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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    That's all fair, I didn't mean to nitpick. I guess I read it from the perspective of a hypothetical Seattle fan, surprised that their team's offense received a compliment. But you're right -- as bad as Seattle's hitters have been overall this season (.210/.288/.368, .656 OPS, 87 wRC+), they are .257/.328/.462, .790 OPS and 118 wRC+ with runners in scoring position, when they manage to get in that situation (23.0% of their PA). Twins are .244/.316/.433, .749 OPS and 106 wRC+ overall, but only .229/.318/.393, .712 OPS and 95 wRC+ with RISP (24.5% of our PA). League is .250/.339/.412, .751 OPS and 105 wRC+ with RISP (25.0% of PA).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    The Seattle strikes are mostly touching the zone though. I count 5 Twins strikes off the zone on that side, vs only 2 for Seattle. But Seattle got a low strike too, and the Twins may have lost a few strikes high or on the other side according to the balls chart.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Here's the called strike chart for each team: Seems like the Twins got a few more strikes off that side of the plate, although it's possible the Twins pitchers were just attacking that spot more often. Here's the called balls chart for each team: Link (you have to click "Illustrator" under the score box to toggle the pitch charts): https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?date=6/14/2021&gamePk=633716&chartType=pitch&legendType=pitchName&playerType=pitcher&inning=&count=&pitchHand=&batSide=&descFilter=Ball&ptFilter=&resultFilter=&hf=
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Twins were 1-for-7 with RISP; Seattle, 2-for-9 (the extra hit perhaps offset by a GIDP).
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    The only time Dobnak has pitched in the 8th inning of a close game this season, he started the 6th and pitched through the 8th pretty well vs Boston (3 IP, 2 H, 1 R). He has not pitched the 9th inning of any close games. He did pitch the 10th inning on opening day, but extra innings is a traditional spot to use a long reliever when necessary (we already went through 5 relievers that game after Maeda only went 4.1 innings): https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=dobnara01&t=p&year=2021
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually Texas took 3 of 4 from us in Minneapolis. Although sadly it doesn’t stand out as particularly memorable among the many disappointing moments of this season so far...
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    There's some data that Rogers isn't as effective back-to-back. And letting him go another inning would preclude even attempting to pitch him for more than 3 outs the following day, if necessary. The Twins may have still done it (let Rogers pitch a full inning down 1 Friday) except that they had already used Farrell and Robles while trailing the night before. There are some limits to how often you can pursue that strategy!
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you might be misinterpreting that line of reasoning. It is about conservation of resources. Rogers absolutely could have thrown another inning after his 3 pitches, but that could have impacted his availability/effectiveness for the following game. So Baldelli made the calculation that it wasn’t worth it, down by 1 at that point. Folks can and do still disagree with that, of course.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    As far as roster predictions, swapping Pineda for Maeda and Celestino for Buxton both seem pretty obvious. The question is, who goes down to make room for Arraez? Astudillo could be optioned Kirilloff (ankle) could get 10 days of rest on the IL, maybe a AAA rehab tuneup Dobnak could be optioned Shoemaker could be released They could bring in a new pitcher too, although Jax is rested so they could wait to do that until he is used again.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    As Shoemaker's relief leash draws near its close, I'll drop this line of debate, but I just want to clarify that I wasn't trying to diss Barnes upthread! If the season ended today and he wasn't on the 40-man, I don't think he'd be a likely Rule 5 loss, but of course the season doesn't end today -- Barnes may get a chance very soon and do well.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Tom actually misstated it: Jeffers at #6 was due up first in the 9th on Friday night, followed by 7-8-9 as listed. Not without their redeeming qualities, but the batters due up were a collective 0-for-9 for the night up to that point, followed by 1-for-3 Celestino. And it would take two baserunners from that group to bring the top of the order up. And it’s not that Baldelli refuses to use his better relievers in his such situations — but he just used several while trailing the day before. You can’t necessarily pursue that strategy every day.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    As of tomorrow (Maeda activation), the Twins will have 6 starters plus Duran still in AAA. We could probably use a few relief innings covered over the next few weeks, but a handful of veteran SP with $100+ mil in career earnings who haven't thrown as much as a spring training pitch in 2021 do not represent better or more realistic options to fill that need than simply giving a second relief appearance to Shoemaker. Just like I correctly suggested last week, that Shoemaker may not make his next start even though he wasn't officially bounced yet, I'm going to guess that Shoemaker won't have a long leash in the pen either if our need for higher leverage innings persists and his upcoming relief performances look more like his 9th inning Friday night rather than his 8th.