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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not really interested in a generalized "baseball is in decline" debate, sorry. The NFL is a very different animal. 17 games a season. It's literally only ~51 hours a year, almost all of them on Sundays, to watch every single snap for one team, leaving plenty of time for consuming a meaningful amount of other games around the league. Doing the same for a single MLB team would be, what, ~500 hours a year? Spread across mostly weeknights? Invariably, baseball (and to a similar extent, basketball and hockey) needs to be consumed in a much different way, across several different methods. Live out-of-market video just isn't as important in that equation, which is why MLB.TV exists and is much cheaper than, say, NBA League Pass (or the non-existent NFL out-of-market streaming package in USA). Can MLB improve? Obviously, that's why we're talking about in-market streaming. But any consumer profile will likely show there is a lot more overlap in Minnesota between Twins fans and Wild fans and Wolves fans, than there is between Twins fans and the level of baseball diehard that it would take to get invested in a random Braves/Padres live video stream. Of course the league packages would still exist. And there would be bundling opportunities, where they could add MLB.TV onto the in-market service or vice-versa.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Every streaming service is some combination of bundled content, from ESPN+ to Netflix etc. Bundling Twins with Wolves and Wild is pretty straightforward by that standard, and a monthly option effectively lets the consumer unbundle them rather easily, if they want to save a few bucks. There pretty much has to be a monthly option. A lot of fans will pay $20 to see their team in a pennant race but just won't shell out $100+ for the season. And once there are monthly and annual options, it makes it more complicated to further divide that by league.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, unlike air travel and hotels, consumers have never had the option to separate in-market Twins broadcasts from in-market Wolves or Wild in the way that you are describing. Also, you're making this way more complicated than it is. Sportsnet Now in Canada doesn't separate Blue Jays, Raptors, and Maple Leafs, but they offer a monthly plan for $15/month and an annual plan at $150/year. So if you just want the Blue Jays, subscribe to the monthly plan for 6 months and you'll pay $90 for the season. You can ignore the Raptors and Maple Leafs if the seasons overlap. Until I hear otherwise, I assume similar monthly/annual options would be part of in-market streaming in the USA too.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    The lack of in-market streaming is archaic. But I'm not so sure that market delineation in general is archaic, or that it is even bad for the consumer. Most fans in Minnesota have little or no interest in non-Twins regular season games, and I don't think they'd want to pay for them. I think a lot of Twins fans scattered around the country likewise don't have much interest in their "local" team either. Much remains to be seen here, of course -- maybe they'll wind up with a plan where fans in Seattle can just purchase a Twins package, that would be fine by me and would satisfy your requirements as well. But I think it still makes sense to package it separately from the league package.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    You are correct, Mauer singled. And had he been credited with his double, he may well have scored on the consecutive singles that followed. Unfortunately, the first Yankees batter in the bottom of the inning homered, so reversing the call still may not have resulted in a Twins win -- just a longer, perhaps even more painful Twins loss.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Dodgers pitching update: they pulled Buehler in the 4th yesterday at 76 pitches, but he was getting rocked that inning and they were facing a potential 3-0 series deficit. So I think that one makes sense. I thought they made a questionable move later -- still down 3 runs, they used Evan Phillips in the 7th and 8th innings, and he's probably the last guy in their 9-man pen. (Phillips was left off both the WC and DS rosters, and he was their only reliever who didn't pitch in game 1 or 2 of the NLCS). Phillips managed to not allow a run, getting 5 outs around 3 baserunners (2 stranded by the next reliever), but with their season basically on the line, and with a fully rested pen after an off day, it seemed like a dangerous time to try eating innings. But it worked out for them, so what do I know?
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Oh yeah. Don't know how I forgot that, it was big news at the time. You're right that it was unusual, although less so considering Urías was going on short rest and there was no DH (so he wasn't going deep no matter what, and pinch hitters were going to be in play early and often).
