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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Great article, but just so no one is confused, "with the same team" is not a requirement for Rule 5 eligibility or minor league free agency. Maybe "with an affiliated team" would be more accurate? Just like MLB players qualifying for arbitration or free agency, these minor league season counts continue even after a player is traded (Woods-Richardson), claimed on waivers (Ian Hamilton), or released and re-signed with a new org. And once the threshold has been met, they keep their eligibility for Rule 5 or minor league free agency every offseason after that point, unless they are on a 40-man roster.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    The player still has to be on the active MLB roster for a full season or 90 days, whichever comes last, for Rule 5 restrictions to be removed (allowing him to be optioned to the minors). Time on the injured list or rehab does not count towards that. So even if a team selected Enlow and waited out his recovery from surgery, they'd generally only get about a month of minor league rehab games for him before they'd have to activate him to the MLB roster or send him through waivers / back to the Twins. And as noted above, the 60-day IL doesn't exist during the offseason. So he'd occupy the selecting team's 40-man spot until about mid-February -- and of course, he'd continue occupying a 40-man spot in the following offseasons, if he wasn't returned to the Twins.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    The 60-day IL starts around the start of spring training. As an example, the Twins originally signed Pineda, after his surgery, on December 13, 2017. They placed him on the 60-day IL on February 17, 2018. So Enlow would take up a 40-man spot from mid-November (the usual deadline to protect guys from Rule 5) until mid-February, before he could be placed on the 60-day IL.
  4. Otto von Ballpark

    Battle for 2nd place place begins tonight! 6 games back of Cleveland, 10 head-to-head remaining...

  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Who's Ryan? You mean John Gant? After all the "who is John Gant" jokes...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    If we define "starters" as starting pitchers, the Twins roster doesn't even have five to name at the moment! Officially down to 3, at least until tomorrow's starting pitcher is announced. From ESPN's schedule:
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I appreciate the effort, but that article is very old (2007), its data even older (2004-2006), and beyond that, it is just generally flawed: https://twinsdaily.com/forums/topic/49850-624-ops-spring/page/3/?tab=comments#comment-1017903 Fortunately, if you want to do your own research in that direction, there are great public tools available. I'd recommend the Fangraphs Splits Leaderboard, as its "position" split is by position played (not position qualified for, like some other Fangraphs pages), and it can also take custom date ranges, even spanning multiple seasons: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards You'd probably need to copy and paste data into a spreadsheet to average the top 30 by PA at a given position (the PA filter only applies to the player list, not to the league-wide splits).
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Wonder if they view Gant as a starter?
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Shoemaker is always an option!
  10. Otto von Ballpark
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Where would Story play for the White Sox? They are set at SS and 3B, and just acquired Cesar Hernandez for 2B yesterday.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Gio Gonzalez is the name that jumped into my mind. Edit: maybe players named Gonzalez as more likely to be exceptions...
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    This is what evaluators do. No one can see every prospect in the country every month. And they're constantly incorporating new information into their evaluations as they receive it. Why shouldn't they? It's the same thing pro scouts do. No one is locked into giving the exact same rank/evaluation as 5 months ago. And moving from 40 to 59 isn't exactly a death sentence for the guy. It's actually relatively minor, as far as prospect rank movements go. If that bothers you, it's probably best not to pay any attention to prospect rankings at all.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    BTV uses Fangraphs valuations as part of their formula, and I know BTV updates them monthly around this part of the season. Why shouldn’t they update, with new information?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I don’t think there is any reason to suspect anything nefarious from Fangraphs. Prospect evaluators have been overwhelmed the past few weeks with the draft — I think BA hadn’t even published most of their midseason lists yet. Besides, preseason 40 (with zero pro experience) to midseason 59 is not a huge shift — basically just a value step down from 55 to 50 FV.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Shortstops can often move to other positions successfully.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I’d be interested to see that. Did you compare them to how all prospects fare in general? And how once-traded prospects fare? I don’t think the success rate of any prospect group would be super-high, but it would be interesting to see if there was a meaningful penalty for being traded / being traded multiple times.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the implication is that interest has grown, among mostly the same teams, since the Scherzer sweepstakes officially ended. (Scherzer was mentioned in the first clause of the tweet.)
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins final offer to Johan was something like 4 years, $80 million. It wasn't even close to what he got from the Mets. I'm not sure if we can conclude Santana had no interest in being here -- seems just as likely that he knew, like everyone else knew, that the Twins wouldn't pay him nearly as much as other clubs. (That same offseason, Johan had just watched Torii Hunter sign with the Angels for 5/90 after rejecting the Twins offer of 3/45, putting the situation into pretty stark relief.) Also, on reinvesting the money in other players, I believe the 3 players we signed to extensions in the immediate wake of trading Santana were Cuddyer, Nathan, and Morneau. The first two were probably poor allocations of resources, although Cuddyer did turn into the Berrios pick eventually. Morneau was much better, although as it played out, this contract extension basically just bought us his post-concussion years of 2011 and beyond (we already controlled him -- and Mauer -- through 2010).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    If Berrios is more affordable, doesn't that also imply he's not quite as difficult to replace as Johan? Not that he's easy to replace or should necessarily be traded, of course. If one was looking for a Twins statistical comp for Berrios, Scott Baker isn't too far off. Berrios is better and more consistent (on a season level) than Baker to be sure, but they are surprisingly close by a number of measures for their Twins careers: # Name ERA- FIP- xFIP- G GS IP RA9-WAR WAR 1 Johan Santana 71 76 73 251 175 1308.2 37.9 31.7 2 Jose Berrios 92 92 97 136 135 781.1 12.9 13.2 3 Scott Baker 96 94 94 163 159 958.0 16.2 15.8 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=c,117,118,119,7,8,13,212,59&season=2021&month=0&season1=2000&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=6176,14168,755&startdate=2000-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31 Berrios is ~2.5 years younger than when Baker threw his last pitch for the Twins, though, so he has a chance to get better.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    And if the trade offers for Pineda are unsatisfactory, I wonder if we could see a deadline day contract extension announcement, like Kurt Suzuki circa 2014?
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I love the wording of that tweet, which seems to imply that the interest level has grown on Happ since last night. Although morbid curiosity is a type of interest!
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    The Padres were right there with the Dodgers on Scherzer and likely want to pivot to another big splash (at least the next big splash) before the deadline.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    The Dodgers have flexed their spending power at times, but the primary factor of their success — and their ability to swing trades like this one — seems to be a great farm system.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, the Dodgers released Chargois in 2019 so he could pursue an opportunity in Japan. Not that he would have been guaranteed to be claimed otherwise, but teams have a gentleman’s agreement not to claim such players on release waivers. (And guys who establish themselves as stars in Japan can negotiate early free agency if they decide to come back to MLB, like Miles Mikolas.) There is still minor league free agency. Players with parts of 7 seasons on a pro roster or injured list (majors or minors) can elect free agency if they are not on a 40-man roster at the end of the season. Still subject to the normal MLB service time rules, arbitration, etc. if/when they are added to a 40-man roster again. And that potential control makes players like Chargois more attractive to new teams. Seattle and other teams would likely have less interest in giving an opportunity to a 30 year old Chargois this year if he was guaranteed MLB free agency at the end of the season. Rather than immediate free agency, guys in his position might derive a greater net benefit from a higher minimum salary, earlier arbitration, etc.
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