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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Over in the forums, @Musk21 shared an interesting Sports Illustrated article on Joe Ryan from late May 2021: https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/05/24/pitching-prospects-college-joe-ryan-the-opener
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Baseball Trade Values pegs this as an overpay for the Rays, although in the comments the site owner mentions that their value estimate for Joe Ryan was a little too high for some reason: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-53895/
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Drew Strotman is on the 40-man already, in his first option year. His run prevention has been solid at AAA but his K/BB rates aren't great -- looks like he's mainly been preventing HR. Joe Ryan could probably slot into the Twins rotation right now based on his AAA stats -- very strong K/BB rates. He's not on the 40-man but he is Rule 5 eligible this winter so he should get added shortly.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Garlick's season might be done. Last I heard, they were still contemplating surgery. Refsynder is closer to returning. Still, they are 30 or almost 30 year old RH outfielders, which limits their potential value pretty severely. (Refsynder has pretty much stopped playing infield -- only 1 game, 7 innings at any level since 2017.) By comparison, Max Muncy was a 27 year old LHB still active at 2B/3B when the Dodgers started playing him every day in MLB. (And Muncy is still only 30, about 7 months older than Refsynder.)
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Winder has 7.2 IP at AAA so far, Barnes might not even get protected from Rule 5 this winter, and Balazovic just completed 6 innings for the first time at AA. There is still plenty of season left for anyone deserving to get looks. Like I said upthread, I'm guessing we're not going to make any big 40-man moves until after we make our trade deadline deals.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    My guess is Jax in one of the doubleheaders, and a bullpen game in the other. Right now Jax is listed as the probable starter for St. Paul this Wednesday July 14, which would put him in line to start again during the White Sox doubleheader on Monday July 19 on normal rest. They'll obviously have a fully rested pen coming out of the all-star break this Friday, so that would be my guess for the bullpen game. Astudillo could come back at the 27th man if there is any lingering concern about Jeffers after he left the game yesterday. Beau Burrows would be another option, if they really wanted another pitcher. If a 60-day IL guy (i.e. Cave) is ready by Friday, they could activate them as the 27th man too, then option someone else out after the game.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Law and Coloumbe are both out of options, so they can't be replaced unless they are DFA'd. Not unlikely, but they'd probably have to struggle first, not simply be out of rest. 40-man roster is full at 40 right now. Cave could be coming back from the 60-day IL soon and require a spot -- could be Garlick getting transferred to the 60-day IL himself. Guessing we may not see any other 40-man additions until after the trade deadline on July 30. They may or may not need 40-man spots for some of the guys coming back to us in trades too.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    What rookie arms? It's pretty much just Ober and Jax with MLB appearances so far this year.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Like the above poster said, Liriano wasn't "simply good" after 2006. He had an ERA+ of 88 from 2008 through 2012. He was slightly above average in FIP during that time, but most of that was due to 2010 -- he was thoroughly mediocre, in FIP and ERA, in 2009, 2011, and 2012.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Technically, Detroit is still in sole possession of third place, and the Twins are in 4th. Even after the sweep, Detroit is percentage points ahead of us at 40-51 (a .440 winning percentage) vs our 39-50 (.438). We're both 15 games out of first, which is probably where Nick was looking. (Also both 11.5 back in the wild card.)