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    This could be the last day of the year with two MLB games. Enjoy it if you can! Saturday is still a potential two-game day, but it will require the Red Sox and Astros to split the next two ALCS games to force a Game 7, as well as requiring the Dodgers to win one of the next 2 in LA to force an NLCS Game 6.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I guess it will be Atlanta's turn to throw a bullpen game now. Analyzing Braves' pitching plan for Game 4 Former Twins farmhand Huascar Ynoa could make his NLCS debut today.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Iowa is in a tough place now because there's no real incentive for those 6 teams to relinquish it as broadcast territory. If the Twins gave up Iowa right now, for example, all that would happen is more Iowans would subscribe to MLB.TV, but the Twins would only see 1/30th of that extra revenue as it is split equally among all teams. On the other hand, direct in-market streaming would give the Twins incentive to actually be available in Iowa at that $20/month price point, otherwise they receive nothing from that territory.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Beyond what it means for fans, I wonder what it means for MLB team revenue disparities. From the report: To me, this sounds just like the current cable model, where teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers etc. make a lot more money than, say, the Twins. If this just shifts the cable money to streaming, nothing much changes from the status quo, I suppose. Although this could be a good opportunity to lessen that disparity somehow, with a more equitable revenue split.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Reports have mentioned that the price of this service would vary by market. Part of that could be what NBA and NHL teams are available to partner with -- it might be cheaper in Wisconsin, for example, without an NHL team. (Or maybe the Wild and/or Blackhawks could try to expand their reach?) But in a place like Minnesota, for example, I doubt they'd let you separate Twins and Wolves and Wild. The idea behind the partnership would be for each sport to gain viewers and stability from the others. You could still effectively subscribe to just one sport's season on a monthly plan, although you'd still get the other sports if the seasons overlap. That would provide viewers incentive to watch the other sports and maybe even sign up for an annual plan instead, at a lower per-month rate.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    They could offer a combined package, at a higher rate (maybe a slight combo discount). But I think they'd also want to keep them separate, as most of the time, fans will just want one or the other at their lower separate rates. (Plus MLB.TV has ~20 years of branding as an out-of-market service already, and the new in-market service may need to be co-branded with NBA and NHL.) And with monthly or even weekly in-market options, you'd have the flexibility to add the Mariners in-market service just when they played the Twins, at a cheaper overall cost than paying for in-market the whole season. Keep in mind, for any random 3-game series in a 162-game season, you may not even be in town or otherwise available to watch them.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Sportsnet and TSN have monthly options in Canada, and of course MLB.TV, NBA League Pass, and ESPN+ all have monthly options here in the USA too. I don't see any reason why there wouldn't be a monthly subscription option for this new service too, just at a higher per-month rate than the annual option. If the leagues work it out individually, an "annual plan" isn't as marketable, and their subscriber bases would be much more volatile.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    The Dodgers SP usage seems fairly reaosnable / aggressive, so far. Wild card game - Scherzer disagreed with the hook, but he was inefficient, at 94 pitches in the 5th inning (had a huge bullpen to back him up too) NLDS Game 1 - Buehler into the 7th, 99 pitches Game 2 - Urías pulled after 5 IP, but Dodgers had a 6-1 lead with a rested pen before an off-day (and an eye toward a short-rest start later) Game 3 - Scherzer 7 IP, 110 pitches Game 4 - Buehler started on short rest Game 5 - Urías started on short rest, Scherzer closed it out NLCS Game 1 - Scherzer had only 1 day rest since his save, and Buehler/Urías would have been short rest again, so they gave Scherzer an extra day and decided to use their 9 relievers in a bullpen game Game 2 - Scherzer pulled at 79 pitches in the 5th but this time, he endorsed the move (see tweet below), and they used Urías on his throw day to pitch the 8th inning too.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I'm guessing that in-market streaming may have a comparable cost as the current out-of-market price ($130 per season, or ~$22 per month). And with greater demand, there'd be less need to offer in-market promos like 50% off or free T-Mobile subscriptions. And that would explain why MLB would want to keep in-market and out-of-market in separate packages -- it would be easier to get consumers to sign up for one or the other at a lower price than force them to get both combined at a notably higher price. (Although they could offer some kind of combination discount for those interested.)
