Otto von Ballpark

I'm not so sure on that last point. ZiPS projects Broxton at a 55 wRC+, and Cave at a 98. Even if you think Broxton has righted himself after his disastrous 2019, he was only at 85 wRC+ for 2017-2018 -- and Cave was 111 for the two years prior to 2020.

No, Cave has 1 option year remaining.

You'd need to clear a 40-man roster spot for Broxton, so you'd lose somebody doing it this way. Also, it was reported at MLB.com that Broxton does *not* have an opt-out at the end of spring training. So the Twins could assign him to AAA and not lose him.

Here's the Fangraphs Depth Charts WAR projections: C - CWS 4.3, MIN 2.7 1B - MIN 1.9, CWS 1.6 2B - MIN 2.7, CWS 2.4 SS - MIN 3.4, CWS 2.7 3B - MIN 4.0, CWS 3.2 LF - CWS 3.1, MIN 1.3 CF - MIN 3.7, CWS 3.5 RF - MIN 2.9, CWS 1.3 DH - MIN 2.5, CWS -0.2 In total, MIN 25.2, CWS 21.9 Andrew Vaughn at DH is a real wild card. Fangraphs expects him to play (546 PA) but I doubt he'd be allowed to play that much if he's the -0.8 WAR performer they also project. In short, pretty close! Should be fun.

Not that he's been particularly great over his career, but Pineda's postseason absence hasn't had much to do with his performance. Here are the only times his teams made the postseason: 2015 - Yankees lost the wild card game. Tanaka started and Pineda wasn't on the roster for that game, but he likely would have been in their 4-man rotation had they advanced. 2017 - Pineda had TJ surgery midseason, thus was unavailable when the Yankees made the playoffs 2019 - suspended, ineligible 2020 - 3rd starter on a team eliminated after just 2 games

FWIW, career ERA+ through age 32: Morris 115, Maeda 109 Maeda has obviously been better in his last 12 including postseason, although over the last 12 starts of his age-32 season, Morris had a 68 ERA- too. Maeda's ERA- for 2020 was 60.

Nick, I think you are being a little harsh on Morris here. He was brilliant in both the 1984 and 1991 postseasons; he was mediocre in 1987 but it was only 1 start. He was dismal in 1992, but he was also 37 years old and at the very end of his line as an effective MLB pitcher -- something not yet included in Maeda's career numbers. Through 1987, his age-32 season (same as Maeda in 2020), Morris had a 3.00 postseason ERA (albeit in only 4 starts). Through 1991, that went down further to 2.60. It was only the 1992 postseason that drags Morris' career postseason numbers down, and not coincidentally he was completely done as an effective MLB pitcher after that point. Maeda has also accumulated most of his postseason innings out of the bullpen so far, which still count of course but that furthers the oranges-to-orangutans nature of the comparison. Through age 32, Maeda has 4 career postseason starts just like Morris did, but with a 4.60 ERA in them.

Also emblematic of 2020: the White Sox were the only offense that the Twins and Berrios faced in the regular season that ranked higher than 20th overall in runs per game. Our non-White Sox opponents hit a combined .228 overall. Berrios had a 25.1% K%, but among teams that had a combined 24.9% K%.

FWIW, due to the fully unbalanced schedule, evidence suggests the Twins disproportionately faced very poor offenses in 2020. B-Ref thinks an average pitcher, in Smeltzer's spot, should have had a 3.91 RA9. So Smeltzer's decent FIP was likely still worse than average. Also, as strikeouts continue to skyrocket (the K rate was 24.9% in the central divisions last year), I wonder if it is easier for pitchers to post better FIPs.

Are you referring to “Fox Sports Net Chicago”? That was also abbreviated as FSN Chicago, but it hasn’t existed since 2006 (when its Minnesota counterpart was still FSN North).

