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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins official site beat writer said Broxton does *not* have an opt-out at the end of spring training: There's actually a good chance of the Twins being able to hold on to Broxton without breaking camp with him because he doesn't have an opt-out at the end of Spring Training. https://www.mlb.com/news/twins-inbox-can-broxton-make-the-team
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I think that in the modern game, and particularly on this team, pinch-running would be the smallest part of the role, by definition. The Twins only pinch-ran 43 times combined over 2019-2020, and they're generally not attempting steals either, so the relative difference between Cave and Broxton as pinch running options is minimal. The difference between their career batting lines, on the other hand, is worth about 7.9 Rbat prorated to 228 PA (which was the 2019 PA total for both of them). On defense, the career gap between Broxton and Cave, prorated to Broxton's 2019 innings, would be about 2.3 UZR or 6.6 DRS. Broxton turns 31 soon, though, which could be a negative factor in his defensive projection going forward? Cave's advantage in ZiPS projections, including defense, is about 8.2 runs (or 0.8 WAR) prorated to 228 PA.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Astudillo has a few games at first this spring (and previously in his career). Blankenhorn has a game there this spring too, although he hadn't played it in the minors in 6 years (since rookie ball). Garver's had a few innings there each season, Rooker has some games there in the minors and college but none yet this spring.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not so sure on that last point. ZiPS projects Broxton at a 55 wRC+, and Cave at a 98. Even if you think Broxton has righted himself after his disastrous 2019, he was only at 85 wRC+ for 2017-2018 -- and Cave was 111 for the two years prior to 2020.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    No, Cave has 1 option year remaining.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    You'd need to clear a 40-man roster spot for Broxton, so you'd lose somebody doing it this way. Also, it was reported at MLB.com that Broxton does *not* have an opt-out at the end of spring training. So the Twins could assign him to AAA and not lose him.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Here's the Fangraphs Depth Charts WAR projections: C - CWS 4.3, MIN 2.7 1B - MIN 1.9, CWS 1.6 2B - MIN 2.7, CWS 2.4 SS - MIN 3.4, CWS 2.7 3B - MIN 4.0, CWS 3.2 LF - CWS 3.1, MIN 1.3 CF - MIN 3.7, CWS 3.5 RF - MIN 2.9, CWS 1.3 DH - MIN 2.5, CWS -0.2 In total, MIN 25.2, CWS 21.9 Andrew Vaughn at DH is a real wild card. Fangraphs expects him to play (546 PA) but I doubt he'd be allowed to play that much if he's the -0.8 WAR performer they also project. In short, pretty close! Should be fun.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Not that he's been particularly great over his career, but Pineda's postseason absence hasn't had much to do with his performance. Here are the only times his teams made the postseason: 2015 - Yankees lost the wild card game. Tanaka started and Pineda wasn't on the roster for that game, but he likely would have been in their 4-man rotation had they advanced. 2017 - Pineda had TJ surgery midseason, thus was unavailable when the Yankees made the playoffs 2019 - suspended, ineligible 2020 - 3rd starter on a team eliminated after just 2 games
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, career ERA+ through age 32: Morris 115, Maeda 109 Maeda has obviously been better in his last 12 including postseason, although over the last 12 starts of his age-32 season, Morris had a 68 ERA- too. Maeda's ERA- for 2020 was 60.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Nick, I think you are being a little harsh on Morris here. He was brilliant in both the 1984 and 1991 postseasons; he was mediocre in 1987 but it was only 1 start. He was dismal in 1992, but he was also 37 years old and at the very end of his line as an effective MLB pitcher -- something not yet included in Maeda's career numbers. Through 1987, his age-32 season (same as Maeda in 2020), Morris had a 3.00 postseason ERA (albeit in only 4 starts). Through 1991, that went down further to 2.60. It was only the 1992 postseason that drags Morris' career postseason numbers down, and not coincidentally he was completely done as an effective MLB pitcher after that point. Maeda has also accumulated most of his postseason innings out of the bullpen so far, which still count of course but that furthers the oranges-to-orangutans nature of the comparison. Through age 32, Maeda has 4 career postseason starts just like Morris did, but with a 4.60 ERA in them.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Also emblematic of 2020: the White Sox were the only offense that the Twins and Berrios faced in the regular season that ranked higher than 20th overall in runs per game. Our non-White Sox opponents hit a combined .228 overall. Berrios had a 25.1% K%, but among teams that had a combined 24.9% K%.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, due to the fully unbalanced schedule, evidence suggests the Twins disproportionately faced very poor offenses in 2020. B-Ref thinks an average pitcher, in Smeltzer's spot, should have had a 3.91 RA9. So Smeltzer's decent FIP was likely still worse than average. Also, as strikeouts continue to skyrocket (the K rate was 24.9% in the central divisions last year), I wonder if it is easier for pitchers to post better FIPs.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Are you referring to “Fox Sports Net Chicago”? That was also abbreviated as FSN Chicago, but it hasn’t existed since 2006 (when its Minnesota counterpart was still FSN North).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Cot's has it at $125 mil: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QXhMYkMxJE1VJvZiNMS1X7OHPFNaIVUjd-m1ZBCzHL4/edit#gid=1520401900
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    If the first half of spring training is any indication, 2021 might favor pitchers overall as 2020 did -- and we might see yet another record strikeout rate. 2021 spring training: .246/.337/.420, 24.7% K 2020 regular season: .245/.322/.418, 23.4% K By comparison, here was 2019's numbers. 2019 spring training: .261/.333/.438, 22.3% K 2019 regular season (non-pitchers): .256/.327/.443, 22.4% K
