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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Har-har. Vargas was an obvious move for a team batting Escobar and Nunez at DH. Not so much this time, with Sano at DH.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Obviously Arcia isn't a savior, but I think he could help this moribund group. I think some of his struggles in AAA are due to frustration. Park either Mauer or Hunter on the bench every day and you'd barely even have to see Arcia in the OF too.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Only 3 players with control better than Revere? Are you overrating Revere, or forgetting a lot of deadline trades? Alex Wood, Jose Reyes, David Murphy, Brandon Moss, Mike Fiers, Sam Dyson, arguably Jepsen, Cishek, Broxton, Diekman, and maybe even DeJesus too... and it wasn't at the deadline but Welington Castillo has been traded twice this season already... And who says they had to fix them long-term at the deadline? It's not like a temporary patch like Pierzynski would have been cost prohibitive, or affected our ability to address the position again in the offseason...
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Wow. Just checking on one popular suggestion to improve the team cheaply at the deadline, AJ Pierzynski has 11 hits by himself in his last 5 games...
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    You're entitled to your opinion, and I am entitled to mine. I've backed up my opinion with 17 years of results and media reports. You are free to back up your opinion with whatever you wish. And who's to say what kind of streak these teams will be on come October? Or who will be suspended or hurt? Or if Price will even be available to start a wild card game? (They might need him just to get into the game.) I am sure glad the 2009 Twins didn't pack it in because the Tigers had an ace in Verlander...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    2013 for St. Peter, actually. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/4951-dave-st-peter-well-be-competetive/
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    But that's a process based on results. It's the same process that, in the real world, dictates that you don't pinch hit for Sano. If the Twins had been turning up a lot of dominant relievers from Boyer/Stauffer level signings (the post that prompted you to bring up processes), yeah, this year really shouldn't deter that process. But they haven't.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    More on Bryant's baserunning: Because he doesn't bat leadoff, he's actually had fewer stolen base opportunities than Dozier (the next base is occupied more often for Bryant). He's also taken an extra base more often, according to B-Ref (although like I said, Bryant and Dozier are very close in this measure at B-Ref). http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2015-baserunning-batting.shtml
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, remember that baserunning runs are a counting stat. Delino Deshields actually beats Bryant in this measure at Fangraphs, but doesn't have enough PA to qualify. Others like Billy Burns, George Springer, and Jarrod Dyson also have accumulated them at a higher rate than Bryant.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, the gap is much smaller at B-Ref than Fangraphs, so it depends on weighting. But I will note that Bryant has reached base at a higher rate than Dozier, and has actually been on first base more due to having fewer extra base hits (hard for Dozier to accumulate any baserunning value on HR!). Also, due to batting order position, Dozier has led off an inning much more frequently than Bryant. So he's perhaps been more conservative about taking extra bases.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Because there's no evidence to suggest otherwise, either this year or using past history as a guide. We've already won 6 games against those teams this year (having yet to play Houston), so winning one game against them isn't that difficult a task. And nobody is suggesting that the team should have made themselves the prohibitive favorite to the win the WS on July 31. Toronto didn't even do that. That's not necessary to improve the team, and it's not necessary to "absolutely" mortgage any future to simply achieve some improvement. Do you also advocate that we quit seriously trying to win games against supposedly better opponents that are tied in the 6th inning? That's where we're at in the season right now.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Bryant has a 3-6 run advantage over Plouffe in baserunning alone. Add to that a 10% advantage in OPS+, and not much difference in defensive metrics at this point, and Bryant is going to beat Plouffe in WAR.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    In Jepsen's defense, he did pitch around them.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, these kind of contracts aren't really onerous. (Although I don't think the Padres are really at giveaway stage with Shields yet, and his and Buerhle's contracts were backloaded.) These are still good players and likely around market deals. Shin Soo Choo, Robinson Cano, etc. -- THOSE are the onerous contracts. Of course, those deals don't get moved at all.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not just my belief, it's been widely reported: http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/troy-tulowitzki-trade-toronto-blue-jays-colorado-rockies-ken-rosenthal-072815?vid=492340291747
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought that too, but it seems somewhat notable for the Twins. The 4 teams ahead of us in the AL collectively only have 1 month below .500 (Yankees in May). We have 3, every month so far except May. Even when we were leading by a few games recently, we really weren't in the same class as those teams. However, among the current wild card contenders, Toronto also has 3 months below .500 and Baltimore 2, although our .393 June winning percentage was the worst among those contenders. Actually the only teams to post calendar month winning percentages below .400 in the AL so far are: Minnesota Tampa Boston Chicago Cleveland (April) Texas (April) Oakland (twice, April & May) I think the implication is that the Twins talent level might be closer to that group than the contender group above. That said, I still don't advocate throwing in the towel, and was among those disappointed with our trade deadline approach because we weren't aggressive enough.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Gladden vs. Lombardozzi circa 1988
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    No, sorry that timeline was just a brief summary. The context is that Toronto was trying to move Reyes the whole time, but Colorado (and other potential Toronto trade partners) were resisting. Last week, Colorado relented, probably largely as an admission that they would have to eat some cash anyway. (As Philly did in the Hamels deal too.)
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I know it wasn't realistic. But that's what made Jeremy's report so surprising in the first place. Just saying I'd be interested in a follow-up from him, especially if he could clarify some of his original questions and speculation:
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Twins fans watching the steady stream of talent come up from our top-ranked farm system
  21. Otto von Ballpark
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Revisiting Tulo, is there any plan to do a "postmortem" on the Twins discussions with the Rockies? It was encouraging to hear we talked with Colorado, although the report seemed to imply talks were quite basic and limited. Did the Twins walk away, and why? Was it primarily Gibson, Sano, or the cash? Did we counteroffer? Did it even get to the point of "offers" or was it shut down earlier than that? I wasn't bothered by it fizzling out originally, because as Jeremy says, trades can take a while to develop, and I suspected the Rockies weren't actually that motivated to move him. But it appears that wasn't the case. TR strikes me as the kind of guy who will listen to (or make) an offer and give a quick, firm response (which might explain his relative lack of significant deals). This situation might have called for more give-and-take; even if an agreement wasn't readily apparent, a strong signal of interest and regular contact might have produced something. Here's a report of how it went down for Toronto: http://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2015/07/28/timeline-of-how-troy-tulowitzki-ended-up-with-blue-jays.html Just curious how it played out for the Twins. Were the Twins just not interested at any reasonable price, or did we misread the Rockies, etc.?
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    By B-Ref, Span had 2.3 WAR, but by Fangraphs he was 3.4. (UZR thought he was great with the glove, and DRS merely average.)
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Seems backwards? To move to 1 inning relief first, then multi inning relief? Sometimes I think this team gets caught up in ideals too much. Their ideal bullpen is a bunch of good 1 inning guys. And we waste time trying to fit that ideal first than using the resources we have optimally. (Also see the SS situation)
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    That is all assuming we had to deal him. We didn't. Besides, I am not sure the second year of control would have been a huge boost to his value. For instance, I don't see many differences in the Cliff Lee trade returns with 1.5, 1, or 0.5 years remaining. Also deadline rentals back then still returned 2 comp picks to the acquiring team, so the off season was never that critical of a decision point. If TR had stayed GM, I doubt that offseason would be remembered in the least. He would have replaced Hunter affordably, and held on to Santana, Garza, and Bartlett as we made another run for the division title in 2008. The situation wasn't the problem. The problem was he let the inmates (Smith with help from Gardy and Andy) run the asylum.
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