Otto von Ballpark

Well, Bally Sports networks may be circling the drain of bankruptcy, but they do seem to making progress on this front: Sinclair Reaches Deal for Direct-To-Consumer Rights to 12 NHL Teams For Bally Sports App Includes the Wild. No word yet on price, or when it would launch -- they're probably trying to leverage this to help get MLB and/or NBA streaming rights too.

Reducing team control could also increase the FA player supply. Right now, FA prices are inflated due to artificial scarcity. Also, free agents would be younger and teams could more confidently give them contracts.

That's an interesting idea. Arraez is already arbitration eligible this winter, though (as a "super two" qualifier), so I wonder if he's a little too far along to be targeted by Oakland -- I think they really want those pre-arbitration seasons. (I also wonder if baseballtradesvalues.com knows yet that Arraez is arb-eligible, as the threshold was just disclosed publicly a few days ago.) Edit to add: I emailed the baseballtradevalues.com folks and they apparently just updated for Arraez’s super two status. So his media value estimate is down slightly, to 27.9.

I looked into this before, and Jax's "first time through the order" success was likely overrated.

Cross-posting from the forum thread: This is a cheap contract, and Bundy still has some upside. But outside of 11 starts in 2020, he's never been much better than average by ERA or ERA predictors: # Season Name Team G GS IP ERA- FIP- xFIP- K% BB% HR/FB 1 2016 Dylan Bundy BAL 36 14 109.2 95 107 109 21.9% 8.9% 13.3% 2 2017 Dylan Bundy BAL 28 28 169.2 95 96 109 21.8% 7.3% 11.5% 3 2018 Dylan Bundy BAL 31 31 171.2 128 117 101 24.5% 7.2% 17.8% 4 2019 Dylan Bundy BAL 30 30 161.2 102 97 100 23.1% 8.3% 16.4% 5 2020 Dylan Bundy LAA 11 11 65.2 74 65 84 27.0% 6.4% 8.2% 6 2021 Dylan Bundy LAA 23 19 90.2 139 126 109 21.2% 8.6% 19.2% Also worth noting that, just like how Maeda exclusively faced bottom-third offenses in 2020 due to the all-central division schedule, Bundy managed to load up on weaker hitting opponents in 2020 too: SEA 3 OAK 3 TEX 2 ARI 1 SFG 1 HOU 1 And this is 2020, when SFG and HOU were both mediocre in the regular season. That's 9 of his 11 starts vs below average run scoring teams; 10 of 11 vs below average HR hitting teams. Bundy completely missed the two best west division teams (Dodgers and Padres) and Colorado / Coors Field. So I'd guess the realistic upside here is average, which is still plenty valuable even on the $11 mil team option, if Bundy manages to achieve it -- but still leaves something to be desired at the top of the rotation.

This is a cheap contract, and Bundy still has some upside. But outside of 11 starts in 2020, he's never been much better than average by ERA or ERA predictors: # Season Name Team G GS IP ERA- FIP- xFIP- K% BB% HR/FB 1 2016 Dylan Bundy BAL 36 14 109.2 95 107 109 21.9% 8.9% 13.3% 2 2017 Dylan Bundy BAL 28 28 169.2 95 96 109 21.8% 7.3% 11.5% 3 2018 Dylan Bundy BAL 31 31 171.2 128 117 101 24.5% 7.2% 17.8% 4 2019 Dylan Bundy BAL 30 30 161.2 102 97 100 23.1% 8.3% 16.4% 5 2020 Dylan Bundy LAA 11 11 65.2 74 65 84 27.0% 6.4% 8.2% 6 2021 Dylan Bundy LAA 23 19 90.2 139 126 109 21.2% 8.6% 19.2% Also worth noting that, just like how Maeda exclusively faced bottom-third offenses in 2020 due to the all-central division schedule, Bundy managed to load up on weaker hitting opponents in 2020 too: SEA 3 OAK 3 TEX 2 ARI 1 SFG 1 HOU 1 And this is 2020, when SFG and HOU were both mediocre in the regular season. That's 9 of his 11 starts vs below average run scoring teams; 10 of 11 vs below average HR hitting teams. Bundy completely missed the two best west division teams (Dodgers and Padres) and Colorado / Coors Field. So I'd guess the realistic upside here is average, which is still plenty valuable even on the $11 mil team option, if Bundy manages to achieve it -- but still leaves something to be desired at the top of the rotation.

If games are lost, that means this lockout would last at least 2.5 months. (And maybe 3+ months to impact regular season games?) I don't know if I'd be any less of a fan in the long run, but that would be a disappointing outcome.

Chris Taylor back to the Dodgers.

Normally, I'd be with you on the multiple shortstop thing, but Semien just won a legit gold glove at second base, and it's kind of a big FA class for shortstops. I just try to imagine how I'd feel if I was a Rangers fan. Sure, I'd be nervous, but I'd also be excited. And I don't think I'd be upset (or apathetic, as I would have been the last few years). Still work left to do, of course.

Doesn't Gray suggest they are in process of doing this? I don't think they are necessarily done for this winter, and of course they have to room to add next offseason too. i don't think they are realistically expecting 90 wins right away in 2022. Maybe 80? Then further round out the roster next offseason, based on how players developed in 2022?

I agree, they are not likely competitors for 2022 -- that should just be a universal truth, given their low 2021 baseline. But I think they could be significantly improved. And I just don't know that there was any better way to spend this money, or any real advantage to wait to spend it.

Megill is automatically a free agent now, since we didn't tender him a contract. So he can seek a contract from any club. Had we tendered him a contract yesterday, and then placed him on waivers ourselves, Megill could have elected free agency if we tried to outright him off the 40-man roster (as he has previously been outrighted before).

