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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    That's a good idea! We've just posted a pre-debate poll for our second debate topic ("Who was the better player: Kirby Puckett or Joe Mauer?) -- please vote in that if you haven't already, then start following the debate itself and vote in the post-debate poll when it is complete.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Fangraphs has tried to quantify the value of opt-outs a few times, and settled around 6% of the contract's total value: Valuing Gerrit Cole’s Opt Out The Value of the Opt-Out Clause in the David Price Contract
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Opt-outs definitely put some extra value on player side of the ledger when evaluating contracts, but it's not so simple as this. If he's good, the Tigers will have received two good seasons from him, for approximately $30 mil (assuming the yearly salaries are roughly equal*). And they'll no longer be on the hook for his age 31-33 seasons. It's not enough to make opt-outs "team-friendly" of course, but it tempers the player-friendliness a bit. *EDIT TO ADD: Now it's been disclosed the contract is back-loaded a little bit, which improves the opt-out outcomes for the team.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Two of the three MLBTR writers had picked the Twins to land Rodriguez. (The other one said Tigers, so congrats to them!) Contract is 5/77 (or up to 5/80 with incentives), an opt-out after year 2, and some kind of no-trade protection. Here were his predicted contract numbers: MLBTR: 5/70 Ben Clemens (FanGraphs): 4/80 Fangraphs median crowdsource: 4/72
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I've added that as an option to the poll now.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I like all of these targets, it just might take a bit more to land them. Next year is Stroman's age 31 season, so I think he's probably aiming for more total dollars rather than AAV. Your 3/70 deal could beat the Fangraphs median crowdsource estimate of 4/72, but it would fall short of the average crowdsource (~4/83), Ben Clemens (4/100), and MLBTR (5/110) estimates. There's also enough demand at shortstop that it might be hard for the market to "dry up" too much for Story. MLBTR says "Astros, Rangers, Yankees, Tigers, Twins, Angels, Phillies, and Cardinals" could pursue Story. And a few of those teams aren't going to be able to afford or land Correa or Seager, so they'll probably focus more on the next tier. (And if Semien and Taylor sign somewhere else to play more second base, it doesn't necessarily hurt Story's market.)
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Your Stroman and Story contracts are lower than virtually all of the estimates at Fangraphs and MLB Trade Rumors. Even if the market proves to be team-friendly, it would be rather surprising for the Twins to win the bidding at those prices, with no history or geographic connection to either player. Seems like they'd have a lot of suitors at that level. Your Gallen trade also seems off. Aside from falling short on value at BaseballTradeValues.com, it's just not a package of players that the Diamondbacks would be seeking. They already have two cost-controlled catchers (Kelly and Varsho, each valued higher than Jeffers). And Rogers would just be a rental that they'd have to flip. I think you'd need a package at least on par with Martin + Woods-Richardson, if not higher (Gallen is still pre-arb, and has 4 years of control left, so less urgency to move him).
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Oakland only owes Andrus $6.75 million in 2022 (Texas is on the hook for the rest). And according to MLB Trade Rumors, Andrus' 2023 option won't kick in unless he reaches 550 PA in 2022, which is doubtful. He's still not worth that much, but it's also pretty meager salary relief too.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I found the full game video -- the score bug was actually corrected after the replay of the 2nd down incompletion. It briefly (but correctly) showed Vikings with 3 timeouts, and Ravens with only 2, at 1:33 remaining, just before Vikings trainers attended to Udoh:
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    You're right, it was. But I think it is still the correct explanation. I was going by this report: Looking back at the condensed game video, I think the TV broadcast got it wrong. Their score bug docked a timeout from the Vikings at 1:37 (after the 1st down play), but then it docked one from the Ravens at 1:33 when Udoh was down (after our incomplete pass on second down). But the ESPN play log (as well as the tweet above) suggests that those timeouts were actually reversed: the Ravens called time at 1:37, and the Vikings were charged with one at 1:33 due to Udoh's injury. That would make more sense, as the Ravens wanted to stop the clock after our first-down run so they could get the ball back with more time on the clock. And even though the 2nd down play was an incomplete pass which stopped the clock, Udoh being down would have still charged the Vikings with a timeout anyway according to NFL Rule 4, Section 5, Article 4:
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    As requested by their agent, Engelbert Humperdinck.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
  13. Otto von Ballpark
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Vikings lineman Oli Udoh was down on the field, injured on that play. In the last two minutes of a half, there are no "injury timeouts" so the Vikings were charged with a timeout.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Why sign Jon Gray to an Ervin Santana contract, when we can just sign Ervin Santana himself?
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    On the other hand, if a team is aggressive about offers right now -- for example, the Twins offering guys the full predicted MLBTR contract values, or maybe even a little more -- then the player might take it, and avoid the risk of waiting on the new CBA (which may not bring all the big clubs back into the bidding later).
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Better to trade John Gant for a starter at the deadline next year. Oh wait, never mind that either!
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, the 2001 contraction letter shared by the OP was signed by current Twins chairman Jim Pohlad, not Carl.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Good point -- for the Twins to actually land one of these, especially at the high end, they may actually have to beat these contract offers. (And we may not have the benefit of being allowed to match, after our initial offer -- no real history or geographic connection with any of these guys that I can see.)
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Corrected! Typo by me, sorry.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    "Good" is obviously a subjective term, but Gausman has more than just 2021 on his resume. Here are the career numbers as a starter for Gausman and Stroman: # Name Team GS IP K% BB% WAR RA9-WAR 1 Marcus Stroman - - - 173 1018.0 20.0% 6.8% 19.1 19.2 2 Kevin Gausman - - - 197 1117.0 23.0% 6.9% 18.8 18.3 Pretty close in overall results, exact same age, and Gausman's 2021 was better than Stroman's too. FWIW, Stroman is a groundball pitcher, Gausman is a flyball pitcher.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I should add that signing Stroman (Marcus), with Strotman (Drew) still on the roster, would also necessitate a full-time proofreader here at Twins Daily.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Wow, I didn't realize the Baseball Hall of Fame had a contraction letter! Do they have any correspondence between the Pohlads and Don Beaver?
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins need starting pitchers, I know it, your family knows it -- dogs know it. And now we have some predicted contracts for the free agent market, thanks to the MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 list. This poll includes all of the 3+ year predicted contracts for free agent starting pitchers (with the exception of Scherzer -- sorry. that ain't happening!). Which one of these contracts would you most like the Twins to sign, and why? Do you think you're getting the best pitcher in the group, or rather the best value?
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I got the impression that Tingler was in tough spot in San Diego -- an inexperienced manager put at the helm of a team looking to make a splash, stuck between a strong-willed front office and some big-name players. I wonder if he was trying to assert his authority with his initial take on the 3-0 "unwritten rules."
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