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    What constitutes "buying a championship"? It's an interesting question. The Marlins top position player in 1997, by bWAR, was home-grown Charles Johnson; #3 was Gary Sheffield who wasn't cheap but they acquired him by trade way back in 1993. Only 3 of their starting 8 position players were FA signings, although 2 did pretty well (Bonilla and Alou). On the pitching side, they were led by Kevin Brown who was indeed a FA signing, albeit a year earlier and he was probably considered more of a workhorse than a star until he excelled for the Marlins in '96 -- his 3-year Marlins contract was relatively conservative compared to the megadeal he signed with the Dodgers later. Alex Fernandez was their biggest FA signing of all, and was solid in the regular season although due to a shoulder injury he didn't even pitch in the World Series that year (and indeed his career was pretty much done after that). And I'm not sure how to count an international FA guy like Livan Hernandez -- he was a high-profile Cuban defector, of course, and got a big contract for an amateur, but it wasn't very big at all compared to domestic FA deals (or even the top domestic amateur deals signed in 1996 -- hello, Travis Lee! ). After signing, the Marlins even developed Livan in the minors for a season too. Overall, they did jump to 5th in MLB payroll in 1997, although that same payroll would have only ranked 11th in 1998 -- so they were a bit of the inflation curve.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure anyone rates Gleyber Torres super-highly with the glove -- I think it's more that his bat already offsets some of that and could improve even more. Torres and Polanco may rate similarly at short so far (-10.7 and -10.9 UZR/150, respectively), but Torres has a cumulative career 121 wRC+, which tops Polanco's career high to date (120, career 104). ZiPs projects Torres at 132 this year (and also projects some defensive improvement, it appears -- after all, Torres just turned 24 and only has a season's worth of innings at short, compared to Polanco who has 3.5 times those innings and is turning 28 -- and was just replaced at short, albeit by a great defender).
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    It was reported back in January that the Reds asked for Gleyber Torres, in return for Castillo:
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    We say the Reds aren't likely to be competitive, but: 1. That hasn't stopped them from playing to win the past few years (and they finished 2nd and made it into the expanded playoffs last year). 2. The NL Central could be really, really bad. The Fangraphs playoff odds page projects the Reds at 79 wins right now -- but they also peg the Cardinals winning the division with only 81 wins. 18.2% chance at winning the division for the Reds. The Reds lost Bauer to FA this winter, although they were somehow only 6-5 in his starts last year, despite his microscopic ERA. They also traded Raisel Iglesias, but he was a pending FA reliever. They've got a pretty uninspiring lineup though, so I wouldn't be surprised if they fail to compete and have to consider trades this summer, regardless of their intent now.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Not at this time, no. We may not know unless the coaches decide to disclose it themselves.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    If their primary duties are not related to major league spring training, then there may be no need to replace them right away.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Old post, first time seeing it, but Maeda only faced a pitcher 7.3% of the time in LA -- it's not quite an even distribution since the pitchers bat last and SP often get removed before that spot comes up the same number of times as the higher lineup spots. (And of course pitchers are regularly pinch-hit for as well.) And while Maeda certainly dominated pitchers (74 K in 166 PA!), that was offset a little bit by pitching some out of the pen in LA too (58 K in 168 PA, or 34.5 K% as a reliever, vs 25.8 K% as a starter). Also league K% has been climbing -- actually it was *much* higher in the 2020 AL/NL Central divisions, which Maeda faced exclusively in 2020 without a DH, than it ever was in the wider NL with pitchers hitting: 2016 NL: 21.5% 2017 NL: 21.9% 2018 NL: 22.6% 2019 NL: 23.0% 2020 AL/NL Central: 24.9% FWIW, the rest of MLB only had a 22.8 K% in 2020.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, I know about $/WAR estimates. That's not quite was I was asking, although it's a decent rule of thumb for estimating long-term FA contracts. I specifically asked about the minimum Buxton could get for his age-29 season. Matt Harvey didn't get $11 mil in 2019 because the Angels though he'd produce 1.4 WAR in his age-30 season. Josh Donaldson didn't get $23 mil from the Braves in 2019 because they thought he'd produce 2.9 WAR. Short-term contracts can be as much about betting on upside potential as anything else. Teams want to *beat* $8 mil per WAR whenever possible, and there's no better way to do that on the FA market than short-term deals for big talents with a few question marks. And Buxton, with his skills and what he's shown through age 26, has a very good chance to be an attractive target for those upside bets entering his age-29 season, even if scuffles through the next two years. It's not hard to imagine that in such a scenario, Buxton could still find a taker for age 29-30 at Bradley Jr prices (2/24). And of course, with plenty of upside to earn a lot more -- both at age 29-30 and guarantees for age 31+ -- if he puts it together for a season before then, rather than just scuffling. Which suggests he's probably not too eager to sell those two seasons, and those two seasons alone, for $30 mil right now.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I won't belabor the Bradley pandemic tangent, but I agree that Buxton shouldn't expect less than $12 mil AAV now. I laid out my reasons in the other thread, but yeah, Buxton could probably approach 1/12 or Bradley's 2/24 in free agency at age 29 based on potential alone.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Even a halfway decent / halfway healthy Buxton season in 2022 (or beyond) would warrant $19 mil QO consideration. ZiPS projects him for 2.7 fWAR this year in only 397 PA at 104 wRC+. Another point suggesting he may not be willing to sell his 2023-2024 services for $30 mil combined.
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