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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    In fairness, Pineda went and got himself suspended after the trade deadline in 2019.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    But Franmil Reyes was a position player. We don’t need those, really. We need pitching. And no one is going to trade a good performing MLB pitcher for Berrios.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    We're all frustrated by the team and by Shoemaker specifically. But the error was his signing and coaching, and the failure to sign and coach effective replacements -- not giving him 19 days to try adapting to the pen when the alternative was apparently Derek Law (again). Beau Burrows can be sent to AAA an unlimited number of times this year, while he is on the 40-man roster. He's a former #1 pick who was lousy in both AAA and limited MLB action for Detroit. He's a project who was absolutely NOT claimed to be immediately thrown into MLB action. (And he just made his first Twins AAA appearance last night.)
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    It's a 2/17 deal, with a $3 mil buyout on a 3rd year $6 mil player option (not team option). So he's guaranteed, and likely getting, 2/20. It would be 3/23 (plus some 2022 innings escalators) if he picked up the player option after 2022, but he won't do that unless he expects less than 1 year ~$3 mil on the open market (and he'd have to be pretty bad and/or injured in 2022 to expect less than that!).
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    FYI, not that it changes your larger point, but Taijuan Walker is actually on a 2 year, $20 mil contract.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Astudillo gave up his HR on a 3-0 count, although it was a remarkably fast 3-0 count:
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think they are hiding -- the front office still appears on a weekly radio show every Sunday, right? I'm not sure the owner coming out and saying "total system failure" would be particularly helpful either, especially since the team wasn't quite as buried yet as the 2016 one which generated those remarks.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I guess I'll field this one, now that Shoemaker has officially been DFA'd. Shoemaker's leash in the pen was indeed pretty short -- first relief appearance was on June 11, and last on June 30. That's less than 3 weeks. Only 3 consequential appearances, really -- the controversial first one, an effective extra innings win vs Cincinnati on June 21, and last night. I think if he had struggled vs Cincinnati, he probably would have been cut 10 days ago, which would have been one week and change in the pen. As it happened, he looked good in Cincinnati, and bought himself one more try, in which he epically failed last night. As far as replacements, while Shoemaker has been in the pen, we've lost Pineda, Dobnak, Farrell, and Duran to the IL, joining Stashak (recently moved to the 60-day IL), Smeltzer, Colina, and Thorpe. (Maeda, Thielbar, and Shaun Anderson were also on the IL at the start of Shoemaker's pen assignment, but have since been activated.) We've already had Jax and Coulombe on the 26-man roster, and ahead of Shoemaker on the pecking order; now Derek Law is returning to take Shoemaker's place. It's not a deep group at the moment. (And the point of claiming Burrows was that he has minor league options remaining, not to place him back on a MLB roster immediately.) None of this should be read as a general defense of the front office or field staff -- the Shoemaker acquisition was indeed disastrous, and the lack of viable replacements ultimately comes down on them too. But the leash itself wasn't particularly long or problematic.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    MLB draft has to be best player available for sure, but -- scouting amateur talent is still more art than science. There's going to be a lot of ties and biases at play anyway. A little bias toward pitchers or up-the-middle defenders probably isn't going to hurt.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    It's hard to say. Some guys on the major league roster now were in the minors back then... but 2017 draftees haven't had a lot of time to do much either, especially with the lost 2020 season, to say nothing of more recent draft classes: https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2017&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round And when a guy does well, who do you credit -- the drafter or the developer? Here's a Twins top 20 prospect list just before the new FO took over: https://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/11/8/13555840/minnesota-twins-top-20-prospects-for-2017
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think Donaldson meant to direct anything specific at Giolito either -- which is exactly why Giolito thinks it was classless, to loudly imply in that moment, for everyone to hear, that Giolito gave up that HR because he isn't cheating anymore. If Donaldson wants to say it to fire up his fellow hitters, that's fine -- and he can do that in the dugout, he can do it in the clubhouse, etc. and I doubt Giolito or anyone would care. No need to do it publicly on the field in front of Giolito, though (especially when Donaldson must know his own pitchers are likely in the same predicament as everyone else). FWIW, Donaldson's ejection at home plate last year was against the White Sox in Chicago too.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Donaldson was plenty loud, and the catcher was right there. I doubt Giolito heard about it from the media first. Other than being terrible this year, is there any evidence that Twins pitchers were clean in this matter? That makes Donaldson's celebration a little more odd. In that sense, you could consider that Giolito and the White Sox may have taken the high road by not naming/taunting Twins pitchers about it.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    If there was no need for him to do anything else, why did Donaldson do it? This is an odd defense of a guy who didn't just let his HR do the talking, and instead treated Giolito like that umpire he was upset with last year.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I bet Giolito is going to feel pretty silly when he realizes that, because the Royals loss last night finished just before the Twins loss, we're actually only in SECOND-to-last place -- a half-game ahead of last! * insert laughing/crying emoji slowing transforming into just a crying one *
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    "Minnesota Twins placed RHP Scott Baker on the 15-day disabled list retroactive to July 7, 2011. Right flexor strain." He did return to make a couple starts but what team wants to pay much to acquire that guy at the deadline? It's like the Sam Dyson situation in 2019 -- no way do we trade anything of value for him if he had been on the IL for arm issues earlier that month. And if the offers are minimal for a guy like Baker, might as well hold on to him and see if his health (and trade value) improves. We still had him for 2012 with a 2013 team option. My point about comp picks was entirely looking backward. For 2011, it was a good decision to let those guys walk instead of trading them. Yes, just about every draft slot has bad results historically -- that's just the nature of the draft. But as a rebuilding team, I'll take adding the #32 and #43 picks in the same year that I have the #2 pick every time over trying to find value in marginal deadline returns. Remember, the 2012 draft was the first with caps/slots too, so those #2, #32, and #43 slots could be leveraged together (like the Astros did). Obviously the calculus is different now. There is no compensation anymore for marginal or short-term free agents like Cuddyer and Kubel (or now Pineda and Cruz). We should trade those guys in 2021 if we can't get back in the race over the next few weeks. 2011 sucked on a number of levels, but there wasn't much we could have done to improve the franchise at the deadline.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Is that actually a good argument to buy, though? We have a quality offense now -- not perfect, but clearly good enough to contend. Selling for prospects that might improve the pitching staff by 2024 sort of squanders that offense. Edit: I mean buy pitching for 2022, of course!
