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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    And of course, the only reason for Cave to sign a $800k/$300k split contract with the Twins was if he knew the likely alternative was clearing waivers and getting outrighted before the tender deadline (in which case, he'd get nothing but normal, non-guaranteed minor league pay, less than $300k). If there was a decent chance of getting claimed and/or tendered a 2022 contract via arbitration, Cave would have never signed this split contract in the first place.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think the Cave contract was necessary to help him clear waivers at all. Assuming Cave hadn't already agreed to a 2022 contract, a team claiming him on waivers right now would have had to tender him a contract for 2022 as today is the tender deadline. In Cave's case, with 3 years service time, that means salary arbitration if the two sides can't come to an agreement by January. MLBTR estimated a $1.1 mil arbitration award for Cave. And arbitration contracts are NOT split contracts -- if Cave was optioned or outrighted to the minors by his new club, at any time before or during the 2022 season, he'd still get the full $1.1 mil. (His new club could have released -- not outrighted -- Cave before opening day with 30-45 days termination pay, approx. $177k-$266k.) I think Cave was arguably more attractive on waivers with the $800k/$300k split contract that he signed with the Twins. Any claiming team would have had the benefit of paying him only $300k as minor league depth for 2022, without the risk of having to pay his full salary or arb award if he didn't make the majors (or having to pay $177k-$266k just to release him before opening day).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Ladies and gentlemen, meet Moe Jauer! Bats right, throws left. 5 feet, 6 inches tall. Plays every position except catcher and first base. Signed a contract for eight dollars, paid over 184 million years. LACTOSE INTOLERANT.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    What if, when they add the DH to the National League, they add an extra DH to the American League? Surely, Nelson Cruz would have a place in a Twins 10-man batting order!
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    BREAKING: According to sources, the Twins have reserved a local picnic shelter in anticipation of a reunion with Nelson Cruz. Evites will be sent out soon. As is customary for the Twins, the event will be BYOB.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Every player falls apart eventually. And good players often fall apart while they're still under a good contract -- that's just how the system generally works, and teams simply try to position themselves so those "fall apart" seasons/ages don't happen until closer to the end of the contract. Lorenzo Cain and Charlie Blackmon started their currents contracts the season they turned 32 years old, and they still performed well for at least a season or two beyond that. Buxton is still only 27 years old, so he has 5 more full seasons until he turns 33.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I like all of these targets, it just might take a bit more to land them. Next year is Stroman's age 31 season, so I think he's probably aiming for more total dollars rather than AAV. Your 3/70 deal could beat the Fangraphs median crowdsource estimate of 4/72, but it would fall short of the average crowdsource (~4/83), Ben Clemens (4/100), and MLBTR (5/110) estimates. There's also enough demand at shortstop that it might be hard for the market to "dry up" too much for Story. MLBTR says "Astros, Rangers, Yankees, Tigers, Twins, Angels, Phillies, and Cardinals" could pursue Story. And a few of those teams aren't going to be able to afford or land Correa or Seager, so they'll probably focus more on the next tier. (And if Semien and Taylor sign somewhere else to play more second base, it doesn't necessarily hurt Story's market.)
