backs, and his option declined by perpetually cash strapped Oakland, he signed for basically the exact same amount to take a starting job with a big media market contending team. (Drew actually made MORE money in 2013, with the buyout + his Boston salary, than if Arizona or Oakland had picked up his option.) I think that might be better evidence of Drew's regard in baseball, and his baseball playing abilities, than some fairly empty comments about his rehab by a mouthy owner.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Here's the Diamondbacks owner quotes about Drew: On Drew: "I'm going to be real direct about Stephen. I think Stephen should have been out there playing before now, frankly. I, for one, am disappointed. I'm going to be real candid and say Stephen and his representatives are more focused on where Stephen is going to be a year from now than on going out and supporting the team that's paying his salary." What can you do?: "All you can do is hope that the player is treating the situation with integrity. Frankly, we have our concerns." Have you talked to Drew?: "I have not, really, I don't think it's my place to do so, but others have." How did Drew respond?: "I think he (long pause) was not very direct. He needs more time to get ready. I'm speaking from his perspective." Read more: http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diamondbacks/articles/2012/06/06/20120606arizona-diamondbacks-ken-kendrick-comments-justin-upton-stephen-drew-transcript.html#ixzz2tsEBOysj Seems pretty weak to hold that against the player. Especially when the same owner, and same front office and field staff, has talked of multiple other players (i.e. Justin Upton) in almost the same way. If anything, this tells me more about the Diamondbacks org than it does any particular player.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Seemed like the best thread for this news: Orioles sign Ubaldo Jimenez, 4 years, $50 million http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/02/orioles-to-sign-ubaldo-jimenez.html On lower-end depth guys: The Orioles also recently signed Suk-Min Yoon for 3 years, ~$5.5 mil guaranteed (plus up to $8 mil in total incentives). Elsewhere, the Dodgers signed Paul Maholm for 1 year, $1.5 mil plus $5 mil incentives, and Erik Bedard just signed a minor league deal with Tampa.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I am pretty sure this is just posturing. They are a year away from that decision, and Ryan is on the roster, what are they supposed to say? "No, we don't think our guy can start. We need to sign or trade for someone else within 12 months." Not a good negotiating strategy... It does highlight one of the pitfalls of taking one more look at Florimon: there will always be other teams looking to sign or trade for shortstops (or extending their own). In any given year, especially a year when the Yankees are looking for that position, we may not even have the opportunity to get someone. So even if Drew isn't perfect, and/or signing him isn't an urgent priority for 2014, he could at least mitigate the possibility of getting shut out next offseason, or the following one. (Although I understand most anti-Drew folks are also pro-Florimon, and think Pedro could mitigate that possibility too.)
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    This would be pretty cool. I imagine it could simply be an unattended webcam feed (like the one advertised during Target Field's construction). Put it behind home plate, up in the press box, on the main field. Audio would be nice too.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I read it that way too. Basically, he's not losing the job because of the injury. Doesn't mean he couldn't lose it due to something else, or a confluence of factors, of which the injury might be one. Seems like an obvious thing to say, but most manager/GM media quotes are pretty obvious things to say. Then again, my interpretation might be wishful thinking. As much as we might not like it, it's clearly Florimon's job to lose right now, and he doesn't lose it from a two-week injury.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, it's not all about prospects, though. The Brewers are starting with a much higher MLB talent base. Braun, Gomez, Segura, Lucroy, plus a few other position players, and Lohse, Garza, and Gallardo could easily be better than any Twins starting pitcher. Your Twins 2016 value list is basically 100% prospects right now, most of whom haven't appeared above AA yet. And most of them, as much as we might like them, aren't elite. "Rosario, Santana, Polanco, and Kepler"? Realistically, we might be lucky to get one MLB regular out of that group. The outlook might be worse for the guys you actually label "2nd tier". I'm not saying the Brewers are going to win the World Series or even their division, and they do need to shore up their minor leagues, but they have actual MLB-level evidence that they should compete, in 2014, 2015, and even 2016. Can't yet say the same for the Twins.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Too early to be skeptical? I am not saying cut the guy or anything. Just that we shouldn't hold back on another potential SS solution waiting for the guy.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I know nothing about Diaz, and I probably couldn't even pick Drew out of a police lineup, but it would be great to see some effort put into filling the shortstop position. As I've painfully learned as a homeowner, once you know there's a problem, the longer you wait to fix it, the more likely it won't get fixed (or the more likely you will have to pay more for a fix on shorter notice). I'm a realist, and I know the Twins aren't likely to contend in 2014, so throwing Florimon/Escobar out there again isn't the end of the world. But passing on potentially better options now does make it less likely that we will acquire one before 2015. (Same for 2016 and Danny Santana, I suppose, if you share my skepticism about him.)
