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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting Stashak has been coming in with the lead almost exclusively, though. Here's Alcala's game log -- he's more often coming in with a deficit: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=alcaljo01&t=p&year=2020#pitching_gamelogs::none Entered 5t --- 0 out d3 9b --- 0 out a5 5b --- 0 out d4 5t --- 0 out d2 11t -2- 0 out tie 4b 12- 0 out d3 6b --- 0 out a1 5b 1-- 2 out d2 7t --- 0 out a7 8t --- 0 out d1 6b --- 0 out d2 8b -23 1 out d2 7b --- 0 out d3
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    An easy way to check is looking at the "Entered" column (second-to-last column) on the B-Ref pitcher game logs. Here's Stashak: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=stashco01&t=p&year=2020#pitching_gamelogs::none Entered 8b --- 0 out a5 7t --- 0 out a4 8t --- 0 out a3 7b --- 0 out a1 4b 1-- 0 out tie 2b --- 0 out a1 8t --- 0 out a3 7t --- 2 out a3 4b --- 2 out a2 It's not mop-up usage, but he's only entered once with a runner on base or in a tie game (and that was the same game, and only in the 4th inning). 6 times he's entered in the 7th inning or later, and only once did he have less than a 3 run lead.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Good post! I'll add that you probably want to use "gmLI" (game-entering leverage index) to judge reliever usage -- that's the leverage when they enter the game. "aLI" (average leverage index) is the average leverage index over all of the PAs they pitch -- so a pitcher who struggles could make his own aLI increase, while a pitcher who succeeds can make his own aLI decrease. In the case of the 2020 Twins, though, both figures seem to give the same rough order, with Alcala/Stashak at the bottom. Looks like B-Ref doesn't include gmLI in the reliever only table, but you'll find it in the overall Pitcher Value table (and starters will just have a blank value in that column): https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2020.shtml#players_value_pitching::15
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Could be, but also I think we may have been overrating Littell a bit. He's still young with an option remaining, but remember he was an iffy enough starting prospect to be dealt for 2 months of Jaime Garcia. And even in his successful bullpen stint with the Twins in 2019, he only had a 7.8 K/9 and 3.62 FIP. He's not a bad pitcher to have around, but in this age of 1 million relievers, every team likely has similar quality bullpen projects and/or access to similar ones every offseason -- they may not have to spend a 40-man spot on another one right now.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually those odds I quoted understated it -- Toronto was 99.2% to make the playoffs before yesterday's game (I was just quoting their odds of 3rd place wild card). Up to 99.3% now. Their magic number is down to 3 -- any combination of 3 Toronto wins or Seattle losses will lock up a spot. With 6 games remaining for both teams, that's about as close to locked up as you can get, without officially being locked up. And I think Toronto is already resting / setting up rotation a bit. Last night Toronto started Matt Shoemaker in the series opener vs the Yankees. Shoemaker had been sidelined for a month, but the Jays want him back for potential postseason usage. After 3 innings, leading 5-1, they followed him with T.J. Zeuch making just his 2nd MLB appearance this year since being recalled. Not exactly resting, but maybe not exactly fighting really hard either? Tonight they are starting Tanner Roark vs Gerrit Cole. Roark, with a 6.41 ERA and 7.71 FIP, is questionable to make the postseason rotation, but Toronto has a few sub-optimal starters to sort through this final week. Again, maybe not a starting assignment we'd see if their playoff aspirations were more in doubt.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    White Sox manager Renteria was ejected late last night for arguing balls & strikes with the same ump who ejected Donaldson (Dan Bellino). Specifically after James McCann objected to a third strike call while batting in the 9th -- although every source I've seen (except White Sox announcers ) suggests that particular pitch was called correctly. Here's the zone for last night's Cleveland - White Sox game: Interesting to visualize how both team's pitchers utilize the zone -- the Cleveland pitchers were definitely attacking the top of the zone, and the outside edge vs RHB.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    That's a good question too, and much more immediate. It would be hard to leave off Garver, but if he doesn't heat up this final week, the fact that Avila brings a patient lefty bat with postseason experience would be tempting. (Albeit, Avila's batting line in the postseason is not very good!) I suppose with a 28 man roster, they could bring all 3. Would be a little unusual, but unless Arraez or Odorizzi needs the spot, it might not be an issue. They could always reassess after each round.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Garver needs reps, but he also needs to eased back into things. And I'm not sure if maximizing catching reps is all that important for Jeffers at this point in the season -- he's had plenty already. Now it seems perfectly valid to balance rest and regular reps for all 3 catching options, so they're all ready in case they are needed.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Fangraphs odds update! Last night the Twins chance at winning the division improved from 10.6% to 16.2.% with the White Sox loss
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    White Sox lose... Yankees trail 10-1 after 6 innings vs Toronto...
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    As I noted in my post above, Toronto is already a virtual lock for a road wild card seed (95.6% at Fangraphs), so they may not push the Yankees as much as we'd hope! The Marlins are a bit more uncertain but still fairly comfortable in the NL mix -- 83.9% postseason odds, and only about a 4.7% chance of getting home field. Obviously these teams are still capable of beating the Yankees on any given day, but if they are looking ahead to the postseason themselves, it might make it a little less likely for the Yankees to have a really bad week. These are not unrealistic outcomes, though! Should be fun scoreboard watching.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for breaking it down! It might not help the Twins that Cleveland has very little to play for -- they're virtually a lock for a road wild card seed (95.7% per Fangraphs). Likewise the Cubs are virtually a lock for their division title too (95.2%). So it might be hard for the White Sox to have a really bad week. (And on the flip side, Cincinnati is still very much on the edge, with only 51.9% playoff odds, so they could be playing hard next weekend against the Twins too.)