Cot's has it at $125 mil: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QXhMYkMxJE1VJvZiNMS1X7OHPFNaIVUjd-m1ZBCzHL4/edit#gid=1520401900

If the first half of spring training is any indication, 2021 might favor pitchers overall as 2020 did -- and we might see yet another record strikeout rate. 2021 spring training: .246/.337/.420, 24.7% K 2020 regular season: .245/.322/.418, 23.4% K By comparison, here was 2019's numbers. 2019 spring training: .261/.333/.438, 22.3% K 2019 regular season (non-pitchers): .256/.327/.443, 22.4% K

What constitutes "buying a championship"? It's an interesting question. The Marlins top position player in 1997, by bWAR, was home-grown Charles Johnson; #3 was Gary Sheffield who wasn't cheap but they acquired him by trade way back in 1993. Only 3 of their starting 8 position players were FA signings, although 2 did pretty well (Bonilla and Alou). On the pitching side, they were led by Kevin Brown who was indeed a FA signing, albeit a year earlier and he was probably considered more of a workhorse than a star until he excelled for the Marlins in '96 -- his 3-year Marlins contract was relatively conservative compared to the megadeal he signed with the Dodgers later. Alex Fernandez was their biggest FA signing of all, and was solid in the regular season although due to a shoulder injury he didn't even pitch in the World Series that year (and indeed his career was pretty much done after that). And I'm not sure how to count an international FA guy like Livan Hernandez -- he was a high-profile Cuban defector, of course, and got a big contract for an amateur, but it wasn't very big at all compared to domestic FA deals (or even the top domestic amateur deals signed in 1996 -- hello, Travis Lee! ). After signing, the Marlins even developed Livan in the minors for a season too. Overall, they did jump to 5th in MLB payroll in 1997, although that same payroll would have only ranked 11th in 1998 -- so they were a bit of the inflation curve.

I'm not sure anyone rates Gleyber Torres super-highly with the glove -- I think it's more that his bat already offsets some of that and could improve even more. Torres and Polanco may rate similarly at short so far (-10.7 and -10.9 UZR/150, respectively), but Torres has a cumulative career 121 wRC+, which tops Polanco's career high to date (120, career 104). ZiPs projects Torres at 132 this year (and also projects some defensive improvement, it appears -- after all, Torres just turned 24 and only has a season's worth of innings at short, compared to Polanco who has 3.5 times those innings and is turning 28 -- and was just replaced at short, albeit by a great defender).

It was reported back in January that the Reds asked for Gleyber Torres, in return for Castillo:

We say the Reds aren't likely to be competitive, but: 1. That hasn't stopped them from playing to win the past few years (and they finished 2nd and made it into the expanded playoffs last year). 2. The NL Central could be really, really bad. The Fangraphs playoff odds page projects the Reds at 79 wins right now -- but they also peg the Cardinals winning the division with only 81 wins. 18.2% chance at winning the division for the Reds. The Reds lost Bauer to FA this winter, although they were somehow only 6-5 in his starts last year, despite his microscopic ERA. They also traded Raisel Iglesias, but he was a pending FA reliever. They've got a pretty uninspiring lineup though, so I wouldn't be surprised if they fail to compete and have to consider trades this summer, regardless of their intent now.

Not at this time, no. We may not know unless the coaches decide to disclose it themselves.

If their primary duties are not related to major league spring training, then there may be no need to replace them right away.

Old post, first time seeing it, but Maeda only faced a pitcher 7.3% of the time in LA -- it's not quite an even distribution since the pitchers bat last and SP often get removed before that spot comes up the same number of times as the higher lineup spots. (And of course pitchers are regularly pinch-hit for as well.) And while Maeda certainly dominated pitchers (74 K in 166 PA!), that was offset a little bit by pitching some out of the pen in LA too (58 K in 168 PA, or 34.5 K% as a reliever, vs 25.8 K% as a starter). Also league K% has been climbing -- actually it was *much* higher in the 2020 AL/NL Central divisions, which Maeda faced exclusively in 2020 without a DH, than it ever was in the wider NL with pitchers hitting: 2016 NL: 21.5% 2017 NL: 21.9% 2018 NL: 22.6% 2019 NL: 23.0% 2020 AL/NL Central: 24.9% FWIW, the rest of MLB only had a 22.8 K% in 2020.

Yes, I know about $/WAR estimates. That's not quite was I was asking, although it's a decent rule of thumb for estimating long-term FA contracts. I specifically asked about the minimum Buxton could get for his age-29 season. Matt Harvey didn't get $11 mil in 2019 because the Angels though he'd produce 1.4 WAR in his age-30 season. Josh Donaldson didn't get $23 mil from the Braves in 2019 because they thought he'd produce 2.9 WAR. Short-term contracts can be as much about betting on upside potential as anything else. Teams want to *beat* $8 mil per WAR whenever possible, and there's no better way to do that on the FA market than short-term deals for big talents with a few question marks. And Buxton, with his skills and what he's shown through age 26, has a very good chance to be an attractive target for those upside bets entering his age-29 season, even if scuffles through the next two years. It's not hard to imagine that in such a scenario, Buxton could still find a taker for age 29-30 at Bradley Jr prices (2/24). And of course, with plenty of upside to earn a lot more -- both at age 29-30 and guarantees for age 31+ -- if he puts it together for a season before then, rather than just scuffling. Which suggests he's probably not too eager to sell those two seasons, and those two seasons alone, for $30 mil right now.