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    http://minorleaguecentral.com/player?pid=548384&split=3000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=raley-001bro&type=pgl&year=2013#pitching_splits_milb_pbp::none
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I do not recall the Twins ever doing that before (grabbing a guy off waivers, then sending him back through right away).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I recall "bilateral leg strengh" was often cited at the time as the reason behind his success.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Someone should inform Hicks that a discussion about him also included a discussion about Mickey Mantle. That should be a confidence boost!
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the chances of 2009 Mauer returning have finally been deflated, along with the Metrodome roof. Still a very good player, of course.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Livan was a Bill Smith signing, and I am pretty sure he was a January signing.... And in 15 years, when the rotting shell of Rondell White is one of your most notable free agent signings, no, I do not think one has honestly participated in the free agent market.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Twinsfan34, Milwaukee was a 76 pythag win team last year, versus the Twins 61 pythag wins. That is a 15 win difference. Perhaps +20 was too generous, but they will be getting Braun back, hopefully Aramis Ramirez too, and they signed Garza and Reynolds to fill their 2 biggest remaining holes. Still, 15 wins can be the difference between contending and not, and it is still a big gap for the Twins to overcome (or reverse, as an earlier post suggested) in just 3 years.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I just think there is a world of difference between getting a cup of coffee as a fill-in or bench guy then getting sent down, like Span and Cuddy, and being given a starting job, failing, and getting demoted like Dozier and Hicks. The two situations aren't at all similar from a player performance standpoint.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    A few trips between AAA and MLB does not mean the guy had a false start or stumbled. After his 20 PA cup of coffee, Cuddyer was a league average MLB hitter. Span was above average after his first 30 PA month.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    TR had never really actively participated in the FA market before. I guess that gets interpreted as indefinite waiting!
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    True. But as you allude to, it was kind of an obvious, consensus move. Only for the Twins would drafting the young high ceiling guy for slot money, while in the early stages of a rebuilding process, be called a "gamble". I call it "not doing something stupid". I feel like the same view creeps into MLB transactions too, so TR gets credit for being aggressive when he... pays market rates to add modest pitchers to a historically bad starting staff. I was glad to see the "record" FA contracts too but it was the minimum that he had to do, really. Drafting Stewart (and Buxton) were kind of the same thing. Still, very excited to have Stewart in the organization!
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Span and Cuddyer? That's a pretty wide definition of "false start" or "stumbling". Both of those guys were league-average or better hitters after, at most, 20-30 MLB plate appearances. Dozier is obviously the better comp -- basically, you've got to have a disastrous first MLB season (and a fairly disastrous first AAA season makes the comp even better). Unfortunately for Hicks, Dozier's rebound is definitely in the minority among such players...
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    John, it was the draft. The "opportunity" was we were 4th on the board and he was the consensus 4th pick, and we "gambled" roughly the same amount on Stewart that we committed to pay Jamey Carroll for one season (a rebuilding season, no less). MLB draft picks are rarely risks or gambles, particularly now with a hard slotting system. Just tests of how discerning are your scouting eyes, really.
×
×
  • Create New...