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, the prospect graduations have been on the offensive side. But that still gives us a big leg up on 2011, when the offense was hopeless with no future. Both sides of the ball matter! I agree we need better pitching somehow (although Berrios is a better start than the 2011 team had too). I don't think a deadline teardown / rebuild is the way to quickly improve our pitching to match our offense, though -- you'll just get more prospects who are fungible relievers or 3+ years away. (If it's in exchange for expiring contracts, that's still a fine return -- but nothing that should jeopardize 2022.) We should actually be looking to trade some of our prospects for good pitching, and pony up some money for FA pitching as needed too.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Rijo yes (Lance Lynn trade), but Vallimont no (we got him along with Sergio Romo in 2019, in exchange for Lewin Diaz).
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    On 2011: Cuddyer was turned into Berrios in the 2012 draft -- far more valuable than anything we likely would have fetched for him at the deadline. Likewise, Kubel turned into the #42 overall pick which had value (although Bard didn't make it). Pavano was eating innings but was old and not all that effective -- maybe we could have gotten a Yohan Pino back for him? Baker was our best pitcher in 2011 but he had a modest track record before that and had elbow issues by early July, well before the trade deadline. And Mauer had a full no-trade clause (even beyond his health and salary which would have prevented a valuable trade return anyway). I'll grant that Perkins could have been traded for some value, although even he had a very limited track record of success at that point (2011 was basically it), no closing experience yet, and only 2 years of control beyond 2011. (And of course his willingness to sign an extension with a hometown discount before 2013 turned out pretty good too -- he was still around a affordable/effective when we next sniffed respectability again.) Pitching was a problem then as now, although Berrios is better and more valuable than any pitcher on the 2011 staff. But the 2011 Twins offense was just awful, with very little hope for the future -- that's not the case with the 2021 Twins offense.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    1. Does the system require extra re-stocking right now? (And is there a restocking fee? ) Seriously, there have been some prospect injuries to deal with, but there have also been some graduations and good performances/advancements. 2. Does selling at the deadline even provide meaningful re-stocking? 2017 gave us Littell, Enns, Moya, and Watson. 2018 looks much better, although the long-term effects remain to be seen (Alcala, Celestino, Duran, etc.). It's been a disappointing year, but we're way ahead of the 2011 disaster. The 2011 team didn't have the young controllable offensive performers that the 2021 team has (or the contributing veteran bats); the 2011 team didn't have a healthy ace like Berrios anymore either. And the problems of 2011 had been set in motion years prior. The 2021 team still has a very real opportunity to reload and contend in 2022, if our 2021 comeback attempt fizzles out over the next few weeks.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I hear you, they have been disappointing in both areas. What I was questioning was the specific claim that this is the worst Twins team ever in terms of fundamentals. That's a bigger claim than just "they've been bad at fundamentals" and it's likely being exacerbated by the pitching as I've shown (as well as recency bias and general subjectivity).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    "There are going to be bad pitches and clutch hits" seems to gloss over the fact that Twins pitchers have the 2nd worst FIP- in MLB this season -- the only team worse is Arizona (on pace to go 44-118). And our pitchers expected stats by Statcast (xBA, xSLG, xWOBACON -- a fun stat to say, by the way!) are all among the very worst too. I don't doubt that there have been fundamental mistakes. But it's quite likely that the Twins fundamentals have been tested more than other teams. Yes, it appears they are failing that test quite often, but more testing is more opportunity for exposure. It's worth considering that part of the relationship.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I wonder though -- to what degree are those mistakes being magnified by the poor pitching? A bad cutoff may not be noticed -- or may not happen at all -- if the pitchers aren't putting the team in that position with walks, lack of strikeouts, hard contact, putting us into a deep hole, etc. Also, on fundamentals -- there seems to be the perception that past generations of ballplayers were fundamentally sound despite any failings otherwise. I wonder if that is true -- this perception often seems aided by a lack of video/media exposure. Every play of modern MLB is played back, analyzed, and available to watch on-demand, which wasn't true in the 1990s to say nothing of decades before that -- heck, it's even come a long way since the early 2000s (when Gardy's successful teams were sometimes criticized by fans for being less fundamentally sound than even TK's worse years).
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    And, the offense clawed back enough to get Hendriks into the game, which could help tonight and tomorrow. Of course, we'll need to convert these strategic advantages into actual wins at some point too.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Ah, Jack Morris. The debate that will never die! B-Ref has "tOPS+" which indicates if a player does better or worse in a given situation, as compared to their overall performance. (For pitchers, under 100 would be better than normal, above 100 would be worse than normal.) Morris's career tOPS+ vs 1985 AL pitcher tOPS+ (seemed like a good midpoint year) RISP: 106 vs 108 Nobody on: 97 vs 95 Men on base: 104 vs 106 Runner on 3rd: 113 vs 114 Runners on 2nd and 3rd: 120 vs 133 Runners on 3rd with no outs: 130 vs 129 When behind: 106 vs 105 Also note that the more specific you get with the split, the smaller the sample. The real standout splits for Morris are bases loaded with 0 outs or with 2 outs, although they are among the smallest.
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