Otto von Ballpark

Thanks for this article. Martinez is ranked 93rd overall at Fangraphs and 96th by BA. He's #6 in Toronto's system at MLB.com but the first 5 guys are all top 100 overall, so he's likely just outside it himself. Here are the median value estimates from BaseballTradeValues.com: Pineda: 2.3 TOR SS Orelvis Martinez: 26.6 ATL LHP Jasseel De La Cruz: 2.9 CHC RHP Kohl Franklin: 3.6 The Atlanta and Chicago returns seem pretty accurate. There may not be any elite players traded this summer but there should be a decent quantity of guys available similar to Pineda, so I can't imagine he'd draw a bid like Martinez.

I guess “Baserunner Out Advancing” is basically the same as a runner getting thrown out trying to stretch a single into a double?

I think I found the relevant scoring rule (this same file was at MLB.com too but the link wasn't working): https://foulballz.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/10_the_official_scorer.pdf Regarding "fielder's choice", the summary I saw omitted some important context (emphasis mine):

I appreciate that fielder’s choice may not be the technical term to apply, but this play was not scored as a caught stealing at MLB.com or Baseball Reference or anywhere else I can find. B-R says “Baserunner Out Advancing”.

That was me. Wasn’t just because of Chapman though — our 6-7-8 hitters were due up in the 9th in the Jax game, not 1-2-3 like last night. Also, we had already used 4 relievers in the Jax game, including Rogers and Farrell, two of our best at the moment. Even if you manage to come back from down 2 and force a tie, you have less bullpen ammunition if it goes to extras. And it cuts both ways — last night, Robles retired Judge, Torres, and Stanton (2-3-4) in the top of the 9th just before our comeback against Chapman. If you use Robles in the earlier game, that could have impacted his availability or effectiveness last night (Yankees hadn’t seen him yet this year).

It is scored as a fielder’s choice, actually, not a caught stealing (unless the runner was attempting to advance before the ball got away from the catcher). You are correct that no WP or PB is scored.

To add a further twist: our 2016 team could have finished with 2.3 more wins, if we replaced Berrios' 14 starts with the team's non-Berrios record.

This is interesting to think about. There is some selection bias in these numbers. First of all, like another poster said, Buxton has the "good fortune" of not playing many games with the 2021 team so far, which weighs this sample toward our far better seasons of 2019 and 2020. But there is no Buxton W-L magic in 2021 thus far. Another factor is when Buxton comes off the bench. In 2019-2020, the Twins were 13-0 when Buxton entered a game off the bench! But when you think about it, it makes sense -- if Buxton is getting a day off from the starting lineup, they're probably not going to bring him in except to protect a lead. (The streak ended in 2021, of course -- we're 0-1 with Buxton coming off the bench this year.) Probably even more so for Buxton compared to other players because of his excellence as a defensive replacement. Buxton also misses more time than other players, so his sample of games started is smaller and thus more prone to variance, I suspect? The guy more likely to have IL stints is more likely to have missed any given stretch of games -- could be hot streaks, could be cold streaks, but the smaller the sample, the less likely any imbalance is going to even out. Here's our 2019-2020 win-pace when various players were in the starting lineup: Buxton 107.5 Garver 105.7 Gonzalez 102.9 Rosario 102.2 Polanco 100.6 Cave 99.5 Arraez 98.9 Kepler 98.3 Cruz 97.5 Sano 94.9 No doubt Buxton is a good player and an important part of the team, and I'd definitely like our chances with him in our lineup over Sano, but our team had a 100.0 win pace over those two seasons, so I'm not sure if these numbers really represent much other than mostly random variation around that number?

I think the .295 SLG is a typo -- should be .395 which would make the .660 OPS correct.