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    That's my guess. Sportsnet and TSN (Canadian sports channels) both offer this with their standalone streaming packages, each starting at $15-20 per month or $150-$200 per year, respectively. One complicating factor is that Sportsnet has all Blue Jays games, but Raptors and Maple Leafs games are apparently split between Sportsnet and TSN. So $20/month for all Twins, Wild, and Wolves games could arguably be a better deal.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Most famously, Rosario hit a 2-run HR in the first inning of the 2017 AL Wild Card game vs NY. He drew a walk in the third inning too, as part of a rally that tied the game before we let it slip away again. 2019 ALDS, Rosario was effective overall at the plate but we were unable to capitalize. He went 0-for-5 in game 1 and stranded a few runners. GIDP in his first PA of game 2; by his second PA single, the Twins already trailed 8-0. Game 3, he collected a leadoff double and single with a runner on base but was stranded both times. Then he led off the 8th with a HR to get us on the board and cut the deficit to 3-1; sadly, we'd go on to lose 5-1. Maybe Rosario purposely avoided the home run in the 8th for Atlanta last night, feeling a single and a series of dramatic advancements would better spark a rally.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    They could roll it all into MLBTV, but then the price of MLBTV would jump quite a bit. I think it makes sense to leave the out-of-market product as-is, and then have a new in-market product. Especially if they use variable pricing by market, and they can effectively bundle with in-market NHL/NBA streams too.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    As it is proposed here, it wouldn't affect current MLB.TV usage at all.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I saw that in the MLB statement too. Hard to read too much into it yet -- I suspect that they may exclude 40-man roster guys in the minors, who already receive elevated pay and benefits. Of course, we have no idea how this housing benefit will be structured. There could be two separate components: arrangement assistance, plus a separate stipend to pay for it. Maybe all players will be eligible for the arrangement assistance, but only non-40-man guys get the stipend, etc. I expect it will all vary by city too, as some clubs offer different housing benefits already.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Isn't that Keon Broxton? He obviously didn't work out, but it's not like he was destined to be worse than the rest of his peers in this group. Here's the notable RHB backup CF from the 2020-2021 MLB FA tracker: Michael A. Taylor Marisnick Almora Danny Santana DeShields Billy Hamilton Same criteria, but 2019-2020: Maybin Guillermo Heredia Broxton Gorkys Hernandez Lagares Billy Hamilton again
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, the flip side of Rosario's trip around the bases is that the Dodgers messed up defensively twice -- an offline throw from left on the tag, then a two-hopper from shallow right on the score. The Dodgers also likely messed up the next play, when Albies scored the tying run. Betts had a little bobble in center, then the relay throw beat Albies to the plate but was a little too far up the line for the catcher to handle, I guess. (Albies didn't even touch the plate on his initial slide, but rolled over and touched it after the ball had squirted past.) Video here: Austin Riley's game-tying double None of the plays individually were terribly glaring defensive miscues -- nothing booted, no crazy overthrows, etc. -- but they all combined to give away the Dodgers lead in the 8th, setting up Rosario's walk-off in the 9th.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Wow, Eddie Rosario. The focus is on the walk-off hit in the 9th, but that was a heck of a sequence in the 8th. Complete video here: Rosario's trip around the bases Down 2 runs, Rosario hit a leadoff single (off a LHP, no less). Tags up and advances to second on a fairly routine fly to left. Then scoring from second on a one-out single to right, with a great slide at the plate. Baseball logic says he shouldn't have attempted to tag or score on those plays. But he did both, successfully, and it proved to be the difference, really.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Tonight's ALCS Game 3 shifts back to FS1. The next free game on broadcast FOX would be ALCS Game 7 if necessary on Saturday Oct. 23. Beyond that, the whole World Series will be on broadcast FOX too.
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