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Jays are 95.6% to win a wild card spot, per Fangraphs. They're 4 games ahead of the next team with only 7 to play.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    That's sort of understandable -- those edge cases are hard to distinguish either way. So it's probably not a conscious bias, like "I've given this batter a 3-0 start, I better be generous to the pitcher on the next one" -- but rather, unconsciously your mind kind of expects a strike given the circumstances, which influences how you perceive those edge cases, even if you don't realize it. It's not necessarily a problem -- the game has been played under these conditions for its entire existence so far, so while it is some uncertainty, the players are mostly familiar with its parameters -- but I understand that it might be interesting to see how individual batters and pitchers would adapt without it. (That's been one of the points I've read about the robo-ump trials too, that is has been calling some strikes that no one expected -- likely pitches that just clip the front or back of the three-dimensional zone.)
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Sounds like you'll also be Brewers fan -- they play the Reds for a 3 game series starting tonight. The Reds and Brewers are in a virtual tie (with San Francisco) for the 8th and final playoff spot in the NL, but the Reds have an advantage in that they've already played 2 more games than their competitors -- Milwaukee and San Fran don't get any off days this week AND they each have to play a doubleheader on Friday (against some decent teams in St. Louis and San Diego, respectively). Looks like the Twins might miss Bauer -- he's scheduled to start Wednesday vs Milwaukee. We could possibly get Mahle, Castillo, and Gray all on regular rest, though, and they've all been solid this year.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    B-Ref gives us a 23.5% chance at the division; Fangraphs, 10.7%. (Does make me wonder if B-Ref is correctly handling the tiebreaker?) If we win out (5-0), we'd need the White Sox to finish 3-4 or worse. If we lose just one game (4-1), we'd need the White Sox to finish 2-5 or worse. It's not easy, but it's definitely easier the more games we win! (As are most things, except high draft picks. )
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I have to admit, I haven't watch much ESPN in my adult life. I'm guessing it could have also been dumb when I watched it as a kid because I didn't know any better.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    It is my understanding that, during the trials in the Atlantic League and Arizona Fall League, the home plate ump provided backup for the automated system. So if some pitch didn't communicate a signal to him right away, whether it's a measurement or delivery error, the ump could call it himself. I don't know how frequently that happened or what the official criteria would be, but it seems like a reasonable framework. I don't know to what degree umpire strikezone skills would erode under that setup, but as long as they're not Frank Drebin and such instances are infrequent, I can't imagine it being a big deal. Maybe they'd have some kind of overrule/challenge system for pitches too, although like I said, you'd want to do that carefully so players and teams aren't constantly trying to appeal to that process. I read that same article about umpire accuracy/bias too. It was interesting, but I was disappointed that they completely ignored the margin of error. Some number of those "mistakes" were probably imperceptible to the human eye -- maybe millimeters from the box on TV -- and while that doesn't mean the ump is necessary right and the machine is wrong (unless it's within the machine's measurement margin of error), that would be more interesting to me than a flat error rate. Could explain some of the bias too.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    That's probably true of most national TV sports coverage these days, and it's probably due more to the quality and depth of local / online sources of coverage than anything else.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    While the Twins were in the wild card race late those two seasons, so were a bunch of other teams. And those Twins teams weren't particularly distinguished -- the 2015 club was propped up by a flukey May and mediocre otherwise, and the 2017 club was middling (and a seller at the deadline) and really only separated itself from the pack at the very end of the season. They never looked like a particularly safe bet to stay relevant through some future date. And to be fair, ESPN Sunday Night Baseball serves *both* leagues, and the schedule is usually set reasonably far in advance. There are also other considerations like travel -- maybe the Twins were under strong consideration at some point those seasons but other factors won out. I won't deny that ESPN prefers to air games involving bigger media markets, which counts against the Twins twice because we're mid-market ourselves and with the unbalanced schedule, the Twins play the bulk of their games vs small/mid-markets CHW, CLE, DET, and KCR. But even so, it's not surprising we didn't play on Sunday night from 2011-2019.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    White Sox have the tiebreaker advantage, so we are effectively 3 games back of them. If we win out, White Sox would only need to go 4-3 this week to win the division. Also, the Tigers are more or less eliminated, but the Reds are very much still in the NL race. They might be pretty motivated next weekend.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Am I wrong, or is the rotation already set up? off day today (Monday) Maeda on regular rest tomorrow (Tuesday), to set him up to start game 1 of the playoffs next Tuesday Hill on regular rest Wednesday, so he is fully rested for bullpen or substitute starter duty beginning with game 1 next Tuesday day off Thursday Pineda on Friday, to set him up to start game 2 next Wednesday Berrios on Saturday, to set him up to start game 3 next Thursday Odorizzi/Dobnak/Bailey can take care of the final regular season game next Sunday, vying for a pen assignment in round 1 and potential starting assignment in rounds 2+. Also any relievers who need a tune-up can pitch on Sunday too (day off the next day before the playoffs begin).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Bat... man?
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I just posted this in another thread too, but there are 3 days off between the first round and the division series (or 4 if you sweep the first round). So Maeda could go game 1 of both series. With no off days in the division series, that could be important — your game 1 DS starter is the only one with a chance at 2 starts in the series if necessary (game 5 would be on short rest though).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    No off days within each round (until the World Series) but if we can make it through the first round, there are 3 days off before the division series starts in the bubble. Best of 3 should make for some interesting roster decisions too — Berrios or Hill in the bullpen?
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