It appears that our 9th inning outburst against Yankees legend Brooks Kriske yesterday has boosted that wRC+ all the way to 40. FYI, if you use the Fangraphs Splits Leaderboard, you can click the "MLB" split and set the filter so you get the Twins opponents collective batting line in particular situations. That way, you can compare the Twins and their opponents on the same scale. So in this case, the Twins now have a 40 wRC+ in the 9th inning and beyond -- but the Twins have allowed a 141 wRC+ in those innings! https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=139,52,53&splitArrPitch=&position=B&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=mlb&statgroup=2&startDate=2021-03-01&endDate=2021-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=season&sort=-1,1 I think the .295 is a typo here -- should be .395? Technically Fangraphs has the line at .179/.264/.393 for a .657 OPS and 79 wRC+. (And they had zero high-leverage PAs last night, so it doesn't matter that you published this article before the game.) https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=72,203&splitArrPitch=&position=B&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=mlb&statgroup=2&startDate=2021-03-01&endDate=2021-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=season&sort=-1,1 Looking at the same split for Twins opponents, we've allowed a .283/.324/.416, .741 OPS, 102 wRC+ line in high leverage situations.

You're not incorrect in that there was some controversy about taking Dobnak out so early in that game. I may have allowed him to try getting another DP grounder, or gone right to someone like Rogers. Just found a recap video -- the 3 hits they show off Dobnak (double and single in the first, and a single in the third that chased him) were all hit pretty hard. Although nothing compared to what Duffey allowed! Baseball Savant should have the exit velocities too but I don't want to bum anybody out futher. https://cuts.diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2019/2019-10/05/b7e1eb02-3f25953f-0b387047-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4

You misremembered a bit. Dobnak was pulled in his playoff start with *nobody out* and the bases loaded in the third. “Hit a ball hard” or not (I don’t recall that part, but there was a leadoff double in the 1st), Dobnak’s line was 2 IP (so 6 outs), 6 hits, and 2 BB, and no strikeouts. I didn’t like the decision to bring in Duffey again so soon after the Yankees saw him in game 1, but Dobnak’s performance was not particularly effective either, even if it was better than last night.

Simmons's offensive production has been trending down, and subjectively, it doesn't look like he's taking good approaches at the plate. I'd leave him near the bottom.

Welcome to Twins Daily! Jax came in for the 9th, not the 8th, and with a 2 run lead and only 3 more outs left, the generic Yankees win probability at that point was 93%. And that doesn't factor in that the Twins 6-7-8 hitters were due up in the 9th, or that Chapman would have come in (rather than Wandy Peralta) if the deficit had still been 2 runs. Opposing batters are only hitting .097/.214/.194 against Chapman this year, for an OPS of .409. Would have been nice to keep it close and make the Yankees use Chapman, of course, but Jax getting his feet wet against the weaker part of the Yankees order could outweigh that. At least it gave us some information about Jax's readiness.

Fangraphs analyzed this a few days ago: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-twins-are-running-out-of-time/

That's not bad, but MLB #1 hitters have a .337 OBP overall this year, and .345 vs LHP. Garlick's 2021 OBP vs LHP actually only ranked 6th among Twins in last night's lineup. (And it's down to .302 after last night's game, and .298 for his MLB career vs LHP.) Garlick's line vs LHP is still very useful, but may be better utilized further down in the order? Larnach has a .394 OBP, including a .368 OBP in a very small sample vs LHP. And only a .442 SLG with .182 ISO overall.

I'm not sure what you are arguing. No one thinks Shoemaker is any kind of star but he was a career 103 ERA+ pitcher entering this season, and that figure is still 99 even if you remove 2019. That's a league average starting pitcher. Now he may be cooked, or he may need a different role to regain that effectiveness.

Baseball Trade Values pegs Jones at $11.9 mil median value, and Cruz at $2.5 mil, so probably not. We'd have to eat Cruz's full salary right now to even make it possible by those valuations, and I'm not sure the Rays would really be interested in basically selling a good prospect like that.

How is that even possible after a 9 run first inning? I guess the big 3 run HR was after the lineup turned over. The Jays used Shoemaker for an effective 3 inning, 35 pitch start in their playoff opener last year. Admittedly he had recently missed a month of game action due to injury so he wasn't going to pitch deep into that game, but they probably would have pushed him beyond 35 pitches unless they were intentionally limiting his exposure.