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Your Stroman and Story contracts are lower than virtually all of the estimates at Fangraphs and MLB Trade Rumors. Even if the market proves to be team-friendly, it would be rather surprising for the Twins to win the bidding at those prices, with no history or geographic connection to either player. Seems like they'd have a lot of suitors at that level. Your Gallen trade also seems off. Aside from falling short on value at BaseballTradeValues.com, it's just not a package of players that the Diamondbacks would be seeking. They already have two cost-controlled catchers (Kelly and Varsho, each valued higher than Jeffers). And Rogers would just be a rental that they'd have to flip. I think you'd need a package at least on par with Martin + Woods-Richardson, if not higher (Gallen is still pre-arb, and has 4 years of control left, so less urgency to move him).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Are there many Blue Jays fans complaining about losing Jeff Kent? Borderline HOF career, but that was the price they paid for David Cone en route to winning the title in 1992.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I just located video of the Martha Stewart segment, pumpkin carving with chainsaws: Martha Stewart on David Letterman pumpkin carving for Halloween 1991
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Under the current rules, the Twins would not lose the #8 pick for signing Ray. See the draft pick compensation rules here: Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent So at worst, we'd have to forfeit our 2nd round pick (and that's only if we receive a competitive balance pick between rounds 1 & 2). And even if there's a new CBA soon, I doubt that would change much for the Twins (and I suspect any new rules may not affect QO comp picks until next offseason). FWIW, every team's highest first-round pick is exempt from forfeiture under the current CBA. And the previous CBA (2012-2016) protected the top 10 picks.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Fresh off his infamous 10 inning shutout performance in game seven, 1991 World Series MVP Jack Morris appears on Late Night with David Letterman. Presented in partnership with TC Media Now. View full video
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Fresh off his infamous 10 inning shutout performance in game seven, 1991 World Series MVP Jack Morris appears on Late Night with David Letterman. Presented in partnership with TC Media Now.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Spoken like a true Wiener Winner.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure when exactly it started, but my first "student nights" at the Dome were $5 for lower deck LF, which was still $10 general admission. That section became reserved seating around 2004, I believe, with student tickets moving to the outfield upper deck, although with a price cut to $3 (half the normal price of $6).
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    For whatever reason, I never minded night games in the Dome. The only bummer was day games, when you'd see the sunlight making the white roof very bright. Although that was balanced a bit by a few rainy days spent inside the Dome too! Or even snowy days, especially for TwinsFest and Gophers baseball. Edit to add: also, I enjoyed the day games on very HOT days. Actually went to a few games at the Dome just for the air conditioning!
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    You're right, and I didn't mean to be too harsh on him. He'll be starting somewhere, I just don't know if anyone will give the Twins value in return for the privilege. Sano is a good MLB hitter, but he puts the Twins in a tricky position, because he's not great but he's also not a great value. I think most teams will go internal, aim higher, or aim for better value before they'd give the Twins something decent for Sano. I see NL teams like the Mets already have their DH -- Cano is coming back, plus they have stone-glove JD Davis on the roster. The Giants have Ruf and Wade plus older players to rotate through. Then there's teams like the Brewers or rebuilding clubs who might be looking for value, like their Vogelbach/Tellez 1B solution. On the open market for bats without much defensive value, there will be Cruz, Soler, Schwarber, possibly JD Martinez and Castellanos if they opt-out. Also guys like Belt and Canha who can play the field but are getting older.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    If anyone is interested, Celestino is playing for Toros del Este in the Dominican Winter League now, and MLB.TV just added live streams for all of those games.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    And they were all from the NL, without the DH!
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I wonder what kind of pitching we could get for Arraez? He reminds me a bit of Nick Madrigal, whom the White Sox flipped for two reliever rentals (Kimbrel and Tepera).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Donaldson's never really played first? 8 innings since 2013, it appears.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Sanó is due $9.25 mil in 2022 salary, but he is also guaranteed a $2.75 mil buyout for 2023 too (or a $14 mil team option). So it's really more like one year at $12 mil, or 2 years at $23,25 mil. I don't know that the universal DH helps Sanó's trade value all that much. A lot of NL teams already have a guy or two they'd like to slot in at DH (or do a DH rotation), and if not, there are enough defensively-challenged slugger types in MLB that guaranteeing ~$12 mil for one isn't much of a bargain. And Sanó just wasn't good in 2021: 0.9 bWAR, 0.5 fWAR, in pretty much a full season of action. Per B-Ref, he would have only gained about 0.3 WAR from trading his negative defense (-8 runs Rfield) for full-time DH duty (an additional -5 or so runs Rpos). I guess someone might take his salary, hoping for a 2019 bounceback and flipping him, especially if there is some kind of team salary floor implemented in the new CBA, but it's hard to see us getting any player value back for him.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    As part of a special broadcast, WCCO follows the pandemonium of fan celebration around the Twin Cities area in the wake of the Twins winning their first World Series since moving to the state in 1961. See the full broadcast here. Presented in partnership with TC Media Now. View full video
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    As part of a special broadcast, WCCO follows the pandemonium of fan celebration around the Twin Cities area in the wake of the Twins winning their first World Series since moving to the state in 1961. See the full broadcast here. Presented in partnership with TC Media Now.
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