I won't belabor the Bradley pandemic tangent, but I agree that Buxton shouldn't expect less than $12 mil AAV now. I laid out my reasons in the other thread, but yeah, Buxton could probably approach 1/12 or Bradley's 2/24 in free agency at age 29 based on potential alone.

Even a halfway decent / halfway healthy Buxton season in 2022 (or beyond) would warrant $19 mil QO consideration. ZiPS projects him for 2.7 fWAR this year in only 397 PA at 104 wRC+. Another point suggesting he may not be willing to sell his 2023-2024 services for $30 mil combined.

What's the minimum you think Buxton can reasonably expect on the open market for his age 29 season? Even if he continues his recent mix of injuries/inconsistency over the next 2 years, I think some team would bet at least a 1/10 contract on his tools and potential for age 29. They might even repeat it for age 30. Keep in mind, Matt Harvey got $11 mil for his age 30 season, coming off pretty poor/unhealthy age 27-28-29 seasons. $10 mil is not that much for a team to risk on a short-term deal for potential high-end, near-prime-age talent. And Buxton has the added benefit of being a position player rather than a pitcher, meaning missed time is less likely to affect how much he can play the following season. (A pitcher that misses most of a season is often going to be on a innings limit or in the bullpen the following year.) And that's what the Twins have to bid against right now. Buxton could pretty easily make $34+ mil over the next 4 years without ever fulfilling his potential; if he does fulfill his potential in any one of those seasons, he could parlay that into a $19 mil qualifying offer for a single season, and/or an $80+ mil FA contract. I think it would be difficult for the Twins to buy that out for just 4/50 right now.

I don't know what this deal might look like, but I think these estimates are low. Remember that Buxton already has the first $5.13 million guaranteed for this year's salary (assuming no COVID season interruptions). And he's mostly guaranteed another ~$8+ mil for next year in his final trip through arbitration, barring something unexpected. I noted in another thread that those years could pull down the AAV of an extension, but probably not down to 4/40 or 4/44. 4/44 is basically just tacking on 2/30 to those arb deals, for his age 29 and age 30 FA seasons. That seems like too little for Buxton to accept right now. With his all-around potential, I think some teams would still give him 1/10 type deals in FA for age 29 and then age 30, even if his next 2 years aren't that great/healthy. And of course, if he does manage to put it together for a year, he could get $80+ mil on a longer term deal. (And going year-to-year makes it easier for him to cash in on such a season too.) This is one of the harder extensions to try to predict. I think if something happens, it would have to be north of $60 mil, albeit perhaps for a 5 year term rather than your proposed 4. Someone brought up the Hicks deal, which was a little weird (7 year term, signed 1 year before FA), but the total of $70 mil seems like it could be close to Buxton's desired guarantee right now?

Keep in mind, Bradley was a free agent, while Buxton is still on arb salaries this year and next. If the deal included/replaced/restructured Buxton's $5.13 mil salary this year, and did the same for a forecasted ~$9 mil arb award for next year, that would pull down the AAV a bit. Also, it's debatable how much the pandemic really affected this winter's FA market overall. In Bradley's case, ZiPS projects him at 1.5 fWAR for 2021, his age-31 season, so I think a 2/24 contract ($8 mil per win) would have been appropriate for him in any recent offseason. MLBTR had only pegged him at 2/16 at the beginning of the offseason. Actually, looking over MLBTR's top 50 FA, the contracts look pretty normal: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2021.html I think the pandemic's affect on the FA market was maybe a bit more targeted/limited -- for example, guys who mostly skipped/missed the 2020 season, like Stroman and Odorizzi. Edit to add: all that said, Buxton is better than Bradley. Buxton's ZiPS forecast is 2.7 fWAR this year in only 397 PA. And while his first FA year carries some uncertainty, being 2 years out still, it will only be his age-29 season, as compared to age-31 for Bradley this year. That should mean Buxton can ask for a higher salary in his FA years, or just give Buxton more incentive to wait and test the open market.