I know long relief guys are out of style, but I think the Twins benefit from one right now, given the current state of the staff. If Jax isn't needed much tonight behind Pineda, then I think you potentially could see him take Shoemaker's next turn. Or Shoemaker could have a very short leash, almost an opener type situation with Jax following. I endorse Jax getting some innings over the next week. But there's probably still room for Shoemaker innings too. And I didn't mean to imply that Maeda would immediately return after one rehab start -- but the outcome of that rehab start, and Pineda's start tonight, could give the Twins a better idea of their near future SP needs.

Jax is now on the 40-man, having been added after Shoemaker's most recent start, but if you start Jax right now, then you need someone else in long relief, hence another 40-man move would need to be made. (Stashak is the only healthy pitcher left on the 40-man who's not Duran or Balazovic, and he's not a long reliever and in fact may have some of his own issues with pitching mechanics right now, not a good fit for the long relief role.) Barnes could easily be added in Shoemaker's spot, but if Maeda is back in a week or two, then you've had very little opportunity to evaluate Barnes but he's going to occupy a 40-man spot for the foreseeable future, making it more difficult to claim or evaluate other guys (someone like Andrew Vasquez perhaps, who may still have some fine-tuning to do at AAA to earn a promotion but would be a minor league free agent at the end of the season if not promoted). Rule 5 is a much more difficult threshold for losing a guy than simple waivers or minor league free agency. This FO has their Rule 5 mistakes (i.e. Nick Anderson) but Barnes doesn't fit that profile, so I trust that if Barnes doesn't earn a spot by season's end, he probably won't be claimed/lost. Ultimately we're quibbling about a week or two in a long season. 3.75 months of extended auditions are not a meaningfully more significant opportunity than 3.25-3.5 months. Heck, depending on how Pineda does tonight and Maeda in his rehab start tomorrow, I wouldn't be shocked if Shoemaker doesn't start Friday and has made his last start as a Twin. But given where we are in the season, and the current state of the roster, I understand keeping things flexible over the next few days.

Duran and Balazovic are top 100 prospects but both got hurt in camp. Not much you can do about that in March, but having 6 SP above them including Dobnak plus alternatives like Thorpe, Smeltzer, and Ober was decent depth. Of course, Thorpe and Smeltzer are on the IL now too. No org has enough "depth" to cover the amount of injury and ineffectiveness we've seen so far, but at least Duran and Balazovic are getting back into action.

Teams generally don't make roster decisions with the justification "why not?". Guys like Jax and Barnes may turn out to be useful, but throwing them onto the roster just because you're disappointed in Shoemaker is generally poor roster management, and you may wind up losing them (or other potentially useful players) before they are ready to contribute. Ober has looked intriguing in a couple spot starts, Jax is on the 40-man now, Pineda will test his forearm again in a start tomorrow, Maeda has a rehab start Wednesday, Duran is over 80 pitches, and Balazovic is back. Shoemaker's not getting cut today but it is clear he has a very finite leash. If the season is really as lost as you say it is, there will be plenty of opportunities for other guys over the next 4 months.

Mancini is 29 years old already, and like Buxton and Berrios he is set to become a free agent after 2022. I doubt the O's expect to be competitive in that time frame, their top prospects aren't even in AAA yet. Did you mean Mullins? He's only 26 and won't even be arb eligible until after 2022, FA after 2025. Means is a better asset too -- 28 but not a FA until after 2024.

Historically, Oakland seems like a good fit for Cruz -- they had the final seasons of sluggers like Frank Thomas and Mike Piazza. But Moreland hasn't been terrible, with a 105 wRC+ -- and Oakland has no place to play him other than DH, with Olson locked in a 1B. (Lowrie has a 107 wRC+ overall too, which is not bad) If Ramon Laureano is out for awhile, and Buxton really does return soon, I wonder if Oakland would make a big splash for Buxton? They've made some big trades in the past, for Holliday and Samardzija. And they'd have the option to flip Buxton in the offseason.