Otto von Ballpark

Romo posted the worst K% and ERA+ of his career in 2021 (plus one of his higher BB%). His career may not be quite finished, but those would seem to qualify as "signs of stopping." This seems to be a list of former Twins who haven't yet retired, rather than a list of good relievers to sign. In which case, why didn't Fernando Rodney make the list? He hasn't seen MLB game action since 2019 but he is not officially retired -- in fact, he was a dominant closer for the hitter-friendly Mexican League champ Tijuana in 2021, including saving game 7 of the championship series! Fernando Rodney keeps plugging away

Actually a 1.303 WHIP and 1.9 K/W ratio are not good. Both are worse than league average, and represent the worst marks of Clippard's relief career dating back to 2009. Now, it was a small sample and Clippard might rebound, but those two measures are not evidence of good performance.

Hope springs eternal in this report from KARE 11, as Twins spring training gets underway at Tinker Field in Orlando, Florida. Kent Hrbek hits a 3-run home run and adds a great defensive play as the Twins beat Boston. Chip Hale and Paul Sorrento each hit home runs in their quest to be named the Sire of Fort Myers Overlord of Orlando, but catcher Orlando Mercado's 3 hits (and first name) might prevail in that contest. Watch more of that newscast here. Presented in partnership with TC Media Now. View full video

Yeah, there are definitely a lot of variables, which is why I didn't attempt to analyze. But I couldn't let a spreadsheet go to waste!

The Reds fire sale continues: Winker and Suarez to Seattle. At least this time, they received some MLB ready players too: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/03/mariners-finalizing-deal-to-acquire-jesse-winker-from-reds.html

I collected the current 2022 Fangraphs projections for the players we've acquired and/or sent away the past few days. Because of all the variables, I don't know quite what to make of it yet, but here it is: Player PA or IP fWAR Salary Donaldson 581 3.5 $21 Kiner-Falefa 546 2.1 ~$4.9 Rortvedt 326 1.5 $0.7 Urshela 539 2.0 $6.55 Sanchez 384 1.2 ~$7.9 Gray 160 2.4 $10.7 Garver 497 2.6 $3.1 FWIW, Trevor Story currently projects for 644 PA and 4.5 WAR, at an estimated salary of $21-25 mil.

Previous attempts involved Ruben Sierra, Carl Pavano, and Phil Hughes. Edit to add: and John Ryan Murphy.

They traded their mind to NYY, but all signs point to them quickly acquiring another mind via trade or FA.

Reds fans reactions are apparently a trending topic on Twitter:

Gray will be 34 years old after the 2023 season. He's not going to be difficult to retain on a short-term contract/extension, if we want him.

Those FA starters may have cost more, leaving less room for other additions, and/or been not as good in the team's eyes. I mean, there's a finite number of these guys -- it's possible the team liked Sonny Gray more than the comparably priced FA starters (Alex Cobb? Alex Wood? Yusei Kikuchi?).

How would we feel about this trade if we were Reds fans? The Reds aren't a great team, but they've been in the hunt the last 2 years. They have the reigning 2021 NL Rookie of the Year (Jonathan India), plus an elite prospect on the cusp of MLB (Hunter Greene). They don't have anyone significant who is in their walk year in 2022, and Joey Votto looks like he may have some baseball life left. And they were already an estimated $10 mil below their 2021 payroll, and $14 mil below 2019. I think many of their fans would have wanted an immediate addition to the roster, and would be be frustrated that instead they shed further payroll in exchange for a guy that they passed on in the last draft (Reds picked 17th, Petty was chosen 26th), with no track record, who is at least 3-4 years away from contributing anything (if he contributes anything).

Just above mediocre? Gray's WAA (Wins Above Average) ranked 30th among all MLB pitchers last year. He ranked 6th by that measure in 2019. Gray's WAA has been higher than that of Berrios in each of the last 3 seasons.

Gray will be 34 years old by then. We should be able to extend him or re-sign him, if we want — he’s unlikely to get a big long-term offer from anyone at that age.

I take it you don't like replay challenges to see if a guy came off the base. I agree, but "allowing for a short lack of contact" wouldn't fix it -- it would just change the criteria from "did he come off the base?" to "did he come off the base enough?". The only way to address that would be to change the replay rules. If we could get rid of the challenge system, and replace it with an extra replay ump on a short time limit, that would probably take care of it -- just overturn the obviously wrong calls, but don't spend a few minutes looking at a runner's contact with a base in slow-motion.

The players union never even proposed a salary floor, and their top proposal for a minimum salary (the de facto salary floor) was only ~$800k or so -- roughly $21 mil for a 26-man roster. The frugal A's have been through several cycles of trading established players for prospects, and haven't picked higher than #6 overall since 1998. All of these new draft rules seem to be a solution in search of a problem.

At its core, baseball is about a cycle of repetition. The beauty of the game lies in this cycle of repetition. Ugliness in the game is in the same cycle of repetition. Did I mention there is a cycle of repetition?

WCCO talks to Minnesota fans about the MLB player's strike, just days after MLB cancelled the 1994 playoffs and World Series. Includes some archival footage of Met Stadium and its demolition. Watch the rest of that newscast here. Presented in partnership with TC Media Now. View full video

I looked into this before, and Jax's "first time through the order" success was likely overrated.

Cross-posting from the forum thread: This is a cheap contract, and Bundy still has some upside. But outside of 11 starts in 2020, he's never been much better than average by ERA or ERA predictors: # Season Name Team G GS IP ERA- FIP- xFIP- K% BB% HR/FB 1 2016 Dylan Bundy BAL 36 14 109.2 95 107 109 21.9% 8.9% 13.3% 2 2017 Dylan Bundy BAL 28 28 169.2 95 96 109 21.8% 7.3% 11.5% 3 2018 Dylan Bundy BAL 31 31 171.2 128 117 101 24.5% 7.2% 17.8% 4 2019 Dylan Bundy BAL 30 30 161.2 102 97 100 23.1% 8.3% 16.4% 5 2020 Dylan Bundy LAA 11 11 65.2 74 65 84 27.0% 6.4% 8.2% 6 2021 Dylan Bundy LAA 23 19 90.2 139 126 109 21.2% 8.6% 19.2% Also worth noting that, just like how Maeda exclusively faced bottom-third offenses in 2020 due to the all-central division schedule, Bundy managed to load up on weaker hitting opponents in 2020 too: SEA 3 OAK 3 TEX 2 ARI 1 SFG 1 HOU 1 And this is 2020, when SFG and HOU were both mediocre in the regular season. That's 9 of his 11 starts vs below average run scoring teams; 10 of 11 vs below average HR hitting teams. Bundy completely missed the two best west division teams (Dodgers and Padres) and Colorado / Coors Field. So I'd guess the realistic upside here is average, which is still plenty valuable even on the $11 mil team option, if Bundy manages to achieve it -- but still leaves something to be desired at the top of the rotation.

Yes, I think the minor league salary of a split contract remains in effect, regardless of whether the player is optioned to the minors or outrighted to the minors. (And I'm guessing it's also what is owed if the player is released.)

And of course, the only reason for Cave to sign a $800k/$300k split contract with the Twins was if he knew the likely alternative was clearing waivers and getting outrighted before the tender deadline (in which case, he'd get nothing but normal, non-guaranteed minor league pay, less than $300k). If there was a decent chance of getting claimed and/or tendered a 2022 contract via arbitration, Cave would have never signed this split contract in the first place.