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Eh, Cruz is owed less than $6 mil now, and that will be down to about $4.6 mil by trade deadline day. The Rays are frugal but that kind of money isn't going to bridge the value gap between Cruz and Walls.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I like the idea, but Taylor Walls is a MLB ready SS, with a 50 "Future Value" grade and a top 100 overall prospect at Fangraphs. He may be a little redundant in Tampa but we're not getting him for a 2 month, 41 year old DH rental. Baseball Trade Values summarizes thusly: You could quibble that Cruz is worth a little more, or Walls a little less, but I'm afraid that gap is a little too large to bridge.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think we'd be rendering any final decisions about it on the day of the trade. But in 4 years, if that lotto ticket is a plus producer in MLB, while Pineda fizzles out almost immediately, I think we'd call it a great move by the Twins and a failed gamble by our trading partner. Which seems to be how that particular trade is described in this article (great for the Braves, failed gamble by the Twins). Agreed that there is still time to evaluate the 2018 deals, although the bar is likely higher than just Pressly's WAR (we had to trade for other relievers at the 2019 deadline and could have used those resources to supplement a different spot instead).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW. Boston has a top LHB CF prospect who is dominating AAA and is a likely call-up very soon -- Jarren Duran.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Presumably any player who has crossed the street.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    This is insulting to toast. Real toast is delicious.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup, and by the time he reached AA (or even A), Tatis Jr. was pretty much untouchable.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    In 2015, Chapman had an off-field incident that resulted in a suspension and Cincinnati trading him to New York. Pitchers and reserves are not selected by fan balloting, just player ballots and/or the commissioner's office. That said, Gregory Soto has a brief and unimpressive career resume so far, so you may be thinking of someone else.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    If you want to pick the top 5 relievers for the all-star game, Rogers actually isn’t the top 5 of AL reliever fWAR or bWAR. Chapman’s teammates Loaisiga and Green are ahead of him in both measures. So is KC’s Barlow, and Clase from Cleveland is ahead in bWAR and tied in fWAR.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    For another perspective, by Baseball-Reference’s bWAR, Rogers (0.7) is behind Soto (1.1). Soto gets punished by FIP and thus fWAR because of his high walk rate. Soto is the Tigers token representative, but you could make a case that Jose Cisnero is the better Tigers reliever and very close to Rogers. 1.0 fWAR, 0.7 bWAR for Cisnero, compared to 1.2 fWAR and 0.7 bWAR Rogers.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Chapman was fantastic until that June 10th game vs the Twins. Until that point, he had 1.2 fWAR (2nd in the AL) and 1.6 RA9-WAR (1st in the AL). Even until June 23, he was pretty much even with Rogers — Rogers had a slightly better fWAR, but Chapman had the advantage in RA9-WAR. Chapman’s stats have really plummeted over his last 3 appearances, he is basically around 0 WAR now. I wonder how recent that player balloting happened, a lot of it was probably based on that pre-June 10/23 performance.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd sign a good FA SP, and also trade for one somehow (and be willing to part with prospect capital), pairing them with Berrios for 2022. For the right guy, with 2022 team control, I'd probably even trade for him right now, like the Mets did in July 2019 with Stroman. Yeah, it would suck to pay a deadline premium when you're not really contending, but it would suck even worse to get shut out or settle for a lesser pitcher in the offseason. Still might need Pineda and/or Maeda at the very back end of the rotation, although hopefully with internal candidates applying some pressure.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    That's where I'm at -- don't trade Berrios unless we are blown away by an offer (which I doubt will happen). I mean, we may want to add a hitter or two in particular spots for 2022, sure. That's every team in every season. But overall, our offense is more or less contending quality right now and for the near future. Trading Berrios will most likely give us some combination of the following: 1. MLB ready hitters like Franmil Reyes 2. prospects that are 2-3 years away 3. pitching prospects that are ready right away but not very good (Archer-Glasnow was an outlier trade result, not the norm) Any way you slice it, trading Berrios is pretty much a punt on 2022-2023.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, we might need to replace Cruz, but when Cleveland acquired Franmil Reyes, they already had a MLB rotation of Bieber/Clevinger/Plesac/Civale (and they still had Kluber and Carrasco around as SP assets too). If we trade Berrios primarily for a position player, we’re pretty much doomed to a very long rebuild.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Same reason Robles and Alcala hadn’t pitched since last Friday either — few games (2 rainouts) and lots of big early deficits. (Rogers was warming yesterday even after Alcala put us down 2 runs in 6, but then Robles made the deficit 3+ in the 7th.) In hindsight, this series unfolded a little like the 2019 ALDS in that regard, where Rogers didn’t appear until late in the final game (and we were still trailing then anyway). That’s generally what happens when you blow games early.
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