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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Shouldn't be necessary yet -- the roster is only at 39, and Maeda and Enlow can both be placed on the 60-day IL to open two additional spots.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    110 video games? Probably not, unless he's pulling a Lew Ford and bringing his desktop computer on road trips.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Blue Jays, A’s Finalizing Matt Chapman Trade
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Hope springs eternal in this report from KARE 11, as Twins spring training gets underway at Tinker Field in Orlando, Florida. Kent Hrbek hits a 3-run home run and adds a great defensive play as the Twins beat Boston. Chip Hale and Paul Sorrento each hit home runs in their quest to be named the Sire of Fort Myers Overlord of Orlando, but catcher Orlando Mercado's 3 hits (and first name) might prevail in that contest. Watch more of that newscast here. Presented in partnership with TC Media Now. View full video
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Hope springs eternal in this report from KARE 11, as Twins spring training gets underway at Tinker Field in Orlando, Florida. Kent Hrbek hits a 3-run home run and adds a great defensive play as the Twins beat Boston. Chip Hale and Paul Sorrento each hit home runs in their quest to be named the Sire of Fort Myers Overlord of Orlando, but catcher Orlando Mercado's 3 hits (and first name) might prevail in that contest. Watch more of that newscast here. Presented in partnership with TC Media Now.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I decided to look up the road wRC+ of Rockies hitters. Wasn't sure how far back to go, so I used 2002, the year they installed the humidor at Coors Field. Here's the link to the Fangraphs report: Rockies hitters, 2002-2021, road stats only Among the most experienced Rockies, Story is about 20% (per road wRC+) behind Helton, Hawpe, and Tulowitzki. He's also behind Arenado and Holliday, but only about 10%. He's close to Seth Smith, Blackmon, and Carlos Gonzalez. FWIW, Smith played for 6 more years after leaving Colorado and was a pretty successful hitter in that time. Among guys worse than Story in this measure, Dickerson and LeMahieu still hit pretty well after leaving the Rockies. A lot of guys further down the list weren't good hitters anywhere. Not super-encouraging for Story, but I imagine if his road stats were significantly better, he might be looking at a $275+ mil contract like Arenado got.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Welcome to Twins Daily! I was intrigued enough by this proposal to enter into BaseballTradeValues.com: Of course, teams likely have different internal valuations, but FWIW, the Matt Olson trade today was almost spot-on: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-75821/
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, there are definitely a lot of variables, which is why I didn't attempt to analyze. But I couldn't let a spreadsheet go to waste!
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know if it is as simple as that. Specialization has increased rapidly in the sport. Marathon games are too infrequent for teams to change that approach. But when one of those marathon games happens, the players bear most of the burden on their health, effectiveness, and even roster status (teams may have to juggle the roster, but the players are the ones who will get benched, optioned, or waived for a fresh specialist afterward). As a fan, I understand the opposition to the change -- but it's probably more natural than it appears.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Bad news for traditionalists: the extra-innings runner on second (aka "ghost runner") may return for 2022 after all. Apparently the players "heavily support" it. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/03/mlb-mlbpa-discussing-reinstating-extra-innings-ghost-runner-rule.html
  11. Otto von Ballpark
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    The Reds fire sale continues: Winker and Suarez to Seattle. At least this time, they received some MLB ready players too: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/03/mariners-finalizing-deal-to-acquire-jesse-winker-from-reds.html
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not denying there could be a Coors Field effect, but there's a lot of noise in most examples like this. C.J. Cron on the Rays (2018) .253/.323/.493 wRC+ 124, WAR 2.2
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I collected the current 2022 Fangraphs projections for the players we've acquired and/or sent away the past few days. Because of all the variables, I don't know quite what to make of it yet, but here it is: Player PA or IP fWAR Salary Donaldson 581 3.5 $21 Kiner-Falefa 546 2.1 ~$4.9 Rortvedt 326 1.5 $0.7 Urshela 539 2.0 $6.55 Sanchez 384 1.2 ~$7.9 Gray 160 2.4 $10.7 Garver 497 2.6 $3.1 FWIW, Trevor Story currently projects for 644 PA and 4.5 WAR, at an estimated salary of $21-25 mil.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Fangraphs raised some questions about Story's defensive metrics in their 2022 Top 50 Free Agents write-up: "If there’s cause for concern, it’s on defense, and I’ll be honest: I’m not sure what to think. Per DRS, Story was excellent, but DRS seems to systematically overrate Colorado infield defenders. From 2010-21, DRS thought the Rockies had the best infield defense by roughly 130 runs, 285 runs above average. It also thought they had the worst outfield defense, 205 runs below average. UZR and OAA both think that the Rockies have been good at infield defense — they’ve had a ton of talented defenders — but place them firmly in the fray, not head and shoulders above everyone else. In 2021, DRS thought Story was as good as ever, UZR thought he was slightly above average, and OAA thought he was awful. Which metric teams see as closest to predictive will go a long way towards determining what contract he gets, because a league-average bat at shortstop is valuable, but particularly so if he’s also an elite defender."
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Some people use the triple slash to mean OBP/SLG/OPS. Story's career BA is .272 so that would be pretty wild if it was somehow .310 on the road.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    A Rangers fan tried to look at Story's splits a little closer, earlier this offseason: https://www.lonestarball.com/2021/11/29/22804648/trevor-story-home-road-splits-adjustments-colorado-rockies-coors-field Their conclusion: "Story’s numbers over the last four years would seem to support the notion that his overall road numbers are impacted by him hitting worse at the outset of a road trip, as he’s adjusting to the way pitches are moving at sea level, compared to at elevation."
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    In advance of possible 2023 implementation in MLB, the Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) system will be used in more minor leagues in 2022 -- details below. Full list of 2022 minor league experiments here: https://www.mlb.com/amp/news/mlb-to-test-rules-in-2022-minor-league-season.html
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Previous attempts involved Ruben Sierra, Carl Pavano, and Phil Hughes. Edit to add: and John Ryan Murphy.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Here are some contract predictions for Trevor Story, from the beginning of the offseason: MLB Trade Rumors: 6 years, $126 mil ($21 mil AAV) Ben Clemens (Fangraphs): 5 years, $115 mil ($23 mil AAV) Fangraphs Median Crowdsource: 6 years, $150 mil ($25 mil AAV) Fangraphs Avg Crowdsource: 5.45 years, $131.5 mil ($24.1 mil AAV)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Former Twin Isiah Kiner-Falefa looks like he will be the Yankees starting shortstop this season.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    They traded their mind to NYY, but all signs point to them quickly acquiring another mind via trade or FA.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I was fully prepared to delete this thread, assuming it was low-grade trolling by the title. I guess it may still be low-grade trolling — by the front office!
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Reds fans reactions are apparently a trending topic on Twitter:
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Gray will be 34 years old after the 2023 season. He's not going to be difficult to retain on a short-term contract/extension, if we want him.
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