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    This was the fan complaint a week ago when they didn’t DFA Shoemaker or announce his removal from the rotation immediately after his implosion vs KC. But guess what? They added Jax to the 40-man immediately after that game, they bounced Shoemaker from the rotation before his next turn, and Jax ended up with over twice the innings of Shoemaker for the week. This front office has promoted pitchers aggressively when they believe they are ready — Dobnak and Ober as chief examples on the current roster. Barnes himself went from high-A to AAA in 2019. There is no evidence that they are withholding a ready MLB promotion to anyone out of some obligation toward Shoemaker, just because they are not rushing to satisfy your DFA bloodlust after a single Shoemaker relief appearance.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    They don’t necessarily have to add Barnes, that’s the thing — I don’t think he looks like a particularly likely Rule 5 pick. So the Twins can take their time with him — he is still just 25 and left handed. If they don’t think he’s likely to be successful in MLB at the moment, why should they betray that judgement just because Shoemaker has been a disaster and postseason is unlikely? In that case, Barnes likely blocks a better prospect from being added to the 40-man this winter, or gets claimed on waivers if we try to remove him. That sounds like compounding one mistake with another, and a poor use of resources. They could just follow their present judgement on Barnes, keep him in AAA off the 40-man roster, perhaps even into next season, and continue working on new things with him until they think his odds of MLB success have improved. I get it, you are frustrated by Shoemaker. We all are. But he’s not going to be allowed to put up numbers like this for the next 3.5 months. He’s already been bounced from the rotation. He’s not going to block anybody who really needs a look.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I don’t know that I’d be any more confident in Barnes right now than Shoemaker in relief, for example. And of course, if Barnes struggles but you still think he could potentially be useful down the road with some more work in the minors, he can be optioned but he can’t be replaced on the 40-man roster. On the other hand, if/when Shoemaker is deemed unviable in the pen, he can be cut and replaced.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    It is a little tricky because there are so many injured pitchers on the 40-man right now. And you can’t outright an injured player to the minors, only trade or release.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    They could be trying to salvage something from Shoemaker as a reliever.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Those two explanations from Baldelli are a bit contradictory -- part of the reason we could potentially run out of pitchers by the 11th is that he pulled a rested Rogers after only 3 pitches, and used our presumed "long man" Shoemaker to pitch the top of the 8th with a 1-run deficit (and the top of our order due up in the bottom of the 8th).
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    On bringing Shoemaker into the game, then out for a second inning:
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Pineda is a FA after 2021, and he’s already 32 years old, so a trade seems to make more sense than an extension. You could trade him and even re-sign him in the off-season, if you really wanted.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Entering last night, Larnach had a .412 AVG and .500 OBP over the last 7 days; Kirilloff, .368 and .400. Larnach had a 5 game hit streak, reaching base multiple times in 4 of them.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Who would you have brought up? Every healthy pitcher on the 40-man is already on the 26-man roster, except starting prospects Duran and Balazovic who are still stretching out. There’s not even an obvious non-40 man candidate to replace Shoemaker at the moment. Also, the 6th inning pitcher was protecting a lead; the 8th inning pitcher was facing a deficit. The earlier situation was actually higher leverage — by gmLI, it was 1.45, compared to 0.92 for the later situation.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    And on Ober/Alcala: it seems Ober could have started the 6th inning, with the Astros top 4 already out of the way, but it would have been with a quick leash. And Alcala seems the like the type not to bring in with runners on base.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Alcala started the 6th with a 1 run lead; Shoemaker the 8th with a 1 run deficit. That part makes sense to me. Rogers had already been used in the 7th. Perhaps you meant Robles? He was loosening up as the 9th began, but unfortunately the tie got away from us quickly — Straw singled, took second on a passed ball, then scored on Maldonado’s double. If Maldonado had successfully laid down a sac bunt as he was trying to do before he got to 2 strikes, I suspect we would have seen Robles relieve Shoemaker. But once the run scored, it probably wasn’t worth it anymore.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Ober faced the top of the Astros lineup a third time in the 5th, arguably their 4 best hitters. For whatever reason, Ober has not pitched deep into games this year, either at AAA or in MLB. Pitch counts so far 60, 64, 82 (MLB debut), 70, 79, 51 (return to MLB, perhaps on short notice), 73. This is only the 2nd time he has completed 5 innings. I think this goes above Rocco. Here are Ober’s innings as a pro: 2017: 28 (84 combined with college) 2018: 75 2019: 78.2 2020: 0 2021: 29 so far
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