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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    So if Antony did not fully appreciate the full extent of TR's job until he had to do it all himself on relatively short notice, it doesn't mean he lacks ambition or hasn't been adequately "groomed" so far. That's all I meant.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, Antony actually said "probably didn't notice" and again, yours seems like a too-literal interpretation. "Probably didn't notice" could mean "I had no idea" or "I gave it no thought" but it could reasonably mean "I didn't appreciate the extent of". Now, if Antony really is being groomed to take over for TR within the next year or two, I would be worried too, but not so much about this quote. More about his general background and memory of the Bill Smith experience...
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Thrylos, not sure where you get your stats, but B-Ref has Suzuki with 3 GS so far, Fryer with 2, and Pinto with 1: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2014.shtml Pinto also has the fewest PAs of that group. I agree it's very early, but I think it's been pretty clear from a variety of sources that Suzuki is viewed as the primary starting catcher on this team, and we can safely infer that Pinto won't be a backup (or DH). So Pinto indeed may not get a "fair shake" this spring.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I notice when, asked about the 5th starter spot, he talked about Worley, Diamond, and Deduno, and then said "those are the three guys" before mentioning Gibson and Johnson. "Those are the three guys" seems to suggest that barring injury, Gibson is ticketed for AAA, no?
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you might be reading too much into it. He's probably fishing a little bit for things he can share with a reporter, and he related that observation. He very well has thought about those aspects of the job before, maybe even done them with TR to some extent, but they are probably quite different when you actually have to do them yourself (solo) for the first time.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Harden's salary was minimal -- like Santana, the reported value of his contract was contingent on him reaching MLB. The $3 mil base if he makes MLB seems steep, but maybe he is closer than most of us think?
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, getting claimed is not too bad. They continue getting higher pay while in DFA limbo and for staying on the 40 man. In season, they could stand to quicken the process, and maybe ensure a little bonus to cover the player's expenses, but changing the rules as you suggest would make the player LESS likely to be claimed, and more likely to be removed from the 40 man, receive a lower salary, and be further away from returning to MLB. Go ahead and ask Burnett or Hendriks if they would have preferred getting outrighted to AAA by their original team, instead of claimed by other teams.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Is this a prediction? Benson was claimed by Texas, then signed with the Marlins in the offseason.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Back in 2008, we sent them Brian Bass too.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Jim Thome Delmon Young Luis Ayala Steve Tolleson (didn't make MLB with Twins, though) Steve Pearce (didn't make it out of spring training with the Twins)
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Just to clarify, that's $3 monthly, or $20 for the season. Definitely some cool bonuses to the app, though -- particularly MLB.tv Game of the Day. MLB.tv is a great value too - $110-$130 for the season. No Twins video, though, if you are in the blackout area, unless you get a proxy....
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Most block it, but not all. If you're adventurous, you can try the stations listed here: http://www.freebaseballradio.com/Minnesota.html Or you can just pony up for Gameday Audio...
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    That's a lot of money (albeit conditional on him making the MLB roster). Interesting that they say it includes an "invitation to major league spring training" -- he's not nearly ready for that yet, is he? Although the May 20th opt-out date seems pretty aggressive.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Not that it looks like he will make an impact anywhere in 2014, but I am curious what offers were there for him. Just based on his history with the club, I think I would have offered him the Rich Harden deal (minor league contract, $1 million base if he makes MLB). I guess Baltimore is a contender, but Minnesota would probably offer a better opportunity to make the club.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Fortunately for Liam, his DFA action has all been in the offseason (thus far). Outside of a mini camp and fan fest he attended in his brief time with the Orioles, everything has been a "paper" transaction, so no moving, traveling, etc. Hopefully he finds a home in Toronto and his DFA merry-go-round doesn't extend into the season, like Alex Burnett last year.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Arcia played 10 games at AAA before he became our second best hitter (admittedly a low bar last year ). And he hadn't even turned 22. What number of games is a 25 year old player required to play in AAA before he can be promoted? Why not just let him compete for the job this spring? Shouldn't our front office and coaches be able to identify and avoid a potential 2012 Dozier or 2013 Hicks without arbitrarily assigning levels based on games played?
