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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    They've been in different hitting environments -- I notice all of Godoy's AAA experience has been in the hitter-friendly PCL to date. Since 2018, a season they both spent mostly in high-A despite Godoy being 3 years older, Rortvedt has a cumulative 106 wRC+ in the minor leagues (809 PA), as compared to Godoy's 102 (882 PA).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    That's a good point. Those were Fangraphs projections, and you can check out their current Twins depth chart and WAR projections here: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=8 Presumably if we signed Story, some of the PAs for Gordon and Lewis dry up, but the largest net effect could be fewer PAs for Urshela. Urshela is projected for 2.0 WAR in 539 PA, and Story at 4.5 in 644 PA, so depending on how they apportion the playing time, it could net us +2 WAR?
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I have to agree that this doesn't make any sense at all. Morneau's wRC+ with Colorado was 119. He didn't touch that in his 3 prior seasons, or his 1 season after. I'm not sure that his earlier, pre-concussion peak performance in Minnesota is at all relevant in judging his Colorado numbers. Another guy claimed to decline in Colorado is Giambi. But he had a 111 wRC+ with Colorado -- similar story to Morneau, he had a much greater earlier peak, but he came to Colorado fresh off of a 91 in Oakland, and left Colorado for 81 and 44 marks with Cleveland.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Romo posted the worst K% and ERA+ of his career in 2021 (plus one of his higher BB%). His career may not be quite finished, but those would seem to qualify as "signs of stopping." This seems to be a list of former Twins who haven't yet retired, rather than a list of good relievers to sign. In which case, why didn't Fernando Rodney make the list? He hasn't seen MLB game action since 2019 but he is not officially retired -- in fact, he was a dominant closer for the hitter-friendly Mexican League champ Tijuana in 2021, including saving game 7 of the championship series! Fernando Rodney keeps plugging away
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually a 1.303 WHIP and 1.9 K/W ratio are not good. Both are worse than league average, and represent the worst marks of Clippard's relief career dating back to 2009. Now, it was a small sample and Clippard might rebound, but those two measures are not evidence of good performance.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Hope springs eternal in this report from KARE 11, as Twins spring training gets underway at Tinker Field in Orlando, Florida. Kent Hrbek hits a 3-run home run and adds a great defensive play as the Twins beat Boston. Chip Hale and Paul Sorrento each hit home runs in their quest to be named the Sire of Fort Myers Overlord of Orlando, but catcher Orlando Mercado's 3 hits (and first name) might prevail in that contest. Watch more of that newscast here. Presented in partnership with TC Media Now. View full video
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Hope springs eternal in this report from KARE 11, as Twins spring training gets underway at Tinker Field in Orlando, Florida. Kent Hrbek hits a 3-run home run and adds a great defensive play as the Twins beat Boston. Chip Hale and Paul Sorrento each hit home runs in their quest to be named the Sire of Fort Myers Overlord of Orlando, but catcher Orlando Mercado's 3 hits (and first name) might prevail in that contest. Watch more of that newscast here. Presented in partnership with TC Media Now.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, there are definitely a lot of variables, which is why I didn't attempt to analyze. But I couldn't let a spreadsheet go to waste!
  9. Otto von Ballpark
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    The Reds fire sale continues: Winker and Suarez to Seattle. At least this time, they received some MLB ready players too: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/03/mariners-finalizing-deal-to-acquire-jesse-winker-from-reds.html
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I collected the current 2022 Fangraphs projections for the players we've acquired and/or sent away the past few days. Because of all the variables, I don't know quite what to make of it yet, but here it is: Player PA or IP fWAR Salary Donaldson 581 3.5 $21 Kiner-Falefa 546 2.1 ~$4.9 Rortvedt 326 1.5 $0.7 Urshela 539 2.0 $6.55 Sanchez 384 1.2 ~$7.9 Gray 160 2.4 $10.7 Garver 497 2.6 $3.1 FWIW, Trevor Story currently projects for 644 PA and 4.5 WAR, at an estimated salary of $21-25 mil.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Previous attempts involved Ruben Sierra, Carl Pavano, and Phil Hughes. Edit to add: and John Ryan Murphy.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    They traded their mind to NYY, but all signs point to them quickly acquiring another mind via trade or FA.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Reds fans reactions are apparently a trending topic on Twitter:
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Gray will be 34 years old after the 2023 season. He's not going to be difficult to retain on a short-term contract/extension, if we want him.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Those FA starters may have cost more, leaving less room for other additions, and/or been not as good in the team's eyes. I mean, there's a finite number of these guys -- it's possible the team liked Sonny Gray more than the comparably priced FA starters (Alex Cobb? Alex Wood? Yusei Kikuchi?).
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    How would we feel about this trade if we were Reds fans? The Reds aren't a great team, but they've been in the hunt the last 2 years. They have the reigning 2021 NL Rookie of the Year (Jonathan India), plus an elite prospect on the cusp of MLB (Hunter Greene). They don't have anyone significant who is in their walk year in 2022, and Joey Votto looks like he may have some baseball life left. And they were already an estimated $10 mil below their 2021 payroll, and $14 mil below 2019. I think many of their fans would have wanted an immediate addition to the roster, and would be be frustrated that instead they shed further payroll in exchange for a guy that they passed on in the last draft (Reds picked 17th, Petty was chosen 26th), with no track record, who is at least 3-4 years away from contributing anything (if he contributes anything).
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Just above mediocre? Gray's WAA (Wins Above Average) ranked 30th among all MLB pitchers last year. He ranked 6th by that measure in 2019. Gray's WAA has been higher than that of Berrios in each of the last 3 seasons.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Gray will be 34 years old by then. We should be able to extend him or re-sign him, if we want — he’s unlikely to get a big long-term offer from anyone at that age.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I take it you don't like replay challenges to see if a guy came off the base. I agree, but "allowing for a short lack of contact" wouldn't fix it -- it would just change the criteria from "did he come off the base?" to "did he come off the base enough?". The only way to address that would be to change the replay rules. If we could get rid of the challenge system, and replace it with an extra replay ump on a short time limit, that would probably take care of it -- just overturn the obviously wrong calls, but don't spend a few minutes looking at a runner's contact with a base in slow-motion.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    The players union never even proposed a salary floor, and their top proposal for a minimum salary (the de facto salary floor) was only ~$800k or so -- roughly $21 mil for a 26-man roster. The frugal A's have been through several cycles of trading established players for prospects, and haven't picked higher than #6 overall since 1998. All of these new draft rules seem to be a solution in search of a problem.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    At its core, baseball is about a cycle of repetition. The beauty of the game lies in this cycle of repetition. Ugliness in the game is in the same cycle of repetition. Did I mention there is a cycle of repetition?
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    WCCO talks to Minnesota fans about the MLB player's strike, just days after MLB cancelled the 1994 playoffs and World Series. Includes some archival footage of Met Stadium and its demolition. Watch the rest of that newscast here. Presented in partnership with TC Media Now. View full video
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    WCCO talks to Minnesota fans about the MLB player's strike, just days after MLB cancelled the 1994 playoffs and World Series. Includes some archival footage of Met Stadium and its demolition. Watch the rest of that newscast here. Presented in partnership with TC Media Now.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I looked into this before, and Jax's "first time through the order" success was likely overrated.
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