Otto von Ballpark

Phillips is actually an interesting comp for Dozier. Struggled big time in his MLB debut (albeit at age 22), busted out with 30 HR (and 32 SB) at age 26, bought out his arb years plus a FA year for 4/27, stabilized around a 105 OPS+ during that time with plus defense. The guy I keep thinking of is Dan Uggla, who had an under-the-radar late debut like Dozier (although a better minor league history of power hitting). Uggla was less of a 2B but more of a traditional hitter (116 OPS+ hitter through his pre-FA years, peaking around 130). I don't know if either guy ever drew much high-impact trade interest -- Uggla played 5 seasons with the trade-happy Marlins, and was ultimately dealt for a middle reliever and Omar Infante. Suggests we're better off rolling the dice on Dozer for the next 4-5 years, taking the good performance if he can keep it up, not costing much money if he doesn't, and possibly trading him only once we have an actual surplus at the position (i.e. closer than rookie league and A-ball).

Have you checked Plouffe's numbers lately? His AVG, SLG, and K rate all seem perfectly consistent with years past. His OBP is about .010 higher than last year, but mostly thanks to April (isolated discipline .058 since May 1st, was .062 from 2011-2013). And he's starting to get more expensive, $2.35 mil this year as a Super-2 player. Given his starting history, he's probably on his way to $3-4 mil arbitration awards the next few years, regardless of his future role. Which we can obviously afford, but it doesn't look like that's a particularly great value for what would essentially be a 90-100 OPS+ corner player. (If he could backup middle IF again, it could be a different story!) If his defense really is average or better at third, he might have more value in trade if someone else sees him as a viable 3B patch.

Well, the White Sox don't have a probable listed for this Saturday yet, nor the Indians on Sunday, that would explain the absence of their future probables. I notice Cleveland has a doubleheader Saturday which will need to be addressed, and road teams tend to wait longer to announce these things too. And once there is an open/TBD start, the probables for that team seem to stop. ESPN limits their league probables date selection to a week, so even in normal times, it's probably not too reliable beyond that? Interesting they project Nolasco to return from the DL as soon as he is eligible -- have I missed any announcement on that? I supposed ESPN can't guess Pino for that spot since he's off the roster, but I'd probably leave current DL guys off the probables projections and just say TBD unless I had specific info otherwise.

Over Fuld, yes Span is an upgrade. Span has done that (or better) consistently over 7 seasons, near 4000 PA. Fuld's got 150 PA at his current level. Plus, Span is 2 years younger than Fuld. Santana might be able to stabilize at a similar offensive level (95 OPS+), but he has limited experience in CF and might be needed more at SS very soon. All three could be useful parts of next year's roster.

Define "younger days"? Morneau got married in 2009 and had his first kid in 2010 -- those events are sure to change anyone's personality, particularly that of a talented young male athlete. (Although he certainly has faced some new professional challenges since 2010 too.)

I think those are just extrapolated placeholders, particularly if they extend to a week from Saturday! The Twins official site lists nothing beyond this upcoming weekend: http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/ticketing/singlegame.jsp?c_id=min

Got to go with Jose Bautista, Lord of Target Field.

I generally agree with you, but Hendriks and Parmelee aren't great examples. Both of those guys debuted at ages 22-23 in September 2011 after little or no time in AAA, and opened the next season in MLB too. I prefer not to yo-yo guys quite so much as what followed in 2012, but generally I think these guys got timely chances commensurate with their prospect status. (Both were first aggressively promoted in 2011 under the Bill Smith regime -- I do wonder if part of the yo-yo effect in 2012+ was TR torn between his traditional prospect conservatism vs. honoring the Smith promotions?) Gibson was kept in AAA maybe a month too long, I suppose; annoying at the time but not a big deal in the end. (His 2014 season does illustrate a problem with demanding "consistency" as a condition for promotion -- many players, even good MLB ones, are not all that consistent.) Meyer and May are already 3 weeks past Gibson's promotion schedule, so hopefully they are up soon, with an adequate chance to perform before next season.

That's true. But would a Thursday appearance by Pino preclude him from a possible MLB start on Monday? Do they go back to Johnson for that one? Deduno? Pino seems like the most interesting non-Meyer option for Monday.

That's pitch to contact, par excellence! He'll be in the 2nd half Twins rotation for sure!

Same 5 Twins names as in the Fangraphs midseason top 25. Stewart is the one who is notably lower for Sickels (although he was only #64 on Sickels preseason list too).

May would need to start Thursday to be rested for a Tuesday debut. OTOH, if Pino starts for Rochester AFTER Thursday, he won't be rested enough for a Tuesday MLB start either. Although I think he would be eligible to be recalled for the Monday MLB start, assuming he doesn't start for Rochester in the meantime. Nolasco would be eligible to return Tuesday too.

Obviously, 5 of any top 25 is pretty good in a league with 30 teams! But do remember that midseason lists do not correlate with more commonly reference offseason top 100 lists. From the linked post: "Any prospect-eligible player currently in the Majors was not considered for this list, including Oscar Taveras (Cardinals), Marcus Stroman (Blue Jays) and Mookie Betts (Red Sox). Any amateur turning pro in 2014 was also not included." Also, our top 2 on this last have actually fallen from their preseason rankings (mostly a function of either barely swinging a bat so far). Meyer seems to have fallen in relative terms too, adjusting for list graduates. Stewart has probably more or less held his preseason spot. Berrios is the real story here so far. Hopefully his fast climb up the prospect charts bodes well for a fast climb futher up the org ladder!