Megill is an interesting case for a non-tender. Still 2-3 full seasons away from arbitration, so the Twins could have tendered him a contract for league minimum yesterday and then later put him on waivers at any time if we needed the 40-man roster spot. (And of course, 2 option years remaining, so he wouldn't need to occupy a 26-man roster spot if he was still on the 40-man come opening day either.) However, even if he had cleared waivers and we tried to outright him off the 40-man roster, Megill has the right to elect free agency, as he has already been outrighted once before in his career (2020). Maybe that was a complicating factor?

Yes, for Minana and Coulombe -- both were arb-eligible and projected to get $1.1 mil and $800k, respectively. Without the flexibility to send them back and forth to the minors (options), it didn't make much sense to lock them into roster spots at those salaries. Still can negotiate minor league deals with them and seek other alternatives. Megill, on the other hand, is not even close to arb-eligible, and has options...

You're probably right, just because the Rangers 2021 baseline is so low. But "compete" doesn't have to be a binary thing. I think they are just looking to be significantly more competitive/interesting in 2022 and going forward. After a few seasons of bottoming out and selling assets already, I think that's a fair goal.

Iowa is unique in that regard. Pretty much everywhere else in Twins blackout territory, you can get BSN on the monthly "DirecTV Stream" (formerly AT&T TV) streaming package (and formerly other streaming providers too) -- no need for cable or satellite contracts. You can still get it through DirecTV Stream in Iowa in the northwest part of the state, on or above a rough line from Mason City through Webster City and Carroll all the way to Onawa on the western border (zip code search). Actually, just before the Sinclair/Bally nonsense, I think Hulu Live TV carried the Twins across the entire state of Iowa, along with the networks of several other teams (for no additional cost to the consumer). Maybe if Sinclair/Bally goes bankrupt, we can get back to that.

The first A-Rod deal was actually great -- he performed incredibly, and inflation proved the contract quite reasonable. Those Rangers even had some other quality players, but just did a poor job of completing those rosters, and panicked in dealing A-Rod to the Yankees as they did. For the Angels, their payroll was already pretty high when they signed Pujols and Hamilton as 32 year old corner players. (Technically Hamilton still played some CF at age 31 but not particularly well.) The current Rangers? Payroll was low, so they still have a lot of room even after these deals. The 10 year deal is going to the 27 year old shortstop Seager. Semien is 31 but just won a gold glove *and* silver slugger at second base. Both deals, and Gray's, aren't far from the MLBTR estimates. The Rangers top 10 prospects per Fangraphs are all FV 45 or greater with ETAs of 2021-2023. There is certainly risk involved here, but I give the Rangers some credit for not assuming they have to bottom out a few more seasons before they can act. Assuming the Astros lose Correa, that division isn't too daunting.

Jung turns 24 in February. The Rangers started him at AA in that "first" full season of pro ball, then advanced him to AAA after just 43 games. And he excelled at both levels, with good underlying peripherals. Doesn't seem like the kind of guy you ask to repeat AAA for an additional half-season or longer. So if other teams value Kiner-Falefa in trade as a starting shortstop this offseason, the Rangers should cash that in for a different asset (pitcher? catcher? outfielder?). They can use a guy like Asdrubal Cabrera as the 3B placeholder if they have to delay Jung's service time clock a couple weeks at the beginning of the season.

The Rangers can certainly wait out the new CBA, to see what kind of service time manipulation they can do with Jung. But it would seem pretty foolish to keep him at AAA longer than necessary, now that they've made major immediate MLB investments and Kiner-Falefa can be exchanged for another asset.

Yes, I think the minor league salary of a split contract remains in effect, regardless of whether the player is optioned to the minors or outrighted to the minors. (And I'm guessing it's also what is owed if the player is released.)

FWIW, the Rangers have a 3B prospect ready, Josh Jung. #48 overall at MLB.com, #57 overall at Fangraphs. 8th overall pick in 2019, crushed AA and AAA last year. Steamer already projects him for a 116 wRC+ next year, even before he has made his MLB debut. So I think the Rangers are set in the infield, although this does suggest they'd be willing to move Kiner-Falefa for something.

Miami just signed Avisail Garcia to a 4/53 deal.

And of course, the only reason for Cave to sign a $800k/$300k split contract with the Twins was if he knew the likely alternative was clearing waivers and getting outrighted before the tender deadline (in which case, he'd get nothing but normal, non-guaranteed minor league pay, less than $300k). If there was a decent chance of getting claimed and/or tendered a 2022 contract via arbitration, Cave would have never signed this split contract in the first place.

I don't think the Cave contract was necessary to help him clear waivers at all. Assuming Cave hadn't already agreed to a 2022 contract, a team claiming him on waivers right now would have had to tender him a contract for 2022 as today is the tender deadline. In Cave's case, with 3 years service time, that means salary arbitration if the two sides can't come to an agreement by January. MLBTR estimated a $1.1 mil arbitration award for Cave. And arbitration contracts are NOT split contracts -- if Cave was optioned or outrighted to the minors by his new club, at any time before or during the 2022 season, he'd still get the full $1.1 mil. (His new club could have released -- not outrighted -- Cave before opening day with 30-45 days termination pay, approx. $177k-$266k.) I think Cave was arguably more attractive on waivers with the $800k/$300k split contract that he signed with the Twins. Any claiming team would have had the benefit of paying him only $300k as minor league depth for 2022, without the risk of having to pay his full salary or arb award if he didn't make the majors (or having to pay $177k-$266k just to release him before opening day).

I feel like it is working, somewhat. Seems like the better teams are losing players, and the lesser teams are gaining players. Not every team, of course, but the free agent market is a fairly limited supply -- there may not be enough to spread them out even further.