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you are thinking of OBP.... batting average, while not the most overrated stat, only tells you *some* of the times a player didn't make an out.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting that Drew's negative UZR is almost entirely 2008 and earlier, though (his first 2.5 seasons). He's been solidly positive UZR 4 of the last 5 years, with the only exception being his 2012 recovery year. His UZR/150 rates during that time actually beat Florimon's 2013 rate (which is another data point which make me question whether Florimon is any kind of special defender at short or merely an average one). I wasn't using 2013 as Drew's baseline. I was using rWAR (B-Ref WAR), and if you toss out 2012 and prorate 2011 for the ankle, Drew has 3+ rWAR every season after 2007. Although even by fWAR (Fangraphs WAR), if you prorate 2011, Drew is likewise 3+ WAR every year after 2009, and twice was 4+ (prorating 2013). If I am reading Fangraphs correctly, he's cumulatively above *average* (not just replacement) on both sides of the ball after 2007, even before a positional adjustment. I wouldn't necessarily pay Drew like he's a guaranteed 3+ WAR player, but then again, 2/20 or even 3/30 isn't paying him like he's a guaranteed 3+ WAR player.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I just think you're underestimating the established difference between the two players -- they are 3 years apart, but Drew is starting from a much higher baseline (by rWAR, anyway***). Decline from Drew and improvement from Hughes might make up the difference, but in no way is it likely or a safe bet that Hughes will blow Drew away in that regard. Heck, Hughes is going to need significant improvement to even get back up to 2 rWAR after his poor 2013 showing. I actually like them both, and think they warrant similar consideration and investment from the Twins. *** Why doesn't fWAR like Drew as much? Looks like they might not like his defense...?
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Definitely agreed. I approve of the Hughes signing, and I'd probably be in on Drew too (assuming reports of his ~3/30 demands are accurate). When you consider performance as well as age, they are actually not dissimilar moves.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not offended by some Fryer love -- he's my irrational favorite Twin now, and he may be a low average guy, but he at least draws some walks and has enough power to keep pitchers honest. Career .762 OPS in the minors, was .704 at AAA last year despite a .215 AVG. With defense, he could become a perfectly acceptable MLB backup. By comparison, Butera was a .607 OPS minor leaguer, with a .561 at AAA. Almost regardless of his defensive rep, it was borderline criminal for him to be the extent of our catching depth behind Mauer. We're agreed on Pinto, though. No reason Suzuki has to be the starter, even to open the season.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I think this proposal speaks to why signing FA like Drew is a good play for the Twins right now. We don't really have extra assets anywhere that we can afford to deal. We need good luck with most of our current youngsters PLUS a few more pieces.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    For a non-elite player, the extra year of control is actually of pretty minimal value. If he's good enough to be worth his arbitration salary in that extra year, odds are he will sign a long-term contract much earlier covering that year anyway.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Sometimes, I think "upside" isn't always a good thing. Hughes only has "upside" because he hasn't achieved the performance level that Drew has, even as recently as last year. Only the broken ankle in 2011 and rehab in 2012 interrupts Drew's streak of five straight 3+ rWAR seasons. Hughes has two 2 rWAR season as a starter, non-consecutive, and fell well short of that level in 2013. (For those that don't like WAR for pitchers, I don't think Hughes fares too well by other measures either -- his fWAR tops out at 2.5, and his IP in particularly seem strikingly low in his full seasons starting.) True, Drew is 3 years older, but even after applying his standard positional aging curve, Drew could easily top Hughes' career high rWAR for the next few seasons. I'm not knocking the Hughes deal. I just fail to see how, for a team with similar deficiencies at both spots, a deal for one of these guys is smart but a similar deal for the other is dumb. EDIT TO ADD: Put another way, what's more likely: a 28 year old equalling or exceeding his career best performance, or a 31 year old continuing his 5 year established performance minus his standard positional aging curve?
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Does anybody else feel a little guilty about sending Pinto back to AAA? If catcher careers are shorter and more volatile than other positions (witness our two catchers who more or less quit catching last season), every day Pinto's not in MLB at this point doesn't help his financial outlook. I don't know what his original signing bonus was, but it probably wasn't much -- I don't recall him being a well-known international prospect. And he's been making minor league wages since. Heck, for the talk of his winter ball shoulder issue, he probably has to play winter ball just to make ends meet (and if he's catching during winter ball, that just adds to the risk). Maybe I've been thinking too much about that lawsuit by the minor leaguers recently... but I'm inclined to let Pinto play in MLB now. He's not young anymore, and he's hit at every level. It just doesn't seem to right to send him down for further refinement (while we conveniently pause his service time clock). Suzuki can spell him a few days a week, and he and the MLB pitchers can probably provide Pinto with more mentorship than their AAA counterparts.
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