On the general subject of Correia, he seems like an OK dude, but I guess a couple things colored my perception of him before he even became a Twin: 1) He was an undeserved all-star in 2011. He lucked into a 11-7 record with ~93 ERA+ for the Pirates at the 2011 break. And he wasn't even one of those lovable token selections like Ron Coomer, as the Pirates also had McCutchen and Hanrahan on the team. He was just a poor (and in hindsight unnecessary) replacement for Cole Hamels, who started the prior Sunday and was thus ineligible to appear in the all-star game. (Non-all-star teammate AJ Burnett was 10-2 with a ~100 ERA+ at the break, with a much better career track record.) Correia didn't pitch in the game either, and finished the year 12-11 with a 78 ERA+, close to his career starting marks in both categories. 2) When demoted to the bullpen for the newly-acquired Wandy Rodriguez in July 2012, as the Pirates were pushing for their first winning record if not playoff appearance in ages, he publicly demanded a trade so he could go elsewhere to start. Didn't come off as a very "team" player on what was a very easy team to root for. Also seemed woefully out of touch with his own abilities, even by pro athlete standards: he was finishing a 2-year, $8 mil contract (not the kind of contract that suggests a pennant race starter), and he had a 89 ERA+ at the time of demotion, with a ~81 career ERA+ as a starting pitcher. He was perhaps fortunate to be #6 on the Pirates SP depth chart at the time! I guess it is quite possible the Pirates "guaranteed" him a starting spot when he signed, as it seems he left his hometown Padres after a demotion to the bullpen 2 years earlier, presumably seeking a chance to start Still didn't seem a great way to handle it. And all told, he only missed 3 turns in the rotation, getting 9 more opportunities to start during the Pirates epic collapse of August-September that year. (I also suspect the Twins gave him a similar guarantee about starting.) Seemed like Correia was trying to have his cake and eat it too: he obviously jumped at getting a guaranteed two-year deal, but should have really understood the team composition in his 2nd year was likely to change his role (hence why most players of his ability are limited to one-year contracts). Those two events were really my only exposure to KC before he signed with the Twins, and while they don't muster up anything near "revulsion", they did give me a mild negative vibe. Of course, all of my concern about him the past two seasons involves the team's moves (or non-moves) around him.

So in June 2015, if Sano is hitting well at Rochester but Deibinson Romero is still there and hitting maybe a little bit better than Sano, you would be OK with Romero getting the call? And should Romero keep the job indefinitely with a 93 OPS+ (like Pino's current 93 ERA+)?

Seems ironic that, in a post saying the only FA pitchers willing to come here are the likes of KC, you named 3 pitchers with higher upside who also came here (and for more money than KC).

League average for quality starts is not a good measure for judging a starter -- it fails to account at all for the pitcher's performance in nearly half of his starts! Judging by his overall numbers, Correia must be pretty bad in his other starts (not to mention, how often does one greatly exceed the qualty start definition and give his team an excellent chance of winning). There is nothing here that isn't captured better than the overall numbers, really.

That seems a little too cute to save maybe 20 innings for perhaps the healthiest and most durable minor league starter for the past 4.5 years. (While also adding an extended midseason break which he will have to carefully ramp-up from, just before or even during his MLB transition.) And the only way May was going to approach 200 innings this year is if he had a perfect seamless transition to MLB. Also, I just cringe whenever I hear the Twins aren't concerned about an injury, and have no doubt a player will return by a set date.

That level of performance is useful, but it also represents Correia's career best. On average, he is notably worse, something like an 84 career ERA+. I would be surprised if such starters are regularly traded to contenders, particularly when they are in the middle of a typical season. Edit to add: put another way, we are rightly concerned when guys like Hughes, Nolasco, Liriano, Pelfrey, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jinenez, etc. have a terrible year around 80 ERA+ on their resume. Well, Correia basically averages that low level of performance (84 career ERA+ as a starter).

Albers may have been a desperation patch, but he prevented runs in his 10 starts as well as KC ever has. And most contending teams probably don't have an Albers type permanently in the rotation. They might have a prospect there a little early, or be waiting for a starter to return from the DL. Of course, if you have specific examples and precedents, I am all ears.

DFA or waivers wouldn't have applied -- he was already removed from the 40-man this spring. This simply opens his roster spot in Rochester.

Interesting fact: when the Twins trade 25 year old Pino in 2009, he had a virtually identical line at Rochester to his 2014 Rochester line.

Pino has been sold or a minor league free agent each of the last 4 seasons. He is going to be 31 this winter. At best, if he keeps this up, maybe we can sell him to Korea, although even that seems way premature -- he's had an acceptable 5 start stretch when someone else lost their rotation job. Walters did that, Albers did it, Diamond did it better for a full season... all younger too, and none of them were worth anything to the Twins in the end (except the Korea sell, I guess). Odds are better he becomes a cheap bullpen piece, and I would like to see him in that role now (or as soon as May is healthy).

The Twins offer to Hunter was reported as 3/45, quite a far cry from the Angels 5/90 offer. The White Sox were the team that was swooped by the Angels: they offered 5/75, which was the commonly predicted number it would take to sign him.

Pittsburgh was waffling over paying Morneau ~$2 mil for the final month last year. If we are talking July 31st deadline, Willingham will make more than $2 mil over the final two months, Correia almost $2 mil. Even Burton will be due over $1 mil during that time. That's not insignificant cash, when you are talking about such marginal players.